The document discusses both sides of the debate around human-induced climate change and global warming. It provides information from proponents of anthropogenic global warming as well as skeptics who argue that natural factors play a larger role. A variety of data and studies are presented looking at solar activity, cosmic rays, greenhouse gases and their potential impacts on global temperature and climate change over historical time scales.

1. Man’s Role in Climate Change: A Student’s Understanding Marty Cornell October 26, 2009

2. Does the Science Support Human-Induced Global Warming?

3. Correlation is not causation.

4. Correlation is not causation.

5. “ Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent that combating climate change. The Science is Beyond dispute and the facts are clear .” President-elect Barack Obama, November 19, 2008

6. Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize Physics, 1997 “ Science has unambiguously shown that we’re altering the destiny of our planet” “ The science is clear, we’re boiling our planet” 2009 speech at Tsinghua University, China

7. “ With all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.” +100 PhD Scientists in LA Times Ad, March 30, 2009 “… ..The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.”….

8. The Issue: Climate Change Global Warming Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Carbon-based (CAGW)

9. Two Views on Global Warming Empirical Data Computer model projections Current trend is minor and nothing unusual Driving to tipping point crisis of run-away heat Solar Cycle driven, forcings to be determined CO 2 GHG driven, amplified by H 2 O Earth has warmed 0.6 O C last century Earth has warmed 0.6 O C last century Proponents of Natural Cycles (“skeptics”, “deniers”, “flat earthers”) Proponents of CAGW (“alarmists”, “environmentalists”)

10. James E. Hansen, CAGW Proponent NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 26 April 2007 testimony to the Select Committee of Energy Independence and Global Warming of the U. S. House of Representatives entitled "Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate" Air temperatures of the last quarter-century have been unprecedented for at least the past two thousand years. The atmosphere's current CO 2 concentration is greater than it may have been for tens of millions of years. The earth "is close to dangerous climate change, to tipping points of the system with the potential for irreversible deleterious effects."

11. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summarizes the peer reviewed literature on climate every five years What? Physical Science Basis So What? Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Now What? Mitigation

12. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policy Makers Provide the science to support the need to control greenhouse gas levels. Written by an assemblage of representative from governments and NGO’s, with only a small scientific representation.

13. “ Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.” Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 O C/decade Aerosols = -0.001 O C/decade Solar = 0.007 O C/decade People = ~ 0.06 O C/decade

14. People = ~ 0.06 O C/decade “ Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.” Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 O C/decade Aerosols = -0.001 O C/decade Solar = 0.007 O C/decade

15. People = ~ 0.06 O C/decade “ Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.” Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 O C/decade Aerosols = -0.001 O C/decade Solar = 0.007 O C/decade

16. “ Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.” Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 O C/decade Aerosols = -0.001 O C/decade Solar = 0.007 O C/decade People = ~ 0.06 O C/decade

17. “ Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.” Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 O C/decade Aerosols = -0.001 O C/decade Solar = 0.007 O C/decade People = ~ 0.06 O C/decade

18. The notion of a static, unchanging climate is foreign to the history of the earth or any other planet with a fluid envelope. The fact that the developed world went into hysterics over changes in global mean temperature anomaly of a few tenths of a degree will astound future generations. Such hysteria simply represents the scientific illiteracy of much of the public, the susceptibility of the public to the substitution of repetition for truth, and the exploitation of these weaknesses by politicians, environmental promoters, and, after 20 years of media drum beating, many others as well. Richard S. Lindzen, CAGW Skeptic Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 26, 2009

19. Global Warming Petition Project 31,478 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs

20. “ The focus on just CO 2 as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow. Natural variations are still quite important. Human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO 2 . ” Emission of aerosols into the atmosphere, Land management and land cover change. Roger A. Pielke, Both Natural and AGW Senior Research Scientist at CIRES, emeritus professor of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, retired.

21. “Climate Money”, Joan Nova, via The Science and Public Policy Institute , July, 2009 $79 Billion so far e.g. carbon sequestration

22. Cap & Trade Cost $1,761 per Household Source: US Treasury

23. What is Climate? What causes climate change? How do we measure climate change? Is the current warming unusual? How much of the current warming is due to man vs. nature? What Does the Science Say?

24. Climate is what you expect.

25. Weather is what you get.

26. Brazoria County Airport Weekly Mean Temperature, O F Annual Precipitation, Inches Wind Speed, mph

27. What is Climate? What causes climate change? What Does the Science Say?

28. Changes in Solar Inputs Changes in the Atmosphere: Composition, Circulation Atmosphere N 2 , O 2 , Ar, H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, O 3 , etc. Aerosols Changes in the Hydrological Cycle Clouds Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction Biosphere Ice Sheet Land-Atmosphere Interaction Land Surface Soil-Biosphere Interaction Volcanic Activity Glaciers Changes in the Cryosphere: Snow, Frozen Ground, Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Glaciers Changes in/on the Land Surface:Orography, Land Use, Vegetation, Ecosystems Human Influences Changes in the Ocean: Circulation, Sea Level, Biogeochemistry Hydrosphere: Rivers & Lakes Ice-Ocean Coupling Hydrosphere: Ocean Atmosphere-Ice Interaction Sea Ice Heat Exchange Wind Stress Precipitation Evaporation Terrestrial Radiation Components of the Climate System

29. ERBE Earth Radiation Budget Experiment 3 satellites, 1 st launched in 1984 Measure energy exchanges between sun, earth, & space Albedo (reflectance) OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) Effect of clouds

31. Emission Spectra of the Sun and Earth JunkScience.com, Updated August 2007

32. 390 Surface Radiation Greenhouse Gases Incoming Solar Radiation 342 Wm -2 Reflected Solar Radiation 107 Wm -2 107 Outgoing Longwave Radiation 235 Wm -2 235 Emitted by Atmosphere 165 30 Reflected by Surface Reflected by Clouds, Aerosol, and Atmospheric Gases 77 Wm -2 77 168 Absorbed by Surface 350 40 40 Atmospheric Window Emitted by clouds 30 67 Absorbed by Atmosphere Latent 78 Heat 78 Evapo-transpiration 24 Thermals 324 Back Radiation 324 Absorbed by Surface

34. Without greenhouse gases, the earth would be 33 O C (59.4 O F) cooler! i.e. -18 O C instead of +15 O C

35. NASA CERES Satellite 33 Wm -2 Reflected by Clouds 235 Wm -2 Outgoing Longwave Radiation

36. TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ The # 1 Green House Gas Is: The # 2 Greenhouse Gas Is: The # 3 Greenhouse Gas Is:

37. Contribution of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases to the Natural Greenhouse Effect Hans Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, Emissions and Air Quality , SAE, 1999 Water Vapor (60 - 95)% (2 - 10)% Tropospheric Ozone (2 - 10)% Nitrous Oxide (0 - 10)% Stratospheric H 2 O (5 - 25)% Halocarbons (10 - 25)% Methane (35 - 65)% Carbon Dioxide Remaining Greenhouse Gases (5 - 40)% (0.5 - 1.5)% Global Greenhouse Effect Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect

38. The primary source of CO 2 emissions is…….. TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ

39. The primary source of CO 2 emissions is: “… ..the transportation sector now accounts for about one third of all CO 2 emissions in the US and road transportation is three quarters of that third.” TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ Malcom A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Elizabeth M. Drake, Andreas Schafer, Felix F. AuYeung; ON THE ROAD IN 2020, A life cycle analysis of new automobile technologies , Energy Laboratory Report # MIT EL 00-003, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, October, 2000 MIT got it WRONG!

40. “ The United States and China emit 45% of the world’s greenhouse gases.” Press release prior to her Feb., 2009 trip to China Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton She got it WRONG!

41. Scatter Band of Global Annual CO 2 Emissions (ref. year = 1996) Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, “State of Worldwide Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions Forecast of Traffic Emissions in Western Industrial Countries”, FISITA F98P008 Oceans 43% Vegetation 28% Soil 28% Biomass Burning 1%

43. ~36,000 Billion Tons Carbon in Oceans Mauna Loa

44. 0.038% (dry air)

45. The #1 source of man made CO 2 is…… TESTING YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL IQ

46. Distribution of Worldwide Annual Anthropogene CO 2 -Emission 32% Cars 33% Trucks 12% Other Traffic 6% Ocean Ships 17% Air Traffic Private Home Heating and Small Consumers 20% Incineration of Biomass 15% Traffic 17% Power Stations 28% Industry 20% 28 Gt/yr.

47. Background  Forcings

48. Climate “Forcings” Change Energy Balance The Sun Clouds (type and amount) Aerosols & Particulates Albedo (reflectivity) Land Use (vegetation, Urban Heat Island) Green House Gas Concentration

49. Milankovitch Cycles Drive Ice Age Cycles 21,000 year cycle elliptical orbit combined with tilt (precession of the equinoxes) 41,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5 O wobble (tilt) 100,000 year cycle variation of the shape of earth’s elliptical orbit (cycle of eccentricity)

50. Eccentricity of Earth’s Orbit National Academy of Sciences

51. Ice Volume Planktonic Foram 18 O as Proxy 1,000 of Years Ago Del 18 O % More Ice Less Ice Polar Bear Sub-species

52. This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams Note: Sea Level incorrect.

53. This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams

54. The Holocene Optimum

55. http://uk.encarta.msn.com/media_461527006/ice_extent_during_the_last_ice_age.html Oceans ~-120m = ~ -400 feet! During Last Glacial Maximum

56. ~14mm/year Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com

57. Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com 20.2 cm/122 years = ~0.17 cm/year

58. 16.6 years Data via Climate Audit from climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators / Sea Level Change 21 Aug09 54 mm

59. Ice Volume Planktonic Foram O-18 as Proxy 1,000 of Years Ago Del O-18 % More Ice Less Ice “ Eustatic sea level was higher than present during this last interglacial by ~4 to ~6 meters” IPCC 4TAR, Palaeoclimate, p 458

62. NASA & ESA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO Spotless Days Current Stretch: 75 days 2009 total: 217 days Since 2004: 728 days Typical Solar Min: 485 days 2009/09/23

63. Faculae

64. 11 Year Cycle of Solar Variability +/- 0.1 Wm -2

65. Sunspot Number

66. Sunspot Number X 100 50 150 100 Little Ice Age ~1.0 O C cooler ~ 50 sunspots over 30 year period, vs. 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots per 30 years in modern times

67. Frozen Thames, 1677

68. Correlation is not causation.

69. Solar Cycle & Sea Level ( via Tide Gauges) Recall the NASA current 3.3 mm/year rise rate since 1994

70. Sun Summary The Sun dominates Earth’s climate. Earth’s orbit eccentricities cause major climate changes: Ice Ages  Interglacials, ~5.5 O C swings in temperature average, Ice ages dominate (70% - 90% of 100,000 yr cycle). Ice Ages decrease vegetation, increase deserts. Sea levels have risen 120 m since the last glacial maximum. Today’s temperatures are not unusual, having been equaled or exceeded at least 3 times since the last glacial maximum. ~11 year solar cycles strongly correlate with climate changes during interglacial periods. Low sunspots  ~ -1 O C. Modern sea level fluctuations highly correlate with solar cycle.

71. Solar +/- 0.1 Wm -2 not sufficient by itself to cause current warming; need amplifier, forcing feedback. Magnetic field of solar winds Henrik Svensmark on Global Warming, youtube.com Affect cosmic rays reaching Earth’s atmosphere +/- Low level clouds

72. High (6 km) Cirrus Clouds Warm Earth

73. Low Clouds Reflect Sunlight  Cool Earth Photo by Robert Campbell

74. Measuring Earth’s Albedo

75. Observed Earthshine From satellite cloud data From 20 th century GHG Increase Calibration Band

76. Strength of Solar Wind  +/- Magnetic Field  -/+ Cosmic Rays Bow shock line Magnetosphere

77. Illustration by Janet Kozyra with images from NASA, Journal of Geophysical Research – Space Physics. Sun’s Turbulent Magnetic Fields

78. The Cosmos Cosmic Rays Create Seeds of Low-lying Clouds Svensmark Hypothesis Reflect 33 Wm -2

79. A more active Sun decreases the amounts of low-lying clouds, which means that it warms the Earth. The Cosmos Cosmic Rays Creates Seeds of Low-lying Clouds Svensmark Hypothesis Cosmic Rays Since 1987 Implies ~ -5% Cloud H 2 O  ~ +1 O C

80. The Solar – Climate Relationship Lower Magnetic Field Strength Fewer Sunspots Less Solar Wind More Galactic Cosmic Rays More Low Level Cloud Formation More Sunlight Reflected Into Space Earth Becomes Cooler

81. Inverse of Cosmic Rays Solar Flux Ocean Heat Flux Atlantic Ocean Heat Flux Sea Surface Temp. SST w/out ENSO Sea Level Rise

82. Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003 Icehouse Greenhouse CO 2 GCR Million Years BP

83. Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003 Icehouse Greenhouse CO 2 GCR Million Years BP

84. El Capitan, Guadalupe Mountains Coral reef formed ~260 million years ago…. … ..when atmospheric CO 2 was ~2000 ppm

85. Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core, 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response) Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009 Correlation is not causation.

86. Inquisition of Dr. Henrik Svensmark

87. Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009

89. Correlation is not causation.

90. “ When researchers observe natural changes in clouds and temperature, they have traditionally assumed that the temperature change caused the clouds to change, and not the other way around. To the extent that the cloud changes actually cause temperature change, this can ultimately lead to overestimates of how sensitive Earth’s climate is to our greenhouse gas emissions.” Cause?  CLOUDS  Result? and Temperature Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville,

91. Atmospheric Solar Heat Amplifier Meehl Hypothesis, Science, 28Aug09 Peak Solar Cycle +0.2 Wm -2 Irradiance Higher UV Radiation More Ozone in Stratosphere Higher Evaporation Less Low Level Cloud Formation +0.1 O C SST = > 0.5 Wm -2 Warmer Stratosphere (Varies by Latitude)

92. Observed Model: no Stratosphere Ozone Chemistry Model: no Air-Sea interaction Coupled Model Sea Surface Temperature Precipitation

93. Model with no Ozone Chemistry Model: no Air-Sea interaction Coupled Model Observations

94. Photo by Andrei Aiordachioaie Cloud Summary High level clouds trap heat. Low level clouds mostly reflect heat Net effect is ~ 33 Wm -2 Sun  GCR hypothesis  + or – cloud seeding  -5% Cloud H 2 O  ~ +1 O C Albedo fluctuation correlated with last two solar cycles. Meehl hypothesis: peak solar  more ozone and more evaporation (less clouds)  ~ +0.1 O C SST.

95. Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005 Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32 Cloud Albedo 0 -2 +2 +1 -1 Wm -2

96. Solar  Aerosols

97. Sarychev Peak Eruption 12Jun09, from International Space Station Atmospheric Aerosols & Particulates  Net Cooling of -0.5 Wm -2 (IPCC 4TR) @ 1 Wm -2  0.22 O C, this ~ -0.11 O C

98. Sahara Sand Storm over Atlantic

100. Station Fire, Los Angeles, 30Aug09

101. Contrails

102. Ship Tracks off North America

103. Black Carbon Absorbs solar radiation Decreases albedo IPCC 4TAR: Aerosol cooling  -0.5 Wm -2 Myhre 2009 “Black Carbon more significant than stated by IPCC,  net aerosol cooling reduced to -0.3 Wm -2

104. Aerosol Summary Particles Multi-Task to Change Climate: Volcanic plumes (sulfates) cool. Dust storms & fires reflect, thus cool. Jet Contrails = high clouds, thus warm. Ship tracks (sulfates, low clouds) cool. Black carbon decreases albedo, thus warm. IPCC net effect  -0.5 Wm -2 (i.e. cooling) Increase in Black Carbon decreases cooling to -0.3 Wm -2 This means IPCC impact of CO 2 is overstated by 0.2 Wm -2 ~ 0.04 O C.

105. Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005 Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32 Direct Aerosol Cloud Albedo Linear Contrails 0 -2 +2 +1 -1 Wm -2 No volcanic aerosol effect is included by IPCC

106. Aerosols  Oscillations

107. “ Oscillations” Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere , John Christy UAH Recall 20 th Century net warming of 0.6 O C ~+/- 0.5 O C in north Atlantic 60 to 80 years Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation AMO ?? 1976-77 shift +0.2 O C 20 to 30 years? Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO +/- 0.4 O C globally 3 to 7 years El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO 2.3 O C global temp. swing Annually The 4 seasons SFWS

108. J D N O S A J J M A M F Month Temperature, O C 16 11 12 13 14 15 Global Mean Surface Temperature (1961 – 1990) National Climate Data Center 3.8 O C

109. Global Mean 2.3 O C swing NH 9.76 O C swing SH 4.8 O C swing

110. ENSO “Normal” a.k.a La Nina

112. ENSO El Nino

113. SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, January 1997 NASA GISS Thermocline, 20 O C 30 O C 8 O C La Nina

114. SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, November 1997 NASA GISS Transition

115. SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, March 1998 NASA GISS El Nino

116. Note

117. El Nino

118. La Nina

119. La Nina

120. Nothing unique about super El Nino of 1998

121. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors), Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface wind stress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of PDO Warm Phase Cool Phase

122. Abrupt PDO Phase Shift

125. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Aug to Oct: 1948 to 2003: Surface SST

126. North Atlantic Global

127. “ Probably more than half of all satellite- derived "global warming trends" are directly attributable to the 66 year AMO cycle.”

128. Northern Hemisphere Heating Faster Than Southern Hemisphere

129. Correlation is not causation.