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Announcements – March 16, 2011
New York Times October 1, 2004  With Russia's Nod, Treaty on Emissions Clears Last Hurdle   The long-delayed Kyoto Protoco...
CNN Nov. 10, 2004 Climate report leaves U.S. policy unchanged - Climate treaty considered threat to U.S. jobs and economic...
26 September 2006 World 'warmest for 12,000 years The world is the warmest it has been in the last 12,000 years as a resul...
2 April 2010 More than 90 record-high temperatures were  recorded in the Midwest and Great Lakes yesterday. And perhaps an...
November 24, 2009 Why You Should Be Hot and Bothered About 'Climate-gate' By John Lott A coordinated campaign to hide scie...
Air Quality I <ul><li>Lecture Objectives: </li></ul><ul><li>What is the greenhouse effect? </li></ul><ul><li>Is global cli...
 
What are Greenhouse Gases? <ul><li>Gases that are transparent to light, but absorb infrared radiation </li></ul><ul><li>Ma...
What do we know?
Data show:  current rapid build-up of  ‘greenhouse’ gases (eg. CO 2 ) But how do we know past climates? What do we know?
<ul><ul><li>Polar ice caps record history of recent pollution and historical climate change in build-up of ice layers </li...
What do we know?
The Controversy <ul><li>Debate : 1. Are the increasing levels of CO 2  due to  natural climate cycles or human-generated? ...
What do we know? <ul><li>Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere.  </li></ul><ul><li>Human act...
What do we know? National Academies of the USA National report 2008
What do we know?
What is likely but not certain? <ul><li>Rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase global warming <...
What are the big unknowns? <ul><li>Exact local impacts on health, agriculture, water resources, forests, wildlife and coas...
Evidence for Global Climate Change <ul><li>IPCC –Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Appointed...
<ul><li>IPCC conclusions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. CO 2  and temperature correlated  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. 0.6  C ...
1.  1.0  F (0.6  C) average temperature  increase since 1861
<ul><li>Climatic records indicate a correlation between CO 2  concentration and global temperatures over the past  400,000...
Nature  2002 419:188-190
www.isgs.illinois.edu
3. Declines in snow and ice cover South Cascade Glacier, Washington State
Mount Kilimanjaro, one of the few places in the world where ice and snow can be found on the equator,  could lose its enti...
4.  Increases in sea level (10-20 cm) http://www.umac.org/ocp/paradise/outlook.htm
Rising sea levels  coastal flooding
5. Human activity is the cause www.ipcc.ch
Effects of Global Climate Change <ul><li>Not uniform; regional differences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>some areas hotter, some c...
Worsening Health Effects <ul><li>Direct heat stress:  2003 heat wave in France killed 15,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Diseases:  ...
Animals and Plants <ul><li>Shift northward in species distribution </li></ul>
Flowers bloom earlier as UK warms By Richard Black 7 April 2010 British plants are flowering earlier now than at any time ...
Agriculture and Food Supply <ul><li>Increase yields for some crops, but not uniformly </li></ul><ul><li>World food supply ...
Disruption of Water & Weather Cycles? <ul><li>Major changes to hydrological cycle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased evaporat...
23 September 2005 Hurricanes and global warming - a link?  The most recent study on the issue, found that while the incide...
Is there anything we can do? <ul><li>Reduce Greenhouse Gases by: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Reducing emissions </li></ul><ul><li...
How to reduce greenhouse gases?  <ul><li>Improve energy efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current & future buildings using ...
 
EPA Announces Landmark Greenhouse Gas  Regulations Plan For Nation's Biggest Polluters  12/23/10 A press release from the ...
House votes to block funding for EPA's greenhouse gas regulations Feb 18, 2011  The House approved a GOP amendment to fede...
Side Benefits of Reducing Emissions <ul><li>Reduced air pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Increased human health  = lower health...
Points to know  <ul><li>What is the greenhouse effect? What are the greenhouse gases? </li></ul><ul><li>What do we know fo...
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15 climate change

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15 climate change

  1. 1. Announcements – March 16, 2011
  2. 2. New York Times October 1, 2004 With Russia's Nod, Treaty on Emissions Clears Last Hurdle The long-delayed Kyoto Protocol on global warming overcame its last critical hurdle to taking effect around the world on Thursday when Russia's cabinet endorsed the treaty and sent it to Parliament. The treaty is the first to require cuts in emissions linked to global warming. The United States has rejected the treaty and will not be bound by its restrictions. But the treaty, which has already been ratified by 120 countries will take effect if supporters include nations accounting for at least 55 percent of all industrialized countries' 1990-level emissions. The only way for it to cross that threshold was with ratification by Russia. In 1990, the United States accounted for 36.1 percent of emissions from industrialized countries, and Russia 17.4 percent.
  3. 3. CNN Nov. 10, 2004 Climate report leaves U.S. policy unchanged - Climate treaty considered threat to U.S. jobs and economic growth WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush is holding fast to his rejection of mandatory curbs on greenhouse gases that are blamed for global warming, despite a fresh report from 300 scientists in the United States and seven other nations that shows Arctic temperatures are rising. Critics say Bush's opposition is ironic because the treaty was modeled after the market-based U.S. program for cutting acid rain created in 1990 by Bush's father and often pointed to by the current administration as a success story.
  4. 4. 26 September 2006 World 'warmest for 12,000 years The world is the warmest it has been in the last 12,000 years as a result of rapid warming over the past 30 years, a study has suggested. Nasa climatologists said the Earth had warmed by about 0.2C (0.4F) in each of the last three decades. As a result, plant and animal species were struggling to migrate fast enough to cooler regions, they said.
  5. 5. 2 April 2010 More than 90 record-high temperatures were recorded in the Midwest and Great Lakes yesterday. And perhaps an even better record came for the residents of Minneapolis-St. Paul in Minnesota - for only the third time in recorded history there was no snow measured during the month of March. (Records date back to 1859). Rochester, Minnesota, shattered its old record high of 71 degrees when the temperature soared to 83 degrees yesterday. Chicago also recorded a record high temperature for April 1 of 83.
  6. 6. November 24, 2009 Why You Should Be Hot and Bothered About 'Climate-gate' By John Lott A coordinated campaign to hide scientific information about climate change appears unprecedented. Could it wind up costing us trillions? “ Agenda-driven scientists want to push the U.S. into a costly climate pact” Sarah Palin - www.ajc.com
  7. 7. Air Quality I <ul><li>Lecture Objectives: </li></ul><ul><li>What is the greenhouse effect? </li></ul><ul><li>Is global climate change/warming real? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the worst-case scenarios under global climate change? </li></ul>
  8. 9. What are Greenhouse Gases? <ul><li>Gases that are transparent to light, but absorb infrared radiation </li></ul><ul><li>Mainly CO 2 , but also chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide </li></ul><ul><li>General Causes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Burning coal, oil, gas: releases CO 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deforestation: releases stored CO 2 , reduces CO 2 storage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More CO 2 emitted than can be absorbed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrialized nations </li></ul></ul>
  9. 10. What do we know?
  10. 11. Data show: current rapid build-up of ‘greenhouse’ gases (eg. CO 2 ) But how do we know past climates? What do we know?
  11. 12. <ul><ul><li>Polar ice caps record history of recent pollution and historical climate change in build-up of ice layers </li></ul></ul>What do we know?
  12. 13. What do we know?
  13. 14. The Controversy <ul><li>Debate : 1. Are the increasing levels of CO 2 due to natural climate cycles or human-generated? </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>2 .Can increasing levels of CO 2 really change the climate? Does it matter? </li></ul><ul><li>Opponents argue that reducing emissions will hurt the economy </li></ul><ul><li>Supporters argue that not reducing emissions may have catastrophic effects, so isn ’t it better to be safe than sorry? </li></ul>
  14. 15. What do we know? <ul><li>Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. </li></ul><ul><li>Human activities are strengthening Earth's natural greenhouse effect. </li></ul><ul><li>A warming trend of about 1°F (0.6 C) has been recorded since the late 19th century. </li></ul>http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html
  15. 16. What do we know? National Academies of the USA National report 2008
  16. 17. What do we know?
  17. 18. What is likely but not certain? <ul><li>Rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase global warming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>to what extent is difficult to determine. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Average global temperatures will continue to rise. By how much and how fast remain uncertain </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Could be 2.2 - 10°F </li></ul></ul>
  18. 19. What are the big unknowns? <ul><li>Exact local impacts on health, agriculture, water resources, forests, wildlife and coastal areas </li></ul><ul><li>Large-scale predictions easier to make than small-scale predictions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will local rainfall increase or decrease? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will hurricanes be more frequent or severe? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will ocean currents change? </li></ul></ul>
  19. 20. Evidence for Global Climate Change <ul><li>IPCC –Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Appointed by the United Nations in 1988 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mission: To study the issue and make recommendations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>First Assessment published 1990 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Second Assessment published in 1996 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Third Assessment published in 2001 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.ipcc.ch/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific Basis, Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability, Mitigation, Synthesis </li></ul></ul></ul>
  20. 21. <ul><li>IPCC conclusions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. CO 2 and temperature correlated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. 0.6  C (1.0  F) ave. temperature increase since 1861 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. Declines in snow and ice cover since 1960s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. 10-20 cm sea-level increase in last 100 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. human activity is the cause </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Near unanimity of scientific opinion </li></ul><ul><li>National Research Council (U.S.) agrees </li></ul>Evidence for Global Climate Change
  21. 22. 1. 1.0  F (0.6  C) average temperature increase since 1861
  22. 23. <ul><li>Climatic records indicate a correlation between CO 2 concentration and global temperatures over the past 400,000 years </li></ul>2. CO 2 and temperature are correlated
  23. 24. Nature 2002 419:188-190
  24. 25. www.isgs.illinois.edu
  25. 26. 3. Declines in snow and ice cover South Cascade Glacier, Washington State
  26. 27. Mount Kilimanjaro, one of the few places in the world where ice and snow can be found on the equator, could lose its entire ice field by 2020 because of climate change. The ice fields Ernest Hemingway once described as &quot;wide as all the world, great, high, and unbelievably white in the sun&quot; have lost 82 percent of their ice since 1912—the year their full extent was first measured.
  27. 28. 4. Increases in sea level (10-20 cm) http://www.umac.org/ocp/paradise/outlook.htm
  28. 29. Rising sea levels coastal flooding
  29. 30. 5. Human activity is the cause www.ipcc.ch
  30. 31. Effects of Global Climate Change <ul><li>Not uniform; regional differences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>some areas hotter, some colder, some wetter, dryer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Local and regional changes are difficult to predict </li></ul>
  31. 32. Worsening Health Effects <ul><li>Direct heat stress: 2003 heat wave in France killed 15,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Diseases: cold weather kills many diseases, especially mosquito-borne diseases: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, encephalitis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ozone: pollutant near the ground </li></ul><ul><li>Cholera: – ENSO link </li></ul>
  32. 33. Animals and Plants <ul><li>Shift northward in species distribution </li></ul>
  33. 34. Flowers bloom earlier as UK warms By Richard Black 7 April 2010 British plants are flowering earlier now than at any time in the last 250 years, according to new analysis. Flowers are now emerging about five days earlier than 30-40 years ago. Researchers stitched together nearly 400,000 first flowering records covering 405 species across the nation. They show that the average first flowering date has been earlier in the last 25 years than in any other period. Flowering dates are closely linked to temperatures recorded in the Central England Temperature Record. This is the longest continuous instrumental record of temperatures anywhere in the world, dating back to measurements made in 1659.
  34. 35. Agriculture and Food Supply <ul><li>Increase yields for some crops, but not uniformly </li></ul><ul><li>World food supply may be unaltered, but problems in poor countries will likely get worse </li></ul><ul><li>Increase pest populations </li></ul><ul><li>Increase need for irrigation </li></ul>
  35. 36. Disruption of Water & Weather Cycles? <ul><li>Major changes to hydrological cycle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased evaporation will dry some areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Exacerbate problems in Middle East & Africa </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased precipitation will flood some areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increased intensity of storms </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Problems with flood control </li></ul></ul></ul>
  36. 37. 23 September 2005 Hurricanes and global warming - a link? The most recent study on the issue, found that while the incidence of hurricanes and tropical storms has remained roughly constant over the last 30 years, there has been a rise in the number of intense hurricanes with wind speeds above 211km/h (131mph). The leader of that research project, Dr Peter Webster, believes there may be a link to climate change.
  37. 38. Is there anything we can do? <ul><li>Reduce Greenhouse Gases by: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Reducing emissions </li></ul><ul><li>2. Increasing CO 2 uptake </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Political and economic issues – need effective policy! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Annual US per capita contribution = 22 tons of CO 2 emissions per year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World average per capita = 6 tons </li></ul></ul>
  38. 39. How to reduce greenhouse gases? <ul><li>Improve energy efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current & future buildings using available, cost-effective technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase investments in renewable and longer-term technologies. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Carbon tax: stimulate development of increased efficiency, alternative energy sources </li></ul><ul><li>Removal of CO 2 from atmosphere </li></ul><ul><ul><li>plant trees </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stop deforestation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase CO 2 storage in the ocean </li></ul></ul>
  39. 41. EPA Announces Landmark Greenhouse Gas Regulations Plan For Nation's Biggest Polluters 12/23/10 A press release from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that new standards granted under the Clean Air Act will be implemented in 2012 to regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Unites States. The EPA's new plan will establish standards specifically for fossil fuel power plants and petroleum refineries, both of which combine to represent roughly 40 percent of GHG pollution in the United States.
  40. 42. House votes to block funding for EPA's greenhouse gas regulations Feb 18, 2011 The House approved a GOP amendment to federal spending legislation Friday that would block fiscal year 2011 funding for EPA’s implementation of greenhouse gas regulations.
  41. 43. Side Benefits of Reducing Emissions <ul><li>Reduced air pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Increased human health = lower health care costs & increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Improved energy efficiency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Reduced dependence on foreign oil </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Reduced need for expensive new power plants </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increased investment in alternative energy technologies (renewable resources)! </li></ul><ul><li>Who reaps benefits and who pays costs? </li></ul>
  42. 44. Points to know <ul><li>What is the greenhouse effect? What are the greenhouse gases? </li></ul><ul><li>What do we know for sure in the controversy over global climate change? What are the big unknowns? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the IPCC? What conclusions did it reach regarding global warming? Did the National Research Council of the U.S. agree with their findings? </li></ul><ul><li>Will global warming be felt evenly across the earth? Can we predict what will happen in a given region? </li></ul><ul><li>How can we reduce greenhouse gases? What are some side benefits of emission reduction? </li></ul>

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