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Energy Smart Technologies Insight
Research Agenda and Examples
February 2010




Energy Smart Technologies Team



 © Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010

                                             [1v9.01]
Energy Smart Technologies: Research Agenda Examples
                   Digital Energy                                        Energy Efficiency

  •   Smart grid White Paper                             •   High-temperature superconductors
  •   Demand response markets                                  • Key future developments
         • Value chain, roles and players                      • Industry map
         • Market structure, sizes and growth            •   Heat pumps
  •   Home energy management                                   • Key factors driving uptake / barriers
  •   Stimulus fund flows                                      • Country-specific analyses
  •   Evidence on consumer engagement                    •   Waste heat recovery
  •   European smart metering

                   Power Storage                                    Advanced Transportation

  •   Flywheel storage                                   •   Electric vehicles:
         • Technology, business models, investment             • Key product launches 2010
           trends, regulatory issues                           • Value chain analysis
  •   US electricity markets & storage                         • Public markets opportunities
         • How storage fits into the market              •   Traction batteries:
         • Regulatory barriers and solutions to                • Chinese manufacturers
           adoption                                            • Lithium battery cathode materials
  •   Other technologies, batteries, fuel cells          •   Fuel cell vehicles



                                                     2
Digital Energy:
Demand Response Study
       Plays a supporting role by enabling
                                                   Suppliers of demand                                      End users of demand
       participation and implementation of                                          Middle-men
                                                    response capacity                                        response capacity
           demand response programs




        Service               Technology
        Provider               Provider                 Consumer                      Reseller                     Purchaser



 • Energy audits        •   Interval metering    • Supplies capacity to    • Primary goal is to buy and    • Obtains demand
 • Measurement &        •   Concentrators          reseller or purchaser     sell demand response            response from reseller
   verification         •   Web servers          • Participates in         • Function as aggregators         or consumer
 • Reseller selection   •   Software platforms     incentive or price-     • Single point of contact for   • Ensures grid stability
 • Program design       •   Communications         based programs            purchasers

                             Cooper Power                                                                    Baltimore Gas &
   Skipping Stone                                    C&I customers                  EnerNOC
                               Systems                                                                           Electric

   Conservation
                                Ziphany                Residential                  ComVerge                       ERCOT
 Resource Solutions




                                                                     3
Digital Energy:
Consumer Response to Dynamic Tariffs
  % Peak load reduction in pilot study
   45
   40
   35
   30
   25
   20
   15
   10
    5
    0
          Sydney    Colorado     Baltimore Washington Ontario      New Jersey Missouri
                                              DC
           CPP with automation      Critical peak pricing (CPP)   Time of use (TOU)




                                             4
Digital Energy:
2009 ARRA Smart Grid Stimulus
                                                                                   Smart Grid Demo Projects:
    Smart Grid Investment Grants ($bn)
                                                                                   Power Storage Technologies

                                                                                                    Battery:
 Equipment Manufacturing      0.1                                                                    Lead
                                                                                          Battery:
                                                                                                    carbon
                                                                                         Sodium-ion
                                                                                                      1%
        Customer Systems          0.1                                                       3%


     Transmission Systems          0.3                                                      Battery:
                                                                                           Unknown
                                                                                             12%                CAES
      Distribution Systems          0.5                                                                         32%


                      AMI
                                                                                             Total = $185m
                                                                                      Flywheel
                                               2.0                                      15%

 Integrated / Cross-cutting                                          5.2
                                                                                            Flow
                                                                                                        Battery: Li-
                                                                                          batteries
                              0         1     2      3   4       5         6                                ion
                                                                                            17%
                                                                                                          20%
              Stimulus award                Private investment




                                                                               5
Power Storage:
  Technologies by power, energy and relative size

                           1000                                                                                                 Power Quality
                                                    Fuel
                                                                   ZnBr                               Li - ion
                                                    Cells                          NaS
                                100                         NiCd                                                        Flywheels
                                                                 Pb-A
               Energy Density (Wh/kg)




                                        10                  Va-R
                                              CAES                                                                      Ultracapacitors
                                                                             Energy
                                         1                                 Management

                                                  Pumped Hydro
                                    0.1

                                                                                                                           Capacitor


                                        0.0   1                    10             100                            1000                  10000
                                                                           PowerDensity (W/kg)
                                                                          Power Denisty (W/kg)
                                          1
Notes: CAES = compressed air energy storage; ZnBr = Zinc Bromide flow battery; PbA = lead acid; VaR = Vanadium
redox flow battery; Li – ion = lithium ion; NaS = sodium sulfur; NiCd – nickel cadmium.
                                                                                        6
Power Storage:
Worldwide Grid-Scale Power Storage Capacity

      MW, log scale
    1000000

     100000

      10000

       1000

        100

         10

          1
              Pumped   CAES     NaS       Flow Flywheels PbA     Ni-Cad   Li-ion
               hydro                    batteries
                              Planned / proposed     Installed


                                         7
Energy Efficiency:
Capabilities of High-Temperature Superconductors




                           8
Energy Efficiency:
High-Temperature Superconductors Value Chain




                          9
Advanced Transportation:
Chinese power battery companies by main chemistry
  No. companies           60


                          50


                          40


                          30


                          20


                          10


                            0
                                1982    1984      1986     1991      1993     1995      1997     1999      2001      2003     2005         2007




                                                                      Lithium           Nickel          Lead-Acid

 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
 Companies are listed by start-date, but their top present-day power battery chemistry is used to determine their category, even if they
 were previously focused on another technology.
Advanced Transportation:
CO2 emissions of selected vehicles

                                              Toyota Corolla                                              0.30

                                             Tesla Roadster                                        0.19

                                                  Toyota Prius                                     0.19

                                Chevy Volt - 40+ miles                                            0.18

                                      Chevy Volt - overall                                       0.17

                           Chevy Volt - sub 40 miles                                             0.17

                                                   Nissan Leaf                                  0.15

                                                                            CO2 Emissions (tonne/1000 miles)



Note: Based on CO2 intensities of standard gasoline and of average US electricity generation.               Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Advanced Transportation:
Penetration of EVs in the European car fleet

                         350

                         300

                         250

                         200
                                                                                                                     ICEV
                         150

                         100
                                                                                                                     BE
                            50
                                                                                                                     PHEV
                              0
                               2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030




 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
 ICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicle, BEV = Battery electric vehicle, PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

                                                                                      12
Advanced Transportation and Carbon Markets:
Change in EU ETS BAU emissions resulting from EVs, 2030

                      3,200
                                                                64
                      3,180
                      3,160                                                                                 3,153
                                                                                     -14
                      3,140                                                                     -13
                      3,120             3,116

                      3,100
                      3,080
                      3,060
                      3,040
                      3,020
                      3,000
                                    Base case              EV power               Load       Refinery    Base with EV
                                                           baseload             smoothing    reduction


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: High growth in electric vehicle numbers assumed


                                                                                13
Energy Smart Technologies Insight

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

+44 20 7092 8800
www.newenergyfinance.com
www.newcarbonfinance.com
sales@newenergyfinance.com




Bloomberg New Energy Finance, London
2nd Floor, New Penderel House,
283-288 High Holborn
London, WC1V 7HP
Phone: +44 207 092 8800


© Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010

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Est Overview Feb 2010 Ac V2

  • 1. Energy Smart Technologies Insight Research Agenda and Examples February 2010 Energy Smart Technologies Team © Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010 [1v9.01]
  • 2. Energy Smart Technologies: Research Agenda Examples Digital Energy Energy Efficiency • Smart grid White Paper • High-temperature superconductors • Demand response markets • Key future developments • Value chain, roles and players • Industry map • Market structure, sizes and growth • Heat pumps • Home energy management • Key factors driving uptake / barriers • Stimulus fund flows • Country-specific analyses • Evidence on consumer engagement • Waste heat recovery • European smart metering Power Storage Advanced Transportation • Flywheel storage • Electric vehicles: • Technology, business models, investment • Key product launches 2010 trends, regulatory issues • Value chain analysis • US electricity markets & storage • Public markets opportunities • How storage fits into the market • Traction batteries: • Regulatory barriers and solutions to • Chinese manufacturers adoption • Lithium battery cathode materials • Other technologies, batteries, fuel cells • Fuel cell vehicles 2
  • 3. Digital Energy: Demand Response Study Plays a supporting role by enabling Suppliers of demand End users of demand participation and implementation of Middle-men response capacity response capacity demand response programs Service Technology Provider Provider Consumer Reseller Purchaser • Energy audits • Interval metering • Supplies capacity to • Primary goal is to buy and • Obtains demand • Measurement & • Concentrators reseller or purchaser sell demand response response from reseller verification • Web servers • Participates in • Function as aggregators or consumer • Reseller selection • Software platforms incentive or price- • Single point of contact for • Ensures grid stability • Program design • Communications based programs purchasers Cooper Power Baltimore Gas & Skipping Stone C&I customers EnerNOC Systems Electric Conservation Ziphany Residential ComVerge ERCOT Resource Solutions 3
  • 4. Digital Energy: Consumer Response to Dynamic Tariffs % Peak load reduction in pilot study 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Sydney Colorado Baltimore Washington Ontario New Jersey Missouri DC CPP with automation Critical peak pricing (CPP) Time of use (TOU) 4
  • 5. Digital Energy: 2009 ARRA Smart Grid Stimulus Smart Grid Demo Projects: Smart Grid Investment Grants ($bn) Power Storage Technologies Battery: Equipment Manufacturing 0.1 Lead Battery: carbon Sodium-ion 1% Customer Systems 0.1 3% Transmission Systems 0.3 Battery: Unknown 12% CAES Distribution Systems 0.5 32% AMI Total = $185m Flywheel 2.0 15% Integrated / Cross-cutting 5.2 Flow Battery: Li- batteries 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ion 17% 20% Stimulus award Private investment 5
  • 6. Power Storage: Technologies by power, energy and relative size 1000 Power Quality Fuel ZnBr Li - ion Cells NaS 100 NiCd Flywheels Pb-A Energy Density (Wh/kg) 10 Va-R CAES Ultracapacitors Energy 1 Management Pumped Hydro 0.1 Capacitor 0.0 1 10 100 1000 10000 PowerDensity (W/kg) Power Denisty (W/kg) 1 Notes: CAES = compressed air energy storage; ZnBr = Zinc Bromide flow battery; PbA = lead acid; VaR = Vanadium redox flow battery; Li – ion = lithium ion; NaS = sodium sulfur; NiCd – nickel cadmium. 6
  • 7. Power Storage: Worldwide Grid-Scale Power Storage Capacity MW, log scale 1000000 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1 Pumped CAES NaS Flow Flywheels PbA Ni-Cad Li-ion hydro batteries Planned / proposed Installed 7
  • 8. Energy Efficiency: Capabilities of High-Temperature Superconductors 8
  • 10. Advanced Transportation: Chinese power battery companies by main chemistry No. companies 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1982 1984 1986 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Lithium Nickel Lead-Acid Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Companies are listed by start-date, but their top present-day power battery chemistry is used to determine their category, even if they were previously focused on another technology.
  • 11. Advanced Transportation: CO2 emissions of selected vehicles Toyota Corolla 0.30 Tesla Roadster 0.19 Toyota Prius 0.19 Chevy Volt - 40+ miles 0.18 Chevy Volt - overall 0.17 Chevy Volt - sub 40 miles 0.17 Nissan Leaf 0.15 CO2 Emissions (tonne/1000 miles) Note: Based on CO2 intensities of standard gasoline and of average US electricity generation. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • 12. Advanced Transportation: Penetration of EVs in the European car fleet 350 300 250 200 ICEV 150 100 BE 50 PHEV 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicle, BEV = Battery electric vehicle, PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle 12
  • 13. Advanced Transportation and Carbon Markets: Change in EU ETS BAU emissions resulting from EVs, 2030 3,200 64 3,180 3,160 3,153 -14 3,140 -13 3,120 3,116 3,100 3,080 3,060 3,040 3,020 3,000 Base case EV power Load Refinery Base with EV baseload smoothing reduction Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: High growth in electric vehicle numbers assumed 13
  • 14. Energy Smart Technologies Insight Bloomberg New Energy Finance +44 20 7092 8800 www.newenergyfinance.com www.newcarbonfinance.com sales@newenergyfinance.com Bloomberg New Energy Finance, London 2nd Floor, New Penderel House, 283-288 High Holborn London, WC1V 7HP Phone: +44 207 092 8800 © Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010