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Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
Gene revolution pingali 2010
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Gene revolution pingali 2010

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This presentation discusses the evolution of developing country agriculture from the "Green Revolution" period to the emerging use of the "Gene Revolution" technologies.

This presentation discusses the evolution of developing country agriculture from the "Green Revolution" period to the emerging use of the "Gene Revolution" technologies.

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  • 1. The Gene Revolution & Smallholder Agriculture Prabhu Pingali Deputy Director Agricultural Development
  • 2. Agriculture is a source of livelihoods for billions, but a huge reservoir of poverty Global extreme poverty 2002, $1.08 a day  2.5 billion people involved in agriculture  800 m smallholders  75% of poor are rural Global and the majority will Urban poor be rural to about 2040 287 mill. South  900 m extreme rural Asia rural poor ($1/day) 407 mill. In Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA rural  5 mill. farming accounts for 2/3 of employment ECA rural East Asia and 5 mill. rural Sub-Saharan 1/3 of GDP LAC rural 218 mill. Africa rural 229 mill.  In South Asia, the rural 27 mill. poverty rate is still approximately 40%
  • 3. The Green Revolution We know progress is possible. Rural poverty in India From the 1960s to the 1980s, 60 Poverty rate, % crop improvements in Asia and Latin America helped: 50 20% • Double food production • Save hundreds of millions of lives • Lay a foundation for growth in GREEN REVOLUTION countries like India and China PERIOD 40 1975 1965 1970 1980 1985 Nearly 20% reduction in poverty in just two decades. May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 3
  • 4. Global Agriculture R&D: record of past success  Production Cereal output in developing countries has grown 2.8 percent annually for three decades  Productivity Yields, not area, were responsible for growth. TFP grew along with yields  Prices Long term declining trend in real food prices 4 May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 4
  • 5. Genetic gains for the major staples have slowed down May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 5
  • 6. Can biotechnology reverse the current productivity trends? • The tools of biotechnology range from tissue culture for the production of disease-free planting materials, molecular markers and double haploids for accelerated plant breeding, to transgenic technologies for the genetic improvement of crops. • Transgenic technologies are used when conventional breeding approaches cannot achieve the specific crop improvements needed by farmers and consumers. May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 6
  • 7. Types of Biotechnology Research and Technology 1. GMOs – Most visible (notorious) aspect – Widespread public interest; concern from some – Most studied aspect of biotechnology; most data 2. Molecular Techniques for Genetic Improvement – Marker Assisted Selection – Cellular biology 3. Vaccines and Diagnostic Tools for Animal agriculture 4. Advances in Basic Science – New avenues of science; new scientific horizon 7
  • 8. Transgenic technologies have had significant impact for a few crops & traits Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2007: Crops created through (Million Hectares) transgenic technologies have generated both special concerns and significant benefits since their initial commercialization a decade ago By 2009, 14 million farmers grow biotech crops in 25 countries, of which 90% are small farmers. Source: Clive James, 2009 May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 8
  • 9. Transgenics by crop, 2007 31% 13% Soybean Maize 5% Cotton Canola Other 51% Other = papaya, squash, alfalfa, tomato, poplar, petunia, sweet pepper, carnation James, 2007 May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 9
  • 10. GMOs have been an effective technology in some cases in developed and developing countries Sustainability problems addressed by Bt cotton • High pesticide loads • Insect resistance to chemical pesticides • Soil erosion under conventional tillage practices • High production costs
  • 11. Further progress in transgenic crops for developing country agriculture is constrained by:  poor public sector R&D capacity;  limited access to private sector innovations;  Underdeveloped bio-safety regulations  Low attention to crops & traits important to the poor Can parallel efforts in genomics and molecular breeding fill the gap? May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 11
  • 12. Molecular Breeding  Advances in molecular biology and information technology offer opportunities for enhancing plant breeding  By using a plant’s genetic code to identify desired traits, Marker Assisted Breeding (MAB) saves time compared to phenotypic selection (PS), more popularly known as conventional breeding.  Though upfront costs associated with marker assisted breeding are much larger compared to phenotypic selection, the precision of MAB over phenotypic selection significantly slashes both breeding time and future costs.  For rice, using MAB saved between three and six years in development time when compared to PS. Financially, this equates to an NPV of USD50–500 million higher, depending on the constraint and country. Source: Generation Challenge Program, Pathways to Impact: Brief No. 3 May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 12
  • 13. Ex-ante estimates of financial benefits of speeding technology development using MAB for some key constraints Rice Cassava Salinity Incremental Cassava mosaic Incremental NPV NPV disease, (million $) (million $) & green mites Philippines 49 Nigeria 817 Bangladesh 499 India 447 Ghana 371 Indonesia 194 Uganda 34 Phosphorus deficiency Indonesia 282 May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 13
  • 14. MAB and developing country agriculture R&D  Weak Public sector infrastructure & conventional breeding capacity  Private sector genomic information not easily accessible  High costs of establishing and operating an MAB program  Low scale economies for small and medium sized countries  Little information for “orphan crops” of importance to the poor May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 14
  • 15. Lessons from the Green Revolution  Focus on staple crops & traits important to the poor  Generate global public goods through International & Regional Research Centers  Develop open access networks for transmitting knowledge and technology  Support national capacity building in plant breeding and plant sciences  Promote policy frameworks for enhancing productivity May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 15
  • 16. Biotech research capacity in developing countries  Tier 1 Countries – India, China, Brazil, etc., are self reliant in marker technologies  Tier 2 Countries – Kenya, Vietnam, Chile, etc., have ability to do adaptive breeding using markers from elsewhere  Tier 3 Countries – low income countries, with limited capacity even for basic breeding May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 16
  • 17. The way forward for the Public Sector  Seek collaboration and partnership with the private sector  Concentrate on areas under-researched by the private sector  Establish IPR and bio-safety regulations  Generate public goods and human resource capacity  Explore new mechanisms for international collaboration May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 17
  • 18. Deal with the age old problems of small farmer constraints to technology access and adoption, even as we look ahead to new technological revolutions. May 6, 2010 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 18

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