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Est Overview Feb 2010 Ac V2

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  • 1. Energy Smart Technologies Insight Research Agenda and Examples February 2010 Energy Smart Technologies Team © Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010 [1v9.01]
  • 2. Energy Smart Technologies: Research Agenda Examples Digital Energy Energy Efficiency • Smart grid White Paper • High-temperature superconductors • Demand response markets • Key future developments • Value chain, roles and players • Industry map • Market structure, sizes and growth • Heat pumps • Home energy management • Key factors driving uptake / barriers • Stimulus fund flows • Country-specific analyses • Evidence on consumer engagement • Waste heat recovery • European smart metering Power Storage Advanced Transportation • Flywheel storage • Electric vehicles: • Technology, business models, investment • Key product launches 2010 trends, regulatory issues • Value chain analysis • US electricity markets & storage • Public markets opportunities • How storage fits into the market • Traction batteries: • Regulatory barriers and solutions to • Chinese manufacturers adoption • Lithium battery cathode materials • Other technologies, batteries, fuel cells • Fuel cell vehicles 2
  • 3. Digital Energy: Demand Response Study Plays a supporting role by enabling Suppliers of demand End users of demand participation and implementation of Middle-men response capacity response capacity demand response programs Service Technology Provider Provider Consumer Reseller Purchaser • Energy audits • Interval metering • Supplies capacity to • Primary goal is to buy and • Obtains demand • Measurement & • Concentrators reseller or purchaser sell demand response response from reseller verification • Web servers • Participates in • Function as aggregators or consumer • Reseller selection • Software platforms incentive or price- • Single point of contact for • Ensures grid stability • Program design • Communications based programs purchasers Cooper Power Baltimore Gas & Skipping Stone C&I customers EnerNOC Systems Electric Conservation Ziphany Residential ComVerge ERCOT Resource Solutions 3
  • 4. Digital Energy: Consumer Response to Dynamic Tariffs % Peak load reduction in pilot study 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Sydney Colorado Baltimore Washington Ontario New Jersey Missouri DC CPP with automation Critical peak pricing (CPP) Time of use (TOU) 4
  • 5. Digital Energy: 2009 ARRA Smart Grid Stimulus Smart Grid Demo Projects: Smart Grid Investment Grants ($bn) Power Storage Technologies Battery: Equipment Manufacturing 0.1 Lead Battery: carbon Sodium-ion 1% Customer Systems 0.1 3% Transmission Systems 0.3 Battery: Unknown 12% CAES Distribution Systems 0.5 32% AMI Total = $185m Flywheel 2.0 15% Integrated / Cross-cutting 5.2 Flow Battery: Li- batteries 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ion 17% 20% Stimulus award Private investment 5
  • 6. Power Storage: Technologies by power, energy and relative size 1000 Power Quality Fuel ZnBr Li - ion Cells NaS 100 NiCd Flywheels Pb-A Energy Density (Wh/kg) 10 Va-R CAES Ultracapacitors Energy 1 Management Pumped Hydro 0.1 Capacitor 0.0 1 10 100 1000 10000 PowerDensity (W/kg) Power Denisty (W/kg) 1 Notes: CAES = compressed air energy storage; ZnBr = Zinc Bromide flow battery; PbA = lead acid; VaR = Vanadium redox flow battery; Li – ion = lithium ion; NaS = sodium sulfur; NiCd – nickel cadmium. 6
  • 7. Power Storage: Worldwide Grid-Scale Power Storage Capacity MW, log scale 1000000 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1 Pumped CAES NaS Flow Flywheels PbA Ni-Cad Li-ion hydro batteries Planned / proposed Installed 7
  • 8. Energy Efficiency: Capabilities of High-Temperature Superconductors 8
  • 9. Energy Efficiency: High-Temperature Superconductors Value Chain 9
  • 10. Advanced Transportation: Chinese power battery companies by main chemistry No. companies 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1982 1984 1986 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Lithium Nickel Lead-Acid Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Companies are listed by start-date, but their top present-day power battery chemistry is used to determine their category, even if they were previously focused on another technology.
  • 11. Advanced Transportation: CO2 emissions of selected vehicles Toyota Corolla 0.30 Tesla Roadster 0.19 Toyota Prius 0.19 Chevy Volt - 40+ miles 0.18 Chevy Volt - overall 0.17 Chevy Volt - sub 40 miles 0.17 Nissan Leaf 0.15 CO2 Emissions (tonne/1000 miles) Note: Based on CO2 intensities of standard gasoline and of average US electricity generation. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • 12. Advanced Transportation: Penetration of EVs in the European car fleet 350 300 250 200 ICEV 150 100 BE 50 PHEV 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicle, BEV = Battery electric vehicle, PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle 12
  • 13. Advanced Transportation and Carbon Markets: Change in EU ETS BAU emissions resulting from EVs, 2030 3,200 64 3,180 3,160 3,153 -14 3,140 -13 3,120 3,116 3,100 3,080 3,060 3,040 3,020 3,000 Base case EV power Load Refinery Base with EV baseload smoothing reduction Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: High growth in electric vehicle numbers assumed 13
  • 14. Energy Smart Technologies Insight Bloomberg New Energy Finance +44 20 7092 8800 www.newenergyfinance.com www.newcarbonfinance.com sales@newenergyfinance.com Bloomberg New Energy Finance, London 2nd Floor, New Penderel House, 283-288 High Holborn London, WC1V 7HP Phone: +44 207 092 8800 © Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010