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2010 ALLIES Learning Exchange:  Don Drummond - Changing Face of the Canadian Workplace
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2010 ALLIES Learning Exchange: Don Drummond - Changing Face of the Canadian Workplace

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  • 1. THE RISING IMPORTANCE OF IMMIGRANTS Don Drummond, Economic Advisor May 6, 2010
  • 2. TD Economics provides analysis of economic performance and the implications for investors. The analysis covers the globe, with emphasis on Canada, the United States, Europe and Asia. Contact Information Phone: 416 982 8065 Email: td.economics@td.com
  • 3. LABOUR FORCE GROWTH TO SLOW
  • 4. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CANADA HAS BEEN ABYSMAL IN THE LAST HALF DECADE
  • 5. POTENTIAL GDP IS IN LONG RUN DECLINE
  • 6. DIRE PREDICTIONS OF SKILLED LABOUR SHORTAGES
    • NO : demand and supply will adjust
    • But: takes time and money
    • Wages will rise
    • Capital substituted for labour
    • Production shifted to other markets
    • Recruitment from non-traditional pools (more training)
    • Retention of older workers
    • Better use of under-represented workers
    • If all else fails, growth will be slower
  • 7. IMMIGRATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT IMMIGRATION
  • 8. CONCENTRATING IN URBAN CENTERS IMMIGRATION
  • 9. BUT LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES ARE VERY POOR IMMIGRATION
  • 10. MORE IMMIGRANTS WORK PART-TIME INVOLUNTARILY IMMIGRATION
  • 11. …OR ARE HIRED ON A TEMPORARY BASIS IMMIGRATION
  • 12. AND THE EARNINGS GAP HAS BEEN GROWING IMMIGRATION
  • 13. EVEN WORSE FOR THOSE WITH UNIVERSITY DEGREES IMMIGRATION
  • 14. IMPORTANT NON-WAGE BENEFITS ARE LOWER FOR IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION
  • 15. THUS, LOW INCOME RATES AMONG IMMIGRANTS HAVE RISEN IMMIGRATION
  • 16. LOW INCOME OUTCOMES RISING SHARPLY RELATIVE TO CANADIAN-BORN CITIZENS IMMIGRATION
  • 17. MANY IMMIGRANTS WELL EDUCATED IMMIGRATION
  • 18. BUT THEIR SKILLS ARE UNDERUTILIZED IMMIGRATION
  • 19. ESPECIALLY IN SOME HIGH-VALUE PROFESSIONS IMMIGRATION
  • 20. LARGELY A FUNCTION OF HOME COUNTRY IMMIGRATION
  • 21. EARLIER GENERATIONS COULD HOPE TO CLOSE THE GAP, NEW IMMIGRANTS MAY OR MAY NOT IMMIGRATION
  • 22. IMMIGRANT SOURCE COUNTRIES HAVE CHANGED OVER TIME IMMIGRATION
  • 23. LANGUAGE APPEARS TO BE A DOMINANT PROBLEM IMMIGRATION
  • 24. SPECIFICALLY REGARDING ENTRANCE INTO THE WORKFORCE IMMIGRATION
  • 25. EVIDENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NON-OFFICIAL LANGUAGES IMMIGRATION
  • 26. LITERACY PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN ADAPTING TO THE WORKPLACE IMMIGRATION
  • 27. … AND IS STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH PERSONAL INCOME IMMIGRATION
  • 28. INCIDENCE OF LOW INCOME IS HIGHEST AMONG IMMIGRANT CHILDREN IMMIGRATION
  • 29. CHILDREN OF IMMIGRANTS HAVE HIGH EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES IMMIGRATION
  • 30. RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE AUDITOR GENERAL
    • The composition of immigration targets within the “Economic Class” should be clearly defined over a multi-year period to ensure the needs of Canada’s labour market are satisfied
    • In an effort to reduce inventories of Federal Skilled Worker applications, changes were made to the application process without sufficient policy analysis:
      • How was the list of 38 eligible occupations compiled?
      • It is not clear that these changes to the eligibility criteria have made a substantive difference in reducing the number of applications.
  • 31. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
    • Raising employment & incomes among aboriginals and immigrants is a high priority
    • Canadian corporations cannot afford to underutilize the nation’s diverse talent pool
    • Language and literacy programs will be key, specifically for employers
    • Foreign experience/credential recognition is a necessity
  • 32.
    • TD Economics
    • www.td.com/economics
    This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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