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BUSINESS COUNCIL of MONGOLIA
NewsWire
www.bcmongolia.org
info@bcmongolia.org
Issue 131, August 13 2010
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS:
Business:
 PM told MEC ready to start work at Khusuut coal mine;
 NEA to appeal Khan Resources case verdict;
 Khan Resources says international community watching progress of case;
 Friedland’s 'trillions' claim creates ripples;
 Hunnu Coal boss lists opportunities for Mongolian coal;
 Oyu Tolgoi LLC to start training workers on September 1;
 Hunnu Coal starts trial mining;
 National Life Insurance LLC offers new pension plan and health coverage;
 Petro Matad hits hydrocarbons, “but you never can tell”;
 Rio seeks JV opportunities with Chinese companies;
 Despite turnaround, Rio still has problems;
 ING's net profit soars.
Economy:
 Mongolia plans for hi-tech, multipolar economy;
 Social and economic data for July;
 NASDAQ OMX submits bid to develop Mongolian Stock Exchange;
 Fraser survey keeps Mongolia among least attractive mining destinations;
 Economic potential of livestock cannot be ignored, says Minister;
 Foreign firms show interest in infrastructure projects;
 92% of allocated SME loans distributed nationwide;
 New pension system being developed;
 MP wants personal income tax to contribute more to budget;
 Outstanding loans rise 3.1% m-o-m, 15.2% y-o-y;
 China’s copper demand “unstoppable”, says Chilean miner;
 Where's the copper to come from to meet future demand?
 Indonesia in talks with miners over new mining law;
 Russia grain export ban sparks price fears;
 Russia’s grain ban is the wrong response;
 China and the IMF: Getting away with manipulation;
 China's calculated yen for the Japanese yen;
 China's double gold game;
 China cracks down on energy use, shuts 2,000 factories;
 China needs slower, better growth;
 China shows further signs of slowing:
 China’s trade surplus widens further.
Politics:
 Millennium Development Goals will not be reached in stipulated time;
 Minister appeals for restraint over Chinese company’s activity;
 Prime Minister urges people to come up with ideas;
 Elbegdorj invited to join World Economic Forum’s council on climate change;
 Tourism boss wants guides to be more well-informed;
 PM orders USD250,000 for Taishir water power plant;
 Strong Canadian participation in farm show co-sponsored by Embassy;
 Prosecution agency turns 80;
 Mayor plans untreated water for toilets, better street lights;
 New buildings for both major parties;
 U.S. Ambassador attends ceremony at Amarbayasgalant Monastery;
 North Korea offers ginseng to pay part of Czech debt;
 U.S. ventures into troubled Asian waters.
*Click on titles to link to articles.
BUSINESS
PM TOLD MEC READY TO START WORK AT KHUSUUT COAL MINE
Mongolia Energy Corporation (MEC) has told Prime Minister S.Batbold that with the feasibility study
completed and its reserve estimated, the Khushuut coal mine will be operational by next October.
Not just mining, but its wash plant and enrichment factory will also start working. ―Some civil
movements and local people were against the coal mine operation, but all differences have now
been resolved in a spirit of harmony,‖ the Governor of Khovd province has said, expressing relief
and happiness that the work at the mine would help change the face of Khovd.
Over 800 workers are employed at the mine, and over 310 km of road and bridges are planned to be
built. According to the Government resolution, the concession agreement will be used to solve the
coal export issue. The mine has 85 million tons of coal and roughly half of this is coking coal. This
reserve estimate applies only to its studied area. There might be other huge reserve in other areas.
In June 2010, MEC awarded a six-year, USD232 million contract to Leighton Asia to develop and
operate the mine. Leighton will carry out all mining activities including planning, drilling, transport
and handling of coal. Annual production will be 0.5 mt in the first year, rising to 8 mt by fourth
year. The estimated mine life is 19 years. The mine is spread over 600 hectares and the total cost
of developing it is expected to reach USD202 million in the first two years.
Exploration work was carried out by the China National Administration of Coal Geology. The
company is planning to conduct further exploration to measure additional coal reserves. The open-
pit method will be used to extract coal. Diesel-powered hydraulic excavators will be used. Track
dozers will be used for material movement and overburden dump maintenance. Front-end loaders
will also be used for pit clean-up and coal loading.
MEC is planning to construct a 1,100t/h coal preparation plant to process raw coal. The USD60
million plant will produce coking coal, middling and rejects. It will be operational by the third year
of operation. Until the plant is constructed, the coal will be processed using a dry screening
process.
Source: Mongolia Energy Corporation
NEA TO APPEAL KHAN RESOURCES CASE VERDICT
The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has chosen to appeal an administrative court`s verdict on July 19
that the NEA's decision to invalidate the mining license held by Khan`s joint venture unit, Central
Asian Uranium Co (CAUC), was illegal and invalid. "We are very disappointed that the NEA has
chosen to appeal a very clear and definitive ruling of the court. We trust the court will deal with
the matter quickly and uphold the ruling in favor of CAUC," said Mr. Grant Edey, president and CEO
of Khan Resources.
CAUC is a joint venture between Khan, the Russian company Priargunsky and the government of
Mongolia. Their chief license is for Khan's Dornod uranium deposit, a former Russian open-pit
uranium mine in north eastern Mongolia. It is believed to have resources of 22,000 tons. In April,
the NEA canceled the mining and exploration licenses of two of Khan's units claiming specific
violations, prompting the Canadian company to challenge the decision in Mongolian courts. It is now
unclear whether Khan will continue the process of re-registering its licenses for both its units in the
country, as stated previously.
The Dornod deposit was coincidentally also the highly sought-after prize of a takeover battle last
year for Khan between Russian state uranium miner ARMZ, the world`s fifth largest uranium
producer, and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNCC), China`s official agent seeking
offshore uranium sources.
Source: Khan Resources
KHAN RESOURCES SAYS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WATCHING PROGRESS OF CASE
Mr. O.Enkhbayar, Director of Khan Resources Inc. in Mongolia, has said that the company expects
the Nuclear Energy Agency to re-register its licenses soon, now that the City Administrative Court
has ruled in two separate cases that the agency‘s cancellation of these licenses was illegal. He said
the progress of the dispute was being watched by the entire international investor community.
Khan Resources owns 58% shares in CAUC LLC, with the Mongolian Government and the Russian
State-owned company ARMZ equally sharing the remaining 42%. However, Mr. Enkhbayar said,
neither ―has invested a single MNT‖ in the uranium project in Mardai in Dornod province, where
extraction has not begun because of the low price of uranium. Khan Resources had been holding the
license since 1996, with approval of the National Security Council and the Government, and has
scrupulously observed all laws and regulations. The government of Mongolia has claimed the grant
of license was its share of the investment, and ARMZ has said its share was in the infrastructure in
place since the time when the Soviet Russian Government worked the deposits. However, most of
the facilities and equipment have been irreparably damaged in the intervening years of inactivity
and are presently worth nothing or very little.
Source: Zuunii Medee
FRIEDLAND‟S „TRILLIONS‟ CLAIM CREATES RIPPLES
Confusion surrounding reports about Oyu Tolgoi, Ivanhoe Mines' colossal joint venture with Rio
Tinto, has sent ripples throughout the global financial community. A PowerPoint presentation by
Ivanhoe Mines chairman Robert Friedland last week at a miners‘ conference in Australia said
USD16,078,743,199 was the after-tax net present value (NPV) figure for Oyu Tolgoi based on recent
metal prices, but Mr. Friedland also said the figure could rise to "trillions".
An Ivanhoe spokesman later clarified that the project indeed contained an estimated USD1 trillion
worth of metal in situ, but corrected widespread reports and indicated the NPV was USD16 billion
plus.
Source: AAP
HUNNU COAL BOSS LISTS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONGOLIAN COAL
Hunnu Coal chairman Matthew Wood has echoed the warning of Ivanhoe Mines Chairman Robert
Friedland that Mongolia could kill the Australian coal industry. He said the warning could become
reality as South and Middle Gobi coking and thermal coal begin shipped to Japan and Korea within a
few years. Australia-listed Hunnu Coal is busy advancing several promising Mongolian thermal and
coking coal projects with minimal start up costs.
Mr. Wood can see some shocks ahead for Australia‘s leading export industry. ―I think Australia is
going to find it hard to compete with coal 600 kilometers from Beijing with labor at tenth of the
price,‖ he has said. ―Mongolia has a highly supportive government and has abolished the stupid
taxes Australia is now contemplating. Australia has got some problems.‖
He noted some other advantages of mining coal in Mongolia. ―Australian mines are getting deeper
and older. The easy, cheaper coal is gone. These deposits in Mongolia are open cut from surface –
they haven‘t even been developed yet, the best years are still coming.‖
The Mongolian government is working hard to expand the coal industry and announced major
railway investment plans last month. Mr. Wood said one of the plans was a link from the giant
Tavan Tolgoi coking coal field in the South Gobi province, where Hunnu Coal has projects, all the
way up to northern Mongolia where it can link up to Russia‘s Trans Siberian railway line. From
there, the coal is railed out for export through Vladivostok on the east coast of Russia. ―That‘s a
very short boat ride to Korea and Japan,‖ Mr. Wood said.
The Japanese and Koreans are extremely keen to get access to Mongolian coal ―so it‘s not just
about China; Mongolian coal will be seaborne and that is a real threat to Australia‖. Mr. Wood said,
―These things aren‘t going to happen next month, they are not going to happen next year but
people in Queensland will be competing against Mongolian coal well and truly in five to ten years.‖
Source: MiningNews.net
OYU TOLGOI LLC TO START TRAINING WORKERS ON SEPTEMBER 1
The Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science recently signed a memorandum of understanding
with Oyu Tolgoi LLC on providing training to around 2,500 people who will work in the mines to
begin operation in about three years from now. The first phase of the training starts on September
1 and will offer 10 courses in different areas of work for altogether 1,000 people. The training will
be held at different centers in Nalaikh, Darkhan, Dornod, Govisumber, Dornogovi, Umnugovi,
Selenge, and Khovd. Intending trainees have to be over 24, and must have completed secondary
school. The company will bear all costs of the training. Those who pass the course with credit will
be given priority when jobs are offered in Oyu Tolgoi.
Source: Udriin Sonin
HUNNU COAL STARTS TRIAL MINING
Hunnu Coal has started trial mining at the Unst Khudag coal mine. The trial open cut operation
would produce an initial supply of coal for bulk test work, and for delivery to potential offtake
partners for independent test work. Hunnu said in a statement that the trial mine would also
deliver important geotechnical and hydrological data, which would be used in the modeling of a
much larger up-scaled open cut mine. Offtake agreements were currently being negotiated with
both Mongolian and Chinese thermal coal users, said Hunnu.
Meanwhile, an extensive drilling program has recently started with the aim of generating an initial
Joint Ore Reserves Committee (Jorc) resource during the coming months. The Unst Khudag project
has an exploration target of between 250 million tons and 500 million tons, and coal analysis has
revealed a high quality thermal coal product. Two drilling rigs were now operating on the current
drilling site, with further drilling rigs being sourced to fast-track the exploration program.
Earlier in the week, the company said the results of the recently completed exploration drilling
program at Unst Khudag and surrounding licenses had been ―extremely encouraging‖. A total of 34
drill holes were completed, 28 located on the existing mining license and six others on the
adjoining exploration license.
Source: www.miningweekly.com, Hunnu Coal
NATIONAL LIFE INSURANCE LLC OFFERS NEW PENSION PLAN AND HEALTH COVERAGE
The National Life Insurance LLC has introduced two new products. With its voluntary retirement
plan, Mongolians now have the opportunity to be insured in two kinds of retirement plans. The first
of these is the existing compulsory retirement plan where the premium is paid into the social
insurance fund, while the second aims to set up an endowment fund for insured individuals. The
new plan is not meant to compete with the State retirement plan, but targets those who are
outside it. It offers greater choice to people on choosing the age from when they wish to draw
pension. Employers can offer this plan to motivate their employees to work longer.
The insurance company, the only one providing life insurance in Mongolia, has also developed a
family health insurance scheme to help people tide over the ever-increasing costs of medical
treatment. The scheme covers accidents, illness, hospitalization or surgery. The company has listed
the following salient features of the scheme:
Worldwide coverage - 24 hours a day/ 7 days a week/ 365 days a year.
 Maximum annual cover is USD 1,000,000.
 The client can choose the doctor and the hospital, in or outside Mongolia.
 Coverage includes both outpatient and in patient expenses, yearly check-ups and local
ambulance service.
 Those opting for a high-end product will get worldwide emergency medical and travel
assistance service from International SOS Medica to the limit of USD 1,000,000.
 Service utilized at the company‘s recommended hospitals can be paid for by direct billing.
In all other cases reimbursement will cover 80% of treatment cost, subject to the annual
limit.
 Every policy will be valid for one year and terms are flexible.
Three options are presently available:
 Platinum plan – Worldwide coverage and overall annual limit is USD 1,000,000.
 Gold plan – Worldwide coverage, excluding USA & Canada, except in emergency cases.
Maximum annual limit is USD 1,000,000.
 Silver plan – coverage area is only Asian countries and annual limit is USD 300,000.
Source: www.nationallifedaatgal.com
PETRO MATAD HITS HYDROCARBONS, “BUT YOU NEVER CAN TELL”
Petro Matad has hit hydrocarbons with its first well in Mongolia. The company has struck oil at its
Davsan Tolgol-1 wildcat well in Block XX where good reservoir quality is indicated by fast drilling
breaks through all sandstone and conglomerate intervals. Petro Matad CEO Douglas McGay has said,
―To have achieved success on the first well has been both a significant achievement for our
company and Mongolia, and also a tribute to our technical team.‖
The company‘s shares had been rising steadily before the drilling started and then rose further with
the successful outcome. But you never can tell. Even with great advances in technology the
industry-wide success for wildcats is reckoned to be one out of six wells drilled. Mongolia is real
frontier territory. Squeezed between China and Russia, Mongolia is twice the size of the UK and
France combined yet very sparsely populated. It is a country of climatic extremes, with a short
drilling season, creating some major logistical and technical problems for drilling crews.
We do not know as yet how much oil has been discovered. Provisional resource estimates for the
DT-1 well were put at 122 million barrels. The significance of the strike, however, as Mr. McGay has
said, is that it has de-risked the whole block, which is home to a further 14 prospects and where
several further wells are planned.
Source: Oilbarrel.com
RIO SEEKS JV OPPORTUNTIES WITH CHINESE COMPANIES
While CEO Tom Albanese thinks that Rio Tinto‘s strategic focus on large, long-life, low-cost assets
would serve the company well in ―increasingly volatile‖ markets, its CFO, Mr. Guy Elliott, has said
that Rio was also constantly scanning the globe for acquisition opportunities. "In a volatile
environment, it's often easier to obtain greater capacity through buying, rather than building."
Mr. Elliott said that Rio Tinto would look to identify possible small- and medium-sized acquisition
opportunities, and would also be open to "innovative" joint-venture opportunities, particularly with
Chinese companies. "All opportunities will be assessed through our proven and rigorous processes,
and Rio Tinto will remain focused on value accretion, and not on growth for growth's sake."
Source: www.miningweekly.com
DESPITE TURNAROUND, RIO STILL HAS PROBLEMS
Rio Tinto, the diversified miner worst hit by the financial crisis, surprised the market last week with
the strength of its six-month earnings, debt reduction and accelerated capital spending. That
followed similarly bullish half year results from rivals Anglo American and Xstrata. But despite the
turnaround in Rio's fortunes, its exposure to the oversupplied aluminum market and a legal wrangle
over its Mongolian copper investment should keep investors' enthusiasm in check.
Rising commodity prices explained most of the jump in Rio's underlying first-half earnings. Net debt
tumbled to USD12 billion on June 30 from USD39 billion a year ago. The company restored its
interim dividend. And it is no longer neglecting growth. Planned capital expenditure of USD9 billion
for 2011 will be USD1 billion above the 2008 peak and 50% more than this year's USD6 billion.
Higher revenues should fall faster to the bottom line thanks to last year's USD2.5 billion of cost
cuts, but further productivity gains will be hard to achieve. Rio is sensitive to rising energy prices
because of its electricity-intensive output of aluminum, the biggest contributor to earnings after
iron ore.
Meanwhile, Rio is short of growth beyond iron ore. It is reluctant to increase aluminum capacity
while the market is oversupplied. Aluminum prices, down 16% during the second quarter, remain
under pressure. Infrastructure bottlenecks limit expansion of its Australian coal operations. A legal
dispute over how much Rio can increase its indirect stake in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi, potentially one
of the world's biggest copper mines, clouds its copper prospects as grades fall at existing mines.
Source: The Wall Street Journal Asia
ING‟S NET PROFIT SOARS
Dutch financial-services company ING Groep NV on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected
jump in second-quarter net profit, as strong results at its banking arm offset a weaker performance
for insurance. ING, the Netherlands' biggest financial company by market capitalization, posted a
net profit of USD1.44 billion for the three months ended June 30, beating analyst expectations.
The company, which was bailed out twice by the Dutch government during the global financial crisis
and still has to repay €5 billion of State aid, said commercial growth "gained pace", particularly at
its bank, and that "market conditions further improved".
Source: The Wall Street Journal Asia
ECONOMY
MONGOLIA PLANS FOR HI-TECH, MULTIPOLAR ECONOMY
Mr. B.Ganbat, a departmental head in the National Development and Innovation Committee, says a
proper development strategy for Mongolia must have provision for setting up high-tech industry.
The present situation, where the country exports only raw and unprocessed output from the mining
and agriculture sectors, keeps the economy vulnerable to unpredictable pressures. At present, over
90% of Mongolia‘s exports are produced with low technology and this has to change. Value has to
be added to raw output if more wealth is to be generated. Parliament has approved the
government policy on how to develop a high technology industrial sector and a transformation of
the economy will follow. Exclusive dependence on mining will give way to a multipolar economy.
This will need financial institutions with new orientation and the government is working on
establishing a State-owned entity likely to be called High Technology, Innovation, and Investment
Corporation to help develop a knowledge-based economy. The necessary human resources are being
prepared at the National Center of Nano-technology in the National University of Mongolia, at the
Food and Biotechnology Center in the Mongolian University of Science and Technology, at the
biomedical unit in the Medical Science University, and in Jonon University. He stressed that nothing
will happen overnight as the example of other countries shows, but he dismissed doubts that this is
beyond Mongolia‘s economic or intellectual capacity, and suggestions that the country should
instead import technology.
Knowledge and information are freely accessible in a globalized world, and Mongolia will restrict
imports to what it cannot design locally, for many possible reasons. Its small population will be a
helpful factor in the development of high technology, Mr. Ganbat felt, and added that the Autumn
session of Parliament is likely to discuss the subject further.
Source: Onoodor
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA FOR JULY
The National Statistics Office has released the following data:
Consumer price index
The national consumer price index dropped 2.8 percent in July against June, but was 8.3 percent
more than at the end of 2009 and 9.8 percent more year-over-year. The fall during the month was
mainly due to a 6.5 percent decrease in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Unemployment
The number of active job hunters, as registered at the Labor and Welfare Service Divisions in the
provinces and in Ulaanbaatar, reached 39,176 at the end of July, falling 3.7 per cent against the
figure for 2009.
Government budget, tax collection
The General Government Budget (GGB) showed a deficit of MNT129.4 billion at the end of the first
seven months of 2010, MNT152.2 billion less than in the same period last year. The current account,
however, showed a surplus of MNT198.5 billion.
Tax revenue increased 65.5 percent, with a 330 percent rise in windfall profit tax receipts, 230
percent rise in corporate income tax and 629 percent rise in value added tax.
Share trading
Some 2.3 million shares valued at MNT3.1 billion were traded at the Mongolian Stock Exchange in
the 20 trading days in July.
Foreign trade
Total turnover of trade with 120 countries in the first seven months of the year reached USD
3,207.7 million, 59.7 percent more than in the same period last year. Exports rose 66.8 percent and
imports 53.6 percent, with the deficit of USD130.7 million standing 20.3 percent below the
corresponding figure in 2009.
Industrial output
Total industrial output in the first seven months of 2010 rose 15.9 percent (at 2005 constant prices)
over that in the same period last year.
Social insurance and allowances
Of the total 501,400 employees covered by social insurance at the end of July, 40.7 percent worked
for the government and the rest for private establishments. The total amount disbursed as pension
was MNT194.1 billion, of which retirement pension accounted for 73.0 percent, disability pension
for 12.9 percent, breadwinner loss pension for 7.3 percent, and military pension for 6.8 percent.
MNT14.6 billion was paid in social welfare allowances to 55,700 people, 4.7 per cent more than on
2009, with the amount rising 0.7 per cent. MNT174.7 billion has so far this year been given to 2.5
million people from the Human Development Fund.
Construction
Domestic entities were responsible for executing 91.7 percent of the construction and installation
work altogether worth MNT84.8 billion.
Passengers and freight
The railway transported more passengers and more freight than last year, and as a result revenue
increased 27.9 percent. Airlines transported 27.6 percent more passengers and 22.7 percent more
freight. Revenue increased 17.8 percent.
Source: Montsame
NASDAQ OMX SUBMITS BID TO DEVELOP MONGOLIAN STOCK EXCHANGE
A consortium comprising Mosdaq of Mongolia and NASDAQ OMX, the world‘s largest exchange
company with trading, technology and public company service capability spanning 6 continents, is
among those bidding to be chosen to manage and coordinate the work of the proposed Mongolian
Stock Exchange joint venture. The Government expects the JV to substantially increase both the
volume and worth of stocks traded at the exchange, to raise total market capitalization to 46% of
GDP, and to ensure that at least 10% of all capital investment in Mongolia is channeled through the
stock exchange.
Following submission of tender material to the State Property Committee, two representatives of
the consortium – Mr. Ulf Carlsson, General Manager, NASDAQ OMX North Asia & Japan, and Mr. J.
Erdenebat of Mosdaq – answered media questions earlier in the week. Asked if it is reasonable to
expect the joint venture to perform as an international exchange without corresponding changes in
the country‘s economic scene and legal environment, Mr. Carlsson conceded that big investors
usually do not favor financial markets in developing countries with a small economy, but the
consortium was confident that use of state-of-the-art technology will change that mindset, as long
as Mongolia followed international norms in implementing laws, setting up a stable tax network,
and conducting corporate business in a transparent way.
The Government wants the selected company to provide the funds for the entire program and has
not specified how it will be allowed to recoup its investment. Mr. Erdenebat declined to go into
details, but indicated they would be interested in shares of the Mongolian Stock Exchange when it
becomes a joint venture.
Source: Onoodor
FRASER SURVEY KEEPS MONGOLIA AMONG LEAST ATTRACTIVE MINING DESTINATIONS
Mongolia remains among the 10 least unattractive places to work in, according to an update of the
Fraser Institute's annual survey of mining companies. The other 9 in the bottom square are Ecuador,
Kazakhstan, Bolivia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Russia, Colorado, Indonesia, and Tasmania.
The Canadian province of Alberta has replaced Quebec as the jurisdiction viewed as most attractive
to for investment by industry executives. Unsurprisingly, Australian jurisdictions suffered the
biggest drop in ranking compared with the previous survey released in mid-April, after then-Prime
Minister Kevin Rudd caused an uproar in the mining industry at home and abroad with proposals in
May for a 40% resources super profits tax (RSPT).
The big take-away from the updated survey is that sudden changes in mining policies, without
consultation with the industry, run the risk of scaring away investors, survey coordinator Fred
McMahon said on Wednesday. The question now is whether other governments will be less likely to
impose big changes after watching the Australian story unfold, he said in an interview.
High commodity prices can make it tempting for governments to introduce changes that return
more mining revenue to State coffers. ―It is of great concern, and it will be interesting to see
whether other rational jurisdictions take a lesson from Australia,‖ Mr. McMahon commented.
Read more…
―The mining industry's response to these things will depend on, one, the magnitude – whether it's
reasonable and unreasonable, and two, whether it is done in such a way as to give miners
confidence in the stability of the mining regime, or whether it is done in a way that will make them
very concerned about future ugly surprises down the road,‖ Mr. McMahon commented.
The Fraser Institute, a Canadian public policy think-tank, conducted an update to its annual survey
during the month of June, ―following the global recovery in commodity prices and the introduction
of new regulatory hurdles and taxation in many jurisdictions‖. The results are based on the opinions
of mining executives representing 429 mineral exploration and development companies on the
investment climate of 51 jurisdictions around the world.
Source: www.miningweekly.com
ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF LIVESTOCK CANNOT BE IGNORED, SAYS MINISTER
Mr. Kh.Zoljargal, Deputy Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry, has said that contrary to
the prevalent practice of entrusting the National Emergency Mitigation Agency with the
responsibility of storing hay and fodder, this year every district has been asked to prepare 100-180
tons of hay so that there is no problem with local distribution in the event of urgent need. The
Asian Development Bank has given MNT3 billion to be distributed among herders who have lost all
their animals. Each such household is getting MNT300,000 to replenish their herd. The Government
has no other plans to help herders in this, but livestock borrowing is in full swing among them.
Mr. Zoljargal said emphasis on mining and infrastructure development must not underestimate the
contribution livestock meat and other products can make to the national economy. Once their
safety is guaranteed by international standards of health and hygiene, export of meat, guts, skin
and hides can easily earn USD300 million annually, a figure that will rise if Mongolia can also
produce end products.
The Minister was confident domestic meat prices can be kept stable with proper planning. ―There is
no reason the Government should take the responsibility to provide cheap meat for those who can
afford high prices, but the interests of the comparatively less affluent and more vulnerable
sections, who consume goat and horse meat, should be served by storing enough of these in the
national reserve,‖ he said. If government policy regulations keep these meats cheap, the price of
lamb and beef can also be kept stable, he said.
Source: Udriin Sonin
FOREIGN FIRMS SHOW INTEREST IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
Officials of the Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction, and Urban Development say that
several foreign companies have shown interest in investing in infrastructure-related projects. The
recently passed Concession Law applies to 99 projects, of which 72 are under the purview of the
Ministry. Most of the proposals so far received relate to road and apartment construction and they
have come from companies in Russia, China, Germany and Canada.
The officials are optimistic that preliminary work on the railway would begin in two months and
that technical and economical assessments of projects to be included in the Sainshand industrial
complex would also be over before long. Both have already attracted considerable interest from
foreign companies.
Source: Udriin Sonin
92% OF ALLOCATED SME LOANS DISTRIBUTED NATIONWIDE
Reported problems with collateral, particularly in the provinces, notwithstanding, 92 percent of the
projected MNT30 billion has been disbursed as loans to small and medium enterprises in all 21
provinces and six districts of Ulaanbaatar. Mr. D.Batmagnai, officer in charge of Finance and
Investment of SME, has said the target has been met 99 percent in Ulaanbaatar and 95 percent in
the provinces. Loans have been given through Khan Bank, XacBank and Savings Bank in the
countryside and through Capitron Bank, Golomt Bank and Ulaanbaatar Bank in Ulaanbaatar.
He admitted that collateral was a problem as people in the countryside in general do not have
enough assets to offer as security. However, many proposals were also rejected because the banks
did not consider them deserving of support. Organizations and individuals submitted about 6,000
proposals and only about 10 percent of them have received these special loans. Most of these are in
manufacturing and refining raw materials. Many viable proposals that were rejected this year could
be reconsidered next year, he said.
The Government spent MNT1 billion to encourage SMEs in 2008. This works out to only about
MNT60-70 million per province. In 2009 and 2010, when MNT30 billion was budgeted nationwide,
one province got about MNT700 million. But even this is not enough, according to the official.
Source: News.mn
NEW PENSION SYSTEM BEING DEVELOPED
Procedures are being formulated to allow Mongolians not enlisted in the mandatory pension scheme
under the State social insurance fund to join a new scheme. Mr. S.Ganbold, Head of Financial
Regulatory Agency, has said the scheme will benefit the 400,000 or so people outside the present
scheme who thus have no pension cover. Also, the proposed scheme will add variety to the
insurance sector. Among the various advantages of the new scheme is one that allows the heirs of
an insured person who dies before his policy matures to claim part of the premium paid, and
another that permits people to choose from policies that run for varied terms.
Source: Udriin Sonin
MP WANTS PERSONAL INCOME TAX TO CONTRIBUTE MORE TO BUDGET
MP D.Baldan-Ochir (MPRP) feels that the tax policy needs change, so that personal income tax is
made to contribute more to the tax budget than at present. He rules out tinkering with the rates of
corporate income tax, as that might discourage badly needed fresh investment, but he thinks the
present situation, where only 5% of the State budget comes from personal income tax, is
unsustainable. With corporate income tax expected to provide 90% of the budget, tax inspectors
focus on companies and there are frequent cases of unnecessary litigation.
Mr. Baldan-Ochir says the secret of development of countries like those in Europe, the USA, and
Japan is their collection of personal income tax. Mongolian citizens must understand that paying tax
is not paying any sort of penalty and is also not something to be avoided. There can be no social
development without increased tax revenue and everybody who pays some tax contributes to this
development. He listed four ―justifications‖ for his demand for bringing more people under the
personal income tax net: It will eliminate the need for distribution of social welfare, establish
social justice, curb corruption, and give citizens value for their money.
Source: Undesnii Shuudan
OUTSTANDING LOANS RISE 3.1% M-O-M, 15.2% Y-O-Y
The Central Bank reports that money supply (broad money or M2) at the end of July was 0.6 percent
more than at the end of June and 41.2 percent more than in July, 2009. Outstanding
loans at the end of July rose 3.1 percent over the end of June, and 15.2 percent over July, 2009.
Principals in arrears fell 1.9 per cent against June 2010, and 22.9 percent against July, 2009. Non-
performing loans at the end of July rose 2.9 percent over June, and 17.4 percent over July, 2009.
Source: The Central Bank
CHINA‟S COPPER DEMAND “UNSTOPPABLE”, SAYS CHILEAN MINER
China's copper demand is expected to grow at 8 percent this year from last year, and at a similar
pace next year, Mr. Rodrigo Toro, a senior sales executive of Chile's Codelco, the world's largest
copper producer, has said. "The growth of demand in China is practically unstoppable," he said,
adding that Beijing's tighter monetary policy was a healthy dose to control the country's breakneck
growth.
"We are happy to see the demand in China will continue at very healthy rate, not as big as would be
at 12 percent GDP growth, because producers would not be able to respond to that additional
demand." He said the global copper demand growth would be 4 percent this year, but added it
might improve next year if the economy picked up pace.
"Treatment charges for copper concentrate will remain extremely low for quite some time. The
overcapacity in smelting and refining is so big that the demand for concentrate will exceed largely
the possibility of supply of copper concentrate," he said.
Source: Reuters.com
WHERE‟S THE COPPER TO COME FROM TO MEET FUTURE DEMAND?
"We need more copper in the next 20 years than was mined in the last 110 years," Ivanhoe Chairman
Robert Friedland is reported as saying. "Those of us in the business don't have any idea where this
metal is going to come from." He has a point.
Most serious analysts of the copper sector point to declining resources and grades at the world's
largest copper mines which are not being replaced sufficiently by new deposits being brought on
stream - and those major deposits that are being considered and developed carry, for the most
part much lower grades and require huge capital to get them off the ground. There are exceptions
- Tenke Fungurume in the DRC for example and other projects in that country - but the political and
security situation there still impacts development and slows down the availability of capital from
still risk-averse banks.
Mr. Friedland is a very astute and prescient judge of the mining sector, as well as having the
foresight - and the luck - to run companies successful in making major discoveries - Voiseys Bay,
Oyu Tolgoi. He deals a hard bargain in offloading his interests to the majors who have the clout,
and the capital raising ability, to develop them which does not always make him popular amongst
his peers. However in his views on copper most would undoubtedly agree with his analysis and be
enthused for the future of copper price as a result.
But, it's unlikely to be a smooth ride for copper ahead, whatever the longer term prospects may
suggest. Price performance so far this year has been, to say the least, pretty volatile and this
pattern is likely to continue as positive, and negative, assessments continue to be made on the
state of the global economy on which the copper market is very dependent. China and reports on
speeding up or slowing down of growth there, will be a major factor, as will speculation and
running down, or building up, of inventories.
Read more…
Copper is also vulnerable to disruptions - particularly when the price rises and the copper miners
are seen as making excessive profits. Increasingly aware labor forces demand a higher share of the
pot, as do governments strapped for cash to meet their social programs who see miners as an easy
target. Although the backlash against the Australian labor government for trying to bleed the
industry, which may well bring it down despite a prior huge lead in the polls, may make other
governments think twice. But, there are few areas of the world where mining is seen in such a
positive light as Australia where it is given much of the credit, deservedly so, for keeping the
country out of the economic hell that has decimated the finances of many of the older Western
economies.
Political disruptions may also occur as new mine development moves into countries where political
stability is more suspect. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is one such environment. In the
old autocratic Belgian Congo days the country was one of the world's top copper and cobalt
producers, but this dwindled to virtually nothing under a succession of corrupt governments and
while this has received a huge new boost under the current Kabila government there is no telling
whether this volatile nation will descend into anarchy again. Hopefully not, but recent
developments like the treatment of First Quantum, which has spent major capital sums on its DRC
developments, still suggests some major underlying governance problems.
Growth in global copper requirements is almost assured though as it is very much an ‗infrastructure'
dependent metal and growth aspirations of BRIC economies - and virtually all developing nations -
where aspirations for Western-type wealth and consumerism is forcing unprecedented levels of
global growth. This too will impact other metals and minerals, but few quite so heavily as copper.
The future for the red metal looks strong - but will we be able, as Mr. Friedland suggested, to
supply the world's requirements over the next 20 years.
Source: mineweb.com
INDONESIA IN TALKS WITH MINERS OVER NEW MINING LAW
Indonesia is in talks with mining companies to try and adjust their contracts in line with a new law
that aims to boost government revenue and at the same time attract investments through
streamlined procedures. The talks so far have focused on adjusting royalties and extensions. The
new law was passed last year to replace one dating back 41 years. It aims to squeeze more benefits
from rich mineral reserves in Indonesia, the world's top exporter of tin and thermal coal and a key
producer of zinc, copper, nickel and gold.
Industry has so far not strongly opposed the new law as commodity prices are now high enough to
ensure sufficient return on investments in spite of any increased royalties, and also because it
promises to make mining in the country simpler. The new law is not binding on companies that
already have contracts to operate in Indonesia. The government can only persuade them to change
some parts of the contract, including those on royalties, to bring them in line with the new rules.
Any forced change may be considered a breach of contract and may risk international arbitration. In
the past, such disputes have resulted in hefty losses for the government.
Indonesia has struggled to lure foreign investment into mining in recent years, its difficulties
compounded by some politicians taking a nationalist line on resource exploitation and also because
of uncertainty over regulations. The government has issued two new implementing regulations
under the new mining law this year to allow firms to start obtaining mining permits and speed
issuance for existing investors.
Source: Mineweb.com
RUSSIA GRAIN EXPORT BAN SPARKS PRICE FEARS
The prices of everyday staples such as bread, flour and beer are set to rise sharply after Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week imposed a ban on grain exports, triggering panic in
commodities markets and sending wheat prices to their highest since the 2007-08 global food crisis.
The ban would take effect from August 15 and last until December 31, a spokesman for Mr. Putin
said. A severe drought has devastated crops and wildfires have spread across Russia in the past
weeks.
The move, which caught traders and food producers by surprise, pushed the price of wheat to its
highest in two years and evoked memories of the last time the then Soviet Union suffered a
catastrophic crop failure in 1972. And Moscow introduced export restrictions during the 2007-08
global food crisis, triggering a wave of panic buying from North Africa and Middle East importers.
European wheat prices rose more than 12 per cent following the announcement. U.S. wheat futures
also jumped and are up more than 80 per cent since mid-June, the fastest rally in nearly 40 years.
There were fears that food price inflation could take off and that the world could even suffer a
repeat of the 2008 food crisis should the big shortfall in wheat output persist. Prices of other crops
including barley, corn and rapeseed also jumped sharply.
The worst drought in more than a century in the Black Sea region has led to widespread alarm.
Forecasts for the Russian grain crop have been falling daily. The UN has attempted to quell growing
panic in the markets, saying that fears of a repetition of the 2007-08 food crisis were unjustified.
But it also cut its forecast for global wheat production by 25 million tons to 651million tons, the
biggest revision in 20 years, and warned that a continuation of the current weather conditions could
affect planting of the next Russian crop, with ―potentially serious implications‖ for global wheat
supplies in the 2011-12 season.
Russia provided 14.5% of global exports from the 2009-10 crop, according to the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the UN. Moreover, it has played a key role in meeting rising import
demand, exporting 17.5 million metric tons of wheat, up from less than one million in 2000-01.
Mongolia imports a large quantity of flour from Russia to meet domestic demands.
Source: The Financial Times
RUSSIA‟S GRAIN BAN IS THE WRONG RESPONSE
Two years ago, rocketing prices for agricultural commodities sparked food riots in the streets of
some developing countries. Prices have been rising sharply again this year, especially for grains
such as wheat. Last week, they shot up after Russia imposed an export ban on grains until the end
of this year. Another food crisis does not look out of the question.
Not for nothing did Lenin once call grain the ―currency of currencies‖. Its price not only determines
the cost of staples such as bread; it is also used as animal feed. Russia‘s ban – announced
theatrically by its Prime Minister, Mr. Vladimir Putin – was blamed on droughts and fires that have
ravaged some of its wheat-growing districts. These have depleted the summer harvest and may
cause the winter crop to fail too. But while it is possible to sympathize with the Russian
predicament, the ban is counterproductive. It is both a costly mechanism for protecting the welfare
of less well-off Russians and makes a rerun of 2008 more likely.
The embargo comes against the backdrop of a tight commodities market. True, the picture is
brighter than it was two years ago International Monetary Fund‘s. Grain inventories, which act as a
buffer against shortages, are much higher. If this winter‘s harvests in Argentina and Australia hold
up, supplies should be adequate to meet demand. But the ban introduces a worrying variable.
Traders, spooked by Russia‘s ban, may now seek to hoard supplies. Other countries may copy
Moscow‘s export ban to protect their own domestic markets. Despite the plumper supply cushion, it
would not take much to pitch markets back into a world of shortages and sky-high prices.
Read more…
The crisis of 2008 was the first such upheaval for 30 years. To face a second so soon should be a
wake-up call. It would be irresponsible to expect the benign conditions of the past to return. Things
can be done. Countries should invest more in irrigation projects to improve the quality of the
increasingly marginal land under cultivation and make more use of hardy GM crops. A bigger
strategic grain reserve to absorb shocks may be needed.
Equally importantly, there is a need for an international system, perhaps under the auspices of the
World Trade Organization, to set out the rules under which countries can suspend exports of
agricultural commodities. That would make the markets more predictable and limit the risk of self-
feeding crises developing. The alternative is more crises.
Source: The Financial Times
CHINA AND THE IMF: GETTING AWAY WITH MANIPULATION
A growing list of countries — from the United States to the European Union to Brazil — have
complained that China has been cheapening its currency. So it is positive news — of a sort — that
China agreed to submit this year to the International Monetary Fund‘s annual review of exchange
rate and economic policies. But nobody should interpret this as a major shift in policy. Indeed, the
fund‘s economists reported last week that ―the renminbi remains substantially below the level that
is consistent with medium-term fundamentals.‖
The new openness means China is more comfortable that it can get away with the manipulation. It
agreed to the review only after the fund softened its standards for determining whether countries
are manipulating their exchange rate to boost exports, in violation of IMF rules, and to give
countries like China ―the benefit of any reasonable doubt‖ when evaluating their policies.
True, China has relied less on exports to fuel growth since the financial crisis started. This defused
some criticism of its currency policy. Its trade surplus fell by half in the last two years as recession
forced many countries to slash their imports while China‘s fast recovery boosted its own imports,
aiding growth overseas. And in June it said it would allow the renminbi to gradually inch upward
against the dollar.
Unfortunately, some of that will be short-lived. Even through the global downturn, China‘s share of
world exports grew to nearly 10 percent. China‘s exports are now rebounding, and its trade surplus
is expected to bottom out this year. Since the announced policy change, its currency has risen little
against the dollar and has actually lost value against the euro and the Japanese yen.
Yet China cannot be left off the hook. The IMF must monitor China‘s trade surplus to assess its drag
on global demand. If the fund‘s economists are proved right, its executive board should reassess its
conclusions, call a manipulator a manipulator, and persuade the international community to make
China stop.
Read more…
The IMF seems to view the outlook as a glass half full. Its executive board welcomed the change in
China‘s currency policy, and ―a number‖ of its directors — which in fund-speak means 6 to 9 out of
24 — disagreed with the staff‘s view that the renminbi is undervalued. This tolerant attitude is
probably wise. Retaliating against China with punitive trade barriers, as urged by some in Congress,
would spark a tit-for-tat confrontation that would endanger economic recovery. China also is doing
other things — increasing pension payments and unemployment checks, and providing subsidies for
college education and purchases of homes and durable goods — in order to increase domestic
consumption and reduce reliance on exports.
Source: The New York Times
CHINA‟S CALCULATED YEN FOR THE JAPANESE YEN
A strong yen is giving Tokyo an awful headache. Beijing is adding to the problem. If things get
worse, these old rivals could find themselves facing off in global currency markets. China has
ramped up its stockpiling of yen this year, snapping up USD5.3 billion worth of the currency in June,
Japan's Ministry of Finance reported Monday. China has already bought USD20 billion worth of yen
financial assets this year, almost five times as much as it did in the previous five years combined.
That's making the yen even stronger than it otherwise would be.
There are a few explanations for this activity. China's currency managers have long stated their
desire to diversify the nation's foreign exchange horde away from dollars. More recently, Beijing
signaled it will use a basket of its biggest trade partners' currencies to manage the yuan's levels,
rather than only the dollar. That basket undoubtedly includes yen. Economists from Standard
Chartered believe the South Korean won and Canadian and Australian dollars are also in the mix.
Fundamental factors are also underpinning the yen's strength. Converging interest rates in the U.S.
and Japan take away an incentive for Japanese investors to send yen abroad and for global hedge
funds to favor the yen for carry trades. Japan's persistent current account surplus creates structural
demand for yen, too.
But it doesn't take much for China to move the Japanese currency. A one percentage point shift of
China's reserves into yen equals a month's worth of Japan's current account surplus. And news that
China has a new found love for the Japanese currency has hedge funds piling onto the brawny yen
story.
Read more…
Intended or not, Beijing's yen buying will benefit Chinese exporters that compete with Japan, and
pressure Japanese companies to move even more fabrication facilities to lower-cost China.
Conversely, the stronger currency is threatening Japan's export-led profit recovery: Already the yen
is well above levels at which major Japanese manufacturers have based their earnings and sales
forecasts.
It's up to Japan to respond. If the dollar drops to below 83 yen from 85.42 currently, the Bank of
Japan could inject more cash into the banking system, a yen weakener, Nomura's currency
strategist Taisuke Tanaka notes. Such levels could also move Japan's finance ministry to direct
official yen selling in currency markets, something it's not done since 2004.
If it does intervene, though, the ministry might find the People's Bank of China a willing buyer--
gladly vacuuming up enough yen to stifle its efforts.
Source: The Wall Street Journal Asia
CHINA‟S DOUBLE GOLD GAME
Let‘s play a little game called "Spot the Gold Price", shall we?
Our friend gold had bounced in the wake of poor economic figures from the U.S., in particular job
losses. Back up through USD1200/oz, it scored at the expense of the dollar. In a continuing
paradox, we have the all-important China contribution. The Central Bank is not going to stockpile
gold seriously, or so it leads us to believe, but is certainly encouraging its citizens to do so.
They bought 73 tons in 2009. That is only 3% of newly-mined supply, but up from 18 tons in 2007.
This will surely be followed by a range of gold-based financial products. So, why the double
game?
At the last count, China officially held 1,054 tons, which is worth USD38 billions right now. That is
1.6% of its total reserves of USD2,000 billion, mostly held in U.S. dollars. Now that is over 50kt of
gold, if converted, so we can't go there. But China mines - and is the world's largest miner - about
352 tpy. That's 10.5 million ounces. If every Chinese type person bought just half an ounce - that's
10% of GDP, those 1.3 billion customers would mop up 650 million ounces, or 22,000 tpy. Which is
just plain silly. Isn't it? So let's deduct the old, the young, the sick, lame and lazy and divide
China's appetite by ten. That is still 2,200 tpy, almost all the world's mined output. It won't
happen. Will it?
But there is more to China's strategy than meets the eye, is there not? Hold a lot of gold within
your borders, but let your citizens pay for it: mops up their surplus funds, stops them becoming
excessive about consumerism, and keeps the fear factor on the boil - never a bad thing with 1.3
billion of them on the loose.
But what is the end game? For there surely is one.
Read more…
There will come a time - of that let there be no doubt - when China's foreign exchange reserves will
be dissipated, when it will need the only true collateral the world has ever recognized: Gold. It
will appeal to the hearts and minds of its citizens in authoritarian fashion. It will offer them paper
in exchange for their personal gold holdings. Being China, it might be exchange or the firing squad.
There is precedent. America's Roosevelt did it in 1933. Germany's Hitler did it in 1940 and Britain's
Wilson pulled off the same trick in 1964. But for the short term - which in China's case can be a
century - it is perhaps a compelling reason not to go short of gold.
Source: David.Hargreaves@WH-Ireland.Co.Uk , used in Mineweb.com
CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON ENERGY USE, SHUTS 2,000 FACTORIES
Earlier this summer, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China promised to use an ―iron hand‖ to improve
his country‘s energy efficiency, and a growing number of businesses are now discovering that it
feels like a fist. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology quietly published a list late
Sunday of 2,087 steel mills, cement works and other energy-intensive factories required to close by
September 30. Energy analysts described it as a significant step toward the country‘s energy-
efficiency goals, but not enough by itself to achieve them.
Over the years, provincial and municipal officials have sometimes tried to block Beijing‘s attempts
to close aging factories in their jurisdictions. They have particularly sought to protect older steel
mills and other heavy industrial operations that frequently have thousands of employees and have
sometimes provided workers with housing, athletic facilities and other benefits since the 1950s or
1960s.
To prevent such local obstruction this time, the ministry said in a statement on its Web site that
the factories on its list would be barred from obtaining bank loans, export credits, business licenses
and land. The ministry even warned that their electricity would be shut off, if necessary. The goal
of the factory closings is ―to enhance the structure of production, heighten the standard of
technical capability and international competitiveness and realize a transformation of industry from
being big to being strong‖, the ministry said.
Read more…
The announcement was the latest in a series of Chinese moves to increase energy efficiency. The
National Development and Reform Commission, which is the government‘s most powerful economic
planning agency, announced last Friday that it had forced 22 provinces to halt their practice of
providing electricity at discounted prices to energy-hungry industries like aluminum production.
Even if China meets its energy-efficiency goal this year and its carbon goal by 2020, its total carbon
emissions are still on track to rise steeply in the next decade, according to forecasts by the
International Energy Agency. That is because of factors including rapid growth in the Chinese
economy, growing car ownership and rising ownership of household appliances.
The current Chinese five-year plan calls for using 20 percent less energy this year for each unit of
economic output than in 2005. But surging production by heavy industry since last winter has put in
question China‘s ability to meet the target. The success or failure of China‘s energy-efficiency
campaign is being watched closely not just by economists, who cite the campaign as one reason
that growth of the Chinese economy has slowed down a little this summer, but also by climate
scientists.
China‘s energy consumption rose so sharply last winter that it produced the biggest surge ever of
greenhouse gases by a single country. Power plants burned more coal to generate enough electricity
to meet demand.
As China has become increasingly dependent on imported oil and coal, its national security
establishment has become more visibly involved in energy policy and energy security, including
efforts to improve energy efficiency. Efficiency improved 14.4 percent in the first four years of the
current plan, only to deteriorate by 3.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, according to
official statistics. Mr. Wen responded by convening a special meeting of the cabinet in May to
address the situation.
The ministry said in its statement that the factories to be closed would include 762 that make
cement, 279 that produce paper, 175 that manufacture steel and 84 that process leather. Closing
factories is more palatable now than in the past because a labor shortage in many cities has made it
easier for workers, particularly young ones, to find other jobs.
Source: The New York Times
CHINA NEEDS SLOWER, BETTER GROWTH
Earlier this year China posted robust growth of 11.9 percent, prompting worries that the country
was overheating. Recently the mood has changed, with signs of a slowdown. Manufacturing output
grew at its slowest rate for 17 months in July, while predictions suggest third-quarter growth will
dip below 10 per cent. Concerns are now being voiced that a faltering of the Chinese economy will
imperil the global recovery.
Such short-term concerns are premature, says Mr. Yu Yongding, an academician with the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences and a former member of the monetary policy committee of the Chinese
central bank. He recalls that China posted growth in 2009 of 9.1 percent, a merely respectable
achievement by Chinese standards, but impressive nonetheless in the midst of a global financial
catastrophe. Most of this came from new infrastructure investment, which probably added 8
percentage points, offsetting a sharp fall in exports. Yet although China‘s huge stimulus package
was a great success, it also stored up serious problems for the future.
Rushed investment in roads and buildings leads to waste, which will have dire long-term
consequences for China‘s improved, but still fragile, banking system. Investment in infrastructure
avoids overcapacity, but brings returns only if it goes hand in hand with stronger manufacturing and
other growth. Where will tolls come from if there is no traffic on an eight-lane highway? How then
will the bank loans be repaid?
China has concentrated obsessively on GDP growth for far too long. But growth is not a good excuse
for postponing much-needed structural adjustment. This readjustment, when it comes, will
inevitably lead to a slowdown. But it is the only way to lay a solid foundation for sustainable growth
in the long run. And the longer the delay, the more painful the adjustment will be.
Read more…
Such issues have been under-examined as Chinese policymakers grapple with how to halt a housing
boom. Low interest rates and excess liquidity created by 2009‘s huge credit expansion have driven
house prices to dizzying heights. From January 2009 to May 2010, in 36 big cities, residential house
prices increased by 40 percent. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen rises were even greater.
Justifiable or not, high house prices have caused immense public resentment, and as a result
China‘s leaders have of late been attempting to undo some of their own work. Over-expansionary
monetary policy began to be withdrawn in the second half of 2009. Credit expansion was reined in.
Policies to contain the fever of property development also followed. For the first time, both a
property tax and a capital gains tax are under discussion.
Thankfully, these measures seem to be working, with property sales cooling. Indeed, weaker growth
this year is mostly explained by deliberate policy changes in Beijing. Europe‘s sovereign debt crisis
and the slowdown of the global economy may have an impact later this year, but they have not
done so yet.
Now the real economic debate in China focuses on whether the government should move again, this
time to reverse the new slowdown it itself initiated. Some western economists, in particular, worry
that China‘s property market is beginning a collapse that will hit the nation‘s banking system. But,
in my view, wobbling because of the current dip in growth would be a mistake.
Yes, at the moment there is a tug of war between house buyers and property developers. Whether
prices fall will depend on who blinks first. But this, in turn, depends on whether both believe in the
credibility of government policy. If the government stands firm, house prices will fall. Of course, if
controls are implemented haphazardly the government risks such a collapse. But currently a 30 per
cent drop is the worst-case scenario. Chinese households have low debt levels and even a dramatic
fall could be borne by well-capitalized banks.
Overall, therefore, China‘s short-term fiscal position remains much better than almost all other big
economies. It is in the long run that all is not well. A viable economy cannot be built on steel and
concrete alone, and China‘s problem is more its poor allocation of resources than the bursting of a
property bubble. At present real estate, at around a quarter of total investment, simply takes up
too much economic room.
The economy‘s list of structural problems is also long, including over-dependence on investment
and external demand, an unacceptably wide gap in incomes, too few social goods and an
underdevelopment of the service sector. Slow progress in anti-corruption campaigns and
institutional reforms are also worrying.
In the long-run, however, it is the pattern of growth that needs most urgent attention. Investment
and exports have been the twin engines of China‘s growth. But investment growth will soon hit a
ceiling imposed by social, environmental and natural resources. The danger is that deflation will set
in and the growth process will break down. Increasing exports can postpone, but not prevent, this
reverse.
Following the increase in the size of the Chinese economy and the general slowdown of the global
economy, China‘s export drive is also crashing into a stone wall of trade friction and protectionism.
To sustain growth it must lower investment and rebalance its current account. Improving the
quality, rather than the quantity, of growth should be the priority.
Source: The Financial Times
CHINA SHOWS FURTHER SIGNS OF SLOWING
China‘s economy continued to slow last month as efforts to cool the property market and reduce
energy consumption began to bite, even as consumer price inflation rose further. The rates of
increase for industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales each fell last month,
while new banks loans and money supply growth also slowed.
However, inflation jumped to 3.3 percent, higher than the 3 percent target the government has set
for the year and up from 2.9 percent the month before. In contrast, factory-gate inflation fell back
from 6.4 percent to 4.8 percent. The latest figures come a day after data showing a sharp decline
in the pace of growth in imports in July, adding to signs that demand is waning.
Most economists argue that China is witnessing a controlled slowing from the potential overheating
of earlier in the year, rather than a new slump, but the pace of the slowdown has caught some
analysts by surprise and is prompting calls for the government to shift course and unwind some of
its tightening policies.
Read more…
The year-on-year rate of increase of industrial output fell from 13.7 percent in June to 13.4 percent
last month, while the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment cooled to 24.9 percent compared
with 25.5 percent the same period last year. Retail sales increased by 17.9 percent year-on-year,
down from 18.3 percent in June. Taking into account inflation, the 14.6 percent real increase was
the lowest since February last year. Most economists said the rise in consumer prices was temporary
and partly caused by recent flooding disrupting food supplies. But one of the principal risks facing
China in the coming months is a sharpening spike in inflation, which would reduce the government‘s
room to support the economy if the slowdown gathers pace.
Source: The Financial Times
CHINA‟S TRADE SURPLUS WIDENS FURTHER
China‘s trade surplus jumped in July to its highest level in 18 months, raising new questions about
whether the country‘s currency remains undervalued despite government efforts to introduce a
more flexible exchange rate. The trade surplus for July increased to USD28.7 billion, well ahead of
the USD20 billion recorded the month before and significantly above analyst forecasts, according to
data released on Tuesday.
The pace of increase in exports actually fell last month to 38.1 per cent, year-on-year, down from
43.9 per cent in June. However, import growth slowed even more, moving up 22.7 per cent against
34.1 per cent in June. The rising trade surplus will increase the political pressure on Beijing to
appreciate its currency more rapidly. Earlier in the year, Beijing was able to point to a series of
much smaller monthly surpluses – and a trade deficit in March – as evidence that the economy was
already rebalancing and was much less dependent on exports. However the figures over the last
three months suggest that the surplus in the second half of the year is likely to be much larger.
Yet the slowdown in import growth in China could also be a reflection of a significant cooling in the
domestic economy, which would make policymakers in Beijing more reluctant to strengthen the
currency sharply. China signaled a major shift in exchange rate policy in late June when it said
would abandon the de facto currency peg it had operated for the previous two years against the US
dollar. But since then there has only been very modest movement in the exchange rate, with the
renminbi rising 0.78 per cent against the US dollar.
Source: The Financial Times
POLITICS
MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS WILL NOT BE REACHED IN STIPULATED TIME
The 3rd national report on realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has concluded
that despite steady progress, it will be difficult to achieve them by 2015. The report was presented
at a ceremony last week in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that was attended by, among others, Mr.
Ajay Chhibber, a UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and
the Pacific. A team made up of representatives of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos and China held a
meeting to assess the reports and concluded that Mongolia "reduced its poverty rate by only 1.4 per
cent in the last 14-year period and this is not a satisfactory indicator".
Source: Ardiin Erkh
MINISTER APPEALS FOR RESTRAINT OVER CHINESE COMPANY‟S ACTIVITY
The recent clash between employees of GCC Air and local people arose because citizens of three
districts feel the gold extraction activity of the Chinese company in Uvs province is responsible for
severely polluting the Orlogo River. Community representatives told Prime Minister S. Batbold when
he was in Uvs during his tour of the provinces of their unhappiness at the way ―misinformation is
being released‖, and at the way police had acted, opening fire and arresting people. They asked
him to take immediate action to halt the operation of the company, to punish the guilty policemen,
to release detained citizens, and to compensate losses to the environment and individual lives.
State Secretary of the Ministry of Minerals and Energy Ch.Khurelbaatar has said the company owns
two mining licenses covering 108.9 hectares and has so far paid MNT286.5 million in taxes.
However, they are yet to submit any environmental evaluation report to the Ministry of Nature,
Environment, and Tourism. The Government has also concluded that certain parts of the license do
indeed fall under areas where mining is now prohibited under the law protecting selected
territories. Minister of Nature, Environment, and Tourism L.Gansukh has said they have begun work
on revoking the company‘s license in such areas.
Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs Ts.Nyamdorj has said the company was legally obliged to
stop their work after receiving prohibitory notices from the State Special Inspection Agency, but he
also blamed the local communities for the violence and warned them against a repetition. ―As long
as a company holds a proper license, it does not matter whether it is Mongolian or Chinese. We
shall not allow hoodlums to resolve legal issues and shall not be intimidated by threats,‖ he said.
Appealing for calm to prevail, he assured the aggrieved communities that the Government will act
according to the law and see nobody suffers without reason.
Source: Onoodor
PRIME MINISTER URGES PEOPLE TO COME UP WITH IDEAS
Prime Minister S.Batbold was in the western provinces last week as part of his extended tour of the
countryside on a fact-finding mission. He held meetings with citizens at province capitals and at
several district centers to explain the Government‘s policies, programs and achievements as also to
listen to people‘s grievances and demands, most of which related to special allowances for remote
regions, rise in tuition fees at universities and institutes, lack of insurance cover for traders and
herdsmen, low salaries of doctors and medical workers, improving infrastructure, and generating
employment.
Everywhere he spoke, Mr. Batbold asked people to discuss problems among themselves and come up
with suggestions on how their condition could be improved. He promised careful consideration of all
such good ideas received from the grassroots. He also urged households to make their own
preparations for the winter, and not to depend totally on the provincial authorities. Referring to
the potential development of local mineral resources like brown coal, chromium, iron ore, gold and
oil and of manufacturing industries based on these, he told citizens of Gobi-Altai that until such
time that these plans materialized, they should cooperate with the province authorities in
expanding infrastructure, tourism, the small- and medium-size sector, and health, education and
industrial services.
Source: Montsame
ELBEGDORJ INVITED TO JOIN WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM‟S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
President Ts.Elbegdorj has received an invitation from Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and
Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, to become a member of the Forum‘s Global
Agenda Council on Climate Change,‖given your thought and leadership in this field‖.
Source: The President‘s Office
TOURISM BOSS WANTS GUIDES TO BE MORE WELL-INFORMED
Mr. N.Molor, Director of the National Tourism Center, has expressed his unhappiness that proper
tourism has failed to pick up in Mongolia. Tourists from other societies can develop respect for local
culture and traditions only if these are competently and carefully explained to them. Mr. Molor
feels most tourist guides are ignorant of such aspects, with the result that the increase in the
number of tourists has only meant a rise in environmental pollution and exploitation of natural
resources like water. Local communities reap little benefit from tourism in their area, and are thus
unable to work for regional development with the revenue that properly planned tourism should
generate.
Mr. Molor would prefer more involvement of local citizens in handling tourists, instead of leaving
the entire work to tour guides who parrot information acquired from books and the Internet, and
are without any personal knowledge of or commitment to local customs, culture, and lifestyle. The
problem, he admitted, was that local guides mostly do not know any foreign language. He urged
local administrations to work together with tourist companies in Ulaanbaatar to organize tourist
itineraries that stressed local variations and to offer explanations researched by academics. The
Japanese development organization JICA began implementing some eco-tourism projects in
Mongolia about three years ago. These had great potential but have not been successful, according
to Mr. Molor, even though the term is widely used by tour operators.
Source: Zuunii Medee
PM ORDERS USD250,000 FOR TAISHIR WATER POWER PLANT
Following a visit to the Taishir water power plant on August 8 Prime Minister S.Batbold instructed
the Ministry for Finance and the Ministry for Minerals and Energy to release US250,000 so that full
generation there may begin in September. The plant is expected to provide power to meet all the
needs of Gobi-Altai and Zavkhan provinces, but does not work to capacity, and has been supplying
power to only Taishir and Jargalan districts since August, 2008. Generation cannot increase as the
water level in the Zavkhan River is not high. The project was begun in 1997 with Kuwaiti assistance.
So far, over MNT90 billion has been spent on it.
Source: English.News.mn
STRONG CANADIAN PARTICIPATION IN FARM SHOW CO-SPONSORED BY EMBASSY
The Embassy of Canada is the co-sponsor this year, for the first time, of Mongolia‘s national farm
show, ATAR III 2010, being held on August 13-15 in Selenge, the major agricultural province of the
country. The other sponsors are the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, the Governor‘s
Office of Selenge and Tuv provinces, and the Gatsuurt Company. It is the first dryland farm
technology and equipment show in Mongolia, with 15 Canadian and 200 Mongolian agri-businesses
companies participating.
The aim of the show is to deepen Canada-Mongolia cooperation in the agricultural sector; introduce
and promote Canadian advanced agricultural machinery, products and technology; boost
agricultural trade between the two countries; and to establish contacts between representatives of
the Canadian and Mongolian private sectors. Among the Canadian exhibitors are Morris Industries,
which manufactures air seeding, tillage and hay handling systems; Westeel, which makes steel
storage products for farm and commercial use, and also offers custom storage solutions to the
needs of petroleum and industrial sectors; Schulte Industries, producer of rotary cutters, rock and
snow removers; Skyway Grain Systems, specialists in custom grain handling systems and grain
storage structures, and OC Flock Management, whose expertise is in reproductive technologies in
sheep and goats.
Source: The Canadian Embassy
PROSECUTION AGENCY TURNS 80
The National Prosecution Agency last week observed the 80th
anniversary of its establishment as a
legal government authority affiliated to the Ministry of Justice. For all this period, prosecutors have
served the State and the people by monitoring the work of filing cases, conducting investigation,
and representing the government in court cases. Prosecutors marked the anniversary by paying
tribute to the statue of Chinggis Khaan and laying wreaths at the statue of Sukhbaatar. Later, there
were a concert and a wrestling event at the Cultural Center.
Source: Zuunii Medee
MAYOR PLANS UNTREATED WATER FOR TOILETS, BETTER STREET LIGHTS
Ulaanbaatar Mayor G.Munkbayar has begun discussions with engineers on the economic and
technical aspects of using untreated and/or recycled water in apartment toilets. The budget has
allocated MNT1 billion for the program that will save money and also conserve fresh water. Mr.
Munkhbayar also plans to announce an international open tender soon to install on the main streets
illumination that meets global standards.
Source: Montsame
NEW BUILDINGS FOR BOTH MAJOR PARTIES
Both major political parties are going to have new buildings. The MPRP building is at the same site
where the old one was irreparably damaged in the July 1 violence in 2008, while the DP is
constructing a new building in place of the old one which has been sold.
The MPRP expects its Independence Palace to be ready by next March. The old building which was
burnt was demolished and new construction began in the second season of 2009. The party
considered 18 plans from 11 architecture firms and chose the one from Baldan Company. Undur
Buyant Holding Company was selected as the builder. The party had restricted the tender to
companies that supported the MPRP. The new building will have 12 stories, including two in the
basement and a technical floor. It will be 39.2 meters tall, 56.8 meters long and 43.3 meters wide.
It will have office rooms, a meeting hall to seat 800 people, an auditorium for 300 people, a
museum gallery with 1,000 sq. meters of floor space, a dining hall with 400 seats, a library, a
supermarket as well as a garage for 96 cars. It will cost MNT14.6 billion.
The DP will call its building Democracy Palace. The foundation stone was laid on December 6, 2009
and the construction work is being executed by Balban‘s Company. The palace will have two blocks,
with 27.780 sq. meters of total floor space. The public block will be five stories high while the
office tower will have 20 floors rising 120 meters. There will be a Democratic History hall, a
museum, a lecture hall with 200 seats, an Internet training and research center, a business
information center, a meeting hall with 520 seats, and rooms for translators, observers and
journalists. A three-meter tall monument ―My freedom and my inspiration‖ will be placed in the
center of the building. Sculptor L.Gankhuyag hopes to finish the work by 2012.
Source: English.News.mn
U.S. AMBASSADOR ATTENDS CEREMONY AT AMARBAYASGALANT MONASTERY
U.S. Ambassador Jonathan Addleton and some Embassy staff participated in a recent celebration
marking the 20th anniversary of the reopening of Amarbayasgalant Monastery. The monastery
complex is nearly 300 years old, but communist purges starting in 1937 forced its closure as tens of
thousands of monks were arrested, executed, or forced into hiding. In 1989 the beginning of the
democratic movement opened the door for the re-emergence of Buddhism and the reopening of the
monasteries.
The Embassy has a long relationship with the monastery which, as one of the few remaining
historical structures in Mongolia, holds a special place as one of its most important cultural heritage
sites. At the opening ceremony, the monks dedicated a brand new ―wish granting‖ stupa on the
hillside, performed chants, and recognized the monastery‘s supporters.
The head monk thanked the U.S. Government for its support – including this year‘s USD75,000
cultural preservation grant to provide fire and theft protection for the all-wooden complex, and a
new roof for the main temple building. This grant is part of the U.S. State Department‘s
Ambassador‘s Fund for Cultural Preservation which has supported hundreds of cultural heritage
sites around the world.
Source: The U.S. Embassy in Mongolia
NORTH KOREA OFFERS GINSENG TO PAY PART OF CZECH DEBT
Pyongyang‘s cash-strapped totalitarian regime has offered to settle part of its debt to the Czech
Republic with a large consignment of ginseng rather than eat into its limited funds. With the
domestic economy crumbling, North Korea is also feeling the pinch of tighter international
sanctions imposed over its nuclear and missile programs and the sinking of a South Korean warship.
Its access to global markets is further hindered by outstanding international debts of about ISD12
billion, two-thirds to former communist states.
Czech officials confirmed that Pyongyang had offered to settle 5 percent of its USD 10 million in
accumulated debt in ginseng, an invigorating root used in dietary supplements and teas that are
supposed to improve memory, stamina and libido. Communist Czechoslovakia was a leading supplier
of heavy machinery, trucks and trams to North Korea.
Non-cash trade and settlement of debt has been common among socialist countries. Cuba
compensates Venezuela for discounted oil by sending doctors to work in deprived areas. However,
the now-capitalist Czechs are unconvinced they need an injection of vigor. ―We have been trying to
convince them to send, for instance, a shipment of zinc, which is mined there. We would sell it
ourselves,‖ Mr. Tomas Zidek, the Czech Republic‘s deputy finance minister, has said.
A newspaper calculates that 5 percent of the North Korean debt would amount to 20 tons of the
curly white root. Retail prices of North Korean ginseng in Taiwan suggest a figure closer to 12 tons.
Both sums massively outstrip the Czech Republic‘s annual consumption of about 1.4 tons year.
International security services last year seized large illegal consignments of smuggled arms, which
are a key source of hard cash revenue for Pyongyang, probably worth hundreds of millions of
dollars.
North Korea‘s military runs the export companies that ship specialty foodstuffs, such as shellfish,
ginseng and mushrooms, to gain hard currency. Intelligence agencies say the ginseng trade is
controlled by Pyongyang‘s shadowy ―Bureau 39‖, which runs the country‘s foreign funds.
Source: The Financial Times
U.S. VENTURES INTO TROUBLED ASIAN WATERS
When Mrs. Hillary Clinton said in July that the resolution of territorial disputes in the South China
Sea was in the U.S. national interest, she threatened to upset a delicate diplomatic balance that
has been maintained for a decade. That restraint has held in check a potentially explosive cocktail
composed of China‘s pursuit of energy security, its neighbors‘ fears about its growing power and
U.S. concerns about Beijing‘s military expansion in an oil and gas-rich area. The sea is also home to
vital shipping lanes.
The U.S. Secretary of State drew attention to Washington‘s anxiety about the region when she
added her voice to calls for a multilateral approach to resolving territorial disputes in the South
China Sea during an Asian security forum, calling the issue a ―leading diplomatic priority‖. China,
Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Indonesia lay claims to all or part of the
body of water that extends from China‘s Hainan Island to the northern coast of Borneo. The areas
with the most overlapping claims are mainly near the Spratly and Paracel island groups.
In 2002, China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) signed a declaration of
conduct, under which all parties pledged to exercise restraint in the disputed waters. But Asean
members feel that the accord has become meaningless, and observers speak of Chinese
assertiveness in the South China Sea, while disputes between fishing vessels and naval forces are on
the rise. What has for many years been a dispute between neighbors is also gaining a global
dimension.
The view in Washington is that Mrs. Clinton‘s comments reflect U.S. concerns that, left unchecked,
China‘s military drive could transform the region‘s political landscape. ―China is shifting its military
focus from a land-centric focus to an air and maritime-focused capability,‖ Admiral Mike Mullen,
chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said in India recently. ―The Pacific region is a critical
economic region; a critical trade region … [and so] I‘ve gone from being curious about where
China‘s headed to being concerned about it.‖
Read more…
A new submarine base on Hainan is expected to result in China‘s navy becoming more active in
regional waters. This could restrict the U.S. Navy‘s freedom of movement in the area. Beijing also
recently called the South China Sea a ―core interest‖ – a status it had in the past only assigned to
Taiwan and Tibet, although Beijing made its reference ―in the context of specific U.S. activities
that China opposed, not the dispute more generally‖, said Mr. Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese
security issues at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
―The Chinese may see parts of the South China Sea as the potential redoubt for their future ballistic
missile-carrying submarines,‖ said Mr. Tim Huxley of the International Institute for Strategic
Studies. ―China‘s greater interest in the South China Sea [is] not just about natural resources. There
are hard strategic issues as well.‖ When Beijing issued its first official reaction to Mrs. Clinton‘s
comments, it made a point of condemning the ―internationalization‖ of the dispute and also
disclosed that it had conducted a naval exercise in the area the previous week.
South-east Asian governments have also expressed concern. Indonesia is leading efforts to try to
forge a regional consensus. In a recent letter to the UN, Jakarta said China‘s attempt to use
isolated islets to establish its legal claim to sovereignty ―clearly lacks international legal basis‖, and
to allow it would undermine the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – the framework for
establishing sovereignty. ―[China‘s military expansion] is a fact,‖ said a spokesman for Indonesia‘s
foreign ministry. China‘s growth was increasing suspicion in the region, he said. Vietnam, and to a
lesser extent Malaysia, have also begun to push back against what some see as Chinese bullying,
says Mr. Huxley.
From China‘s perspective, things look different. Mr. Li Jinming, a South China Sea expert at Xiamen
University, says China is concerned about Vietnam pushing ahead with oil exploration in disputed
areas.
A UN deadline early last year for coastal states to file claims for stretches of seabed linked to their
continental shelf made things worse. Claims filed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia
triggered an intervention from China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea. A Philippine
foreign ministry official said Asean members wanted a meeting of senior officials from the regional
group and China to discuss the drafting of a binding code of conduct. ―But China is non-committal
at this time,‖ he added.
Beijing believes that time is on its side. Mr. Song Xiaojun, a Beijing-based military analyst, says
Asean countries are betting on the rivalry between China and the U.S., with ―a foot on one boat
each‖. But he thinks China‘s continued economic rise will change the odds eventually.
Source: The Financial Times
NEW MONGOLIAN REGULATIONS
The following new laws, amendments and annulment were published in the latest weekly
Government bulletin. Unless otherwise decided by Parliament, they will take effect ten (10) days
after publication.
Date Laws
04.08.2010 1. Law on Prohibition of Newly Approval for Special Licence of Quest for Minerals
2. Law on Air Atmosphere
3. Annulment of Law on Air Atmosphere
4. Amendments to Law on Environmental Protection
5. Amendments to Law on Road Traffic Safety
6. Amendments to Law on Special Fund of Government
7. Amendments to Law on Excise Tax
8. Law on Payment for Air Pollution
9. Amendments to Law on General Tax
10. Amendments to Law on State Consolidated Budget of Mongolia
Please visit BCM's website, Legislative Working Group, for a summary of new Mongolian laws. BCM
members who wish to access complete versions of the laws and regulations in Mongolian language
are welcome to call or email the BCM office: 332345 or info@bcmongolia.org.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
MONGOLIA INVESTMENT CONFERENCE ON SEPTEMBER 7
The 1st Mongolia Investment Conference on September 7 at Chinggis Khaan Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, will
showcase a range of Mongolian-based opportunities in the resource and financial sectors and
beyond. With participants drawn from the highest levels of the Mongolian government, the
conference offers investors the chance to meet key decision-makers in Mongolia and to receive
insight into the key market drivers, risks and influences that shape the Mongolian market.
Seats are limited and the sponsor, Eurasia Capital, reserves the right to grant access only to
qualified delegates. For more information please contact Ms. Zhyldyz Sadyralieva - +976 99061673
or zhyldyz.sadyralieva@eurasiac.com.
_______________________________________
“BSPOT" on B-TV
BTV (Business TV) now telecasts a 10-minute English-language news program called BSPOT every
evening from Monday to Friday at 21:30, taking most of the stories from the BCM NewsWire.
________________________________________
“MM TODAY” on MNB-TV
BCM is pleased to announce that Mongolian National Broadcasting continues its cooperation with
BCM on ―MM Today‖. This English news program is aired every Friday for 10 minutes and is
scheduled for 21:15 tonight. Tune in to watch this program that reports stories from today‘s BCM
NewsWire.
_______________________________________
NEW POSTINGS ON BCM WEBSITE‟S „MONGOLIAN BUSINESS NEWS‟
The draft Tavan Tolgoi Investment Agreement which was submitted by the Government to
Parliament is posted in both languages to BCM‘s websites, (www.bcmongolia.org) and
(www.bcm.mn), ‗Mongolian Business News‘ for your review.
We are now posting some news stories and analyses relevant to Mongolia on the BCM website's
‗Mongolian Business News‘ as they come, instead of waiting until Friday to put them all together in
the weekly NewsWire. The NewsWire will, however, continue to be issued on Friday, and will
incorporate items that are already on the home page, so that it presents a consolidated account of
the week‘s events.
SPONSORS
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
INFLATION
Year 2006 6.0% [source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSOM)]
Year 2007 *15.1% [source: NSOM]
Year 2008 *22.1% [source: NSOM]
Year 2009 *4.2% [source: NSOM]
July 31, 2010 *9.8% [source: NSOM]
*Year-over-year (y-o-y)
CENTRAL BANK POLICY LOAN RATE
December 31, 2008 9.75% [source: IMF]
March 11, 2009 14.00% [source: IMF]
May 12, 2009 12.75% [source: IMF]
June 12, 2009 11.50% [source: IMF]
September 30, 2009 10.00% [source: IMF]
May 12, 2010 11.00% [source: IMF]
CURRENCY RATES – August 12, 2010
Currency name Currency Rate
US dollars USD 1,333.59
Euro EUR 1,742.20
Japanese yen JPY 15.67
British pound GBP 2,107.47
Hong Kong dollar HKD 171.73
Chinese yuan CNY 196.87
Russian ruble RUB 44.15
South Korean won KRW 1.13
Disclaimer: Except for reporting on BCM‘s activities, all information in the BCM NewsWire is
selected from various news sources. Opinions are those of the respective news sources.

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13.08.2010, NEWSWIRE, Issue 131

  • 1. BUSINESS COUNCIL of MONGOLIA NewsWire www.bcmongolia.org info@bcmongolia.org Issue 131, August 13 2010 NEWS HIGHLIGHTS: Business:  PM told MEC ready to start work at Khusuut coal mine;  NEA to appeal Khan Resources case verdict;  Khan Resources says international community watching progress of case;  Friedland’s 'trillions' claim creates ripples;  Hunnu Coal boss lists opportunities for Mongolian coal;  Oyu Tolgoi LLC to start training workers on September 1;  Hunnu Coal starts trial mining;  National Life Insurance LLC offers new pension plan and health coverage;  Petro Matad hits hydrocarbons, “but you never can tell”;  Rio seeks JV opportunities with Chinese companies;  Despite turnaround, Rio still has problems;  ING's net profit soars. Economy:  Mongolia plans for hi-tech, multipolar economy;  Social and economic data for July;  NASDAQ OMX submits bid to develop Mongolian Stock Exchange;  Fraser survey keeps Mongolia among least attractive mining destinations;  Economic potential of livestock cannot be ignored, says Minister;  Foreign firms show interest in infrastructure projects;  92% of allocated SME loans distributed nationwide;  New pension system being developed;  MP wants personal income tax to contribute more to budget;  Outstanding loans rise 3.1% m-o-m, 15.2% y-o-y;  China’s copper demand “unstoppable”, says Chilean miner;  Where's the copper to come from to meet future demand?  Indonesia in talks with miners over new mining law;  Russia grain export ban sparks price fears;  Russia’s grain ban is the wrong response;  China and the IMF: Getting away with manipulation;  China's calculated yen for the Japanese yen;  China's double gold game;  China cracks down on energy use, shuts 2,000 factories;  China needs slower, better growth;  China shows further signs of slowing:  China’s trade surplus widens further. Politics:  Millennium Development Goals will not be reached in stipulated time;  Minister appeals for restraint over Chinese company’s activity;  Prime Minister urges people to come up with ideas;
  • 2.  Elbegdorj invited to join World Economic Forum’s council on climate change;  Tourism boss wants guides to be more well-informed;  PM orders USD250,000 for Taishir water power plant;  Strong Canadian participation in farm show co-sponsored by Embassy;  Prosecution agency turns 80;  Mayor plans untreated water for toilets, better street lights;  New buildings for both major parties;  U.S. Ambassador attends ceremony at Amarbayasgalant Monastery;  North Korea offers ginseng to pay part of Czech debt;  U.S. ventures into troubled Asian waters. *Click on titles to link to articles. BUSINESS PM TOLD MEC READY TO START WORK AT KHUSUUT COAL MINE Mongolia Energy Corporation (MEC) has told Prime Minister S.Batbold that with the feasibility study completed and its reserve estimated, the Khushuut coal mine will be operational by next October. Not just mining, but its wash plant and enrichment factory will also start working. ―Some civil movements and local people were against the coal mine operation, but all differences have now been resolved in a spirit of harmony,‖ the Governor of Khovd province has said, expressing relief and happiness that the work at the mine would help change the face of Khovd. Over 800 workers are employed at the mine, and over 310 km of road and bridges are planned to be built. According to the Government resolution, the concession agreement will be used to solve the coal export issue. The mine has 85 million tons of coal and roughly half of this is coking coal. This reserve estimate applies only to its studied area. There might be other huge reserve in other areas. In June 2010, MEC awarded a six-year, USD232 million contract to Leighton Asia to develop and operate the mine. Leighton will carry out all mining activities including planning, drilling, transport and handling of coal. Annual production will be 0.5 mt in the first year, rising to 8 mt by fourth year. The estimated mine life is 19 years. The mine is spread over 600 hectares and the total cost of developing it is expected to reach USD202 million in the first two years. Exploration work was carried out by the China National Administration of Coal Geology. The company is planning to conduct further exploration to measure additional coal reserves. The open- pit method will be used to extract coal. Diesel-powered hydraulic excavators will be used. Track dozers will be used for material movement and overburden dump maintenance. Front-end loaders will also be used for pit clean-up and coal loading. MEC is planning to construct a 1,100t/h coal preparation plant to process raw coal. The USD60 million plant will produce coking coal, middling and rejects. It will be operational by the third year of operation. Until the plant is constructed, the coal will be processed using a dry screening process. Source: Mongolia Energy Corporation NEA TO APPEAL KHAN RESOURCES CASE VERDICT The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has chosen to appeal an administrative court`s verdict on July 19 that the NEA's decision to invalidate the mining license held by Khan`s joint venture unit, Central Asian Uranium Co (CAUC), was illegal and invalid. "We are very disappointed that the NEA has chosen to appeal a very clear and definitive ruling of the court. We trust the court will deal with the matter quickly and uphold the ruling in favor of CAUC," said Mr. Grant Edey, president and CEO of Khan Resources. CAUC is a joint venture between Khan, the Russian company Priargunsky and the government of Mongolia. Their chief license is for Khan's Dornod uranium deposit, a former Russian open-pit uranium mine in north eastern Mongolia. It is believed to have resources of 22,000 tons. In April, the NEA canceled the mining and exploration licenses of two of Khan's units claiming specific violations, prompting the Canadian company to challenge the decision in Mongolian courts. It is now unclear whether Khan will continue the process of re-registering its licenses for both its units in the country, as stated previously. The Dornod deposit was coincidentally also the highly sought-after prize of a takeover battle last
  • 3. year for Khan between Russian state uranium miner ARMZ, the world`s fifth largest uranium producer, and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNCC), China`s official agent seeking offshore uranium sources. Source: Khan Resources KHAN RESOURCES SAYS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WATCHING PROGRESS OF CASE Mr. O.Enkhbayar, Director of Khan Resources Inc. in Mongolia, has said that the company expects the Nuclear Energy Agency to re-register its licenses soon, now that the City Administrative Court has ruled in two separate cases that the agency‘s cancellation of these licenses was illegal. He said the progress of the dispute was being watched by the entire international investor community. Khan Resources owns 58% shares in CAUC LLC, with the Mongolian Government and the Russian State-owned company ARMZ equally sharing the remaining 42%. However, Mr. Enkhbayar said, neither ―has invested a single MNT‖ in the uranium project in Mardai in Dornod province, where extraction has not begun because of the low price of uranium. Khan Resources had been holding the license since 1996, with approval of the National Security Council and the Government, and has scrupulously observed all laws and regulations. The government of Mongolia has claimed the grant of license was its share of the investment, and ARMZ has said its share was in the infrastructure in place since the time when the Soviet Russian Government worked the deposits. However, most of the facilities and equipment have been irreparably damaged in the intervening years of inactivity and are presently worth nothing or very little. Source: Zuunii Medee FRIEDLAND‟S „TRILLIONS‟ CLAIM CREATES RIPPLES Confusion surrounding reports about Oyu Tolgoi, Ivanhoe Mines' colossal joint venture with Rio Tinto, has sent ripples throughout the global financial community. A PowerPoint presentation by Ivanhoe Mines chairman Robert Friedland last week at a miners‘ conference in Australia said USD16,078,743,199 was the after-tax net present value (NPV) figure for Oyu Tolgoi based on recent metal prices, but Mr. Friedland also said the figure could rise to "trillions". An Ivanhoe spokesman later clarified that the project indeed contained an estimated USD1 trillion worth of metal in situ, but corrected widespread reports and indicated the NPV was USD16 billion plus. Source: AAP HUNNU COAL BOSS LISTS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONGOLIAN COAL Hunnu Coal chairman Matthew Wood has echoed the warning of Ivanhoe Mines Chairman Robert Friedland that Mongolia could kill the Australian coal industry. He said the warning could become reality as South and Middle Gobi coking and thermal coal begin shipped to Japan and Korea within a few years. Australia-listed Hunnu Coal is busy advancing several promising Mongolian thermal and coking coal projects with minimal start up costs. Mr. Wood can see some shocks ahead for Australia‘s leading export industry. ―I think Australia is going to find it hard to compete with coal 600 kilometers from Beijing with labor at tenth of the price,‖ he has said. ―Mongolia has a highly supportive government and has abolished the stupid taxes Australia is now contemplating. Australia has got some problems.‖ He noted some other advantages of mining coal in Mongolia. ―Australian mines are getting deeper and older. The easy, cheaper coal is gone. These deposits in Mongolia are open cut from surface – they haven‘t even been developed yet, the best years are still coming.‖ The Mongolian government is working hard to expand the coal industry and announced major railway investment plans last month. Mr. Wood said one of the plans was a link from the giant Tavan Tolgoi coking coal field in the South Gobi province, where Hunnu Coal has projects, all the way up to northern Mongolia where it can link up to Russia‘s Trans Siberian railway line. From there, the coal is railed out for export through Vladivostok on the east coast of Russia. ―That‘s a very short boat ride to Korea and Japan,‖ Mr. Wood said. The Japanese and Koreans are extremely keen to get access to Mongolian coal ―so it‘s not just about China; Mongolian coal will be seaborne and that is a real threat to Australia‖. Mr. Wood said, ―These things aren‘t going to happen next month, they are not going to happen next year but people in Queensland will be competing against Mongolian coal well and truly in five to ten years.‖ Source: MiningNews.net OYU TOLGOI LLC TO START TRAINING WORKERS ON SEPTEMBER 1 The Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science recently signed a memorandum of understanding
  • 4. with Oyu Tolgoi LLC on providing training to around 2,500 people who will work in the mines to begin operation in about three years from now. The first phase of the training starts on September 1 and will offer 10 courses in different areas of work for altogether 1,000 people. The training will be held at different centers in Nalaikh, Darkhan, Dornod, Govisumber, Dornogovi, Umnugovi, Selenge, and Khovd. Intending trainees have to be over 24, and must have completed secondary school. The company will bear all costs of the training. Those who pass the course with credit will be given priority when jobs are offered in Oyu Tolgoi. Source: Udriin Sonin HUNNU COAL STARTS TRIAL MINING Hunnu Coal has started trial mining at the Unst Khudag coal mine. The trial open cut operation would produce an initial supply of coal for bulk test work, and for delivery to potential offtake partners for independent test work. Hunnu said in a statement that the trial mine would also deliver important geotechnical and hydrological data, which would be used in the modeling of a much larger up-scaled open cut mine. Offtake agreements were currently being negotiated with both Mongolian and Chinese thermal coal users, said Hunnu. Meanwhile, an extensive drilling program has recently started with the aim of generating an initial Joint Ore Reserves Committee (Jorc) resource during the coming months. The Unst Khudag project has an exploration target of between 250 million tons and 500 million tons, and coal analysis has revealed a high quality thermal coal product. Two drilling rigs were now operating on the current drilling site, with further drilling rigs being sourced to fast-track the exploration program. Earlier in the week, the company said the results of the recently completed exploration drilling program at Unst Khudag and surrounding licenses had been ―extremely encouraging‖. A total of 34 drill holes were completed, 28 located on the existing mining license and six others on the adjoining exploration license. Source: www.miningweekly.com, Hunnu Coal NATIONAL LIFE INSURANCE LLC OFFERS NEW PENSION PLAN AND HEALTH COVERAGE The National Life Insurance LLC has introduced two new products. With its voluntary retirement plan, Mongolians now have the opportunity to be insured in two kinds of retirement plans. The first of these is the existing compulsory retirement plan where the premium is paid into the social insurance fund, while the second aims to set up an endowment fund for insured individuals. The new plan is not meant to compete with the State retirement plan, but targets those who are outside it. It offers greater choice to people on choosing the age from when they wish to draw pension. Employers can offer this plan to motivate their employees to work longer. The insurance company, the only one providing life insurance in Mongolia, has also developed a family health insurance scheme to help people tide over the ever-increasing costs of medical treatment. The scheme covers accidents, illness, hospitalization or surgery. The company has listed the following salient features of the scheme: Worldwide coverage - 24 hours a day/ 7 days a week/ 365 days a year.  Maximum annual cover is USD 1,000,000.  The client can choose the doctor and the hospital, in or outside Mongolia.  Coverage includes both outpatient and in patient expenses, yearly check-ups and local ambulance service.  Those opting for a high-end product will get worldwide emergency medical and travel assistance service from International SOS Medica to the limit of USD 1,000,000.  Service utilized at the company‘s recommended hospitals can be paid for by direct billing. In all other cases reimbursement will cover 80% of treatment cost, subject to the annual limit.  Every policy will be valid for one year and terms are flexible. Three options are presently available:  Platinum plan – Worldwide coverage and overall annual limit is USD 1,000,000.  Gold plan – Worldwide coverage, excluding USA & Canada, except in emergency cases. Maximum annual limit is USD 1,000,000.  Silver plan – coverage area is only Asian countries and annual limit is USD 300,000. Source: www.nationallifedaatgal.com PETRO MATAD HITS HYDROCARBONS, “BUT YOU NEVER CAN TELL” Petro Matad has hit hydrocarbons with its first well in Mongolia. The company has struck oil at its
  • 5. Davsan Tolgol-1 wildcat well in Block XX where good reservoir quality is indicated by fast drilling breaks through all sandstone and conglomerate intervals. Petro Matad CEO Douglas McGay has said, ―To have achieved success on the first well has been both a significant achievement for our company and Mongolia, and also a tribute to our technical team.‖ The company‘s shares had been rising steadily before the drilling started and then rose further with the successful outcome. But you never can tell. Even with great advances in technology the industry-wide success for wildcats is reckoned to be one out of six wells drilled. Mongolia is real frontier territory. Squeezed between China and Russia, Mongolia is twice the size of the UK and France combined yet very sparsely populated. It is a country of climatic extremes, with a short drilling season, creating some major logistical and technical problems for drilling crews. We do not know as yet how much oil has been discovered. Provisional resource estimates for the DT-1 well were put at 122 million barrels. The significance of the strike, however, as Mr. McGay has said, is that it has de-risked the whole block, which is home to a further 14 prospects and where several further wells are planned. Source: Oilbarrel.com RIO SEEKS JV OPPORTUNTIES WITH CHINESE COMPANIES While CEO Tom Albanese thinks that Rio Tinto‘s strategic focus on large, long-life, low-cost assets would serve the company well in ―increasingly volatile‖ markets, its CFO, Mr. Guy Elliott, has said that Rio was also constantly scanning the globe for acquisition opportunities. "In a volatile environment, it's often easier to obtain greater capacity through buying, rather than building." Mr. Elliott said that Rio Tinto would look to identify possible small- and medium-sized acquisition opportunities, and would also be open to "innovative" joint-venture opportunities, particularly with Chinese companies. "All opportunities will be assessed through our proven and rigorous processes, and Rio Tinto will remain focused on value accretion, and not on growth for growth's sake." Source: www.miningweekly.com DESPITE TURNAROUND, RIO STILL HAS PROBLEMS Rio Tinto, the diversified miner worst hit by the financial crisis, surprised the market last week with the strength of its six-month earnings, debt reduction and accelerated capital spending. That followed similarly bullish half year results from rivals Anglo American and Xstrata. But despite the turnaround in Rio's fortunes, its exposure to the oversupplied aluminum market and a legal wrangle over its Mongolian copper investment should keep investors' enthusiasm in check. Rising commodity prices explained most of the jump in Rio's underlying first-half earnings. Net debt tumbled to USD12 billion on June 30 from USD39 billion a year ago. The company restored its interim dividend. And it is no longer neglecting growth. Planned capital expenditure of USD9 billion for 2011 will be USD1 billion above the 2008 peak and 50% more than this year's USD6 billion. Higher revenues should fall faster to the bottom line thanks to last year's USD2.5 billion of cost cuts, but further productivity gains will be hard to achieve. Rio is sensitive to rising energy prices because of its electricity-intensive output of aluminum, the biggest contributor to earnings after iron ore. Meanwhile, Rio is short of growth beyond iron ore. It is reluctant to increase aluminum capacity while the market is oversupplied. Aluminum prices, down 16% during the second quarter, remain under pressure. Infrastructure bottlenecks limit expansion of its Australian coal operations. A legal dispute over how much Rio can increase its indirect stake in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi, potentially one of the world's biggest copper mines, clouds its copper prospects as grades fall at existing mines. Source: The Wall Street Journal Asia ING‟S NET PROFIT SOARS Dutch financial-services company ING Groep NV on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected jump in second-quarter net profit, as strong results at its banking arm offset a weaker performance for insurance. ING, the Netherlands' biggest financial company by market capitalization, posted a net profit of USD1.44 billion for the three months ended June 30, beating analyst expectations. The company, which was bailed out twice by the Dutch government during the global financial crisis and still has to repay €5 billion of State aid, said commercial growth "gained pace", particularly at its bank, and that "market conditions further improved". Source: The Wall Street Journal Asia
  • 6. ECONOMY MONGOLIA PLANS FOR HI-TECH, MULTIPOLAR ECONOMY Mr. B.Ganbat, a departmental head in the National Development and Innovation Committee, says a proper development strategy for Mongolia must have provision for setting up high-tech industry. The present situation, where the country exports only raw and unprocessed output from the mining and agriculture sectors, keeps the economy vulnerable to unpredictable pressures. At present, over 90% of Mongolia‘s exports are produced with low technology and this has to change. Value has to be added to raw output if more wealth is to be generated. Parliament has approved the government policy on how to develop a high technology industrial sector and a transformation of the economy will follow. Exclusive dependence on mining will give way to a multipolar economy. This will need financial institutions with new orientation and the government is working on establishing a State-owned entity likely to be called High Technology, Innovation, and Investment Corporation to help develop a knowledge-based economy. The necessary human resources are being prepared at the National Center of Nano-technology in the National University of Mongolia, at the Food and Biotechnology Center in the Mongolian University of Science and Technology, at the biomedical unit in the Medical Science University, and in Jonon University. He stressed that nothing will happen overnight as the example of other countries shows, but he dismissed doubts that this is beyond Mongolia‘s economic or intellectual capacity, and suggestions that the country should instead import technology. Knowledge and information are freely accessible in a globalized world, and Mongolia will restrict imports to what it cannot design locally, for many possible reasons. Its small population will be a helpful factor in the development of high technology, Mr. Ganbat felt, and added that the Autumn session of Parliament is likely to discuss the subject further. Source: Onoodor SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA FOR JULY The National Statistics Office has released the following data: Consumer price index The national consumer price index dropped 2.8 percent in July against June, but was 8.3 percent more than at the end of 2009 and 9.8 percent more year-over-year. The fall during the month was mainly due to a 6.5 percent decrease in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages. Unemployment The number of active job hunters, as registered at the Labor and Welfare Service Divisions in the provinces and in Ulaanbaatar, reached 39,176 at the end of July, falling 3.7 per cent against the figure for 2009. Government budget, tax collection The General Government Budget (GGB) showed a deficit of MNT129.4 billion at the end of the first seven months of 2010, MNT152.2 billion less than in the same period last year. The current account, however, showed a surplus of MNT198.5 billion. Tax revenue increased 65.5 percent, with a 330 percent rise in windfall profit tax receipts, 230 percent rise in corporate income tax and 629 percent rise in value added tax. Share trading Some 2.3 million shares valued at MNT3.1 billion were traded at the Mongolian Stock Exchange in the 20 trading days in July. Foreign trade Total turnover of trade with 120 countries in the first seven months of the year reached USD 3,207.7 million, 59.7 percent more than in the same period last year. Exports rose 66.8 percent and imports 53.6 percent, with the deficit of USD130.7 million standing 20.3 percent below the corresponding figure in 2009. Industrial output Total industrial output in the first seven months of 2010 rose 15.9 percent (at 2005 constant prices) over that in the same period last year. Social insurance and allowances
  • 7. Of the total 501,400 employees covered by social insurance at the end of July, 40.7 percent worked for the government and the rest for private establishments. The total amount disbursed as pension was MNT194.1 billion, of which retirement pension accounted for 73.0 percent, disability pension for 12.9 percent, breadwinner loss pension for 7.3 percent, and military pension for 6.8 percent. MNT14.6 billion was paid in social welfare allowances to 55,700 people, 4.7 per cent more than on 2009, with the amount rising 0.7 per cent. MNT174.7 billion has so far this year been given to 2.5 million people from the Human Development Fund. Construction Domestic entities were responsible for executing 91.7 percent of the construction and installation work altogether worth MNT84.8 billion. Passengers and freight The railway transported more passengers and more freight than last year, and as a result revenue increased 27.9 percent. Airlines transported 27.6 percent more passengers and 22.7 percent more freight. Revenue increased 17.8 percent. Source: Montsame NASDAQ OMX SUBMITS BID TO DEVELOP MONGOLIAN STOCK EXCHANGE A consortium comprising Mosdaq of Mongolia and NASDAQ OMX, the world‘s largest exchange company with trading, technology and public company service capability spanning 6 continents, is among those bidding to be chosen to manage and coordinate the work of the proposed Mongolian Stock Exchange joint venture. The Government expects the JV to substantially increase both the volume and worth of stocks traded at the exchange, to raise total market capitalization to 46% of GDP, and to ensure that at least 10% of all capital investment in Mongolia is channeled through the stock exchange. Following submission of tender material to the State Property Committee, two representatives of the consortium – Mr. Ulf Carlsson, General Manager, NASDAQ OMX North Asia & Japan, and Mr. J. Erdenebat of Mosdaq – answered media questions earlier in the week. Asked if it is reasonable to expect the joint venture to perform as an international exchange without corresponding changes in the country‘s economic scene and legal environment, Mr. Carlsson conceded that big investors usually do not favor financial markets in developing countries with a small economy, but the consortium was confident that use of state-of-the-art technology will change that mindset, as long as Mongolia followed international norms in implementing laws, setting up a stable tax network, and conducting corporate business in a transparent way. The Government wants the selected company to provide the funds for the entire program and has not specified how it will be allowed to recoup its investment. Mr. Erdenebat declined to go into details, but indicated they would be interested in shares of the Mongolian Stock Exchange when it becomes a joint venture. Source: Onoodor FRASER SURVEY KEEPS MONGOLIA AMONG LEAST ATTRACTIVE MINING DESTINATIONS Mongolia remains among the 10 least unattractive places to work in, according to an update of the Fraser Institute's annual survey of mining companies. The other 9 in the bottom square are Ecuador, Kazakhstan, Bolivia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Russia, Colorado, Indonesia, and Tasmania. The Canadian province of Alberta has replaced Quebec as the jurisdiction viewed as most attractive to for investment by industry executives. Unsurprisingly, Australian jurisdictions suffered the biggest drop in ranking compared with the previous survey released in mid-April, after then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd caused an uproar in the mining industry at home and abroad with proposals in May for a 40% resources super profits tax (RSPT). The big take-away from the updated survey is that sudden changes in mining policies, without consultation with the industry, run the risk of scaring away investors, survey coordinator Fred McMahon said on Wednesday. The question now is whether other governments will be less likely to impose big changes after watching the Australian story unfold, he said in an interview. High commodity prices can make it tempting for governments to introduce changes that return more mining revenue to State coffers. ―It is of great concern, and it will be interesting to see whether other rational jurisdictions take a lesson from Australia,‖ Mr. McMahon commented. Read more… ―The mining industry's response to these things will depend on, one, the magnitude – whether it's reasonable and unreasonable, and two, whether it is done in such a way as to give miners
  • 8. confidence in the stability of the mining regime, or whether it is done in a way that will make them very concerned about future ugly surprises down the road,‖ Mr. McMahon commented. The Fraser Institute, a Canadian public policy think-tank, conducted an update to its annual survey during the month of June, ―following the global recovery in commodity prices and the introduction of new regulatory hurdles and taxation in many jurisdictions‖. The results are based on the opinions of mining executives representing 429 mineral exploration and development companies on the investment climate of 51 jurisdictions around the world. Source: www.miningweekly.com ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF LIVESTOCK CANNOT BE IGNORED, SAYS MINISTER Mr. Kh.Zoljargal, Deputy Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry, has said that contrary to the prevalent practice of entrusting the National Emergency Mitigation Agency with the responsibility of storing hay and fodder, this year every district has been asked to prepare 100-180 tons of hay so that there is no problem with local distribution in the event of urgent need. The Asian Development Bank has given MNT3 billion to be distributed among herders who have lost all their animals. Each such household is getting MNT300,000 to replenish their herd. The Government has no other plans to help herders in this, but livestock borrowing is in full swing among them. Mr. Zoljargal said emphasis on mining and infrastructure development must not underestimate the contribution livestock meat and other products can make to the national economy. Once their safety is guaranteed by international standards of health and hygiene, export of meat, guts, skin and hides can easily earn USD300 million annually, a figure that will rise if Mongolia can also produce end products. The Minister was confident domestic meat prices can be kept stable with proper planning. ―There is no reason the Government should take the responsibility to provide cheap meat for those who can afford high prices, but the interests of the comparatively less affluent and more vulnerable sections, who consume goat and horse meat, should be served by storing enough of these in the national reserve,‖ he said. If government policy regulations keep these meats cheap, the price of lamb and beef can also be kept stable, he said. Source: Udriin Sonin FOREIGN FIRMS SHOW INTEREST IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS Officials of the Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction, and Urban Development say that several foreign companies have shown interest in investing in infrastructure-related projects. The recently passed Concession Law applies to 99 projects, of which 72 are under the purview of the Ministry. Most of the proposals so far received relate to road and apartment construction and they have come from companies in Russia, China, Germany and Canada. The officials are optimistic that preliminary work on the railway would begin in two months and that technical and economical assessments of projects to be included in the Sainshand industrial complex would also be over before long. Both have already attracted considerable interest from foreign companies. Source: Udriin Sonin 92% OF ALLOCATED SME LOANS DISTRIBUTED NATIONWIDE Reported problems with collateral, particularly in the provinces, notwithstanding, 92 percent of the projected MNT30 billion has been disbursed as loans to small and medium enterprises in all 21 provinces and six districts of Ulaanbaatar. Mr. D.Batmagnai, officer in charge of Finance and Investment of SME, has said the target has been met 99 percent in Ulaanbaatar and 95 percent in the provinces. Loans have been given through Khan Bank, XacBank and Savings Bank in the countryside and through Capitron Bank, Golomt Bank and Ulaanbaatar Bank in Ulaanbaatar. He admitted that collateral was a problem as people in the countryside in general do not have enough assets to offer as security. However, many proposals were also rejected because the banks did not consider them deserving of support. Organizations and individuals submitted about 6,000 proposals and only about 10 percent of them have received these special loans. Most of these are in manufacturing and refining raw materials. Many viable proposals that were rejected this year could be reconsidered next year, he said. The Government spent MNT1 billion to encourage SMEs in 2008. This works out to only about MNT60-70 million per province. In 2009 and 2010, when MNT30 billion was budgeted nationwide, one province got about MNT700 million. But even this is not enough, according to the official. Source: News.mn
  • 9. NEW PENSION SYSTEM BEING DEVELOPED Procedures are being formulated to allow Mongolians not enlisted in the mandatory pension scheme under the State social insurance fund to join a new scheme. Mr. S.Ganbold, Head of Financial Regulatory Agency, has said the scheme will benefit the 400,000 or so people outside the present scheme who thus have no pension cover. Also, the proposed scheme will add variety to the insurance sector. Among the various advantages of the new scheme is one that allows the heirs of an insured person who dies before his policy matures to claim part of the premium paid, and another that permits people to choose from policies that run for varied terms. Source: Udriin Sonin MP WANTS PERSONAL INCOME TAX TO CONTRIBUTE MORE TO BUDGET MP D.Baldan-Ochir (MPRP) feels that the tax policy needs change, so that personal income tax is made to contribute more to the tax budget than at present. He rules out tinkering with the rates of corporate income tax, as that might discourage badly needed fresh investment, but he thinks the present situation, where only 5% of the State budget comes from personal income tax, is unsustainable. With corporate income tax expected to provide 90% of the budget, tax inspectors focus on companies and there are frequent cases of unnecessary litigation. Mr. Baldan-Ochir says the secret of development of countries like those in Europe, the USA, and Japan is their collection of personal income tax. Mongolian citizens must understand that paying tax is not paying any sort of penalty and is also not something to be avoided. There can be no social development without increased tax revenue and everybody who pays some tax contributes to this development. He listed four ―justifications‖ for his demand for bringing more people under the personal income tax net: It will eliminate the need for distribution of social welfare, establish social justice, curb corruption, and give citizens value for their money. Source: Undesnii Shuudan OUTSTANDING LOANS RISE 3.1% M-O-M, 15.2% Y-O-Y The Central Bank reports that money supply (broad money or M2) at the end of July was 0.6 percent more than at the end of June and 41.2 percent more than in July, 2009. Outstanding loans at the end of July rose 3.1 percent over the end of June, and 15.2 percent over July, 2009. Principals in arrears fell 1.9 per cent against June 2010, and 22.9 percent against July, 2009. Non- performing loans at the end of July rose 2.9 percent over June, and 17.4 percent over July, 2009. Source: The Central Bank CHINA‟S COPPER DEMAND “UNSTOPPABLE”, SAYS CHILEAN MINER China's copper demand is expected to grow at 8 percent this year from last year, and at a similar pace next year, Mr. Rodrigo Toro, a senior sales executive of Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has said. "The growth of demand in China is practically unstoppable," he said, adding that Beijing's tighter monetary policy was a healthy dose to control the country's breakneck growth. "We are happy to see the demand in China will continue at very healthy rate, not as big as would be at 12 percent GDP growth, because producers would not be able to respond to that additional demand." He said the global copper demand growth would be 4 percent this year, but added it might improve next year if the economy picked up pace. "Treatment charges for copper concentrate will remain extremely low for quite some time. The overcapacity in smelting and refining is so big that the demand for concentrate will exceed largely the possibility of supply of copper concentrate," he said. Source: Reuters.com WHERE‟S THE COPPER TO COME FROM TO MEET FUTURE DEMAND? "We need more copper in the next 20 years than was mined in the last 110 years," Ivanhoe Chairman Robert Friedland is reported as saying. "Those of us in the business don't have any idea where this metal is going to come from." He has a point. Most serious analysts of the copper sector point to declining resources and grades at the world's largest copper mines which are not being replaced sufficiently by new deposits being brought on stream - and those major deposits that are being considered and developed carry, for the most part much lower grades and require huge capital to get them off the ground. There are exceptions - Tenke Fungurume in the DRC for example and other projects in that country - but the political and security situation there still impacts development and slows down the availability of capital from still risk-averse banks.
  • 10. Mr. Friedland is a very astute and prescient judge of the mining sector, as well as having the foresight - and the luck - to run companies successful in making major discoveries - Voiseys Bay, Oyu Tolgoi. He deals a hard bargain in offloading his interests to the majors who have the clout, and the capital raising ability, to develop them which does not always make him popular amongst his peers. However in his views on copper most would undoubtedly agree with his analysis and be enthused for the future of copper price as a result. But, it's unlikely to be a smooth ride for copper ahead, whatever the longer term prospects may suggest. Price performance so far this year has been, to say the least, pretty volatile and this pattern is likely to continue as positive, and negative, assessments continue to be made on the state of the global economy on which the copper market is very dependent. China and reports on speeding up or slowing down of growth there, will be a major factor, as will speculation and running down, or building up, of inventories. Read more… Copper is also vulnerable to disruptions - particularly when the price rises and the copper miners are seen as making excessive profits. Increasingly aware labor forces demand a higher share of the pot, as do governments strapped for cash to meet their social programs who see miners as an easy target. Although the backlash against the Australian labor government for trying to bleed the industry, which may well bring it down despite a prior huge lead in the polls, may make other governments think twice. But, there are few areas of the world where mining is seen in such a positive light as Australia where it is given much of the credit, deservedly so, for keeping the country out of the economic hell that has decimated the finances of many of the older Western economies. Political disruptions may also occur as new mine development moves into countries where political stability is more suspect. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is one such environment. In the old autocratic Belgian Congo days the country was one of the world's top copper and cobalt producers, but this dwindled to virtually nothing under a succession of corrupt governments and while this has received a huge new boost under the current Kabila government there is no telling whether this volatile nation will descend into anarchy again. Hopefully not, but recent developments like the treatment of First Quantum, which has spent major capital sums on its DRC developments, still suggests some major underlying governance problems. Growth in global copper requirements is almost assured though as it is very much an ‗infrastructure' dependent metal and growth aspirations of BRIC economies - and virtually all developing nations - where aspirations for Western-type wealth and consumerism is forcing unprecedented levels of global growth. This too will impact other metals and minerals, but few quite so heavily as copper. The future for the red metal looks strong - but will we be able, as Mr. Friedland suggested, to supply the world's requirements over the next 20 years. Source: mineweb.com INDONESIA IN TALKS WITH MINERS OVER NEW MINING LAW Indonesia is in talks with mining companies to try and adjust their contracts in line with a new law that aims to boost government revenue and at the same time attract investments through streamlined procedures. The talks so far have focused on adjusting royalties and extensions. The new law was passed last year to replace one dating back 41 years. It aims to squeeze more benefits from rich mineral reserves in Indonesia, the world's top exporter of tin and thermal coal and a key producer of zinc, copper, nickel and gold. Industry has so far not strongly opposed the new law as commodity prices are now high enough to ensure sufficient return on investments in spite of any increased royalties, and also because it promises to make mining in the country simpler. The new law is not binding on companies that already have contracts to operate in Indonesia. The government can only persuade them to change some parts of the contract, including those on royalties, to bring them in line with the new rules. Any forced change may be considered a breach of contract and may risk international arbitration. In the past, such disputes have resulted in hefty losses for the government. Indonesia has struggled to lure foreign investment into mining in recent years, its difficulties compounded by some politicians taking a nationalist line on resource exploitation and also because of uncertainty over regulations. The government has issued two new implementing regulations under the new mining law this year to allow firms to start obtaining mining permits and speed issuance for existing investors. Source: Mineweb.com
  • 11. RUSSIA GRAIN EXPORT BAN SPARKS PRICE FEARS The prices of everyday staples such as bread, flour and beer are set to rise sharply after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week imposed a ban on grain exports, triggering panic in commodities markets and sending wheat prices to their highest since the 2007-08 global food crisis. The ban would take effect from August 15 and last until December 31, a spokesman for Mr. Putin said. A severe drought has devastated crops and wildfires have spread across Russia in the past weeks. The move, which caught traders and food producers by surprise, pushed the price of wheat to its highest in two years and evoked memories of the last time the then Soviet Union suffered a catastrophic crop failure in 1972. And Moscow introduced export restrictions during the 2007-08 global food crisis, triggering a wave of panic buying from North Africa and Middle East importers. European wheat prices rose more than 12 per cent following the announcement. U.S. wheat futures also jumped and are up more than 80 per cent since mid-June, the fastest rally in nearly 40 years. There were fears that food price inflation could take off and that the world could even suffer a repeat of the 2008 food crisis should the big shortfall in wheat output persist. Prices of other crops including barley, corn and rapeseed also jumped sharply. The worst drought in more than a century in the Black Sea region has led to widespread alarm. Forecasts for the Russian grain crop have been falling daily. The UN has attempted to quell growing panic in the markets, saying that fears of a repetition of the 2007-08 food crisis were unjustified. But it also cut its forecast for global wheat production by 25 million tons to 651million tons, the biggest revision in 20 years, and warned that a continuation of the current weather conditions could affect planting of the next Russian crop, with ―potentially serious implications‖ for global wheat supplies in the 2011-12 season. Russia provided 14.5% of global exports from the 2009-10 crop, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. Moreover, it has played a key role in meeting rising import demand, exporting 17.5 million metric tons of wheat, up from less than one million in 2000-01. Mongolia imports a large quantity of flour from Russia to meet domestic demands. Source: The Financial Times RUSSIA‟S GRAIN BAN IS THE WRONG RESPONSE Two years ago, rocketing prices for agricultural commodities sparked food riots in the streets of some developing countries. Prices have been rising sharply again this year, especially for grains such as wheat. Last week, they shot up after Russia imposed an export ban on grains until the end of this year. Another food crisis does not look out of the question. Not for nothing did Lenin once call grain the ―currency of currencies‖. Its price not only determines the cost of staples such as bread; it is also used as animal feed. Russia‘s ban – announced theatrically by its Prime Minister, Mr. Vladimir Putin – was blamed on droughts and fires that have ravaged some of its wheat-growing districts. These have depleted the summer harvest and may cause the winter crop to fail too. But while it is possible to sympathize with the Russian predicament, the ban is counterproductive. It is both a costly mechanism for protecting the welfare of less well-off Russians and makes a rerun of 2008 more likely. The embargo comes against the backdrop of a tight commodities market. True, the picture is brighter than it was two years ago International Monetary Fund‘s. Grain inventories, which act as a buffer against shortages, are much higher. If this winter‘s harvests in Argentina and Australia hold up, supplies should be adequate to meet demand. But the ban introduces a worrying variable. Traders, spooked by Russia‘s ban, may now seek to hoard supplies. Other countries may copy Moscow‘s export ban to protect their own domestic markets. Despite the plumper supply cushion, it would not take much to pitch markets back into a world of shortages and sky-high prices. Read more… The crisis of 2008 was the first such upheaval for 30 years. To face a second so soon should be a wake-up call. It would be irresponsible to expect the benign conditions of the past to return. Things can be done. Countries should invest more in irrigation projects to improve the quality of the increasingly marginal land under cultivation and make more use of hardy GM crops. A bigger strategic grain reserve to absorb shocks may be needed. Equally importantly, there is a need for an international system, perhaps under the auspices of the World Trade Organization, to set out the rules under which countries can suspend exports of agricultural commodities. That would make the markets more predictable and limit the risk of self- feeding crises developing. The alternative is more crises. Source: The Financial Times
  • 12. CHINA AND THE IMF: GETTING AWAY WITH MANIPULATION A growing list of countries — from the United States to the European Union to Brazil — have complained that China has been cheapening its currency. So it is positive news — of a sort — that China agreed to submit this year to the International Monetary Fund‘s annual review of exchange rate and economic policies. But nobody should interpret this as a major shift in policy. Indeed, the fund‘s economists reported last week that ―the renminbi remains substantially below the level that is consistent with medium-term fundamentals.‖ The new openness means China is more comfortable that it can get away with the manipulation. It agreed to the review only after the fund softened its standards for determining whether countries are manipulating their exchange rate to boost exports, in violation of IMF rules, and to give countries like China ―the benefit of any reasonable doubt‖ when evaluating their policies. True, China has relied less on exports to fuel growth since the financial crisis started. This defused some criticism of its currency policy. Its trade surplus fell by half in the last two years as recession forced many countries to slash their imports while China‘s fast recovery boosted its own imports, aiding growth overseas. And in June it said it would allow the renminbi to gradually inch upward against the dollar. Unfortunately, some of that will be short-lived. Even through the global downturn, China‘s share of world exports grew to nearly 10 percent. China‘s exports are now rebounding, and its trade surplus is expected to bottom out this year. Since the announced policy change, its currency has risen little against the dollar and has actually lost value against the euro and the Japanese yen. Yet China cannot be left off the hook. The IMF must monitor China‘s trade surplus to assess its drag on global demand. If the fund‘s economists are proved right, its executive board should reassess its conclusions, call a manipulator a manipulator, and persuade the international community to make China stop. Read more… The IMF seems to view the outlook as a glass half full. Its executive board welcomed the change in China‘s currency policy, and ―a number‖ of its directors — which in fund-speak means 6 to 9 out of 24 — disagreed with the staff‘s view that the renminbi is undervalued. This tolerant attitude is probably wise. Retaliating against China with punitive trade barriers, as urged by some in Congress, would spark a tit-for-tat confrontation that would endanger economic recovery. China also is doing other things — increasing pension payments and unemployment checks, and providing subsidies for college education and purchases of homes and durable goods — in order to increase domestic consumption and reduce reliance on exports. Source: The New York Times CHINA‟S CALCULATED YEN FOR THE JAPANESE YEN A strong yen is giving Tokyo an awful headache. Beijing is adding to the problem. If things get worse, these old rivals could find themselves facing off in global currency markets. China has ramped up its stockpiling of yen this year, snapping up USD5.3 billion worth of the currency in June, Japan's Ministry of Finance reported Monday. China has already bought USD20 billion worth of yen financial assets this year, almost five times as much as it did in the previous five years combined. That's making the yen even stronger than it otherwise would be. There are a few explanations for this activity. China's currency managers have long stated their desire to diversify the nation's foreign exchange horde away from dollars. More recently, Beijing signaled it will use a basket of its biggest trade partners' currencies to manage the yuan's levels, rather than only the dollar. That basket undoubtedly includes yen. Economists from Standard Chartered believe the South Korean won and Canadian and Australian dollars are also in the mix. Fundamental factors are also underpinning the yen's strength. Converging interest rates in the U.S. and Japan take away an incentive for Japanese investors to send yen abroad and for global hedge funds to favor the yen for carry trades. Japan's persistent current account surplus creates structural demand for yen, too. But it doesn't take much for China to move the Japanese currency. A one percentage point shift of China's reserves into yen equals a month's worth of Japan's current account surplus. And news that China has a new found love for the Japanese currency has hedge funds piling onto the brawny yen story. Read more… Intended or not, Beijing's yen buying will benefit Chinese exporters that compete with Japan, and pressure Japanese companies to move even more fabrication facilities to lower-cost China. Conversely, the stronger currency is threatening Japan's export-led profit recovery: Already the yen is well above levels at which major Japanese manufacturers have based their earnings and sales
  • 13. forecasts. It's up to Japan to respond. If the dollar drops to below 83 yen from 85.42 currently, the Bank of Japan could inject more cash into the banking system, a yen weakener, Nomura's currency strategist Taisuke Tanaka notes. Such levels could also move Japan's finance ministry to direct official yen selling in currency markets, something it's not done since 2004. If it does intervene, though, the ministry might find the People's Bank of China a willing buyer-- gladly vacuuming up enough yen to stifle its efforts. Source: The Wall Street Journal Asia CHINA‟S DOUBLE GOLD GAME Let‘s play a little game called "Spot the Gold Price", shall we? Our friend gold had bounced in the wake of poor economic figures from the U.S., in particular job losses. Back up through USD1200/oz, it scored at the expense of the dollar. In a continuing paradox, we have the all-important China contribution. The Central Bank is not going to stockpile gold seriously, or so it leads us to believe, but is certainly encouraging its citizens to do so. They bought 73 tons in 2009. That is only 3% of newly-mined supply, but up from 18 tons in 2007. This will surely be followed by a range of gold-based financial products. So, why the double game? At the last count, China officially held 1,054 tons, which is worth USD38 billions right now. That is 1.6% of its total reserves of USD2,000 billion, mostly held in U.S. dollars. Now that is over 50kt of gold, if converted, so we can't go there. But China mines - and is the world's largest miner - about 352 tpy. That's 10.5 million ounces. If every Chinese type person bought just half an ounce - that's 10% of GDP, those 1.3 billion customers would mop up 650 million ounces, or 22,000 tpy. Which is just plain silly. Isn't it? So let's deduct the old, the young, the sick, lame and lazy and divide China's appetite by ten. That is still 2,200 tpy, almost all the world's mined output. It won't happen. Will it? But there is more to China's strategy than meets the eye, is there not? Hold a lot of gold within your borders, but let your citizens pay for it: mops up their surplus funds, stops them becoming excessive about consumerism, and keeps the fear factor on the boil - never a bad thing with 1.3 billion of them on the loose. But what is the end game? For there surely is one. Read more… There will come a time - of that let there be no doubt - when China's foreign exchange reserves will be dissipated, when it will need the only true collateral the world has ever recognized: Gold. It will appeal to the hearts and minds of its citizens in authoritarian fashion. It will offer them paper in exchange for their personal gold holdings. Being China, it might be exchange or the firing squad. There is precedent. America's Roosevelt did it in 1933. Germany's Hitler did it in 1940 and Britain's Wilson pulled off the same trick in 1964. But for the short term - which in China's case can be a century - it is perhaps a compelling reason not to go short of gold. Source: David.Hargreaves@WH-Ireland.Co.Uk , used in Mineweb.com CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON ENERGY USE, SHUTS 2,000 FACTORIES Earlier this summer, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China promised to use an ―iron hand‖ to improve his country‘s energy efficiency, and a growing number of businesses are now discovering that it feels like a fist. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology quietly published a list late Sunday of 2,087 steel mills, cement works and other energy-intensive factories required to close by September 30. Energy analysts described it as a significant step toward the country‘s energy- efficiency goals, but not enough by itself to achieve them. Over the years, provincial and municipal officials have sometimes tried to block Beijing‘s attempts to close aging factories in their jurisdictions. They have particularly sought to protect older steel mills and other heavy industrial operations that frequently have thousands of employees and have sometimes provided workers with housing, athletic facilities and other benefits since the 1950s or 1960s. To prevent such local obstruction this time, the ministry said in a statement on its Web site that the factories on its list would be barred from obtaining bank loans, export credits, business licenses and land. The ministry even warned that their electricity would be shut off, if necessary. The goal of the factory closings is ―to enhance the structure of production, heighten the standard of technical capability and international competitiveness and realize a transformation of industry from being big to being strong‖, the ministry said. Read more…
  • 14. The announcement was the latest in a series of Chinese moves to increase energy efficiency. The National Development and Reform Commission, which is the government‘s most powerful economic planning agency, announced last Friday that it had forced 22 provinces to halt their practice of providing electricity at discounted prices to energy-hungry industries like aluminum production. Even if China meets its energy-efficiency goal this year and its carbon goal by 2020, its total carbon emissions are still on track to rise steeply in the next decade, according to forecasts by the International Energy Agency. That is because of factors including rapid growth in the Chinese economy, growing car ownership and rising ownership of household appliances. The current Chinese five-year plan calls for using 20 percent less energy this year for each unit of economic output than in 2005. But surging production by heavy industry since last winter has put in question China‘s ability to meet the target. The success or failure of China‘s energy-efficiency campaign is being watched closely not just by economists, who cite the campaign as one reason that growth of the Chinese economy has slowed down a little this summer, but also by climate scientists. China‘s energy consumption rose so sharply last winter that it produced the biggest surge ever of greenhouse gases by a single country. Power plants burned more coal to generate enough electricity to meet demand. As China has become increasingly dependent on imported oil and coal, its national security establishment has become more visibly involved in energy policy and energy security, including efforts to improve energy efficiency. Efficiency improved 14.4 percent in the first four years of the current plan, only to deteriorate by 3.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, according to official statistics. Mr. Wen responded by convening a special meeting of the cabinet in May to address the situation. The ministry said in its statement that the factories to be closed would include 762 that make cement, 279 that produce paper, 175 that manufacture steel and 84 that process leather. Closing factories is more palatable now than in the past because a labor shortage in many cities has made it easier for workers, particularly young ones, to find other jobs. Source: The New York Times CHINA NEEDS SLOWER, BETTER GROWTH Earlier this year China posted robust growth of 11.9 percent, prompting worries that the country was overheating. Recently the mood has changed, with signs of a slowdown. Manufacturing output grew at its slowest rate for 17 months in July, while predictions suggest third-quarter growth will dip below 10 per cent. Concerns are now being voiced that a faltering of the Chinese economy will imperil the global recovery. Such short-term concerns are premature, says Mr. Yu Yongding, an academician with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former member of the monetary policy committee of the Chinese central bank. He recalls that China posted growth in 2009 of 9.1 percent, a merely respectable achievement by Chinese standards, but impressive nonetheless in the midst of a global financial catastrophe. Most of this came from new infrastructure investment, which probably added 8 percentage points, offsetting a sharp fall in exports. Yet although China‘s huge stimulus package was a great success, it also stored up serious problems for the future. Rushed investment in roads and buildings leads to waste, which will have dire long-term consequences for China‘s improved, but still fragile, banking system. Investment in infrastructure avoids overcapacity, but brings returns only if it goes hand in hand with stronger manufacturing and other growth. Where will tolls come from if there is no traffic on an eight-lane highway? How then will the bank loans be repaid? China has concentrated obsessively on GDP growth for far too long. But growth is not a good excuse for postponing much-needed structural adjustment. This readjustment, when it comes, will inevitably lead to a slowdown. But it is the only way to lay a solid foundation for sustainable growth in the long run. And the longer the delay, the more painful the adjustment will be. Read more… Such issues have been under-examined as Chinese policymakers grapple with how to halt a housing boom. Low interest rates and excess liquidity created by 2009‘s huge credit expansion have driven house prices to dizzying heights. From January 2009 to May 2010, in 36 big cities, residential house prices increased by 40 percent. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen rises were even greater. Justifiable or not, high house prices have caused immense public resentment, and as a result China‘s leaders have of late been attempting to undo some of their own work. Over-expansionary monetary policy began to be withdrawn in the second half of 2009. Credit expansion was reined in. Policies to contain the fever of property development also followed. For the first time, both a
  • 15. property tax and a capital gains tax are under discussion. Thankfully, these measures seem to be working, with property sales cooling. Indeed, weaker growth this year is mostly explained by deliberate policy changes in Beijing. Europe‘s sovereign debt crisis and the slowdown of the global economy may have an impact later this year, but they have not done so yet. Now the real economic debate in China focuses on whether the government should move again, this time to reverse the new slowdown it itself initiated. Some western economists, in particular, worry that China‘s property market is beginning a collapse that will hit the nation‘s banking system. But, in my view, wobbling because of the current dip in growth would be a mistake. Yes, at the moment there is a tug of war between house buyers and property developers. Whether prices fall will depend on who blinks first. But this, in turn, depends on whether both believe in the credibility of government policy. If the government stands firm, house prices will fall. Of course, if controls are implemented haphazardly the government risks such a collapse. But currently a 30 per cent drop is the worst-case scenario. Chinese households have low debt levels and even a dramatic fall could be borne by well-capitalized banks. Overall, therefore, China‘s short-term fiscal position remains much better than almost all other big economies. It is in the long run that all is not well. A viable economy cannot be built on steel and concrete alone, and China‘s problem is more its poor allocation of resources than the bursting of a property bubble. At present real estate, at around a quarter of total investment, simply takes up too much economic room. The economy‘s list of structural problems is also long, including over-dependence on investment and external demand, an unacceptably wide gap in incomes, too few social goods and an underdevelopment of the service sector. Slow progress in anti-corruption campaigns and institutional reforms are also worrying. In the long-run, however, it is the pattern of growth that needs most urgent attention. Investment and exports have been the twin engines of China‘s growth. But investment growth will soon hit a ceiling imposed by social, environmental and natural resources. The danger is that deflation will set in and the growth process will break down. Increasing exports can postpone, but not prevent, this reverse. Following the increase in the size of the Chinese economy and the general slowdown of the global economy, China‘s export drive is also crashing into a stone wall of trade friction and protectionism. To sustain growth it must lower investment and rebalance its current account. Improving the quality, rather than the quantity, of growth should be the priority. Source: The Financial Times CHINA SHOWS FURTHER SIGNS OF SLOWING China‘s economy continued to slow last month as efforts to cool the property market and reduce energy consumption began to bite, even as consumer price inflation rose further. The rates of increase for industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales each fell last month, while new banks loans and money supply growth also slowed. However, inflation jumped to 3.3 percent, higher than the 3 percent target the government has set for the year and up from 2.9 percent the month before. In contrast, factory-gate inflation fell back from 6.4 percent to 4.8 percent. The latest figures come a day after data showing a sharp decline in the pace of growth in imports in July, adding to signs that demand is waning. Most economists argue that China is witnessing a controlled slowing from the potential overheating of earlier in the year, rather than a new slump, but the pace of the slowdown has caught some analysts by surprise and is prompting calls for the government to shift course and unwind some of its tightening policies. Read more… The year-on-year rate of increase of industrial output fell from 13.7 percent in June to 13.4 percent last month, while the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment cooled to 24.9 percent compared with 25.5 percent the same period last year. Retail sales increased by 17.9 percent year-on-year, down from 18.3 percent in June. Taking into account inflation, the 14.6 percent real increase was the lowest since February last year. Most economists said the rise in consumer prices was temporary and partly caused by recent flooding disrupting food supplies. But one of the principal risks facing China in the coming months is a sharpening spike in inflation, which would reduce the government‘s room to support the economy if the slowdown gathers pace. Source: The Financial Times
  • 16. CHINA‟S TRADE SURPLUS WIDENS FURTHER China‘s trade surplus jumped in July to its highest level in 18 months, raising new questions about whether the country‘s currency remains undervalued despite government efforts to introduce a more flexible exchange rate. The trade surplus for July increased to USD28.7 billion, well ahead of the USD20 billion recorded the month before and significantly above analyst forecasts, according to data released on Tuesday. The pace of increase in exports actually fell last month to 38.1 per cent, year-on-year, down from 43.9 per cent in June. However, import growth slowed even more, moving up 22.7 per cent against 34.1 per cent in June. The rising trade surplus will increase the political pressure on Beijing to appreciate its currency more rapidly. Earlier in the year, Beijing was able to point to a series of much smaller monthly surpluses – and a trade deficit in March – as evidence that the economy was already rebalancing and was much less dependent on exports. However the figures over the last three months suggest that the surplus in the second half of the year is likely to be much larger. Yet the slowdown in import growth in China could also be a reflection of a significant cooling in the domestic economy, which would make policymakers in Beijing more reluctant to strengthen the currency sharply. China signaled a major shift in exchange rate policy in late June when it said would abandon the de facto currency peg it had operated for the previous two years against the US dollar. But since then there has only been very modest movement in the exchange rate, with the renminbi rising 0.78 per cent against the US dollar. Source: The Financial Times POLITICS MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS WILL NOT BE REACHED IN STIPULATED TIME The 3rd national report on realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has concluded that despite steady progress, it will be difficult to achieve them by 2015. The report was presented at a ceremony last week in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that was attended by, among others, Mr. Ajay Chhibber, a UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific. A team made up of representatives of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos and China held a meeting to assess the reports and concluded that Mongolia "reduced its poverty rate by only 1.4 per cent in the last 14-year period and this is not a satisfactory indicator". Source: Ardiin Erkh MINISTER APPEALS FOR RESTRAINT OVER CHINESE COMPANY‟S ACTIVITY The recent clash between employees of GCC Air and local people arose because citizens of three districts feel the gold extraction activity of the Chinese company in Uvs province is responsible for severely polluting the Orlogo River. Community representatives told Prime Minister S. Batbold when he was in Uvs during his tour of the provinces of their unhappiness at the way ―misinformation is being released‖, and at the way police had acted, opening fire and arresting people. They asked him to take immediate action to halt the operation of the company, to punish the guilty policemen, to release detained citizens, and to compensate losses to the environment and individual lives. State Secretary of the Ministry of Minerals and Energy Ch.Khurelbaatar has said the company owns two mining licenses covering 108.9 hectares and has so far paid MNT286.5 million in taxes. However, they are yet to submit any environmental evaluation report to the Ministry of Nature, Environment, and Tourism. The Government has also concluded that certain parts of the license do indeed fall under areas where mining is now prohibited under the law protecting selected territories. Minister of Nature, Environment, and Tourism L.Gansukh has said they have begun work on revoking the company‘s license in such areas. Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs Ts.Nyamdorj has said the company was legally obliged to stop their work after receiving prohibitory notices from the State Special Inspection Agency, but he also blamed the local communities for the violence and warned them against a repetition. ―As long as a company holds a proper license, it does not matter whether it is Mongolian or Chinese. We shall not allow hoodlums to resolve legal issues and shall not be intimidated by threats,‖ he said. Appealing for calm to prevail, he assured the aggrieved communities that the Government will act according to the law and see nobody suffers without reason. Source: Onoodor PRIME MINISTER URGES PEOPLE TO COME UP WITH IDEAS Prime Minister S.Batbold was in the western provinces last week as part of his extended tour of the countryside on a fact-finding mission. He held meetings with citizens at province capitals and at
  • 17. several district centers to explain the Government‘s policies, programs and achievements as also to listen to people‘s grievances and demands, most of which related to special allowances for remote regions, rise in tuition fees at universities and institutes, lack of insurance cover for traders and herdsmen, low salaries of doctors and medical workers, improving infrastructure, and generating employment. Everywhere he spoke, Mr. Batbold asked people to discuss problems among themselves and come up with suggestions on how their condition could be improved. He promised careful consideration of all such good ideas received from the grassroots. He also urged households to make their own preparations for the winter, and not to depend totally on the provincial authorities. Referring to the potential development of local mineral resources like brown coal, chromium, iron ore, gold and oil and of manufacturing industries based on these, he told citizens of Gobi-Altai that until such time that these plans materialized, they should cooperate with the province authorities in expanding infrastructure, tourism, the small- and medium-size sector, and health, education and industrial services. Source: Montsame ELBEGDORJ INVITED TO JOIN WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM‟S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE President Ts.Elbegdorj has received an invitation from Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, to become a member of the Forum‘s Global Agenda Council on Climate Change,‖given your thought and leadership in this field‖. Source: The President‘s Office TOURISM BOSS WANTS GUIDES TO BE MORE WELL-INFORMED Mr. N.Molor, Director of the National Tourism Center, has expressed his unhappiness that proper tourism has failed to pick up in Mongolia. Tourists from other societies can develop respect for local culture and traditions only if these are competently and carefully explained to them. Mr. Molor feels most tourist guides are ignorant of such aspects, with the result that the increase in the number of tourists has only meant a rise in environmental pollution and exploitation of natural resources like water. Local communities reap little benefit from tourism in their area, and are thus unable to work for regional development with the revenue that properly planned tourism should generate. Mr. Molor would prefer more involvement of local citizens in handling tourists, instead of leaving the entire work to tour guides who parrot information acquired from books and the Internet, and are without any personal knowledge of or commitment to local customs, culture, and lifestyle. The problem, he admitted, was that local guides mostly do not know any foreign language. He urged local administrations to work together with tourist companies in Ulaanbaatar to organize tourist itineraries that stressed local variations and to offer explanations researched by academics. The Japanese development organization JICA began implementing some eco-tourism projects in Mongolia about three years ago. These had great potential but have not been successful, according to Mr. Molor, even though the term is widely used by tour operators. Source: Zuunii Medee PM ORDERS USD250,000 FOR TAISHIR WATER POWER PLANT Following a visit to the Taishir water power plant on August 8 Prime Minister S.Batbold instructed the Ministry for Finance and the Ministry for Minerals and Energy to release US250,000 so that full generation there may begin in September. The plant is expected to provide power to meet all the needs of Gobi-Altai and Zavkhan provinces, but does not work to capacity, and has been supplying power to only Taishir and Jargalan districts since August, 2008. Generation cannot increase as the water level in the Zavkhan River is not high. The project was begun in 1997 with Kuwaiti assistance. So far, over MNT90 billion has been spent on it. Source: English.News.mn STRONG CANADIAN PARTICIPATION IN FARM SHOW CO-SPONSORED BY EMBASSY The Embassy of Canada is the co-sponsor this year, for the first time, of Mongolia‘s national farm show, ATAR III 2010, being held on August 13-15 in Selenge, the major agricultural province of the country. The other sponsors are the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, the Governor‘s Office of Selenge and Tuv provinces, and the Gatsuurt Company. It is the first dryland farm technology and equipment show in Mongolia, with 15 Canadian and 200 Mongolian agri-businesses companies participating. The aim of the show is to deepen Canada-Mongolia cooperation in the agricultural sector; introduce
  • 18. and promote Canadian advanced agricultural machinery, products and technology; boost agricultural trade between the two countries; and to establish contacts between representatives of the Canadian and Mongolian private sectors. Among the Canadian exhibitors are Morris Industries, which manufactures air seeding, tillage and hay handling systems; Westeel, which makes steel storage products for farm and commercial use, and also offers custom storage solutions to the needs of petroleum and industrial sectors; Schulte Industries, producer of rotary cutters, rock and snow removers; Skyway Grain Systems, specialists in custom grain handling systems and grain storage structures, and OC Flock Management, whose expertise is in reproductive technologies in sheep and goats. Source: The Canadian Embassy PROSECUTION AGENCY TURNS 80 The National Prosecution Agency last week observed the 80th anniversary of its establishment as a legal government authority affiliated to the Ministry of Justice. For all this period, prosecutors have served the State and the people by monitoring the work of filing cases, conducting investigation, and representing the government in court cases. Prosecutors marked the anniversary by paying tribute to the statue of Chinggis Khaan and laying wreaths at the statue of Sukhbaatar. Later, there were a concert and a wrestling event at the Cultural Center. Source: Zuunii Medee MAYOR PLANS UNTREATED WATER FOR TOILETS, BETTER STREET LIGHTS Ulaanbaatar Mayor G.Munkbayar has begun discussions with engineers on the economic and technical aspects of using untreated and/or recycled water in apartment toilets. The budget has allocated MNT1 billion for the program that will save money and also conserve fresh water. Mr. Munkhbayar also plans to announce an international open tender soon to install on the main streets illumination that meets global standards. Source: Montsame NEW BUILDINGS FOR BOTH MAJOR PARTIES Both major political parties are going to have new buildings. The MPRP building is at the same site where the old one was irreparably damaged in the July 1 violence in 2008, while the DP is constructing a new building in place of the old one which has been sold. The MPRP expects its Independence Palace to be ready by next March. The old building which was burnt was demolished and new construction began in the second season of 2009. The party considered 18 plans from 11 architecture firms and chose the one from Baldan Company. Undur Buyant Holding Company was selected as the builder. The party had restricted the tender to companies that supported the MPRP. The new building will have 12 stories, including two in the basement and a technical floor. It will be 39.2 meters tall, 56.8 meters long and 43.3 meters wide. It will have office rooms, a meeting hall to seat 800 people, an auditorium for 300 people, a museum gallery with 1,000 sq. meters of floor space, a dining hall with 400 seats, a library, a supermarket as well as a garage for 96 cars. It will cost MNT14.6 billion. The DP will call its building Democracy Palace. The foundation stone was laid on December 6, 2009 and the construction work is being executed by Balban‘s Company. The palace will have two blocks, with 27.780 sq. meters of total floor space. The public block will be five stories high while the office tower will have 20 floors rising 120 meters. There will be a Democratic History hall, a museum, a lecture hall with 200 seats, an Internet training and research center, a business information center, a meeting hall with 520 seats, and rooms for translators, observers and journalists. A three-meter tall monument ―My freedom and my inspiration‖ will be placed in the center of the building. Sculptor L.Gankhuyag hopes to finish the work by 2012. Source: English.News.mn U.S. AMBASSADOR ATTENDS CEREMONY AT AMARBAYASGALANT MONASTERY U.S. Ambassador Jonathan Addleton and some Embassy staff participated in a recent celebration marking the 20th anniversary of the reopening of Amarbayasgalant Monastery. The monastery complex is nearly 300 years old, but communist purges starting in 1937 forced its closure as tens of thousands of monks were arrested, executed, or forced into hiding. In 1989 the beginning of the democratic movement opened the door for the re-emergence of Buddhism and the reopening of the monasteries. The Embassy has a long relationship with the monastery which, as one of the few remaining historical structures in Mongolia, holds a special place as one of its most important cultural heritage
  • 19. sites. At the opening ceremony, the monks dedicated a brand new ―wish granting‖ stupa on the hillside, performed chants, and recognized the monastery‘s supporters. The head monk thanked the U.S. Government for its support – including this year‘s USD75,000 cultural preservation grant to provide fire and theft protection for the all-wooden complex, and a new roof for the main temple building. This grant is part of the U.S. State Department‘s Ambassador‘s Fund for Cultural Preservation which has supported hundreds of cultural heritage sites around the world. Source: The U.S. Embassy in Mongolia NORTH KOREA OFFERS GINSENG TO PAY PART OF CZECH DEBT Pyongyang‘s cash-strapped totalitarian regime has offered to settle part of its debt to the Czech Republic with a large consignment of ginseng rather than eat into its limited funds. With the domestic economy crumbling, North Korea is also feeling the pinch of tighter international sanctions imposed over its nuclear and missile programs and the sinking of a South Korean warship. Its access to global markets is further hindered by outstanding international debts of about ISD12 billion, two-thirds to former communist states. Czech officials confirmed that Pyongyang had offered to settle 5 percent of its USD 10 million in accumulated debt in ginseng, an invigorating root used in dietary supplements and teas that are supposed to improve memory, stamina and libido. Communist Czechoslovakia was a leading supplier of heavy machinery, trucks and trams to North Korea. Non-cash trade and settlement of debt has been common among socialist countries. Cuba compensates Venezuela for discounted oil by sending doctors to work in deprived areas. However, the now-capitalist Czechs are unconvinced they need an injection of vigor. ―We have been trying to convince them to send, for instance, a shipment of zinc, which is mined there. We would sell it ourselves,‖ Mr. Tomas Zidek, the Czech Republic‘s deputy finance minister, has said. A newspaper calculates that 5 percent of the North Korean debt would amount to 20 tons of the curly white root. Retail prices of North Korean ginseng in Taiwan suggest a figure closer to 12 tons. Both sums massively outstrip the Czech Republic‘s annual consumption of about 1.4 tons year. International security services last year seized large illegal consignments of smuggled arms, which are a key source of hard cash revenue for Pyongyang, probably worth hundreds of millions of dollars. North Korea‘s military runs the export companies that ship specialty foodstuffs, such as shellfish, ginseng and mushrooms, to gain hard currency. Intelligence agencies say the ginseng trade is controlled by Pyongyang‘s shadowy ―Bureau 39‖, which runs the country‘s foreign funds. Source: The Financial Times U.S. VENTURES INTO TROUBLED ASIAN WATERS When Mrs. Hillary Clinton said in July that the resolution of territorial disputes in the South China Sea was in the U.S. national interest, she threatened to upset a delicate diplomatic balance that has been maintained for a decade. That restraint has held in check a potentially explosive cocktail composed of China‘s pursuit of energy security, its neighbors‘ fears about its growing power and U.S. concerns about Beijing‘s military expansion in an oil and gas-rich area. The sea is also home to vital shipping lanes. The U.S. Secretary of State drew attention to Washington‘s anxiety about the region when she added her voice to calls for a multilateral approach to resolving territorial disputes in the South China Sea during an Asian security forum, calling the issue a ―leading diplomatic priority‖. China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Indonesia lay claims to all or part of the body of water that extends from China‘s Hainan Island to the northern coast of Borneo. The areas with the most overlapping claims are mainly near the Spratly and Paracel island groups. In 2002, China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) signed a declaration of conduct, under which all parties pledged to exercise restraint in the disputed waters. But Asean members feel that the accord has become meaningless, and observers speak of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, while disputes between fishing vessels and naval forces are on the rise. What has for many years been a dispute between neighbors is also gaining a global dimension. The view in Washington is that Mrs. Clinton‘s comments reflect U.S. concerns that, left unchecked, China‘s military drive could transform the region‘s political landscape. ―China is shifting its military focus from a land-centric focus to an air and maritime-focused capability,‖ Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said in India recently. ―The Pacific region is a critical economic region; a critical trade region … [and so] I‘ve gone from being curious about where
  • 20. China‘s headed to being concerned about it.‖ Read more… A new submarine base on Hainan is expected to result in China‘s navy becoming more active in regional waters. This could restrict the U.S. Navy‘s freedom of movement in the area. Beijing also recently called the South China Sea a ―core interest‖ – a status it had in the past only assigned to Taiwan and Tibet, although Beijing made its reference ―in the context of specific U.S. activities that China opposed, not the dispute more generally‖, said Mr. Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese security issues at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ―The Chinese may see parts of the South China Sea as the potential redoubt for their future ballistic missile-carrying submarines,‖ said Mr. Tim Huxley of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. ―China‘s greater interest in the South China Sea [is] not just about natural resources. There are hard strategic issues as well.‖ When Beijing issued its first official reaction to Mrs. Clinton‘s comments, it made a point of condemning the ―internationalization‖ of the dispute and also disclosed that it had conducted a naval exercise in the area the previous week. South-east Asian governments have also expressed concern. Indonesia is leading efforts to try to forge a regional consensus. In a recent letter to the UN, Jakarta said China‘s attempt to use isolated islets to establish its legal claim to sovereignty ―clearly lacks international legal basis‖, and to allow it would undermine the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – the framework for establishing sovereignty. ―[China‘s military expansion] is a fact,‖ said a spokesman for Indonesia‘s foreign ministry. China‘s growth was increasing suspicion in the region, he said. Vietnam, and to a lesser extent Malaysia, have also begun to push back against what some see as Chinese bullying, says Mr. Huxley. From China‘s perspective, things look different. Mr. Li Jinming, a South China Sea expert at Xiamen University, says China is concerned about Vietnam pushing ahead with oil exploration in disputed areas. A UN deadline early last year for coastal states to file claims for stretches of seabed linked to their continental shelf made things worse. Claims filed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia triggered an intervention from China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea. A Philippine foreign ministry official said Asean members wanted a meeting of senior officials from the regional group and China to discuss the drafting of a binding code of conduct. ―But China is non-committal at this time,‖ he added. Beijing believes that time is on its side. Mr. Song Xiaojun, a Beijing-based military analyst, says Asean countries are betting on the rivalry between China and the U.S., with ―a foot on one boat each‖. But he thinks China‘s continued economic rise will change the odds eventually. Source: The Financial Times NEW MONGOLIAN REGULATIONS The following new laws, amendments and annulment were published in the latest weekly Government bulletin. Unless otherwise decided by Parliament, they will take effect ten (10) days after publication. Date Laws 04.08.2010 1. Law on Prohibition of Newly Approval for Special Licence of Quest for Minerals 2. Law on Air Atmosphere 3. Annulment of Law on Air Atmosphere 4. Amendments to Law on Environmental Protection 5. Amendments to Law on Road Traffic Safety 6. Amendments to Law on Special Fund of Government 7. Amendments to Law on Excise Tax 8. Law on Payment for Air Pollution 9. Amendments to Law on General Tax 10. Amendments to Law on State Consolidated Budget of Mongolia Please visit BCM's website, Legislative Working Group, for a summary of new Mongolian laws. BCM members who wish to access complete versions of the laws and regulations in Mongolian language are welcome to call or email the BCM office: 332345 or info@bcmongolia.org.
  • 21. ANNOUNCEMENTS MONGOLIA INVESTMENT CONFERENCE ON SEPTEMBER 7 The 1st Mongolia Investment Conference on September 7 at Chinggis Khaan Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, will showcase a range of Mongolian-based opportunities in the resource and financial sectors and beyond. With participants drawn from the highest levels of the Mongolian government, the conference offers investors the chance to meet key decision-makers in Mongolia and to receive insight into the key market drivers, risks and influences that shape the Mongolian market. Seats are limited and the sponsor, Eurasia Capital, reserves the right to grant access only to qualified delegates. For more information please contact Ms. Zhyldyz Sadyralieva - +976 99061673 or zhyldyz.sadyralieva@eurasiac.com. _______________________________________ “BSPOT" on B-TV BTV (Business TV) now telecasts a 10-minute English-language news program called BSPOT every evening from Monday to Friday at 21:30, taking most of the stories from the BCM NewsWire. ________________________________________ “MM TODAY” on MNB-TV BCM is pleased to announce that Mongolian National Broadcasting continues its cooperation with BCM on ―MM Today‖. This English news program is aired every Friday for 10 minutes and is scheduled for 21:15 tonight. Tune in to watch this program that reports stories from today‘s BCM NewsWire. _______________________________________ NEW POSTINGS ON BCM WEBSITE‟S „MONGOLIAN BUSINESS NEWS‟ The draft Tavan Tolgoi Investment Agreement which was submitted by the Government to Parliament is posted in both languages to BCM‘s websites, (www.bcmongolia.org) and (www.bcm.mn), ‗Mongolian Business News‘ for your review. We are now posting some news stories and analyses relevant to Mongolia on the BCM website's ‗Mongolian Business News‘ as they come, instead of waiting until Friday to put them all together in the weekly NewsWire. The NewsWire will, however, continue to be issued on Friday, and will incorporate items that are already on the home page, so that it presents a consolidated account of the week‘s events. SPONSORS
  • 23. INFLATION Year 2006 6.0% [source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSOM)] Year 2007 *15.1% [source: NSOM] Year 2008 *22.1% [source: NSOM] Year 2009 *4.2% [source: NSOM] July 31, 2010 *9.8% [source: NSOM] *Year-over-year (y-o-y) CENTRAL BANK POLICY LOAN RATE December 31, 2008 9.75% [source: IMF] March 11, 2009 14.00% [source: IMF] May 12, 2009 12.75% [source: IMF] June 12, 2009 11.50% [source: IMF] September 30, 2009 10.00% [source: IMF] May 12, 2010 11.00% [source: IMF] CURRENCY RATES – August 12, 2010 Currency name Currency Rate US dollars USD 1,333.59 Euro EUR 1,742.20 Japanese yen JPY 15.67 British pound GBP 2,107.47 Hong Kong dollar HKD 171.73 Chinese yuan CNY 196.87 Russian ruble RUB 44.15 South Korean won KRW 1.13 Disclaimer: Except for reporting on BCM‘s activities, all information in the BCM NewsWire is selected from various news sources. Opinions are those of the respective news sources.