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Building Resilience in an Urban World
1. Rapid urbanization is driving increased disaster risk as more people and assets are located in harm's way. 2. The World Bank is addressing this issue through programs that incorporate disaster risk into development planning, financing risk reduction projects, and developing risk assessment tools. 3. Emerging issues include how to address complexity, communicate uncertainty, make decisions without reliable data, and incentivize mainstreaming disaster resilience.
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Building Resilience in an Urban World
- 1. Building Resilience inan Urban World Abhas K. Jha Program Leader, Disaster Risk Management East Asia Pacific The World Bank Santa Fe Institute Trustee and Business Network Symposium, November 2, 2012
- 2. I am goingto talk about 3 things today…. 1. The rising trend in disasters and what are the key drivers behind it. 2. How is the World Bank addressing this issue. 3. Some emerging future directions.
- 3. 3 Main Messages 1.The growth of people and assets in harm’s way, due to rapid urbanization will be, by far, the biggest driver of disaster risk over the next few decades. 2. The deep uncertainties from climate change implies the need for “robust” solutions-that work (“good enough”)across a wide range of scenarios. 3. The risks of disasters cannot be completely eliminated: a) Preparing for “graceful” failure b) Getting the balance right between structural and non-structural measures
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- 5. Rome Wasn’t Builtin Day.. China Does it in Two Weeks!
- 6. Where is thisurbanization happening?
- 7. Africa, Indian Sub-Continentand China 15% 25% 25%
- 8. Small and MediumTowns Growth in population by city scales. Source: based on Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision.
- 9. Increasing Trend ofDisasters Source: MunichRe
- 10. The Major Takeawayfrom the IPCC SREX “Long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change” -IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- 11. Source: Pielke andLandsea http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/lanina/figures.html#fig2
- 12. Source: Ranger andGarbett-Shiels, 2011
- 13. Cascading failures, fragilenetworks “Networks that are efficient are often not resilient, because resilient networks have inefficient redundancies. Resilience is a public good, created by the right kind of redundancy.” -Michael Spence
- 14. Complex, Cascading, Non-linear The major disaster area in : National population Tohoku share 4.5% (Iwate, Miyagi and National GDP share Fukushima) 4% Japanese mining and manufacturing production in March: -15.5% (the biggest drop in history) Japanese export in April: -12% Source: Prof. Masahisa Fujita
- 15. March 11, 2011: TheHeadline You Did Not Read Prevention pays but design systems that “fail gracefully”.
- 16. Risk Tolerance= F(Affordability) ALARP Principle ALARP Principle
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- 18. A Quick Wordon the World Bank
- 19. Macroeconomic Planning & Disaster Risk Financing Integration of Climate Rapid Disaster Impact Change projections Estimation PACIFIC RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM Professional and Urban Planning and Institutional Infrastructure Design Capacity Development Source SOPAC
- 20. Satellite Administrative Population Agricultural imagery Boundaries Census Census Topographic Surface Geology Surface soil Bathymetry maps Geodetic and Infrastructure References Fault Data Source: SOPAC
- 21. Creating Robust RiskInformation 145° E 150° E 155° E 0 100 200 400 Kilometers 5° S 5° S Lae Port Moresby 10° S 10° S Hazard Papua New Guinea AAL / Asset Value Exposure/Vulnerability 0% - 0.05% 0.05% - 0.1% 0.1% - 0.15% 0.15% - 0.2% 0.2% - 0.3% 0.3% - 0.4% 0.4% - 0.5% 0.5% - 1.15% 145° E 150° E 155° E Risk Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Risk Financing in association with SPC/SOPAC and the ADB
- 22. Risk Assessment Event Intensity Generation Calculation Damage Estimation Limit Loss Calculation Exposure Information Deductible Mitigation / Policy Policy Conditions Conditions Source: SOPAC
- 23. Country risk profiles AnIllustration with Solomon Islands
- 24. Acting collectively forcost-effective financial solutions against major disasters Adding more countries increases risk diversification benefits Adding more perils increases risk diversification benefits Note: Impact of risk diversification on 150yr loss
- 25. Geonodes: Sharing Informationfor Resilience
- 26. Participatory Mapping: OpenStreetMap DKIJakarta: 100% coverage Over 6000 structures digitized 2,658 RW mapped
- 27. InaSAFE Impact analysis PDF Click
- 28. Jakarta flood proneareas and hospitals lo
- 29. Exact location ofpotentially flooded hospitals
- 30. Building the OpenSource Community SAFE CodeSprint: Pavia Italy. November 12-16, 2012
- 31. Metro Manila andCan Tho: Getting the Balance Right Between ‘Structural and Non- structural Measures Keeping the water away from Keeping the people away the people from the water Hard engineered Increased preparedness • Awareness campaigns • Flood conveyance • Urban management • Flood storage Flood avoidance • Urban drainage systems • Land use planning • Ground water management • Resettlement • Flood resilient building design Emergency planning & management • Flood defenses • Early warning systems and evacuation Eco-system management • Critical infrastructure • Utilizing wetlands Speeding up recovery • Creating environmental buffers • Building back smarter • Risk insurance
- 32. Ho Chi MinhCity Developing an Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategy Urban growth in the periphery of the city had as a result newly-urbanized districts arising in sites at flood risk. Hard engineering or structural measures to minimize flood risk might be unsustainable under large hydrological, land subsidence and urbanization uncertainties. Components: • Protection to an appropriate return frequency, determined by predictions using historical data and non-stationary analysis • Adaptation to cope with extreme events that surpasses design criteria • Retreat, which means restoring space for water to adapt to long-term climate changes. Ho Long Phi Robust Decision Making (RDM) Helps Inform Good Decisions Without Reliable Predictions
- 33. Robust Decision Making(RDM) Helps Inform Good Decisions Without Reliable Predictions RDM follows “Deliberation with Analysis” decision support process Participatory Scoping 1.Define Goals, Uncertainties, and Strategies Key idea: 2.Choose Candidate Strategy • Start with strategy • Use analytics to identify Tradeoff Analysis Case Generation scenarios where strategy fail to 5.Display and Evaluate 3.Estimate Performance of meet its goals Tradeoffs Among Strategy in Many Futures Strateg(ies) • Use these scenarios to identify and evaluate responses Scenario Exploration and Discovery 4.Characterize Strategy’s Vulnerabilities Deliberation Analysis Robust Strategy Vulnerabilities Source: Rob Lempert, RAND Deliberation with Analysis
- 34. Factors Potentially Consideredin Our Analysis X: Exogenous uncertainties L: Policy levers • Extreme precipitation (X mm/3 hrs) • System described in 2001 JICA Master Plan • Mean sea level • Adaptation options include: • Subsidence rate • Elevating buildings • Infrastructure performance • Small scale pumps • Delays in implementing flood control plans • Public awareness • Rate and patterns of economic and • Retreat options include: population growth • Restrictions/appropriate land use • Effectiveness of policies • Adaptive decision strategies • Costs of implementing policies • Signposts • Responses R: Relationships M: Measures of merit • SWMM Model • RI: Risk exposure (population/housing) • ArcGIS for calculating RI and DI • DI: Damage exposure (economic) Source: Rob Lempert, RAND
- 35. Risk Layering: ABalance-Sheet Approach to Risk Finance • Catastrophe Bonds 100 Parametric insurance • • Traditional Insurance Probable Maximum 90 Loss 80 70 Transfer 60Contingent lines of credit • • Loans (Standard or Emergency) 50Budget reallocations • 40 Retention 30 • Reserves/Calamity funds 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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- 37. Emerging Directions 1. Recognizing,measuring and responding to complexity (CCN for networks?). 2. Cognitive limitations, Communicating uncertainty 3. Beyond cost-benefit (fat tails), evidence based DRM, Value-for-Money 4. The economics (and politics!) of open data for resilience. 5. Decision-making in data-scarce environments, Big data, Simulations, Serious Gaming
- 38. Ultimately it boilsdown to…. • INVESTMENTS: What concrete actions can we take to build resilience into our program? • INSTRUMENTS: What instruments do we need to support our clients to mainstream resilience ? (Data, metrics, analytical work etc.) • INCENTIVES: Institutionally why is this not happening, even for events that we know that are bound to take place? (Changing incentives)
- 39. EAP DRM KNOWLEDGEPRODUCTS
- 40. Thank you! Abhas K.Jha www.worldbank. org/eapdisasters @abhaskjha
Editor's Notes
- #9 We are experiencing the largest wave ofurbanization ever seen in history. In 2008, half of the world’s population lived in urban areas, with two-thirds of this in low-income and middle-income nations. This is estimated to rise to 60 percent in 2030, and 70 percent in 2050. Urbanization itself is not the problem, but the combination of rapid and unplanned urbanization, makes urban flooding more dangerous and more costly to manage in the short-medium term – because of the sheer size of the population exposed within urban settlements. The figure on the slide depicts the growth in population by city size. The red line represents the growth of cities with fewer than 500.000 people – steepest. Peri-urban, small and middle sized cities are expected to grow most – these are the cities that lack infrastructure, services and the capacities to prepare for their rapid growth. This puts their dwellers, especially the urban poor, socially disadvantaged, and informal settlers at risk. Climate changecan have a compounding effect on existing flood risk, for example, by augmenting sea level rise, changing rainfall patters, and an increase in storm surges. The science between the linkages between CC and extreme weather events is still not conclusive. Research by Roger Pielkeof Colorado, Kerry Emanuel of MIT and many others have shown that, if you normalize for asset and population growth, there is absolutely no climate change signal in damages from extreme weather events for the foreseeable future. PCC SREX Report "long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change" ttp://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf p.26. The IPCC SREX report reflected the scientific literature on the state of attribution with respect to extreme events --for events such as floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, bushfires and on other topics there remain enormous uncertainties. A new paper is forthcoming in the journal Climatic Change in 2012 helps to shed some additional light on such claims. The new paper -- titled "A Trend Analysis of Normalized Insured Damage from Natural Disasters" by Fabian Barthel and Eric Neumayer of the London School of Economics concludes based on its examination of weather-related losses from the Munich Re global dataset from 1980 to 2008 (emphasis added): [At a global scale] no significant trend is discernible. Similarly, we do not find a significant trend if we constrain our analysis to non-geophysical disasters in developed countries . This implies that people and asset growth in harm's way will be, by far, the biggest driver of deaths and damages from extreme weather events for the foreseeable future.Growing population and prosperity means that more people and wealth are exposed to risks and larger losses.
- #11 Climate changecan have a compounding effect on existing flood risk, for example, by augmenting sea level rise, changing rainfall patters, and an increase in storm surges. The science between the linkages between CC and extreme weather events is still not conclusive. Research by Roger Pielkeof Colorado, Kerry Emanuel of MIT and many others have shown that, if you normalize for asset and population growth, there is absolutely no climate change signal in damages from extreme weather events for the foreseeable future. PCC SREX Report "long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change" ttp://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf p.26. The IPCC SREX report reflected the scientific literature on the state of attribution with respect to extreme events --for events such as floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, bushfires and on other topics there remain enormous uncertainties. A new paper is forthcoming in the journal Climatic Change in 2012 helps to shed some additional light on such claims. The new paper -- titled "A Trend Analysis of Normalized Insured Damage from Natural Disasters" by Fabian Barthel and Eric Neumayer of the London School of Economics concludes based on its examination of weather-related losses from the Munich Re global dataset from 1980 to 2008 (emphasis added): [At a global scale] no significant trend is discernible. Similarly, we do not find a significant trend if we constrain our analysis to non-geophysical disasters in developed countries . This implies that people and asset growth in harm's way will be, by far, the biggest driver of deaths and damages from extreme weather events for the foreseeable future.Growing population and prosperity means that more people and wealth are exposed to risks and larger losses.
- #17 Forget about optimal design and anticipating all risksInstead focus on “robust” design, simple rules of thumbConsider the consequences of failure in designInvest in data, emergency preparedness and response.
- #20 Where to from here. In Phase 3 the focus is on Applications development ie demonstrating the use of the information. Strengthening of Pacific Risk Information SystemIntegration of climate change scienceExtend hazard models (e.g. local flood models)Extend and update risk exposureDevelopment of ApplicationsDisaster risk financing /macro-economic planningRapid disaster impact estimationIntegration of risk information in urban/infrastructure planningIntegration of community vulnerability/resource mapping
- #21 Major effort in assembling, processing and organizing one of the largest collection of geo-referenced datasets in the region
- #22 The key technical ingredients to understanding risk and building resilience are hazard, exposure with vulnerability. The images from the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Risk Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) display (1) 100 year mean return period seismic hazard, (2) detailed exposure for 45 unique classes of infrastructure including estimated replacement cost values paired in the analysis with detailed vulnerability functions, (3) Risk in terms of the average annual loss at the district level normalized by total replacement value.The PCRAFI is an extensive study has been conducted to analyze the risk from tropical cyclones, earthquakes, and tsunamis with quantitative impacts to population, economic losses to buildings, infrastructure, and crops. This included the generation of detailed exposure information to locate and characterize over 3.5 million buildings and infrastructure in 15 Pacific Island Countries(PICs). This information was gathered from a combination of sources including extensive survey (over 80,000 locations validated in the field), remote analysis from satellite imagery, review of available national/regional databases.
- #26 A customized GeoNode is being deployed in Fiji at SPC-SOPAC to serve the terabytes of data associated with the PCRAFIGeoNode is a open source, web-based data sharing platform– it is one of the tools that enables the principles of the Open Data for Resilience Initiative Information Communication Technology (ICT) experts at SPC-SOPAC fully engaged in development of the platform In the image a custom feature allows the detailed field survey data and photos to be displayed in the interacting web mapping interface.The vision at SOPAC-SPC: “Different projects, different data, different requirements, different access levels – One Platform, the GeoNode”There are over 30 planned or ongoing GeoNode based data sharing project across most of the Bank’s regions.
- #33 Some 60 percent of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is comprised of lowland areas subject to tidal effects. Examining flooding in HCMC is complicated as it isaffected by upstream, downstream and local impacts. Despite an increase in heavy rainfall events, an upgrade to the drainage system in the central districts of Ho Chi Minh City has reduced flood risk. Nevertheless,urban growth in the periphery of the city had as a result newly- urbanized districts arising in sites at flood risk.To protect the city from sea level rise, a dike and tide gate system is planned. The total cost for the construction of 12 large gates and 170 kilometers of dike couldreach US$ 2 billion. The Tide Control Project uses large polders but, although approved, it remains controversial as saline intrusion has been more serious than was initially expected. The construction of a sea dike is also being considered.Hard engineering or structural measures to minimize flood risk might be unsustainable under large hydrological, land subsidence and urbanization uncertainties. The Steering Center for Urban Flood Control in HCMC pointsout that an integrated flood management strategy (IFMS) is most likely to be successful in reducing flood risk. Components of an IFMS include:–– Protection to an appropriate return frequency, determined by predictions using historical data and non-stationary analysis–– Adaptation to cope with extreme events that surpasses design criteria–– Retreat, which means restoring space for water to adapt to long-term climate changes.The dynamic balance among the three components may vary, depending on location and timing. As the Steering Center for Urban Flood Control suggests, it should be decided via a robust Decision Support System (DSS). This case demonstrates that urban flood risk management cannot be associated solely with hard-engineered measures, but rather with an integrated and flexible approach in order to respond to future climate and socio-economic uncertainties.
- #40 Comprehensive framework of ex-ante and ex-post risk management measures to mainstream disaster risk management into their development plans and processes.The World Bank supports countries around the world in mainstreaming a holistic approach to disaster risk management into development.With its overarching mission to fight poverty, World Bank’s disaster risk management efforts aim to build resilient communities. Between fiscal years 2006 and 2012, IBRD and IDA committed an estimated $11.7 billion to projects related to disaster risk management (GFDRR, 2012). In East Asia and the Pacific, the World Bank supports a range of low- to upper-high-income countries in developing effective ex-ante and ex-post risk management measures. Paying close attention to countries singular context, the World Bank provides analytical and advisory services, helps to build climate and disaster resilience into core investments across sectors, and offers unique financial solutions to better manage the contingent fiscal risks from disasters. The estimated active DRM portfolio in the region is USD$ XX (tbc). World Bank disaster risk management activities are part of a comprehensive frameworkfocusing on a number of core areas: risk identification, risk reduction, emergency preparedness, financial protection, and sustainable recovery and reconstruction. Systematically addressing each core area, this Report takes stock of the current situation of EAP countries, identifies the key challenges, as well as outlines priorities for policy makers to reduce risks and build resilience in the short-, medium-, and long-run.