2. 2
Executive Summary
• The current enrollment level is roughly equal to enrollment
levels from 1990s
• The current projected enrollment from does not take in to
account net student inflows from existing home sales
• Projected enrollment, adjusted for an average level of
existing home sales, suggests enrollment will grow again
in the future
• Closing an elementary school has a minimal impact on
projected per pupil operating expenses
• The current budget & balance sheet of KLDS is healthy
3. 3
Total Enrollment
• Current total enrollment in 2013-2014 is 3,374
• Total enrollment is 9.5% less than the 20 year historical
average
• Total enrollment is 17% higher than total enrollment of
2,883 in 1993
• The enrollment today is roughly the same as the average
enrollment throughout the 1990s
• The system of 6 schools has existed throughout a wide
range of student enrollment levels
Enrollment Data Source: KLSD Twenty Year Enrollment Data by School and Grade
http://klschooldistrict.org/news_and_media/school_closure_task_force
4. 4
Projecting Enrollment
• Demographic projections by their nature are speculative
and very sensitive to assumptions
• Current demographic forecast being used is primarily
driven by a birth rate projection
• The current forecast assumes births for the next 5 years
are 25% lower than the prior 10 year average
• The current forecast excludes the impact from existing
home sales: “None of the forthcoming enrollment
projection calculations account for home resales as this
was beyond the scope of our analysis.” – Pages 22 and 26 of
Statistical Forecasting’s Demographic Study, August 2012
6. 6
State, County & District Demographics
%
difference
Age
Group
NY
State
Westchester
County
Katonah
-‐
Lewisboro
from
County
Under
20
Years
25.3%
26.5%
29.4%
10.8%
20
-‐
29
Years
14.4%
11.2%
6.1%
(45.8%)
30
-‐
39
Years
13.1%
12.3%
7.8%
(36.5%)
40-‐49
Years
14.5%
15.5%
18.9%
21.9%
50-‐59
Years
13.7%
14.2%
19.8%
39.6%
60
&
Older
19.0%
20.3%
18.0%
(11.2%)
Observations
• Katonah-Lewisboro has a very different demographic age mix when compared to NY State &
Westchester County
• KLSD has a high percentage of people that will reach retirement age within 10 years
• KLSD has 10% more people under 20 years of age when compared to the County; Does this
suggest KLSD may be a more desirable location to raise a family than Westchester County as a
whole?
• KLSD has 11% fewer people over 59 years of age when compared to the County; Does this suggest
KLSD may be a less desirable location for retirement than Westchester County as a whole?
Source: 2010 U.S. Census (http://factfinder2.census.gov)
7. 7
Existing Home Sales
• The Demographic Study conducted by Statistical Forecasting is
primarily driven by birth data from the past 5 years and a
projection for the next 5 years that is substantially lower than
the historical average
• Average annual sales of existing homes between 1993 and
2007 were 313; From 2008-2011, they have averaged only 161
• Existing home sales are finally recovering
• Statistical Forecasting’s study does not attempt to estimate the
impact from this dip in existing home sales
KLSD’s skewed demographic distribution dramatically impacts birth rate
models and the impact from existing home sales
Source: Statistical Forecasting Demographic Study, August 2012
http://klschooldistrict.org/news_and_media/school_closure_task_force
8. 8
Existing Home Sales, cont’d
• YTD 2013, existing home sales in Lewisboro are 27.6%
higher than in the same period in 2011
• For comparison, neighboring Bedford saw existing home
sales increase 19.3% in the same period
• The demographic impact from increased existing home
sales should be estimated using a variety of assumptions
• According to Jim Renwick, President of Renwick
Sotheby’s Realty:
"The sellers in all the towns [in and around
Lewisboro] are for the most part older and the
buyers for the most part younger, the basic
turnover. The buyers, for the most part, come
from lower Westchester and NYC."
9. 9
Lewisboro real estate is priced comparably
to peer districts and the county
Single
Family
ResidenDal
Real
Estate
Sales
Area
Westchester
County
Average
Average
Sales
Price
$639,613
Bedford
$1,145,444
Pound
Ridge
$1,001,673
North
Salem
$755,890
Mt.
Kisco
$653,417
Somers
$566,559
ManhaSan
$1,410,759
Lewisboro
$642,367
Lewisboro
Premium
to
Westchester
County
Avg
Source: Eliman Report; Renwick Sotheby’s Newsletter
0.4%
10. 10
Estimating the Impact from Increased
Existing Home Sales
• If existing home sales return to the pre-downturn average
over the next 5 years, the projected enrollment changes
dramatically
• If a majority of home buyers are young families as
Renwick Sotheby’s suggests, then young children will
return to Lewisboro and the cycle will repeat
• In Westchester County, the average family has 1.98
children (source: 2010 US Census Bureau)
• If the average new young family also has 2 children, this
adds over 1,000 new students to the system over the next
5 years when compared to the Enrollment Projection
Excluding Existing Home Sales
11. 11
Projected Enrollment with Average Historical Existing
Home Sales and Normal Transaction Trends
3,500
3,449
3,450
3,400
3,350
3,479
3,399
3,366
3,363
3,300
3,252
3,250
3,200
3,230
3,266
Projected
Enrollment
3,210
3,150
3,100
3,050
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
2017-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
Note: This projection adds the enrollment impact from home resales to the existing study
conducted by Statistical Forecasting, as the existing study did not include it.
12. 12
Assumptions for Adjusted
Projected Enrollment
• Existing home sales grow at 12% per year for the following 5 years from a
•
•
•
•
base that is 10% lower than the 20 year historical average
Existing home sales peak at a level 10% lower than prior peak
Annual enrollment growth averages 32 students per year. In the 1990s,
enrollment grew by an average of 171 students per year.
Assumes the majority (2/3) of buyers are young families. Renwick Sotheby’s
observes that “The sellers in all the towns [around Lewisboro] are for the
most part older and the buyers for the most part younger, the basic turnover.”
The average young family will have 2 children, in line with the average in
Westchester County, and these children will attend schools in the KLSD
District (current demographics from US Census support this)
13. 13
Conclusions
• The current student enrollment level is within the normal
historical range
• Given annual savings of $1.7M, the incremental cost to
defer a decision on closing one or two elementary schools
for an extra two years is $3.4M
• This amount appears to be inconsequential to the overall
budget and current financial situation
• The future stability of KLDS enrollment depends on
existing home sales to young families
• Does closing a school make the area less attractive to
prospective young family home buyers?
14. 14
Conclusions, cont’d
• The Board of Education and School Closure Task Force has
done an excellent job involving the community
• Four public hearings scheduled for community feedback
• The community has reciprocated, and turnout at public
hearings has been high
• The community seems confused about the BOE’s goals and
objectives
• Is the BOE trying to reduce our district’s relatively high expense
per pupil?
• Is there an academic benefit from school closure?
• Current enrollment is 17% higher than the early 1990’s, how
has capacity changed since then?
16. 16
KLSD Budget Overview
• KLSD maintains a balanced budget, and it has been able to pay down
debt and increase its cash reserves over the past 3 years
• Outstanding serial bonds stood at $34.1M at June 30, 2012,
representing an average debt paydown of $4.3M per year from the
balance of $47.0M at June 30, 2009
• General fund balance is $14.3M as of June 30, 2012 and was $13.7M
at June 30, 2009
• There does not appear to be a current budget shortfall, nor does there
appear to be a current need to raise cash
• The expense projections, however, suggest the budget will become
imbalanced in the coming years
17. 17
KLSD Expenditure per Pupil
• Total expenditures per pupil in the district was 21.4%
higher than the comparable school districts, and over 35%
higher than the NY State average
• The current budget is not out of balance, but its current
spending relative to comparable districts is very high
• Total expenditures per pupil are projected to grow
substantially
• Closing a school does not meaningfully improve the
projected total expenditures per pupil
Source: 2013-2014 Boad of Education’s Budget
http://klschooldistrict.org/boe/budget_information
18. 18
Expenses per Pupil
A
B
C
Projected
Expenses
Less:
Debt
service
Operang
Expenses
2010-‐2011
2011-‐2012
2012-‐2013
2013-‐2014
2014-‐2015
2015-‐2016
2016-‐2017
106,611,674
105,105,784
112,996,167
116,358,554
120,513,265
124,035,751
126,033,618
(6,806,451)
(6,464,793)
(6,595,894)
(6,444,646)
(6,522,281)
(5,738,570)
(3,201,463)
99,805,223
98,640,991
106,400,273
109,913,908
113,990,984
118,297,181
122,832,155
D
Enrollment
(number
of
Pupils)
3,774
3,486
3,374
3,202
3,073
2,965
26,445
E
Operang
Expenses
/
Pupil
3,557
27,732
30,522
32,577
35,600
38,496
41,427
Adjustments
for
Closure
of
Lewisboro
Elementary
School
F
Current
Operang
Expense
Projecon
G
Less:
Annual
Savings
from
LES
Closure
H
Pro
Forma
Operang
Expenses
I
99,805,223
99,805,223
98,640,991
106,400,273
109,913,908
113,990,984
118,297,181
122,832,155
(1,717,894)
(1,717,894)
(1,717,894)
98,640,991
106,400,273
109,913,908
112,273,090
116,579,287
121,114,261
Pro
Forma
Operang
Expenses
/
Pupil
35,063
37,937
Source:
Katonah-‐Lewisboro
School
District
Expenditure
Forecast,
Presented
to
the
Board
of
Educaon,
December
2012
Savings
from
LES
Closure
sourced
from
School
Closure
Task
Force
Presentaon
on
November
6th,
2013
Note:
Savings
from
LES
Closure
exclude
any
incremental
Transportaon
costs
from
dislocang
current
students
in
Lewisboro
Elementary
school
Closing Lewisboro Elementary School has a minimal impact on lowering
the projected Operating Expenses per Pupil
40,848
19. 19
Additional Transportation Expense
from Closing an Elementary School
Is it reasonable to assume relocating 10% of students adds 10% to the cost of Transportation? If yes, this
will add nearly $500,000 per year in additional Transportation expenses
Source: 2013-2014 Board of Education’s Budget
http://klschooldistrict.org/boe/budget_information
21. 21
Enrollment Projection excluding Existing Home Sales & Statistical
Forecasting LLC Assumptions Used
K
2014-‐2015
2015-‐2016
2016-‐2017
2017-‐2018
2018-‐2019
2019-‐2020
2020-‐2021
2021-‐2022
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1
150
177
174
157
157
157
157
157
Births
219
218
192
176
138
165
152
117
138
136
Birth
Projecon
2012
123
2013
123
2014
123
2015
123
2016
123
2
205
158
186
154
165
165
165
165
3
202
206
159
187
155
166
166
166
203
204
208
161
189
157
168
168
Projected
Enrollment
by
Grade,
excluding
ExisDng
Home
Sales
4
5
6
7
8
227
283
268
247
261
202
229
277
266
246
203
204
224
275
265
207
205
200
222
274
160
209
201
199
221
188
162
205
200
198
156
190
159
204
199
167
158
186
158
203
9
10
299
257
242
261
270
218
195
196
11
268
297
255
241
259
268
217
194
12
276
263
292
251
237
255
263
213
This projection assumes the birth rate drops to
less than 123 births per year, compared to a 10year average of 165 and over 200 births per
year in the early 2000s
PopulaDon
Lewisboro
Katonah
Total
District
Populaon
SE
292
271
259
287
247
233
251
259
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
15
Total
3,202
3,073
2,965
2,825
2,686
2,589
2,506
2,405
Change
(164)
(129)
(108)
(140)
(139)
(97)
(83)
(101)
2010
Census
Data
12,411
1,679
14,090
2010
Student
Enrollment
2021
Student
Enrollment
Decline
Percent
of
total
populaon
If graduating students do not stay in the area, and
new families do not move in, this implies the local
population will decline by nearly 10%
3,773
2,405
(1,368)
9.7%
22. 22
Adjusted Enrollment Projection with Average
Historical Existing Home Resales
K
Pro
Forma
Enrollment
2014-‐2015
165
2015-‐2016
212
2016-‐2017
235
2017-‐2018
249
2018-‐2019
288
2019-‐2020
288
2020-‐2021
288
2021-‐2022
288
1
2
220
193
247
246
296
298
298
298
3
217
241
220
279
286
298
300
300
4
208
229
259
243
310
289
301
303
5
227
207
228
257
242
308
287
299
6
283
229
209
230
260
244
311
290
7
268
277
225
205
226
255
240
305
8
247
266
276
223
204
224
253
238
9
261
246
265
274
222
203
223
252
10
299
257
242
261
270
219
200
220
11
268
297
256
241
260
269
218
198
12
276
263
292
251
237
255
264
214
SE
292
271
259
287
247
233
251
260
Total
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
15
Change
3,252
3,210
3,230
3,266
3,363
3,399
3,449
3,479
(42)
19
37
97
36
50
31
Average
Enrollment
Growth
32
The Adjusted Projection with Average Historical Existing Home Resales may be conservative,
and projects substantially less growth than experienced in the 1990’s
IM
Elem
1993
422
1994
473
1995
516
1996
571
1997
621
1998
562
1999
549
2000
535
Katonah
Elem
Lewisboro
Elem
Meadow
Pond
John
Jay
Middle
School
John
Jay
High
School
336
374
321
682
748
372
412
329
721
772
412
406
357
735
821
429
425
355
744
880
454
469
349
791
934
511
537
404
833
938
518
532
411
903
993
511
533
422
983
1,000
Enrollment can grow very quickly in a period of high existing home sales
Total
2,883
3,079
3,247
3,404
3,618
3,785
3,906
3,984
Change
196
168
157
214
167
121
78
23. 23
Existing Home Sales & Estimates for
Adjusted Projection
ExisDng
Home
Sales
Katonah-‐Lewisboro
Year
Unit
Sales
1993
205
1994
289
1995
286
1996
295
1997
349
1998
345
1999
448
2000
371
2001
319
2002
343
2003
335
2004
352
2005
369
2006
247
2007
277
2008
179
2009
137
2010
170
2011
157
2012
200
Average
1993-‐2007
322
Average
2008
-‐
2011
161
Average
for
20
year
period
284
EsDmated
Sales
of
ExisDng
Single
Family
Homes
Year
Unit
Sales
%
Growth
2014
255
2015
286
12.0%
2016
320
12.0%
2017
359
12.0%
2018
402
12.0%
Cumulave
Homes
Sold,
2008-‐2012
843
Cumulave
Homes
Sold,
2014-‐2018
1,622
Incremental
Exisng
Home
Sales
Source:
NYS
Office
of
Real
Property
Services
Note:
Esmates
and
projecons
are
NOT
from
NYS
Office
of
Real
Property
Services
779
24. 24
Questions for Dr. Grip
• 1) Can we compare projections made in 1995 to the
actual data 10 years later?
• 2) Can we compare projections made in 2005 to actual
data today?
• 3) How was the birth rate of 123 births per year for the
next five years chosen?
• 4) What does the enrollment forecast imply for the future
population of Katonah & Lewisboro?
• 5) How does the demographic distribution of KatonahLewisboro compare to districts studied in previous
enrollment projections?
