Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
TRENDS IN AFFORDABILITY AND DEMAND
KRISTEN C. POWER
NATIONAL DIRECTOR, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
JULY 9TH, 2015
During this session, we will:
• Explore how we got here. What are the
current trends in financial aid?
• Examine the trend...
#BBK12UC
Today’s Aid Applicant
Who’s seeking financial aid?
#BBK12UC
PFS Filer Medians
2013-14 2014-15
Income $88,651 $92,688
Net W...
Today’s Aid Applicant
Who’s seeking financial aid?
#BBK12UC
Quintile US Families PFS Filers, 2014-15
Lowest $0 - $27,794 1...
Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool
Who’s seeking financial aid?
#BBK12UC
10.2
18.7
20.3
17.2
12.5
8.1
6.5
6.4
6.6
12....
#BBK12UC
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CPI--Urban Mean Fam Inc Top 20% Fam Inc
Top 5% Fam Inc Mean Bdg Tuition Mean D...
The Affordability Landscape
#BBK12UC
1.16%
5.70%
Median
Family
Income
Median
Tuition
Avg annual change, 1992 – 2012
Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool
-Why the dramatic demand shift? Income growth fell
dramatically
#BBK12UC
0.00%
1.0...
#BBK12UC
Family Income
Quintiles, 2013
(US Census Bureau)
Sample
Academy
% of Financial
Aid Applicants
Sample
Academy
% of...
Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool
#BBK12UC
What are these new applicants like?
Characteristics of the “New Financial...
The Affordability Conversation
• Key Question: How does our price impact our
ability to enroll the students we want?
• Ext...
The Affordability Landscape
#BBK12UC
Median Tuition
(All Grades)
Full-Pay Income*
$27,500
(middle school)
$171,000
$32,950...
The Affordability Landscape
#BBK12UC
Median Tuition
(All Grades)
Full-Pay Income*
$27,500
(middle school)
$273,000
$32,950...
Where Are the Full Pay Families?
Current top towns (draws)
*Data from NAIS Demographic Center
**Assumption: tuition increa...
The Affordability Conversation
• Zero in on what it means to invest in affordability
– Aspirational: Establish or affirm t...
Questions? Reactions? Thoughts?
#BBK12UC
Presenter Information
Kristen Power
National Director, Business Development
SSS by NAIS
power@nais.org
202-973-9759
#BBK12...
Trends in Affordability and Demand
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Trends in Affordability and Demand

441 views

Published on

Presentation by Kristen C. Power

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Trends in Affordability and Demand

  1. 1. TRENDS IN AFFORDABILITY AND DEMAND KRISTEN C. POWER NATIONAL DIRECTOR, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT JULY 9TH, 2015
  2. 2. During this session, we will: • Explore how we got here. What are the current trends in financial aid? • Examine the trends impacting today’s financial aid landscape. Who is receiving financial aid? • Discuss the affordability landscape. What does it mean to be “affordable?” #BBK12UC
  3. 3. #BBK12UC
  4. 4. Today’s Aid Applicant Who’s seeking financial aid? #BBK12UC PFS Filer Medians 2013-14 2014-15 Income $88,651 $92,688 Net Worth $18,500 $27,475 Home Equity $5,000 $14,893 Family Size 4 4 Children in TCS 2 2 Parent Contribution $8,047 $8,335
  5. 5. Today’s Aid Applicant Who’s seeking financial aid? #BBK12UC Quintile US Families PFS Filers, 2014-15 Lowest $0 - $27,794 10.1% Second $27,795 - $49,788 13.2% Third $49,789 - $76,538 17.0% Fourth $76,539 - $119,001 23.6% Highest $119,002 + 36.2% Top 5% $210,000 and greater 10.5%
  6. 6. Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool Who’s seeking financial aid? #BBK12UC 10.2 18.7 20.3 17.2 12.5 8.1 6.5 6.4 6.6 12.8 14.8 14 12.4 9.9 10.7 18.8 6.4 10.9 12.6 12.4 11.8 10.1 11.8 23.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 0-20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K 80-100K 100-120K 120-150K 150K+ 02-03 09-10 14-15 Range of Total Family Income Source: SSS By NAIS PFS Filer Pool. Reflects total income from all sources, before taxes or allowances, as reported by families on the PFS submitted.
  7. 7. #BBK12UC 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 CPI--Urban Mean Fam Inc Top 20% Fam Inc Top 5% Fam Inc Mean Bdg Tuition Mean Day Tuition Pace of Tuition Change
  8. 8. The Affordability Landscape #BBK12UC 1.16% 5.70% Median Family Income Median Tuition Avg annual change, 1992 – 2012
  9. 9. Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool -Why the dramatic demand shift? Income growth fell dramatically #BBK12UC 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% Lowest Fifth Second Fifth Third Fifth Fourth Fifth Highest Fifth Top 5 Percent 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
  10. 10. #BBK12UC Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau) Sample Academy % of Financial Aid Applicants Sample Academy % of Financial Aid Recipients Sample Academy Avg Grant $0 - $27,794 10.6% 2.6% $26,150 $27,795 - $49788 14.3% 8.6% $23,242 $49,789 - $76,538 14.3% 12.9% $24,030 $76,539 - $119,001 14.7% 23.2% $16,794 Over $119,001 46.1% 52.9% $14,159 Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool -Why the dramatic demand shift? Income growth fell dramatically
  11. 11. Dynamics of the Evolving Applicant Pool #BBK12UC What are these new applicants like? Characteristics of the “New Financial Aid Family” Higher income, higher net worth More assertive, less of a sense of “shame” More entrepreneurial, savvy investors Access to better choices or alternatives More accustomed to having influence over decisions
  12. 12. The Affordability Conversation • Key Question: How does our price impact our ability to enroll the students we want? • External shifts are promising – Income growth and school-age population projections – Next five years projected gains over past five years • Recently, less selective among declining number of applicants, tougher to yield an accepted student? • Slow down in financial aid investment impacting enrollment and net revenue? • Examine relationships between these factors – Population problem, quality of pool problem, or willingness/ability to help problem? #BBK12UC
  13. 13. The Affordability Landscape #BBK12UC Median Tuition (All Grades) Full-Pay Income* $27,500 (middle school) $171,000 $32,950 (high school) $190,000 What’s your Affordability Range? Tuition prices reflect ‘15-’16 tuition at Sample School Assumptions: Family of four, two parents, two children, one in a tuition-charging school, parents age 47, both work, one earns $20K, Maine residents, COLA = 1.000
  14. 14. The Affordability Landscape #BBK12UC Median Tuition (All Grades) Full-Pay Income* $27,500 (middle school) $273,000 $32,950 (high school) $317,000 What’s your Affordability Range? Tuition prices reflect ‘15-’16 tuition at Sample School Assumptions: Family of four, two parents, two children, two in a tuition-charging school, parents age 47, both work, one earns $20K, Maine residents, COLA = 1.000
  15. 15. Where Are the Full Pay Families? Current top towns (draws) *Data from NAIS Demographic Center **Assumption: tuition increase 5% each year #BBK12UC Towns Average household income in ’14* Projected household income in ’19* Projected upper school tuition in ’19** Dover $80,511 $90,853 (12.9%) $40,050 (21.55%) Exeter $105,976 $118,333 (11.7%) $40,050 (21.55%) Kittery $79,947 $89,421 (11.6%) $40,050 (21.55%) Portsmouth $92,398 $103,022 (11.5%) $40,050 (21.55%) York $97,234 $108,205 (11.3%) $40,050 (21.55%)
  16. 16. The Affordability Conversation • Zero in on what it means to invest in affordability – Aspirational: Establish or affirm the primary purpose and goals of the aid investment – Financial: Clarify and diversify sources of financial aid funding – Professional: Ensure staff training for tactical and leadership skills development – Societal: Articulate the community-wide benefits of the investment; understand the impact of external trends and realities • Set benchmarks and measure progress • Leverage the admission and financial aid voice ‘at the table’ • Encourage school-wide ownership and accountability #BBK12UC
  17. 17. Questions? Reactions? Thoughts? #BBK12UC
  18. 18. Presenter Information Kristen Power National Director, Business Development SSS by NAIS power@nais.org 202-973-9759 #BBK12UC

×