Economic Statistics
Kyser Center for Economic Research

Real Estate Educators’ Conference
October 18, 2013

Robert A. Klei...
Outline

•
•
•
•

U.S. Economy
California Economy
Southern California Economy

Forecast & Conclusion

Kyser Center for Eco...
Due to the lapse in government funding, census.gov
sites, services, and all online survey collection
requests will be unav...
Special Notice:
This website is currently not
being updated due to the
suspension of Federal
government services….
U.S. Economy

Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate
12%

Seasonally Adjusted, Aug. 2013: 7.3%

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%

Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09
...
Employment
Fell Faster and
Longer than
in Prior
Recessions...
…and
Recovered
More Slowly!

108

11/1973 - 3/1975
1/1980-7/...
U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth
600

MTM Changes in Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

MTM Job Changes

3 per. Mov. Avg. (MTM Job Cha...
Gross Domestic Product
Annual % Change, Chain-Type (2005) $
Annual

Quarterly

12.0%
10.0%

Averaging ~2% YTY, need 3.5-4%...
Consumer Price Index
% Change from a Year Ago, 100 = 1982-1984
Aug. 2013: All Items +1.5%; Core +1.8%
15.0%
All Items

Cor...
U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales
18

Millions of Vehicles

16
14
12

10

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

8
6
4
2
0
Jan

Feb

Ma...
U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales
YTY % Change – Aug. 2013: +4.6%

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Ja...
Receipts

Outlays

2005

2008

Federal Budget Receipts and
Outlays as % of GDP
26.0
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0

16.0
14.0
12.0
20...
Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Fixed Rate Mort

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Jan-03

Jan-02

Jan-01

J...
U.S. Economic Forecast
2010

2011

2012

2013f

2014f

GDP - Annual %
Chg.

2.4%

1.8%

2.2%

1.8%

2.4%

Nonfarm Jobs Ann...
U.S. Recap
 Labor Market
 Quality of jobs

 Healing Consumer Sector
 Housing continues to improve, Durable goods up
 ...
California Economy

Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Growth Tracks U.S.
US GDP

CA GSP

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%

-5.0%
2007

2008

2009

20...
California Unemployment Rate &
Nonfarm Jobs
4.0%

Unemployment Rate in %

YTY % Change, Nonfarm Jobs

14.0%

Aug. 2013: 14...
Job Trends by Industry – CA
Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY
Construction
Leisure & Hospitality
Wholesale Trade
Administrati...
Job Trends by Industry – CA
Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY
Leisure & Hospitality
Construction
Administrative & Support & W...
California Professional and Business
Services Employment
Aug. 2013 YTY: +55,900, +2.5%

2,700,000

2,200,000

1,700,000

1...
California Private Education &
Health Services Employment
Aug. 2013 YTY: Health Svcs. +26,400, +1.7%; Education: +10,000, ...
California Leisure and
Hospitality Employment
Aug. 2013 YTY: +66,200; +4.1%

1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000...
California Manufacturing Employment
Aug. 2013 YTY: Durable -1,100; -0.1%; Nondurable -100; -0.02%
1,600,000

Durable Goods...
Value of Manufacturing Output –
California
250

$ Billions

Durable Goods

225

Nondurable Goods

200
175
150
125
100
75
5...
California Transportation and
Warehousing Employment
Aug. 2013 YTY: +11,400, +2.3%

540,000
490,000
440,000
390,000
340,00...
Job Trends by California Metro Area
Annual % Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Aug. 2013 – California: +223,900 jobs, +1.5% YTY
San J...
Unemployment Rates by MSA
Bay Area
MSA

Aug. '12 Aug. '13

Chg.

Napa

7.4

5.8

-1.6

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont

7.1
...
Unemployment Rates by MSA
Central Valley
MSA

Aug. '12 Aug. '13

Chg.

Bakersfield-Delano

12.3

10.9

-1.4

Chico

12.1

...
Unemployment Rates by MSA
Central Coast
MSA

Aug. '12 Aug. '13

Chg.

Salinas

9.3

7.8

-1.5

San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles...
Southern
California
Economies

Kyser Center for Economic Research
Employment Rates by MSA
Southern California
MSA

Aug. '12 Aug. '13

Chg.

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana

10.9

10.1

-0...
Local Unemployment Rates
20%

Aug. 2013

LA - 10.2%

OC - 6.2%

IE - 10.4%

20%

May-13

0%
Jan-13

0%
Sep-12

2%
May-12

...
Orange

Inland Empire

2007

2009

1,200

Los Angeles

Thousands

2004

Southern California Professional &
Business Servic...
Southern California Leisure &
Hospitality Employment

2013 YTD

Ventura

2012

2011

San Diego

2010

2009

2008

Inland E...
SoCal Manufacturing Employment
Durable Goods

Nondurable Goods

1,200,000

1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000

2013...
Orange

Inland Empire

2009

300

Los Angeles

Thousands

2007

Southern California Transportation and
Warehousing Employm...
International Trade-Related
Employment in LA 5 County Area
Los Angeles County
Orange County
Inland Empire
Ventura County

...
Annual TEU Throughput
San Pedro Bay Ports
millions of TEUs

August 2013: +2.4% YTD

18

16
15.8

14

14.3

14.2
11.8

14.3...
L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound
Recording Employment
Aug. 2013 YTY: -6,800 jobs, -5.6%

160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000...
Where is the Motion Picture & Sound
Industry Located?
Share of employment in U.S.

LA
34.6%
59.3%

Rest of CA
Rest of US

...
On-Location Film Production
Days by Type
60
50

Production Days,1000s

Feature Films

Television

Commercials

Other

2012...
Home Sales & Median Prices – CA
Existing Detached Homes – September 2013
Price: $428,810 +24.4% YTY - - - Sales: 412,880 -...
Home Sales & Median Prices
Los Angeles County
New and existing, single-family homes and condos
12,000

$600
Sep. 2013: $42...
Home Sales & Median Prices
Orange County
New and existing, single-family homes and condos
(Sales)

(Price, Thousands)

5,0...
Home Sales & Median Prices
Riverside County
New and existing, single-family homes and condos
(Sales)

(Price, Thousands)

...
Home Sales & Median Prices
San Bernardino County
New and existing, single-family homes and condos
(Sales)

(Price, Thousan...
Home Sales & Median Prices
Ventura County
New and existing, single-family homes and condos
(Sales)

(Price, Thousands)

1,...
Unsold Inventory (Months)
Existing Single Family Homes
County/Region
Los Angeles

Aug-12
3.0

Jul-13
2.9

Aug-13
2.9

Oran...
16,000

Southern California Unsold
New Housing
Total Units
Ventura

14,000

San Bernardino

12,000

Riverside

10,000

Ora...
L.A. Five-County Region Apartment
Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates
Vacancy Rates

Rental Rates

9.0%

$1,500

8.0%

$1...
Office Vacancy Rates in
Southern California
26.0

% Vacant, Quarterly Averages

22.0
18.0
14.0
10.0
6.0
2.0
07Q1

08Q1

Lo...
Industrial Vacancy Rates –
Southern California
% Vacant, Quarterly Averages

14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0

Los Angeles

...
Residential Building Permits
Issued in California
250

Permits issued, Thousands

Multi-Family
Single-Family

200
61.5

53...
Residential Building Permits
Issued in Orange County
14.0

Permits Issued, Thousands

Multi-Family
12.0

Single-Family

10...
Residential Building Permits
Issued in Inland Empire
60

Permits Issued, Thousands

Multi-Family
Single-Family

50

9.2

4...
Residential Building Permits
Issued in Ventura County
5.0

Permits Issued, Thousands

Multi-Family

4.5

Single-Family

4....
Residential Building Permits
Issued in San Diego County
20.0

Permits Issued, Thousands

Multi-Family

18.0

Single-Family...
Southern California Construction
Employment
600

Los Angeles

Thousands

Orange

Inland Empire

San Diego

Ventura

500
40...
California Forecast
2013-14

Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Economic Forecast
2010

2011

2012

2013f

2014f

Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg.

-1.1%

1.2%

2.1%

1.7%

1.7%

Un...
California Employment
Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark
15,400

Total Nonfarm Employment

Unemployment Rate

14....
California Personal Income
& Retail Sales
Total Personal Income
2,000

Taxable Retail Sales Growth
15.0%

Billions of $

1...
California Recap
 Faster growth than US
 But more ground to make up

 Silicon Valley/Bay Area Leading
 Driving up hous...
THANK YOU
For Further Insight into the
Local Economy
find our Mid-Year Economic
Forecast & Industry Outlook
online at
www....
Real Estate Economics as presented by Robert Kleinhenz, Ph.D
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Real Estate Economics as presented by Robert Kleinhenz, Ph.D

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Economic Statistics
Kyser Center for Economic Research

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research,
Los Angeles Economic Development Center (LAEDC)

Community College Real Estate Educators’ Conference , Hilton LAX,October 18, 2013

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  • http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmGE 9/12/13
  • GE 9/12/13
  • RAK 7/31/13GE 10/7/13
  • URL: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?blsGE 09/17/13
  • RAK 9/17/13
  • URL: http://www.census.gov/retail/  Create your own time seriesGE 9/13/13
  • RAK_9/18/13
  • RAK 10/15/13
  • RAK4/15/13RAK_9/18/13: CA GSP updated with Sept 2013 CA LTT, US historical updated w July 2013 revisions
  • KRM/KL 7/9/13GE 9/26/13
  • Note: Education Services refers to private education (e.g. USC, DeVry). Public education (K-12, community colleges, CSULB, CSU) are included in Government.RAK_4/11/13CaliforniaLabor Market Information Division, All Data ARE Adjusted for SeasonalityGE 08/19/13GE 9/26/13
  • Note: Education Services refers to private education (e.g. USC, DeVry). Public education (K-12, community colleges, CSULB, CSU) are included in Government.RAK_4/11/13CaliforniaLabor Market Information Division, All Data ARE Adjusted for SeasonalityGE 08/19/13
  • GE 8/19/13GE 9/26/13
  • GE 8/19/13GE 9/26/13
  • GE 9/26/13
  • GE 8/23/139/26/13
  • RAK 10/15/13 Real GSP, Manufacturing (Millions 2005$)Real GSPDurables Manufacturing (Millions 2005$)Real GSPNon-Durables Manufacturing (Millions 2005$) Real GSP rescaled to $ Billions for figurePeaksDurable – new peak in 2012Nondurable – peak in 2008
  • GE 8/19/13GE 9/26/13
  • GE 9/26/13
  • GE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  • http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/metro_08282013.pdfGE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  • GE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  • GE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  • GE 10/7/13
  • GE 10/16/13
  • RAK 2/12/13GE 10/16/13
  • RAK 2/12/13GE 10/16/13
  • RAK 2/15/13GE 10/16/13
  • YTD Text Box Updated 9/17/13 by RAKRAK updated bar chart on 8/26/13 to show latest fcst: 14.340 million TEUs+1.5%
  • GE 08/19/13GE 9/26/13
  • Motion Picture & Sound Recording Industries (50-512000)
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • RAK_10/17/13
  • GE 10/9/13http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/ go to latest “Home Sales and Price Report” then to the Unsold Inventory Table
  • KRM 6/25/13
  • KRM 6/25/13GE 10/8/13
  • GE 10/8/13, RAK Updated table w SD and So Cal 10/17
  • Kl 08/02/13
  • KRM 6/28/13
  • KRM 6/28/13GE 10/8/13 (2013 annualized)
  • KRM 6/28/13
  • KRM 6/28/13
  • KRM 6/28/13
  • RAK 2/12/13
  • GE 7/10/13
  • KRM/KL 7/9/13
  • KRM/KL 7/9/13
  • Real Estate Economics as presented by Robert Kleinhenz, Ph.D

    1. 1. Economic Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research Real Estate Educators’ Conference October 18, 2013 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
    2. 2. Outline • • • • U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy Forecast & Conclusion Kyser Center for Economic Research
    3. 3. Due to the lapse in government funding, census.gov sites, services, and all online survey collection requests will be unavailable until further notice….
    4. 4. Special Notice: This website is currently not being updated due to the suspension of Federal government services….
    5. 5. U.S. Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
    6. 6. U.S. Unemployment Rate 12% Seasonally Adjusted, Aug. 2013: 7.3% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Jan-90 0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    7. 7. Employment Fell Faster and Longer than in Prior Recessions... …and Recovered More Slowly! 108 11/1973 - 3/1975 1/1980-7/1980 106 7/1981-11/1982 7/1990-3/1991 104 3/2001-11/2001 12/2007-6/2009 102 100 98 96 94 92 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
    8. 8. U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth 600 MTM Changes in Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted MTM Job Changes 3 per. Mov. Avg. (MTM Job Changes) 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Recession Job Losses: 8.7 million Since December ’09: +6.8 million Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 -800 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    9. 9. Gross Domestic Product Annual % Change, Chain-Type (2005) $ Annual Quarterly 12.0% 10.0% Averaging ~2% YTY, need 3.5-4% YTY 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 13-Q2 12-Q4 12-Q2 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 -6.0% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research
    10. 10. Consumer Price Index % Change from a Year Ago, 100 = 1982-1984 Aug. 2013: All Items +1.5%; Core +1.8% 15.0% All Items Core 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 -5.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    11. 11. U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales 18 Millions of Vehicles 16 14 12 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kyser Center for Economic Research
    12. 12. U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales YTY % Change – Aug. 2013: +4.6% Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0% Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research
    13. 13. Receipts Outlays 2005 2008 Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays as % of GDP 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 10.0 Source: Office of Management and Budget Kyser Center for Economic Research
    14. 14. Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Fixed Rate Mort Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Fed Funds Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Key Interest Rates 10-Year T-Bond 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Kyser Center for Economic Research
    15. 15. U.S. Economic Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f GDP - Annual % Chg. 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg. -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% Consumer Prices Annual % Chg. 1.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.7% Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    16. 16. U.S. Recap  Labor Market  Quality of jobs  Healing Consumer Sector  Housing continues to improve, Durable goods up  Business Sector  Investment spending interest sensitive  Government  Federal budget cuts = drag; but will cut deficit  State/local fiscal situation improving  International Trade  Trading partner economies improving Kyser Center for Economic Research
    17. 17. California Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
    18. 18. California Growth Tracks U.S. US GDP CA GSP 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; forecasts by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    19. 19. California Unemployment Rate & Nonfarm Jobs 4.0% Unemployment Rate in % YTY % Change, Nonfarm Jobs 14.0% Aug. 2013: 14.7 million jobs, +1.5% YTY; U.S.: +1.7% YTY 2.0% 12.0% 0.0% 10.0% -2.0% 8.0% 8.9% -4.0% 6.0% Nonfarm YTY % Change -6.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate 2013.07 2013.01 2012.07 2012.01 2011.07 2011.01 2010.07 2010.01 2009.07 2009.01 2008.07 2008.01 2007.07 2.0% 2007.01 -8.0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    20. 20. Job Trends by Industry – CA Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY Construction Leisure & Hospitality Wholesale Trade Administrative & Support & Waste… Educational Services Management of Companies &… Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical… Health Care & Social Assistance Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Nondurable Goods 0.0% Durable Goods -0.1% Information -0.4% -0.5% Government -2% -1% 0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    21. 21. Job Trends by Industry – CA Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY Leisure & Hospitality Construction Administrative & Support & Waste… Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical… Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Educational Services Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Management of Companies &… Retail Trade Nondurable Goods -0.1 Durable Goods -1.1 Information -1.8 Government -12.4 -30 -10 66.2 29.1 27.8 26.4 22.5 21.2 11.4 10 7.9 6.7 5.6 2.8 (thousands) 10 30 50 70 90 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    22. 22. California Professional and Business Services Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +55,900, +2.5% 2,700,000 2,200,000 1,700,000 1,200,000 700,000 Jul-13 Jan13 Jul-12 Jan12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan10 Jul-09 Jan09 Jul-08 Jan08 200,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    23. 23. California Private Education & Health Services Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: Health Svcs. +26,400, +1.7%; Education: +10,000, +2.9% 2,500,000 Education Services Health Services 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    24. 24. California Leisure and Hospitality Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +66,200; +4.1% 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 200,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    25. 25. California Manufacturing Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: Durable -1,100; -0.1%; Nondurable -100; -0.02% 1,600,000 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 May-13 Jan-13 Sep-12 May-12 Jan-12 Sep-11 May-11 Jan-11 Sep-10 May-10 Jan-10 Sep-09 May-09 Jan-09 Sep-08 May-08 Jan-08 Sep-07 May-07 Jan-07 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    26. 26. Value of Manufacturing Output – California 250 $ Billions Durable Goods 225 Nondurable Goods 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: BEA, Global Insight Kyser Center for Economic Research
    27. 27. California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +11,400, +2.3% 540,000 490,000 440,000 390,000 340,000 290,000 240,000 190,000 140,000 90,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 40,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    28. 28. Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual % Change in Nonfarm Jobs Aug. 2013 – California: +223,900 jobs, +1.5% YTY San Jose Orange County San Francisco Stockton MSA Ventura Fresno MSA Bakersfield LA Modesto San Diego Oakland Riverside-San… Sacramento 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    29. 29. Unemployment Rates by MSA Bay Area MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Napa 7.4 5.8 -1.6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 7.1 5.4 -1.7 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara 8.7 6.8 -1.9 Santa Rosa-Petaluma 8.6 6.6 -2.0 Vallejo-Fairfield 10.1 8.2 -1.9 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    30. 30. Unemployment Rates by MSA Central Valley MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Bakersfield-Delano 12.3 10.9 -1.4 Chico 12.1 10.0 -2.1 Fresno 14.2 11.9 -2.3 Merced 15.8 13.3 -2.5 Modesto 14.2 11.9 -2.3 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville 10.4 8.5 -1.9 Stockton 14.6 12.2 -2.4 Visalia-Porterville 15.3 13.1 -2.2 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    31. 31. Unemployment Rates by MSA Central Coast MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Salinas 9.3 7.8 -1.5 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles 8.2 6.6 -1.6 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta 7.8 6.3 -1.5 Santa Cruz-Watsonville 9.8 7.9 -1.9 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    32. 32. Southern California Economies Kyser Center for Economic Research
    33. 33. Employment Rates by MSA Southern California MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 10.9 10.1 -0.8 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura 9.5 7.8 -1.7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 12.6 10.4 -2.2 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 9.2 7.4 -1.8 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
    34. 34. Local Unemployment Rates 20% Aug. 2013 LA - 10.2% OC - 6.2% IE - 10.4% 20% May-13 0% Jan-13 0% Sep-12 2% May-12 2% Jan-12 4% Sep-11 4% May-11 6% Jan-11 6% Sep-10 8% May-10 8% Jan-10 10% Sep-09 10% May-09 12% Jan-09 12% Sep-08 14% May-08 14% Jan-08 16% Sep-07 16% May-07 18% Jan-07 18% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    35. 35. Orange Inland Empire 2007 2009 1,200 Los Angeles Thousands 2004 Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment Ventura 1,000 800 600 400 200 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2008 2006 2005 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    36. 36. Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment 2013 YTD Ventura 2012 2011 San Diego 2010 2009 2008 Inland Empire 2007 2006 Orange 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Los Angeles Thousands Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    37. 37. SoCal Manufacturing Employment Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    38. 38. Orange Inland Empire 2009 300 Los Angeles Thousands 2007 Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Ventura 250 200 150 100 50 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    39. 39. International Trade-Related Employment in LA 5 County Area Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County 157,200 7,500 44,500 35,000 Source: LAEDC 2010 Cluster Analysis Project Kyser Center for Economic Research
    40. 40. Annual TEU Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports millions of TEUs August 2013: +2.4% YTD 18 16 15.8 14 14.3 14.2 11.8 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.1 2010 2011 2012 2013F 13.1 12 10 15.7 11.8 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    41. 41. L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: -6,800 jobs, -5.6% 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    42. 42. Where is the Motion Picture & Sound Industry Located? Share of employment in U.S. LA 34.6% 59.3% Rest of CA Rest of US 6.1% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    43. 43. On-Location Film Production Days by Type 60 50 Production Days,1000s Feature Films Television Commercials Other 2012: + 1.7% YTY 2013: +11.9% YTD (Q3) 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 YTD YTD Source: Film LA Kyser Center for Economic Research
    44. 44. Home Sales & Median Prices – CA Existing Detached Homes – September 2013 Price: $428,810 +24.4% YTY - - - Sales: 412,880 -2.6% YTY Sales (000s) 700 Price ($000s) 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: California Association of Realtors 2013.01 2012.01 2011.01 2010.01 2009.01 2008.01 2007.01 2006.01 2005.01 2004.01 2003.01 0
    45. 45. Home Sales & Median Prices Los Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos 12,000 $600 Sep. 2013: $425,000, +25.0% YTY, Sales: 5.0% YTY 10,000 $500 8,000 $400 6,000 $300 4,000 $200 2,000 $100 Home Sales Median Home Price 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
    46. 46. Home Sales & Median Prices Orange County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 5,000 4,500 $700 Sep. 2013: $550,000, +22.2% YTY, Sales: +8.9% YTY $600 4,000 $500 3,500 3,000 $400 2,500 $300 2,000 1,500 $200 1,000 Home Sales 500 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $100 Median Home Price $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
    47. 47. Home Sales & Median Prices Riverside County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 7,000 $450 Sep. 2013: $269,000, +26.6% YTY, Sales: 7.6% YTY 6,000 $400 $350 5,000 $300 4,000 $250 3,000 $200 $150 2,000 $100 1,000 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Home Sales Median Home Price $50 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
    48. 48. Home Sales & Median Prices San Bernardino County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 5,000 4,500 $400 Sep. 2013: $225,000, +32.4% YTY, Sales: 15.4% YTY 4,000 $350 $300 3,500 3,000 $250 2,500 $200 2,000 $150 1,500 $100 1,000 Home Sales Median Home Price 500 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $50 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
    49. 49. Home Sales & Median Prices Ventura County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 1,400 $700 Sep. 2013: $445,000, +18.8% YTY, Sales: +0.2% YTY 1,200 $600 1,000 $500 800 $400 600 $300 400 $200 200 0 Jan-06 Home Sales Median Home Price $100 $0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Kyser Center for Economic Research
    50. 50. Unsold Inventory (Months) Existing Single Family Homes County/Region Los Angeles Aug-12 3.0 Jul-13 2.9 Aug-13 2.9 Orange County 3.6 3.0 3.3 Riverside County 3.2 3.1 3.2 San Bernardino 3.4 3.1 3.0 San Diego 3.7 3.3 3.4 Ventura 4.0 3.5 3.2 Source: CA Association of Realtors Kyser Center for Economic Research
    51. 51. 16,000 Southern California Unsold New Housing Total Units Ventura 14,000 San Bernardino 12,000 Riverside 10,000 Orange Los Angeles 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
    52. 52. L.A. Five-County Region Apartment Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates Vacancy Rates Rental Rates 9.0% $1,500 8.0% $1,450 7.0% 6.0% $1,400 5.0% $1,350 4.0% 3.0% $1,300 2.0% $1,250 1.0% $1,200 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 0.0% Note: For Apartments with > 100 units Source: Real Facts; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
    53. 53. Office Vacancy Rates in Southern California 26.0 % Vacant, Quarterly Averages 22.0 18.0 14.0 10.0 6.0 2.0 07Q1 08Q1 Los Angeles 09Q1 Orange 10Q1 Inland Empire 11Q1 Ventura 12Q1 13Q1 San Diego Source: Grubb and Ellis Research Services; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
    54. 54. Industrial Vacancy Rates – Southern California % Vacant, Quarterly Averages 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3q12 2q12 1q12 4q11 3q11 2q11 1q11 4q10 3q10 2q10 1q10 4q09 3q09 2q09 1q09 4q08 3q08 2q08 1q08 4q07 3q07 0.0 San Diego Source: Grubb and Ellis Research Services Kyser Center for Economic Research
    55. 55. Residential Building Permits Issued in California 250 Permits issued, Thousands Multi-Family Single-Family 200 61.5 53.7 56.9 150 43.9 56.3 100 50 54.5 44.6 123.9 155.3 138.8 151.4 41.0 108.0 31.9 33.5 19.5 33.1 11.0 25.5 25.1 21.8 26.1 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 68.4 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 25.6 66.6 41.0 '13f '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    56. 56. Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County 14.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 12.0 Single-Family 10.0 5.6 8.0 3.7 2.7 6.5 4.9 6.0 5.9 3.1 4.6 4.9 4.0 5.9 6.4 5.6 2.0 2.9 4.4 4.1 1.9 3.7 2.2 0.0 '01 '02 '03 3.8 '04 '05 '06 '07 0.8 1.7 3.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f 2.3 '08 4.3 Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    57. 57. Residential Building Permits Issued in Inland Empire 60 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family Single-Family 50 9.2 40 5.5 7.0 5.8 3.5 30 4.2 20 43.5 45.3 2.5 36.0 33.3 29.8 10 19.5 22.8 2.3 1.2 3.7 16.0 3.3 5.8 0 '00 4.5 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 2.5 4.8 5.1 3.8 4.7 6.8 '07 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f '08 1.5 1.7 11.1 Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    58. 58. Residential Building Permits Issued in Ventura County 5.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 4.5 Single-Family 4.0 3.5 1.9 0.3 3.0 1.3 2.5 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 3.2 2.2 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 '12 '13f 0.3 '08 '09 '10 '11 0.3 0.4 '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    59. 59. Residential Building Permits Issued in San Diego County 20.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 18.0 Single-Family 16.0 14.0 12.0 8.9 6.3 6.0 7.8 7.4 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 5.2 6.0 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.6 4.4 3.9 7.9 4.8 2.0 3.5 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 4.2 6.0 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 0.0 '01 2.9 2.8 3.9 '13f '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    60. 60. Southern California Construction Employment 600 Los Angeles Thousands Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura 500 400 300 200 100 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
    61. 61. California Forecast 2013-14 Kyser Center for Economic Research
    62. 62. California Economic Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg. -1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 12.4% 11.8% 10.5% 9.1% 8.7% Personal Income Annual % Chg. 3.1% 5.2% 4.0% 2.3% 5.0% Taxable Retail Sales % Chg. 5.0% 8.8% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% Housing Permits thousands of units 44.8 47.3 59.6 82.0 121.0 Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    63. 63. California Employment Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark 15,400 Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 14.0% 15,200 12.0% 15,000 14,800 10.0% 14,600 8.0% 14,400 14,200 6.0% 14,000 4.0% 13,800 13,600 2.0% 13,400 13,200 0.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    64. 64. California Personal Income & Retail Sales Total Personal Income 2,000 Taxable Retail Sales Growth 15.0% Billions of $ 1,800 10.0% 1,600 1,400 5.0% 1,200 1,000 0.0% 800 -5.0% 600 400 -10.0% 200 0 -15.0% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f Source: CA Board of Equalization, Department of Commerce; estimate & forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
    65. 65. California Recap  Faster growth than US  But more ground to make up  Silicon Valley/Bay Area Leading  Driving up housing prices  Southern California Mixed  OC in the lead  Housing  Supply-constrained home prices up sharply  Slower gains in 2014 as supply increases  Construction recovering from steep decline Kyser Center for Economic Research
    66. 66. THANK YOU For Further Insight into the Local Economy find our Mid-Year Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook online at www.LAEDC.org/reports • Keep up with economic news and major developments by subscribing to e-EDGE, our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org/eEdge
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