In partnership with Exponent Education, a highly regarded education data group, you are invited to a discussion on the recently released state education data – our first look at how children and schools are doing post-pandemic.

1. Learning To Improve:
A First Look at Trends and Bright Spots
in St. Louis School Performance
Post-Pandemic
January 2023
Analysis and visualization by

2. PAGE 2
Welcome & Agenda
1. State and Regional Education Data Analysis
2. Insights from Fast-Improving Systems
3. A New Public Data Tool and Improvement Resource

3. PAGE 3
Zoom Etiquette and Engagement
• Please mute when not speaking to avoid background noise
interruptions.
• We love to see everyone’s beautiful faces! However, please turn off
your camera while tending to any interruptions to avoid distracting
others.
• We’ll pause after the analysis for discussion. Please share any questions
and comments in the chat throughout.

4. PAGE 4
Meet Steve Cartwright
Steve Cartwright
Founder, Exponent Education
• Early research experience at Urban Institute and
DC Public Schools
• Served as Fellow, Strategic Data Project, Harvard
Center for Education Policy Research
• Analytics consultant with schools, systems, and
support orgs across the country

5. PAGE 5
Today’s content
1 Pandemic impact on national and state achievement
2 New evidence on regional achievement
3 Finding and learning from outliers

6. PAGE 6
• Losses in these key
milestones ranged from
about half to nearly all
of the gains made
between 2000 and
2019.
The Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted student
academic achievement across the country
272
276 278
280 282 283 284
281 282 281
273
211
216 217
220 220 220 221 221 221 219
216
2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2022
National Assessment of Educational Progress
Composite Score, 2009-2022, All Students
-8 points
(loss of 86% of
2000 to 2019 gains)
-3 points
(loss of 41% of
2000 to 2019 gains)
Grade 8 Math
Grade 4 Reading
No Child Left Behind:
national emphasis on
assessment and
accountability
Race to the Top: national
emphasis on standards
and teacher evaluation
Current era
interrupted by
global pandemic
• Average achievement
increased significantly
between 2000 and 2013
before stagnating and
declining.
• The pandemic most
affected students’ math
performance, but may
have lingering effects in
reading.
Information on NAEP cut scores for Basic and Proficient performance can be found here.
Grade 8 Proficient
Grade 8 Basic
Grade 4 Basic
Grade 4 Proficient

7. PAGE 7
• Black students in
Missouri were
disproportionately
affected and
experienced some of
the nation’s largest
declines.
In Missouri, average declines were similar to the nation, but
losses for Black students were particularly large
222 221 221
224
220
222 223 223
218
213
203
200 200
204
199 200 202
200 200
186
279
276
281
286
282 283
281 281 281
272
250
247
253
260
254
260
258 256 258
245
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2022
National Assessment of Educational Progress - Missouri
Composite Score, 2009-2022, All Students
-9 points (loss of >400% of
2003 to 2019 gains)
-12 points (loss of >160% of
2003 to 2019 gains)
-5 points (loss of ~110%
greater than 2003 to 2019
loss)
-14 points (loss of ~500% of
2003 to 2019 loss)
Grade 8 Math
Grade 4 Reading
• In grade 4 reading, Black
elementary students in
Missouri lost more
ground than Black
students in nearly every
other state.
• Missouri’s Black middle
school students are now
performing among the
lowest in the country.
All Students
Black Students
All Students
Black Students
-19
point
difference -27
point
difference

8. PAGE 8
Today’s content
1 Pandemic impact on national and state achievement
2 New evidence on regional achievement
3 Finding and learning from outliers

9. PAGE 9
ELA performance continued to decline from 2021 to 2022
statewide and remained relatively flat locally
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
• In the state and county, ELA achievement continued to decline from 2021 to 2022.
+1 +2
• Locally, both charters and SLPS improved modestly (+1% and +2% points, respectively).
• No sector has reached pre-pandemic levels of performance.
-2 -1

10. PAGE 10
• Mirroring national trends, students lost more ground in mathematics than reading.
Math proficiency shows some signs of “rebounding”
statewide and locally, unlike ELA
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
+4 +7 +6 +3
• Some signs of ”rebounding” exist in math: students statewide, in St. Louis county, and across the
city are improving, through no sector is back to pre-pandemic achievement.

11. PAGE 11
• Selective admissions schools perform 6-8x better than open enrollment schools, which enroll the
vast majority of SLPS students.
Aggregate results mask a large inequality of outcomes
between open enrollment and selective admissions schools
6x
larger
8x
larger
• Those selective admissions schools also saw greater rates of improvement from 2021 to 2022.

12. PAGE 12
Twenty years of research identifies key milestones in
children's development that predict meaningful life outcomes
Kindergarten
readiness
3rd grade
reading
proficiency
8th grade
math
proficiency
4th grade
math
proficiency
A local study found that
students entering kindergarten
behind their peers continued to
lag 18 months later (University
of Missouri 2019). Another
study from Ohio found nearly
three in four (74%) students
who tested positively for a
potential problem on a
kindergarten readiness
assessment scored below the
passing promotion score on the
third grade ELA assessment
(Justice et al 2019).
Students who were not
proficient in third grade reading
are four times as likely not to
graduate from high school as
those who were reading
proficiently in third grade. For
children who lived in a high-
poverty neighborhood for at
least a year and were not
reading proficiently in third
grade, they are six times as
likely not to graduate
(Hernandez 2012).
Researchers studying ten-year-
old students’ mathematical
knowledge in the US and the
UK found that their mastery of
fractions was highly predictive
of their overall mathematical
and algebraic knowledge in
high school, five to six years
after initial testing (Siegler et al
2012).
Researchers consider eighth
grade math the “gatekeeper”
to higher math and science
courses and other
postsecondary opportunities
for both college and career
track students (Wang and
Goldsmith 2003).

13. PAGE 13
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
• Nearly two thirds (65%) of SLPS students scored below basic - the lowest of four levels of
performance.
• Both sectors have more than 50% of 3rd grade students at the lowest level of performance.
Milestone: 3rd grade reading proficiency
• The 3rd grade results mirror the overall trend of stagnation statewide with some modest
improvements locally.

14. PAGE 14
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
Milestone: 8th grade math proficiency
• The charter sector also saw a reduction in the percentage of students below basic, but in SLPS
that figure expanded and is now almost three quarters of students.
• “Rebounding” in math is shown not just in proficiency improvements, but also in reductions in
the percentage of students below basic statewide and in the county.

15. PAGE 15
Today’s content
1 Pandemic impact on national and state achievement
2 New evidence on regional achievement
3 Finding and learning from outliers

16. PAGE 16
The schools best helping students recover aren’t just those
increasing proficiency rates
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
• Proficiency rates are
crude measures to use
when evaluating change
over time.
44%
43%
43%
46%
9%
9%
4%
2%
2022
2021
Basic Below Basic Proficient Advanced
42%
42%
37%
37%
16%
15%
5%
5%
2022
2021
Basic Below Basic Proficient Advanced
ELA Performance by Level, 2021 to 2022
Black Students
Missouri Momentum
(formerly Eagle)
No change
+1% pt.
No change
No change
+2% pts.
No change
+1% pt.
-3% pts.
• Movement across all
four performance levels
provides a more
detailed view of change.
• Unlike the state,
Momentum increased
proficiency rates and
decreased the rate of
students below basic.

17. PAGE 17
Fast-recovering schools/systems for Black students include a
mix of districts and charters
• Outlier schools achieve outsized performance index changes with Black students (and serve a
majority of Black students overall).
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
Note: Only schools with <10% of students omitted are shown.
School composition at
least 50% Black students
Compute a performance
index to capture
movement across all
levels of performance

18. Compared to the state, county, and open enrollment SLPS
schools, outliers are improving 2x-15x faster
PAGE 18
Interact with these data on www.theopportunitytrust.org
Note: Only schools with <10% of students omitted are shown.
Kairos
Academies
SDUC Momentum
+5.5 index points
+5.9 index points +8.1 index points
Missouri
+0.4 index points
St. Louis County
+0.4 index points
SLPS non-
selective
+2.7 index points

19. PAGE 19
Outliers present an example of what’s possible citywide when
the right conditions for improvement are in place
15
9
28
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ELA Math
2022 Actual 2027 Projection
St. Louis City Black Student Proficiency Rate Projection
SLPS and Charter
• Current proficiency rates for
Black students citywide are 15%
in ELA and 9% in math.
* +2.6% points in ELA and +6.9% points in math.
**See Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., & Rockoff, J. (2011). New evidence on the long-term impacts of tax credits. IRS white paper.
In an average class of 30 students, this amounts to 1
additional student proficient in ELA and 2 additional
students proficient in math per year.
Statewide all student average
43
39
• If every SLPS school and charter
improved their proficiency rates
for Black students at
Momentum’s rate* for the next
five years, citywide Black
student achievement would
dramatically improve.
• These increased test scores
translate into significant
improvements in college
attendance and early career
earnings.**