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ADVICE for the WISE


   Newsletter –November’11
Contents



Index                        Page No.

Economic Update                   4

Equity Outlook                    8

Debt Outlook                     11
Forex                             13

Commodities                       14

Real Estate                      17




                                        2
From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
October turned out to be a rather positive and optimism                                                   Debt markets have regained some of their shine with the
inducing month - with most positive global news coming in                                                 end in sight for the monetary policy tightening. In light of
along with the adaptation of dovish stance by RBI. The festive                                            the RBI statement on the eve of policy announcement, we
season helped maintain a positive sentiment. While the results                                            believe that long term corporate and quasi-government
of several listed companies disappointed investors, especially                                            debt has now become attractive to invest in. While the
in the infrastructure space, the beginning of the end of                                                  interest rates may yet go up slightly after a brief pause,
monetary policy tightening has rekindled investor's hopes.                                                they are near their peak and investors can start to buy
                                                                                                          long tenor bonds and long term debt mutual funds.
European governments (especially French and German) have
continued to test the limits of global financial system as they                                            Looking back at the year gone by so far, one would notice
dither, argue about and re-re-redraft the comprehensive                                                   the large movements in gold, US Dollar in the positive
rescue plan for the troubled governments of Greece, Portugal,                                             direction while equities in the negative direction. That got
Spain and the pre-emptive action to avoid larger ones like Italy                                          us thinking about whether these assets can be combined
from losing market access. With their self imposed deadline of                                            into a portfolio which is optimized dynamically - with the
the November 3rd G20 summit for reaching a consensus on                                                   intention of minimizing risks for a good return. We have
the rescue plan drawing near, there are positive signs of action                                          designed just the right portfolio for this. This month we
in the major European capitals. We continue to believe that                                               are launching Pi - our multi asset quant fund. The simple
Euro as a currency will survive, Greece may default (though                                               idea of Pi is to make sure that investors' wealth grows
indirectly and partially) while Portugal et al will not. Due to a                                         year on year on the back of appreciation of one or more
disorderly default in a Greece or a failure to reach any decisive                                         of its constituent asset classes i.e. equities, commodities,
plan for rescue of others there might be significant downside                                             gold and currencies.
in equity markets; however the likelihood of this happening is
lower than 10%.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.20”   3
Economic Update - Snapshot of
                                         Key Markets
                                                                                                                                                          Sensex                                                                                                            Nifty
                                                                                 125
                                        As on 31st   Change over   Change over   120
                                                                                 115
                                                                                                                                                          S&P 500                                                                                                           Nikkei 225



                                        Oct 2011     last month    last year     110
                                                                                 105
                                                                                 100

                    BSE Sensex             17705        7.6%          (11.2%)     95
                                                                                  90
                                                                                  85


  Equity            S&P Nifty              5326         7.8%          (11.5%)     80
                                                                                  75


  Markets           S&P 500                1284         13.5%          8.6%
                                                                                   9.30
                    Nikkei 225             8522         (2%)          (7.4%)       8.80
                                                                                   8.30
                                                                                                                                                                                                      10 yr Gsec

                                                                                   7.80
                                                                                   7.30
                                                                                   6.80

                    10-yr G-Sec Yield      8.88%       44 bps         73 bps




                                                                                                                                                                            29/Jan/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30/Jun/11
                                                                                                             29/Oct/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                30/Apr/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   31/Oct/11
                                                                                                                                                                                               28/Feb/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                31/Mar/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        31/Jul/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              31/May/11
                                                                                           29/Sep/10


                                                                                                                                29/Nov/10
                                                                                                                                                        29/Dec/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     31/Aug/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30/Sep/11
Debt Markets        Call Markets           8.60%       30 bps         160 bps    30000
                                                                                 28000
                    Fixed Deposit*         9.25%        0 bps         225 bps    26000
                                                                                 24000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Gold
                                                                                 22000
                                                                                 20000

                    RICI Index             3463         7.9%           6.0%      18000


 Commodity
                    Gold (`/10gm)          27475        5.7%           38.1%
  Markets                                                                              51.00
                                                                                       50.00
                    Crude Oil ($/bbl)      108.4         3%            34%             49.00
                                                                                       48.00
                                                                                       47.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           `/$
                                                                                       46.00
                                                                                       45.00
                                                                                       44.00
                                                                                       43.00
                                                                                       42.00
                                                                                       41.00
                                                                                       40.00
    Forex           Rupee/Dollar           48.9         0.1%          (8.9%)




                                                                                                                         31/Oct/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  30/Apr/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        31/Jul/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               31/Oct/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                    28/Feb/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    31/Mar/11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               31/May/11
                                                                                                                                                                                   31/Jan/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30/Jun/11
                                                                                                       30/Sep/10


                                                                                                                                            30/Nov/10
                                                                                                                                                                31/Dec/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    31/Aug/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 30/Sep/11
  Markets           Yen/Dollar             78.3        (2.2%)          2.7%
* Indicates SBI one-year FD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
Economy Update - Global

            • An annual expansion of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011 has pushed American GDP back
              to pre-recession levels after 15 quarters, according to figures released last week.
   US       • United States’ Consumer Confidence for the month Oct 2011 is at 39.80, which has
              dipped from 46.40 in September 2011.


             • Greece’s debt will be reduced, private banks and insurer are asked to accept 50 percent
               losses on the Greek bond holdings, and the rescue fund EFSF will be strengthened,
               supported also by non-European investors
 Europe      • The CPI rose 0.6% in September increasing the inflation for the year to 5.2% higher from
               an expected estimate of 4.9%. The inflation number is the highest since Sept 2008


            • The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 50.6 in
              October, up from 49.3 in September, signalling a marginal improvement in manufacturing
  Japan       sector operating conditions. A level over 50 also signifies growth while a level below 50
              indicates contraction.
            • The jobless rate slid to 4.1% from 4.3% in Sept’11, and the core food inflation was steady
              at 0.2%.


 Emerging   • China’s HSBC PMI Index came in at 51.0(Oct’11), a solid rebound from the 49.9 recorded in
economies     September to mark the first rise above the 50 level that demarcates contraction from
              expansion since June’11.


                                                                                                           5
Economy Outlook - Domestic

 16.0%          IIP monthly data                                     • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY12 came in at 7.7%, the
 14.0%                                                                 weakest in last 6 quarters. The growth was seen at 7.8% in
 12.0%
 10.0%
                                                                       the last quarter. The economic growth for FY11 was 8.5%
  8.0%                                                                 backed by improved farm output and growth in the
  6.0%                                                                 services sector.
  4.0%
  2.0%                                                               • "While the manufacturing sector grew 7.2 percent in April-
  0.0%                                                                 June from a year earlier, construction was a dark spot in
         Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
         10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
                                                                       the data, rising just 1.2 percent annually, down from 7.7
                                                                       percent a year earlier, as higher interest rates dampened
• IIP figure came in at 4% which was lower than the                    the housing market and big-ticket projects were plagued by
  consensus of 4.4%. A look at the subsectors clearly points           delays in approvals. Mining output grew 1.8 percent,
  to a broad-based slowdown of sub-4% YoY growth across
  sectors. Apart from electricity which continues to grow at           compared with 7.4 percent a year ago while Financing,
  close to double digits (9.5% YoY), manufacturing (4.5%               insurance, real estate and business service grew 9.1 percent
  YoY) and mining (-3.4% YoY) continued to disappoint. On              versus 9.8 percent a year ago.
  the user side, capital goods remained volatile growing at          • A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly
  3.9% YoY in Aug-11.                                                  high inflation would impact demand and credit sensitive
                                                                       sectors making a growth target of 8% difficult to achieve.
• Revisions for July are significant in mining, manufacturing
  and consumer goods sectors. Overall IIP growth was
  revised upwards from 3.3% YoY to 3.8% YoY.                       10.0                            GDP growth
                                                                    9.0
• The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year and
                                                                    8.0
  especially after the introduction of the new series. We
  believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation may          7.0
  not a very efficient way of indicating long term growth.          6.0
  We expect the growth to eventually moderate out though
                                                                    5.0
  high input costs may be a dampener for the
  manufacturing sector.                                             4.0
                                                                          FY10(Q2)   FY10(Q3)   FY10(Q4)   FY11(Q1)   FY11(Q2)   FY11(Q3)   FY11(Q4)   FY12(Q1)


                                                                                                                                                                  6
Economic Outlook - Domestic
            Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs                 • The inflation rate in India was reported at 10.1
                           Bank Credit    Aggregate Deposits
                                                                  percent in Sept’2011 vis-à-vis 9.78% in
 30.0%
                                                                  August‘11. Food inflation, as measured by the
 25.0%
                                                                  Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at 12.21%
 20.0%

 15.0%
                                                                  on the week ending 22nd Oct’11 vis-à-vis at
 10.0%
                                                                  13.55% in the corresponding week of the
  5.0%
                                                                  previous year.

                                                                • With the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we
                                                                  do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
  • The credit grew 23% on a y-o-y basis while deposits           out eventually.
    grew at ~21% in September. Even though RBI has
    been raising interest rates, an increase was seen in
    personal loans.
                                                               10.0%           Wholesale Price Index
  • Due to the successive increase in the cost of              9.5%

    borrowing, a moderation has been seen in the credit        9.0%
    growth and the current estimate for the Fiscal is ~        8.5%
    17-19%.
                                                               8.0%

  • On account of the slowing growth in the economy            7.5%

    and the expected decrease in inflation, a pause is
    expected in the interest rate hikes.
* End of period figures
                                                                                                                     7
Equity Outlook
The last of October saw a sharp rally in risky assets across the world on     statement by the Governor remains has changed from hawkish to dovish
the back of the three –pronged agreement reached by European Union            with growth continuing to remain under pressure. The governor talked
political leadership to stem the contagion from the soverign-debt crisis: A   about ‘De-sesonalized quarter-on-quarter headline and core inflation
voluntary 50% hair cut for private investors in Greek debt which would        measures showing moderation’. According to RBI, inflation will start
help reduce soverign debt in greece, Recapitalizing seventy European          falling in December and will moderate to about 7% by March 2012. The
banks to the extent of 108 billion dollars and increasing the size of         Governor also said that ‘likelihood of a rate action in December mid-
European Union Financial Stabilty Fund (EFSF) to 1.4 trillion dollars which   quarter policy review is relatively low’. RBI has cut the FY12 growth
would provide support to other peripheral Euro area countries.. All the       forecast from 8% to 7.6%. RBI has effectively hiked rates by 525 bps in
three measures combined with further fiscal austerity measures were           last sixteen months and this could result in demand destruction leading
supposed to stem the contagion in European markets.                           to price moderation. Our own sense is that considering the significant
                                                                              slowdown in growth expectation, Rbi will definitely pause if not end the
The Greek Prime minister announced that he will put the bailout package
                                                                              rate tightening cycle now.
given to Greece through a referendum due to lack of political consensus
in Greece. The referendum is expected to happen in the month of               FII’s put in 2500 of fresh money into Indian equity markets which
December and will decide if Greece will accept the terms of the bailout       resulted in markets rallying almost 7%.The rupee after depreciating
package. It is our view that for Euro area to sustain, sooner or later,       almost 13% to 50 levels has bounced slightly and stabilized around 49
European governments will have to move towards some kind of fiscal            mark. We believe this provides a very exciting entry opportunity in equity
union to prevent a full-blown crisis. A move in the opposite direction        markets for dollar investors. The second quarter earnings have come in
could have huge economic and political costs.                                 on expected lines. The earning season has been led by private sector
                                                                              banks, FMCG and automobiles. ITC and HUL came in with excellent
Third quarter GDP data in US came in at 2.5%, above consensus
                                                                              results and both are trading at life time highs. We continue to remain
expectations which eased concerns about US economy moving towards a
                                                                              positive on FMCG names as consumption demand remains quite strong.
double-dip. The dollar Index fell 5% resulting in sharp bounces in equity,
                                                                              PSU banks continue to face pressure on the asset quality with power
commodities and crude oil. In this month’s US Fed meeting, the markets
                                                                              books coming under great pressure. Also, Infra companies continue to
will look for any indication of further quantitative easing although Fed
                                                                              face pressure due to high interest rates and lack of new orders.
Chairman continues to mention that Fed has several tools available at
their disposal to spur growth and they will use it as and when required.       With interest rates peaking out and inflation also expected to start
US consumer demand has been holding up so far and the Thanksgiving            coming down in next few months, we expect that the coming months
holiday buying will give a good indicator of how that demand will move        should see improvement in equity market sentiment. We advise
from here onwards.                                                            investors to stay invested and build a longer term equity portfolio.
RBI hiked repo rates by 25bps on 25th October. The tone of the policy
                                                                                                                                                           8
Sector View

  Sector       Stance                                                      Remarks

                           We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
                           generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare   Over weight   developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
                           pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
                           CRAMS space


                           We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
  FMCG       Over weight
                           growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.


                           The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
                           other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
   E&C         Neutral
                           under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies and utilities over T&D and other
                           infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.

                           Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
                           consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
   BFSI        Neutral
                           good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks
                           will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong

                           The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
 Telecom       Neutral     in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
                           believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
                                                                                                                                    9
                                                                                                                                        9
Sector View

    Sector          Stance                                                   Remarks

                                 Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started
Automobiles         Neutral      coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural
                                 vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.

                                 Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about
   Metals           Neutral      growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once
                                 growth recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.

                                 We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
   Energy         Under weight
                                 economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.


                                 Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side.
   Cement         Under weight
                                 We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.

                                 IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts of
   IT/ITES        Under weight   the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order
                                 inflows might slow down in near term

                                 We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by engineering
Power Utilities   Under weight   services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal prices have been
                                 on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.
Debt Outlook

      9.1             Yield curve                             9.30         10-yr G-sec yield
      9.0
                                                              8.80
      8.9
      8.8                                                     8.30
      8.7
                                                              7.80
      8.6
      8.5
(%)




                                                              7.30
      8.4
      8.3                                                     6.80
             7.1
             0.0
             0.9
             1.8
             2.7
             3.5
             4.4
             5.3
             6.2

             8.0
             8.8
             9.7
            10.6
            11.5
            12.4
            13.3
            14.1
            15.0
            15.9
            16.8
            17.7
            18.5
            19.4
      • The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 44 bps in October to close at 8.88%. This was after
        an increase of 25 bps in the interest rates by RBI.

      • The medium term papers rallied the most in the month and rose 52 bps to close at 8.83%. While the
        G-sec yields increased, the 10 year AAA corporate paper yields remained constant at 9.84%.

      • Though no easing has been seen in the inflation figures, a pause is expected by the RBI and no hike
        may be seen in the immediate future though the central bank would monitor the inflation closely.




                                                                                                              11
Debt Strategy

   Category    Outlook                                    Details
                             We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
                             a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure                 deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
   Debt                      short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
                             consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
                             these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
                             and FMPs as an interesting investment option.


                             Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
                             the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
   Credit                    Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
                             contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
                             current levels attractive.


                            RBI hiked the interest rates for the 13th time since march 2010 by
                            25 Bps, the repo rate now stands at 8.5% and reverse repo at
 Long Tenure                7.5%. RBI has shown an intention to pause further rate hikes.
                            Our stance on long term debt remains neutral believe that it may
    Debt
                            be a good time to start looking for interesting investment
                            opportunities in the medium term.

                                                                                                 12
Forex

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M)                     Trade balance and export-import data
                                                              100                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                  -2000
  5.00%                                                        80                    Export              Import             Trade Balance (mn $)
                                                                                                                                                                  -4000
  4.00%                                                        60                                                                                                 -6000

  3.00%                                                        40                                                                                                 -8000
                                                                                                                                                                  -10000
                                                               20
  2.00%                                                                                                                                                           -12000
                                                                 0                                                                                                -14000
  1.00%
                                                              -20                                                                                                 -16000
  0.00%
 -1.00%     USD         GBP        EURO        YEN           • India’s merchandise exports grew 36.4 per cent in September,
 -2.00%                                                        reaching $24.8 billion from $18.2 bn a year before. However,
 -3.00%                                                        this is a much lower rise than the previous two months. In July,
 -4.00%                                                        exports grew 81.8 per cent; in August, these rose 44.2 per cent
 -5.00%                                                     140000
                                                                                                                               Capital Account Balance
• INR appreciated by about 1% during the month. Also,        90000
  during the month it did witness a low of 50.07, but
  recovered after some stability was sensed in the           40000

  International markets. It closed at 48.87 at the end of
  the month.                                                 -10000
                                                                      FY 10 (Q2)   FY 10 (Q3)   FY 10 (Q4)   FY 11 (Q1)   FY 11 (Q2)   FY 11 (Q3)   FY 11 (Q4)   FY 12 (Q1)



• The Eurozone currencies strengthened in the month as a    • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
  decision was taken to write of 50% of the debts and to      stood at `273133 Cr. at the end of the year. For FY 12, the
                                                              capital account is at `93,621Cr. for Q1.
  strengthen the EFSF bringing some sense of containment
                                                            • We expect factors as higher interest rates to attract more
  of the Eurozone crisis.                                     investments to India. Increased limits for investment by
                                                              FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
                                                              uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
                                                              dampener.
                                                                                                                                                                              13
Commodities

                                                                         30000
            The problems in the Euro Zone is far from over as concerns                                                                   Gold
                                                                         28000
            were raised on the implementation of proposed Greece
                                                                         26000
            bailout package. Further, concerns were raised on Chinese    24000
Precious    Shadow lending and possible slowing or the hard landing in   22000
            China. The fundamental factors largely remained
 Metals     unchanged and Indian market has seen fresh buying
                                                                         20000

                                                                         18000

            demand during the festive Diwali Season despite prices
            staying higher. Expect gold prices to remain firm as any
            correction shall be supported by physical purchases.




                                                                                                                                                                              Crude
            The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized       130.0
                                                                         120.0
            crude oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US     110.0
            and global economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil    100.0

Oil & Gas   prices have topped out in the interim and can only move       90.0
                                                                          80.0
            down from here on. We have seen some firmness in the          70.0

            prices post the announcement of Greece bailout package,       60.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                               31-May-2011
                                                                                               30-Sep-2010




                                                                                                                                                       31-Jan-2011
                                                                                                                                                                     28-Feb-2011

                                                                                                                                                                                   31-Mar-2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             30-Jun-2011
                                                                                 30-Aug-2010




                                                                                                                                         31-Dec-2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                 30-Apr-2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         31-Aug-2011
                                                                                                             31-Oct-2010
                                                                                                                           30-Nov-2010




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           31-Jul-2011
            nevertheless, any such temporary uptick shall not be
            sustained. Expect crude oil prices to be steady.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       14
Product in Focus

Orion 4
  Objective:

  –   To generate superior fixed income payoff (return) while preserving the capital.

  –   To generate appreciation even if the reference index is at (or above) 105% of its initial level.

  Payoff Scenario:

  –   If final level is greater than or equal to strike level, then the structure pays an absolute coupon of 21% (annualized return of
      13.56%).

  –   In case, if the final level is below the strike level, no coupon is paid out, but structure remains capital protected.


           Nifty Digital Growth               Product Specifications                         Payoff                    At Maturity
  Reference Index                       S&P CNX Nifty Index                      If Final Level >= Strike Level Principal * (1 + Coupon)
  Tenor                                 15 / 18 Months                           If Final Level < Strike Level Principal * (1 + 0%)
  Coupon                                21%
  Strike Level                          105% of Initial Level
  Initial Level                         Reference Index as on Trade Date
                                        (1/3)* Σ Reference Index(i); where
  Final Level                            i=13M to 15M


                                                                                                                                           15
Product in Focus

Pi - Multi Asset Quant Portfolio
•   Pi is a multi-asset quantitative portfolio investing in Nifty, Gold, Crude oil and USDINR through liquid futures contracts in NSE and
    MCX and other major exchanges

•   Pi is managed using a well defined quantitative strategy with no human intervention in the execution of the strategy

•   Pi is aimed at generating positive and consistent absolute returns through investing into assets with low correlations

•   Investment horizon for investing in Pi is 24 months and above
                                                           Nifty       Crude Oil       Gold      USD        Pi

                     Average annual rolling returns        14%           19%           25%        2%       38%

                      Worst annual rolling returns         -58%          -54%           5%       -13%       9%

                     Worst calendar quarterreturns         -23%          -61%          -8%        -2%      -2%

•   The average annual rolling returns of Pi are higher than its constituents –driven largely by the dynamic quantitative approach

•   While most asset classes have significantly large negative annual rolling returns; Pi has minimum annual rolling return of 9%
    (positive)

•   The worst calendar quarter for most Nifty and crude oil have been as low as -23% and -61% respectively. For Pi the worst quarter
    has been -2%
                                                                                                                                            16
Real Estate Outlook - I

Asset Classes                              Tier-1*                                                        Tier-II**
                Strong pre-launch sales still keeps the developers far from     The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
                any correction, though sales are down to alsmost 35%            infrastructure development in these cities have made the
                since last quarter, there is no correction visible. The over-   residential development spread across the city limits. On
                supplied locations are stagnant and would be similar for        an average price is still affordable. Key development
                the coming 2 quaters. Entry points anywhere from Rs.            developer are seeing demand of 3BHK and luxury
                3000 - Rs. 6000 per sqft in cities like Pune, NCR,              development but are only doing well if the project size is
 Residential    Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore are still considred            limited to 100-150 units. The trend seems to be favorable
                lucarative by first time home -buyers depending on their        since there is lot of Investor demand comes from smaller
                usage. The retail investors (2nd home buyers) and HNI           cities closer to these Tier-II & III cities. Excellent time to
                investors vary or delaying their decision with expectation      buy anything between Rs. 3000-3500 sqft with known
                of correction. Mumbai stands still tall with prices on their    developers.
                peak in over-supplied market also. Correction again are
                reported only on media and not on ground level.
   Advice       Price point entry is the key. Good time to sell.                Time right to buy, look at 3-8 acre developments only
                Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious expansion      Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike Tier-I
                approach by corporate, this segment has gone through            the price differentiation is double favoring commercial
                correction. Rates per sqft have seen almost 30% down-           since most of them are in CBD areas.
                trend and will be stagnant for the coming 2-3 quarters.
Commercial/IT
                Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is
                the best opportunity for companies looking for long term
                holding of real estate office space.

   Advice       Excellent time to buy smaller office spaces at CBD areas        Space not defined well, depends on independent needs.
                                                                                                                                                 17
Real Estate Outlook - II

       Asset Classes                                      Tier-1*                                                    Tier-II**

                                The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this              Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
                                sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has           are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
                                seen a major transformation on all its business                expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
                                aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for             have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
                                consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety,              always have capital protected due to dearth of
           Retail               less innovation, existence with competition,                   available space..
                                maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have
                                been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share
                                model with a built in MG is how the deals are done



                                Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
                                commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
                                Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
            Land                since it can be used as tangible and most credible
                                pledge against business


           Advice               Hold Land, if Owned                                            Hold Land, if Owned

1.   Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
2.   Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
3.   The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

                                                                                                                                                        18
Why Karvy Private Wealth?

                                       Open Architecture – Widest array of products
   We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
     • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
     • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
                                                       Intensive Research
 We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
 recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
 product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
 truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

                                                   Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
                                               The KPW 3-S Service promise:
 When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
 S Service Promise” :
         • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
         • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
         • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
                                            Pedigreed Senior Management Team
  A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
  private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
                                                                                                                                       19
Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated
companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from
time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades,
if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of
shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All
employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult
their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once
the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.
Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051
(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)
SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236,
NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration
No.: INP000001512”




                                                                                                                                                     20
Bangalore               080-26606126
                                  Chennai                 044-45925923
                                  Delhi                   011-43533941
                                  Goa                     0832-2426870
                                  Gurgaon                 0124-4780222
                                  Hyderabad               040-44507282
                                  Kolkata                 033-40515100
                                  Mumbai                  022-33055000
                                  Noida                   0120-4255337
                                  Pune                    020-30116238

     Email: wealth@karvy.com            SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767         Website: www.karvywealth.com


Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051
                                                                                                             21

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Advice For The Wise - November'2011

  • 1. ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter –November’11
  • 2. Contents Index Page No. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 11 Forex 13 Commodities 14 Real Estate 17 2
  • 3. From the Desk of the CIO… Dear Investor, October turned out to be a rather positive and optimism Debt markets have regained some of their shine with the inducing month - with most positive global news coming in end in sight for the monetary policy tightening. In light of along with the adaptation of dovish stance by RBI. The festive the RBI statement on the eve of policy announcement, we season helped maintain a positive sentiment. While the results believe that long term corporate and quasi-government of several listed companies disappointed investors, especially debt has now become attractive to invest in. While the in the infrastructure space, the beginning of the end of interest rates may yet go up slightly after a brief pause, monetary policy tightening has rekindled investor's hopes. they are near their peak and investors can start to buy long tenor bonds and long term debt mutual funds. European governments (especially French and German) have continued to test the limits of global financial system as they Looking back at the year gone by so far, one would notice dither, argue about and re-re-redraft the comprehensive the large movements in gold, US Dollar in the positive rescue plan for the troubled governments of Greece, Portugal, direction while equities in the negative direction. That got Spain and the pre-emptive action to avoid larger ones like Italy us thinking about whether these assets can be combined from losing market access. With their self imposed deadline of into a portfolio which is optimized dynamically - with the the November 3rd G20 summit for reaching a consensus on intention of minimizing risks for a good return. We have the rescue plan drawing near, there are positive signs of action designed just the right portfolio for this. This month we in the major European capitals. We continue to believe that are launching Pi - our multi asset quant fund. The simple Euro as a currency will survive, Greece may default (though idea of Pi is to make sure that investors' wealth grows indirectly and partially) while Portugal et al will not. Due to a year on year on the back of appreciation of one or more disorderly default in a Greece or a failure to reach any decisive of its constituent asset classes i.e. equities, commodities, plan for rescue of others there might be significant downside gold and currencies. in equity markets; however the likelihood of this happening is lower than 10%. “Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.20” 3
  • 4. Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets Sensex Nifty 125 As on 31st Change over Change over 120 115 S&P 500 Nikkei 225 Oct 2011 last month last year 110 105 100 BSE Sensex 17705 7.6% (11.2%) 95 90 85 Equity S&P Nifty 5326 7.8% (11.5%) 80 75 Markets S&P 500 1284 13.5% 8.6% 9.30 Nikkei 225 8522 (2%) (7.4%) 8.80 8.30 10 yr Gsec 7.80 7.30 6.80 10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.88% 44 bps 73 bps 29/Jan/11 30/Jun/11 29/Oct/10 30/Apr/11 31/Oct/11 28/Feb/11 31/Mar/11 31/Jul/11 31/May/11 29/Sep/10 29/Nov/10 29/Dec/10 31/Aug/11 30/Sep/11 Debt Markets Call Markets 8.60% 30 bps 160 bps 30000 28000 Fixed Deposit* 9.25% 0 bps 225 bps 26000 24000 Gold 22000 20000 RICI Index 3463 7.9% 6.0% 18000 Commodity Gold (`/10gm) 27475 5.7% 38.1% Markets 51.00 50.00 Crude Oil ($/bbl) 108.4 3% 34% 49.00 48.00 47.00 `/$ 46.00 45.00 44.00 43.00 42.00 41.00 40.00 Forex Rupee/Dollar 48.9 0.1% (8.9%) 31/Oct/10 30/Apr/11 31/Jul/11 31/Oct/11 28/Feb/11 31/Mar/11 31/May/11 31/Jan/11 30/Jun/11 30/Sep/10 30/Nov/10 31/Dec/10 31/Aug/11 30/Sep/11 Markets Yen/Dollar 78.3 (2.2%) 2.7% * Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
  • 5. Economy Update - Global • An annual expansion of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011 has pushed American GDP back to pre-recession levels after 15 quarters, according to figures released last week. US • United States’ Consumer Confidence for the month Oct 2011 is at 39.80, which has dipped from 46.40 in September 2011. • Greece’s debt will be reduced, private banks and insurer are asked to accept 50 percent losses on the Greek bond holdings, and the rescue fund EFSF will be strengthened, supported also by non-European investors Europe • The CPI rose 0.6% in September increasing the inflation for the year to 5.2% higher from an expected estimate of 4.9%. The inflation number is the highest since Sept 2008 • The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 50.6 in October, up from 49.3 in September, signalling a marginal improvement in manufacturing Japan sector operating conditions. A level over 50 also signifies growth while a level below 50 indicates contraction. • The jobless rate slid to 4.1% from 4.3% in Sept’11, and the core food inflation was steady at 0.2%. Emerging • China’s HSBC PMI Index came in at 51.0(Oct’11), a solid rebound from the 49.9 recorded in economies September to mark the first rise above the 50 level that demarcates contraction from expansion since June’11. 5
  • 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic 16.0% IIP monthly data • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY12 came in at 7.7%, the 14.0% weakest in last 6 quarters. The growth was seen at 7.8% in 12.0% 10.0% the last quarter. The economic growth for FY11 was 8.5% 8.0% backed by improved farm output and growth in the 6.0% services sector. 4.0% 2.0% • "While the manufacturing sector grew 7.2 percent in April- 0.0% June from a year earlier, construction was a dark spot in Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 the data, rising just 1.2 percent annually, down from 7.7 percent a year earlier, as higher interest rates dampened • IIP figure came in at 4% which was lower than the the housing market and big-ticket projects were plagued by consensus of 4.4%. A look at the subsectors clearly points delays in approvals. Mining output grew 1.8 percent, to a broad-based slowdown of sub-4% YoY growth across sectors. Apart from electricity which continues to grow at compared with 7.4 percent a year ago while Financing, close to double digits (9.5% YoY), manufacturing (4.5% insurance, real estate and business service grew 9.1 percent YoY) and mining (-3.4% YoY) continued to disappoint. On versus 9.8 percent a year ago. the user side, capital goods remained volatile growing at • A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly 3.9% YoY in Aug-11. high inflation would impact demand and credit sensitive sectors making a growth target of 8% difficult to achieve. • Revisions for July are significant in mining, manufacturing and consumer goods sectors. Overall IIP growth was revised upwards from 3.3% YoY to 3.8% YoY. 10.0 GDP growth 9.0 • The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year and 8.0 especially after the introduction of the new series. We believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation may 7.0 not a very efficient way of indicating long term growth. 6.0 We expect the growth to eventually moderate out though 5.0 high input costs may be a dampener for the manufacturing sector. 4.0 FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) 6
  • 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • The inflation rate in India was reported at 10.1 Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits percent in Sept’2011 vis-à-vis 9.78% in 30.0% August‘11. Food inflation, as measured by the 25.0% Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at 12.21% 20.0% 15.0% on the week ending 22nd Oct’11 vis-à-vis at 10.0% 13.55% in the corresponding week of the 5.0% previous year. • With the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate • The credit grew 23% on a y-o-y basis while deposits out eventually. grew at ~21% in September. Even though RBI has been raising interest rates, an increase was seen in personal loans. 10.0% Wholesale Price Index • Due to the successive increase in the cost of 9.5% borrowing, a moderation has been seen in the credit 9.0% growth and the current estimate for the Fiscal is ~ 8.5% 17-19%. 8.0% • On account of the slowing growth in the economy 7.5% and the expected decrease in inflation, a pause is expected in the interest rate hikes. * End of period figures 7
  • 8. Equity Outlook The last of October saw a sharp rally in risky assets across the world on statement by the Governor remains has changed from hawkish to dovish the back of the three –pronged agreement reached by European Union with growth continuing to remain under pressure. The governor talked political leadership to stem the contagion from the soverign-debt crisis: A about ‘De-sesonalized quarter-on-quarter headline and core inflation voluntary 50% hair cut for private investors in Greek debt which would measures showing moderation’. According to RBI, inflation will start help reduce soverign debt in greece, Recapitalizing seventy European falling in December and will moderate to about 7% by March 2012. The banks to the extent of 108 billion dollars and increasing the size of Governor also said that ‘likelihood of a rate action in December mid- European Union Financial Stabilty Fund (EFSF) to 1.4 trillion dollars which quarter policy review is relatively low’. RBI has cut the FY12 growth would provide support to other peripheral Euro area countries.. All the forecast from 8% to 7.6%. RBI has effectively hiked rates by 525 bps in three measures combined with further fiscal austerity measures were last sixteen months and this could result in demand destruction leading supposed to stem the contagion in European markets. to price moderation. Our own sense is that considering the significant slowdown in growth expectation, Rbi will definitely pause if not end the The Greek Prime minister announced that he will put the bailout package rate tightening cycle now. given to Greece through a referendum due to lack of political consensus in Greece. The referendum is expected to happen in the month of FII’s put in 2500 of fresh money into Indian equity markets which December and will decide if Greece will accept the terms of the bailout resulted in markets rallying almost 7%.The rupee after depreciating package. It is our view that for Euro area to sustain, sooner or later, almost 13% to 50 levels has bounced slightly and stabilized around 49 European governments will have to move towards some kind of fiscal mark. We believe this provides a very exciting entry opportunity in equity union to prevent a full-blown crisis. A move in the opposite direction markets for dollar investors. The second quarter earnings have come in could have huge economic and political costs. on expected lines. The earning season has been led by private sector banks, FMCG and automobiles. ITC and HUL came in with excellent Third quarter GDP data in US came in at 2.5%, above consensus results and both are trading at life time highs. We continue to remain expectations which eased concerns about US economy moving towards a positive on FMCG names as consumption demand remains quite strong. double-dip. The dollar Index fell 5% resulting in sharp bounces in equity, PSU banks continue to face pressure on the asset quality with power commodities and crude oil. In this month’s US Fed meeting, the markets books coming under great pressure. Also, Infra companies continue to will look for any indication of further quantitative easing although Fed face pressure due to high interest rates and lack of new orders. Chairman continues to mention that Fed has several tools available at their disposal to spur growth and they will use it as and when required. With interest rates peaking out and inflation also expected to start US consumer demand has been holding up so far and the Thanksgiving coming down in next few months, we expect that the coming months holiday buying will give a good indicator of how that demand will move should see improvement in equity market sentiment. We advise from here onwards. investors to stay invested and build a longer term equity portfolio. RBI hiked repo rates by 25bps on 25th October. The tone of the policy 8
  • 9. Sector View Sector Stance Remarks We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the Healthcare Over weight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the FMCG Over weight growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics E&C Neutral under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies and utilities over T&D and other infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics. Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has BFSI Neutral good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. 9 9
  • 10. Sector View Sector Stance Remarks Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started Automobiles Neutral coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about Metals Neutral growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once growth recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying Energy Under weight economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses. Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side. Cement Under weight We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters. IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts of IT/ITES Under weight the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might slow down in near term We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by engineering Power Utilities Under weight services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.
  • 11. Debt Outlook 9.1 Yield curve 9.30 10-yr G-sec yield 9.0 8.80 8.9 8.8 8.30 8.7 7.80 8.6 8.5 (%) 7.30 8.4 8.3 6.80 7.1 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.3 6.2 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.5 19.4 • The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 44 bps in October to close at 8.88%. This was after an increase of 25 bps in the interest rates by RBI. • The medium term papers rallied the most in the month and rose 52 bps to close at 8.83%. While the G-sec yields increased, the 10 year AAA corporate paper yields remained constant at 9.84%. • Though no easing has been seen in the inflation figures, a pause is expected by the RBI and no hike may be seen in the immediate future though the central bank would monitor the inflation closely. 11
  • 12. Debt Strategy Category Outlook Details We recommend investment into short term bond funds with a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds and FMPs as an interesting investment option. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. RBI hiked the interest rates for the 13th time since march 2010 by 25 Bps, the repo rate now stands at 8.5% and reverse repo at Long Tenure 7.5%. RBI has shown an intention to pause further rate hikes. Our stance on long term debt remains neutral believe that it may Debt be a good time to start looking for interesting investment opportunities in the medium term. 12
  • 13. Forex Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data 100 0 -2000 5.00% 80 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) -4000 4.00% 60 -6000 3.00% 40 -8000 -10000 20 2.00% -12000 0 -14000 1.00% -20 -16000 0.00% -1.00% USD GBP EURO YEN • India’s merchandise exports grew 36.4 per cent in September, -2.00% reaching $24.8 billion from $18.2 bn a year before. However, -3.00% this is a much lower rise than the previous two months. In July, -4.00% exports grew 81.8 per cent; in August, these rose 44.2 per cent -5.00% 140000 Capital Account Balance • INR appreciated by about 1% during the month. Also, 90000 during the month it did witness a low of 50.07, but recovered after some stability was sensed in the 40000 International markets. It closed at 48.87 at the end of the month. -10000 FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) • The Eurozone currencies strengthened in the month as a • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and decision was taken to write of 50% of the debts and to stood at `273133 Cr. at the end of the year. For FY 12, the capital account is at `93,621Cr. for Q1. strengthen the EFSF bringing some sense of containment • We expect factors as higher interest rates to attract more of the Eurozone crisis. investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener. 13
  • 14. Commodities 30000 The problems in the Euro Zone is far from over as concerns Gold 28000 were raised on the implementation of proposed Greece 26000 bailout package. Further, concerns were raised on Chinese 24000 Precious Shadow lending and possible slowing or the hard landing in 22000 China. The fundamental factors largely remained Metals unchanged and Indian market has seen fresh buying 20000 18000 demand during the festive Diwali Season despite prices staying higher. Expect gold prices to remain firm as any correction shall be supported by physical purchases. Crude The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized 130.0 120.0 crude oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US 110.0 and global economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil 100.0 Oil & Gas prices have topped out in the interim and can only move 90.0 80.0 down from here on. We have seen some firmness in the 70.0 prices post the announcement of Greece bailout package, 60.0 31-May-2011 30-Sep-2010 31-Jan-2011 28-Feb-2011 31-Mar-2011 30-Jun-2011 30-Aug-2010 31-Dec-2010 30-Apr-2011 31-Aug-2011 31-Oct-2010 30-Nov-2010 31-Jul-2011 nevertheless, any such temporary uptick shall not be sustained. Expect crude oil prices to be steady. 14
  • 15. Product in Focus Orion 4 Objective: – To generate superior fixed income payoff (return) while preserving the capital. – To generate appreciation even if the reference index is at (or above) 105% of its initial level. Payoff Scenario: – If final level is greater than or equal to strike level, then the structure pays an absolute coupon of 21% (annualized return of 13.56%). – In case, if the final level is below the strike level, no coupon is paid out, but structure remains capital protected. Nifty Digital Growth Product Specifications Payoff At Maturity Reference Index S&P CNX Nifty Index If Final Level >= Strike Level Principal * (1 + Coupon) Tenor 15 / 18 Months If Final Level < Strike Level Principal * (1 + 0%) Coupon 21% Strike Level 105% of Initial Level Initial Level Reference Index as on Trade Date (1/3)* Σ Reference Index(i); where Final Level i=13M to 15M 15
  • 16. Product in Focus Pi - Multi Asset Quant Portfolio • Pi is a multi-asset quantitative portfolio investing in Nifty, Gold, Crude oil and USDINR through liquid futures contracts in NSE and MCX and other major exchanges • Pi is managed using a well defined quantitative strategy with no human intervention in the execution of the strategy • Pi is aimed at generating positive and consistent absolute returns through investing into assets with low correlations • Investment horizon for investing in Pi is 24 months and above Nifty Crude Oil Gold USD Pi Average annual rolling returns 14% 19% 25% 2% 38% Worst annual rolling returns -58% -54% 5% -13% 9% Worst calendar quarterreturns -23% -61% -8% -2% -2% • The average annual rolling returns of Pi are higher than its constituents –driven largely by the dynamic quantitative approach • While most asset classes have significantly large negative annual rolling returns; Pi has minimum annual rolling return of 9% (positive) • The worst calendar quarter for most Nifty and crude oil have been as low as -23% and -61% respectively. For Pi the worst quarter has been -2% 16
  • 17. Real Estate Outlook - I Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II** Strong pre-launch sales still keeps the developers far from The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the any correction, though sales are down to alsmost 35% infrastructure development in these cities have made the since last quarter, there is no correction visible. The over- residential development spread across the city limits. On supplied locations are stagnant and would be similar for an average price is still affordable. Key development the coming 2 quaters. Entry points anywhere from Rs. developer are seeing demand of 3BHK and luxury 3000 - Rs. 6000 per sqft in cities like Pune, NCR, development but are only doing well if the project size is Residential Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore are still considred limited to 100-150 units. The trend seems to be favorable lucarative by first time home -buyers depending on their since there is lot of Investor demand comes from smaller usage. The retail investors (2nd home buyers) and HNI cities closer to these Tier-II & III cities. Excellent time to investors vary or delaying their decision with expectation buy anything between Rs. 3000-3500 sqft with known of correction. Mumbai stands still tall with prices on their developers. peak in over-supplied market also. Correction again are reported only on media and not on ground level. Advice Price point entry is the key. Good time to sell. Time right to buy, look at 3-8 acre developments only Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious expansion Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike Tier-I approach by corporate, this segment has gone through the price differentiation is double favoring commercial correction. Rates per sqft have seen almost 30% down- since most of them are in CBD areas. trend and will be stagnant for the coming 2-3 quarters. Commercial/IT Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is the best opportunity for companies looking for long term holding of real estate office space. Advice Excellent time to buy smaller office spaces at CBD areas Space not defined well, depends on independent needs. 17
  • 18. Real Estate Outlook - II Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II** The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of Retail less innovation, existence with competition, available space.. maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share model with a built in MG is how the deals are done Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent. Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible pledge against business Advice Hold Land, if Owned Hold Land, if Owned 1. Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta 2. Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets 3. The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter 18
  • 19. Why Karvy Private Wealth? Open Architecture – Widest array of products We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class Intensive Research We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio Honest, unbiased advise Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do. The KPW 3-S Service promise: When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3- S Service Promise” : • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products Pedigreed Senior Management Team A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations. 19
  • 20. Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512” 20
  • 21. Bangalore 080-26606126 Chennai 044-45925923 Delhi 011-43533941 Goa 0832-2426870 Gurgaon 0124-4780222 Hyderabad 040-44507282 Kolkata 033-40515100 Mumbai 022-33055000 Noida 0120-4255337 Pune 020-30116238 Email: wealth@karvy.com SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767 Website: www.karvywealth.com Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 21