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  • 1. Web Meets World Tim O’Reilly O’Reilly Media, Inc. www.oreilly.com Web 2.0 Expo Berlin October 21, 2008
  • 2. Something here about end of Web 2.0 • web2.Over 2
  • 3. Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service 3
  • 4. Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service These are not short-term trends! 3
  • 5. Deep trends behind Web 2.0 • The internet as platform • Harnessing collective intelligence • Data as the “Intel Inside” • Software above the level of a single device • Software as a service These are not short-term trends! Do you think we’re done yet? 3
  • 6. Winners and Losers • Winners – Cloud computing – SAAS applications like Google Apps – Open Source software – Companies delivering valuable services to business or consumers – Breakthroughs in collective intelligence – Entrepreneurs who believe so much in what they are doing that they stick to it • Losers – Me-too startups fueled by easy money – Venture capitalists who invested in them 4
  • 7. 5
  • 8. 6 • Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
  • 9. Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble! • Financial crises • Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age • Oil price shock • Global warming • Decline in science literacy & education • Water scarcity • Exotic diseases • Aging populations and soaring health costs • Decline in US and European economic competitiveness and innovation 7 • Dysfunctional political system
  • 10. 8
  • 11. 9 • Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316
  • 12. It’s tough to predict the future 10
  • 13. 11
  • 14. 12
  • 15. Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90 Active Rigs (Yearly Averages) Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
  • 16. Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90 Active Rigs (Yearly Averages) Actual Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
  • 17. Scenario Planning Singularity Politics Visionary As Usual leadership Global Economic & Environmental Collapse 15
  • 18. Robust Strategies Singularity Politics Visionary As Usual leadership Global Economic & Environmental Collapse 16
  • 19. Robust Strategy #1 Work on stuff that matters! 17
  • 20. 18
  • 21. To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices No Climate Change Yes Climate Change Invest Money Invest Money Invent new technology Save 1B Lives We Act Reduce reliance on oil Invent new technology Reduce reliance on oil Life goes on Billions die We Do NOT Act Large wars Horrible famine and drought End of world as we know it Total economic collapse Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI February 2008 Kevin Surace 41
  • 22. To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices No Climate Change Yes Climate Change Invest Money Invest Money Invent new technology Save 1B Lives We Act Reduce reliance on oil Invent new technology Reduce reliance on oil Life goes on Billions die We Do NOT Act Large wars Horrible famine and drought End of world as we know it Total economic collapse Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI February 2008 Kevin Surace 41
  • 23. Pascal’s Wager 20
  • 24. 21
  • 25. How can I make any difference? 22
  • 26. quot;A victory small enough to be organized is too small to be decisive.quot; --Eliot Janeway, Struggle for Survival 23
  • 27. 24
  • 28. 25
  • 29. Tracking Illegal Deforestation in Brazil with Google Earth Source: New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/americas/19brazil.html 26
  • 30. 27
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  • 32. 29
  • 33. 30
  • 34. 31
  • 35. 32
  • 36. Great challenge = Great opportunity 33
  • 37. The Berlin Airlift • 2.3 Million tons from 277,569 total flights • One flight landing every 2 1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 15 months • At peak, one landing per minute • Planes unloaded by local residents - volunteers -10 tons in 10 minutes! • Development of modern methods of air traffic control • Companies such as Boeing, Lockheed • Ultimately, the basis for air freight companies like FedEx 34
  • 38. 35
  • 39. 36
  • 40. 37
  • 41. Compliments on extremadura etc 38
  • 42. 39
  • 43. 40
  • 44. 41
  • 45. 42
  • 46. 43
  • 47. 44
  • 48. 45
  • 49. 46
  • 50. 47
  • 51. 48
  • 52. 49
  • 53. 50
  • 54. Robust Strategy #2 Create more value than you capture 51
  • 55. “Visionary companies ... are not afraid to make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy Audacious Goals’” --Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last 52
  • 56. IBM’s original forecast for the PC 53
  • 57. IBM’s original forecast for the PC 53
  • 58. 54
  • 59. “A PC on every desk and in every home” 55
  • 60. “The PC is just a toy.” 56
  • 61. In 1998, search had largely been written off as a business opportunity... 57
  • 62. “Organize all the world’s information” 58
  • 63. Do you think we’re done yet? 59
  • 64. 60
  • 65. 61