Workforce forecasting & planning Introduction for recruiters - Workshop summary

Recruitment Workshop
Strategic
Workforce Forecasting & Planning
(in a VUCA world)
Workshop summary
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Alexander Crépin
recruitment strategist, coach & trainer
freelance, interim recruiting & management

SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model
4 phases
Attract AppointAssessStrategize
Talent
Acquisition
Employer
Branding
Forecasting
Planning
Hiring
On-
boarding
Selecting
Engaging
Talent
Pooling

A. WFP What ?
Workforce alignment tool
• Forecasting = identifying needs
(what)
• Planning = addressing needs
(how)
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters

What else ?
Process get workforce as ready as possible
to meet upcoming business challenges
• right size
• with the right profiles (diversity) & skills
• doing right things at the right time
• organised & structured in the right way
• within the budget you can afford

WFP Forecasting
• Exploring & analysing future business
development based on company’s strategy & mission
• Identifying matters impacting future of WF
• Identifying future WF requirements
quantity & quality of staff needed to deliver business
objectives and fulfil the business ambitions
• NB. Even best forecasts only a moderate effort. Accuracy can fall rapidly

Workforce Forecast
=
Input for Workforce Planning

What ? Workforce Planning
Addressing forecasted WF requirements by
‒ developing strategies, solutions & plans for
agile, as future ready as possible workforce
‒ defining SMART HR objectives & budgets
‒ defining pathway for implementation

WFP Forecasting Recruiting view
Using Recruitment data, information, insights etc.
Input for better, more accurate forecasts (& plans)
• Metrics
• Staffing ratio’s
• Labour Market Intelligence
• EoC position
• Talent pool & pipelines
• Hiring scenario’s
• Budgeting

WFP Planning Recruiting view
What, how, when & where to do, at what
cost ensuring:
• in the (near) future
• successful external hiring
• of required quantity & quality of talent
• at a reasonable (competitive) cost-per-hire

What ? WFP result
• Bigger picture context for HR strategy
development, refinement & execution
• Strategic Framework, longer-term context for
critical workforce decisions
• (HR) Decision filter for new business initiatives
• Pathway to shape workforce quantitatively &
qualitatively as ready as possible for future

B. Why WFP ?
Enable business strategy execution by
• timely, cost-effective & efficient
• supply of
• qualified talent

Why WFP ? Anticipate & Prevent
Anticipate better to Prevent having a
• Surplus of employees (to many)
• Shortfall in talent supply (not enough)
a gap in the (critical/strategic) employee pool
• Quality surplus and/or shortfall
mismatch skill type &/or level of employees & demand
Too many & Too few = Problem Not meeting productivity, performance, profitability & org. goals

Why WFP ? Recruiting view
• Long term framework for recruitment strategy & goals
• Direction for short term recruiting priorities
• More competitive in War-for-Talent
• Target key talent groups more precisely
• Optimize shape, structure & size of recruiting team
• Recruit & refer more pro-actively
• Realistic hiring expectations

C. When WFP ?
In today’s dynamic world:
Ongoing, continuous process
Regular review, update & adjust plans
– external & internal dynamics
– changing economic & business directions
– new insights, more/better data & analytics

When ? Example Full WFP cycle:
• Every 3 years (depending on VUCA context)
strategic, tactical & operational planning + milestones to review outcomes
• Annually reviewed & adjusted
• Quarterly checked & updated
• Real-time monitored (on dashboard) &
taken notice of in operational execution

When ? Agile WFP
Advanced WFP (usually takes time to get at this point!!)
• Rolling forecasts
• Agile planning
• Data Driven, real time monitoring
• Modelling & simulating (on demand)
• Update & adjust when data indicate it

When WFP ? Recruiting view
Data Driven Recruitment
• Real time dashboard & insights
• Continuously monitoring & reviewing
• Responsive to changes & trends, adjusting
plans / planning for hiring new talent

D. WFP Who ?
WFP stakeholders at all levels, in all
functions & locations
WFP cooperative & collaborative effort of
• Board, senior leadership
• HR (program & process management)
• Business leadership
• Key professionals

Who ? WFP Competencies
• Highly numerical and analytical
• Understanding of analytical methods & models
• Vision & Helicopter view
• Business acumen
• Planning & organising
• Pragmatic, result driven
• Adaptability
• Organisational & cultural sensitivity
• Collaborative, team oriented
• Communication verbally & in writing
• Listening, advising & influencing

Who ? Recruitment disciplines
• Sourcing Analyst(s)
• Employer Branding Specialist(s)
• Recruiter(s)
• Recruitment Agency Partners
• Labour Market Intelligence service providers
• Various public labour market data agencies

E. How WFP ?
No single best way for WFP
• Many organisations have WFP model
• Most are quite similar
• Don’t start recreating the wheel, but ……..
• No one-size-fits-all approach

How ? a Simple Start
• Step-by-step
• Engage, get cross-functional involvement
• Pilot to learn, develop proof of concept
• Identifying added valueaddifferentlevels (see why)
• Make final business case for integrally using
WFP
• Make plan for next step(s) in WFP

How ? WFP Enablers
• Culture open for Data Driven Decision making
• Culture: collaborative & cross-functionally integrated
• Strategic direction & business strategy in place
• Building on existing programs/initiatives already
addressing scope of WFP process?
• Using existing resources, strategic papers, data &
expertise within & around the organisation
• WFP (HR+ Business) Data Eco System available
• Common (HR) language for skills, competencies etc.

WFP Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff

Step 1: Gather Data
WFP is a Data Driven Process
• Without accurate & reliable data, WFP doesn’t
make real sense
• Integrated data set = Key (competitive)
differentiator
• Real time monitoring options

WFP Data eco-system
WFP data eco-system development
• establishing corporate wide common (HR) data set
• consolidate disparate data sources, connecting local
& functional HR, Finance, Marketing etc. systems
• developing or revamping HRIS / Recruiting Systems
• requesting & gathering reliable, up-to-date data
• analysing & understanding data relationships
• deciding what, how & when to monitor & report

WFP Data (recruiting view)
Data Driven Hiring key success factor
Internet is the Talent Pool
• Labour market data
• Identification & monitoring of data about sources
• Target group data specifics
• Developing Data Driven Recruitment Personas
• Analysing Recruitment metrics & KPI’s for insight

Step 2: Analytics
Synthesising different sources of data to
• analyse & monitor current situation
• analyse & create a pro-active, data-driven
insight on the (near) future workforce needs
&
• Developing supporting analytical model(s)
• Automating data analytics
• Developing collaborative, data driven process

How ? WFP Enablers
• Analyse current & future talent strategy to stay
informed & agile
• Using analytics to become a true business partner
• Account for numerous variables in workforce plan
• Understand strategy-led planning versus data-led
planning
• Use analytics for informed decision making
• Use predictive analytics to plan for multiple futures

WFP
Future
Present
Past
Current WF supply
Future WF supply
Forecast WF demand
• Facts
• Patterns
• Parameters
• Demographics
• HR Policies
• HR Programs
Exploring
• Trends
• Scenarios
• Assumptions
Analysing & projecting
• Analytics

WFP = Continuous, up-to-date insight
Workforce Intelligence (culture)
• understanding workforce dynamics
• real time insight
• rolling forecast
Moving from transactional, short term driven operations, to data driven, pro-
active, more strategic execution of HR & Business strategy

Step 3: Assess implications
Assess current, future & forecasted
workforce profiles
Comparing quantitatively (jobs / roles FTE’s)
and/or qualitatively (levels, competencies, skills)
Diagnose outcomes

Assess implications
Main questions to be answered:
• what WF needed (demand) ?
• what & who is available (supply) ?
• what challenges making WF supply ready to
meet future WF demand ?

Assess implications
• Identify changes, gaps, risks, challenges &
opportunities
• Identify critical workforce issues, key (risk)
areas of need/action for stakeholders
• Prioritise ‘issues’ to be addressed
• Get shared mindset about priorities

Assessment forecasted roles
Identifying changes in roles:
• Roles remaining almost unchanged
• Enhanced roles requiring training of current
staff in additional new skills
• New roles requiring quality, type & level of
staff not (yet) present (in required numbers)
• New roles not requiring qualified staff
• Obsolete or declining current roles

WFP
Current supply
Future supply Forecast demand
Assess Gaps / Surpluses
Anticipate in WF Plan
Tactics begin!WFP implementation
(Talent) Market
development
exploration & scans

Step 4: Anticipation
Anticipation of Gap implications
• How to close gap between current & future?
• How to deal with surpluses & shortfalls?
• Develop solutions for short & (near) future
• HR strategy development & adjustment
• Review Business direction & pace adjustment
Action plan to close the Gap

WFP Gap closing HR options
• Recruit right quantity & quality new talent
• Re-deploy employees
• Retain key people
• Develop & train, employability & capacity
• Define workforce employment categories
• Engage a network of quality flex-workers
• Reduce & outplace “redundant” employees
• Develop out- & insourcing partnerships
• Organisation (re) design, talent allocation

Gap Closing Matrix example
WFP GAP Analysis
Shows:
Recruiting
Hiring
Selection
Perf.
Mngmnt.
Training &
Dvlpmnt.
Retention
Replace
&
Succession
Competencies not
matching demand
Recruit
the right
Select
right
Core
Comp.
Clear?
Trainable
?
Train?
Not
Matching
No future
High Turnover
Realistic
promises
Selecting
right
Is Perf.
Feedback
OK?
Key employees
retiring soon
How hire
key
players?
How
select key
players?
Etc.
Performance not
competitive
Hiring
Quality
Selecting
Quality
New ways of
working coming
Align
recruiting
Align
Selection
Methods

Step 5: Action enablers
• Stakeholder buy-in, sharing & communication
• Implementation skills & competencies
• Ensuring budget
• Setting priorities
• Providing time frame – time horizon
• Defining milestones & KPI´s
• Ensuring role clarity & responsibilities
• Real time monitoring & reporting options
• Where planning ends, tactics begin!

Step 6: Audit Implementation
• Assessing accuracy forecasts & plans
• Monitoring impact plans, milestones & KPI´s
• Monitoring implementation remains on track
• Checking commitment& confidence for plans
• Analysing & discussing findings
• Reporting & presenting

Step 7: Adapt & Adjust
WFP exists in the real world
The ideal world doesn’t exist
Dealing with today’s dynamic realities of
change!
WFP Action Plan = Living “Document”
Evolving Roadmap

WFP in a VUCA world
Today’s business environment =
• Volatile = increasing pace or rate of change
• Uncertain = lack of predictability of future
• Complex = many interconnected parts /variables
• Ambiguous = lack of clarity meaning of trends & events
Volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous are closely interconnected items,
and should be seen in close relation to each other

WFP VUCA dilemmas
• Can you plan anything in a VUCA world?
• Does WFP make sense when pretty unlikely that
the future will appear in projected manner?
• What practical value do forecasts have?
• How much time & effort in view of uncertainties?
• Which time horizons realistic & still add value?
• Balancing short-term shocks & long-term needs

WFP & Winning in VUCA world
WFP not easy in VUCA world but
increasingly seen as a
key to success

WFP & Winning in VUCA world
WFP success factor in VUCA world:
• in-depth knowledge of current workforce
capability
• smart workforce KPI set & eco-system to
monitor developments
• being as prepared as possible for a competitive
world

WFP in VUCA world & Agility
Building an Agile workforce
Impossible to predict the future …..
• so ensure having the right people
• demonstrating agility to deal with different
scenarios or situations (a crisis, a recovery, a building
situation, a green field, a ………. )
• ready for whatever comes in the future

WFP: Workforce Intelligence
• understanding workforce dynamics
• real time monitoring for progressive
insight
• rolling forecast = adjusting, fine tuning
on basis of latest insight
Moving from transactional, short term driven operations, to data driven, pro-
active, more strategic execution of HR & Business strategy

WFP: Keep it Simple
WFP Simplification by Segmentation
Covering Total Workforce complex & time consuming
Segmentation of workforce:
• Setting priorities, focus on important roles
• Identifying for future business critical jobs/roles
• Getting in-depth understanding of critical, key &
core roles across organisation

WFP: Workforce Segmentation
Break down workforce into roles / jobs
Key roles
Specialists
Do roles Core roles
Critical roles
Impact on business value
Difficultytoreplaceroles

WFP Segmentation challenge
From Recruitment point of view
• understanding unique dynamics, motivations
& needs of target segments
• dedicated/ targeted approaches in job branding,
employer branding, sourcing, talent pooling, assessment, onboarding
• recruitment personas development
• updating & developing EoC ambitions & EVP
• pro-active targeted sourcing
Reflecting in Recruiting strategies, policies & practice!!

Why WFP ?
To be Ready for future
• Know yourself
• Where you are going to
• What it needs to get there in time
Adapt & Adjust before having to change

WFP success
Start now
• make team & stakeholders capable & get buy-in
• to develop a workforce
• as ready as possible
• for achieving future business objectives!

See also
1-day workshop
Strategic
(in a VUCA world)
by
Alexander Crépin

Your questions ?

Thank You
Thank you

Interested in WFP for recruitment ?
Just contact me
I help you to succeed

Also on by Alexander

End!

Workforce forecasting & planning Introduction for recruiters - Workshop summary

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