Setting a Long-term Carbon
Reduction Goal for Minneapolis
Community Environmental Advisory Commission
April 10, 2014
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
4.889
mmtco2e
-14.88%
2012
5.7 mmtco2e
2006
4.882
mmtco2e
-15%
2015
4.0 mmtco2e
-30%
2025
...
Staff direction: “To work with CEAC to develop
a long term carbon emissions reduction goal, to
supplement the City’s short...
Projected Change in Days >90
o
F from 1980 to 2055
Source: Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute, University of W...
Kevin Anderson, Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emissions scenarios for a new world
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing....
Source: 4° Turn Down the Heat, World Bank
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_...
Helps to justify the City’s engagement
and involvement on long-term
planning & development issues
Gives staff latitude to ...
Next Generation Energy Act
Statewide GHG emissions reduction
• 15% by 2015
• 30% by 2025
• 80% by 2050
*all below 2005 lev...
Goal of developing a resilient
region minimizes its
contributions to climate
change and is prepared for the
challenges and...
Hennepin County is committed to
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
by 80 percent by the year 2050
as part of the Cool Count...
37 US cities have articulated 80% plus goals or have demonstrated
significant leadership in trying to achieve significant ...
City Reduction Goal Notes
Seattle 100% by 2050
The Seattle Climate Action Plan, adopted in June 2013, focuses on city
acti...
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MillionsofmetrictonsofCO2e Emissions from community-wide activities in ...
If we…
Make our commercial buildings 75% more efficient (3.75 times CAP goal) and
We make our residential buildings 50% mo...
143
86
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 - 2012 period
average
2015 - 2025 period 2025 - 2050 period
Thousandsofmetri...
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2012
5.7 mmtco2e
2006
4.882
mmtco2e
-15%
2015
4.0 mmtco2e
-30%
2025
Minneapolis Community ...
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2050
1.1 mmtco2e
-80%
4.889
mmtco2e
-14.88%
2012
Baseline:
5.7 mmtco2e
2006
4.882
mmtco2e
...
Sector/Issue Goals
Buildings and
Energy
1. Achieve 15% energy efficiency in residential buildings from the growth baseline...
Emissions
Source
Carbon Reduction
Strategy
Example Initiatives
Commercial &
Residential
Buildings
Achieve net zero emissio...
Emissions
Source
Carbon Reduction
Strategy
Example Initiatives
Waste
Eliminate 100% of solid
waste disposed of via
landfil...
The Emissions Reductions Formula
- -
Total Emissions
 Volume of
gases added to
the atmosphere
Total Sinks
 Volume of
gas...
Household Consumption Inventory, 2010
Housing
30%
Transportation
29%
Goods & Services
25%
Food
15%
Electricity
11%
Nat. Ga...
Recommendations:
Carbon Reduction Goal:
80% by 2050
As part of our goal, continue
to refine methods and
research best prac...
Timeline and Next Steps
February 24:
HECE
Committee
direction to
develop a
recommendation
March 13:
CEAC Climate
Subcommit...
Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis
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Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

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Presentation for the Minneapolis Community Environmental Advisory Commission on creating a long-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal for the City of Minneapolis.

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  • Key message: Goal setting, not a full analysis of what it would take to get there. Should be visionary
  • In 2012 the Minneapolis City Council updated its carbon reduction goals- to reduce community emissions 15 percent by 2015 and 30 percent by 2025, all from a 2006 baseline. The Climate Action Plan serves as a roadmap to reach those goals
  • What those goals mean in terms of carbon reductions: 4.882 mmtco2e by 2015 and 4.0 mmtco2e by 2025Where we’re at in 2012 in our greenhouse gas emissions inventoryNot sure what the 2013 numbers will look like, given the winter we’ve had and Xcel’s electricity portfolio
  • At the February 24th HECE meeting, City Council members directed staff to
  • 2007 reportNewer report talks about the overall global carbon budget, this approach IPCC has established a carbon budget, and to not exceed that budget, we (globally) have to reduce emissions 2.5% each year (source), until our emissions reach zero.  If we did this as a city consistently each year, in 2050 our emissions would be reduced by 67% by 2050 from 2006 levels.
  • 2020 peak – may be impossible to limit temp rise to 2 degrees, or may require 10% emissions reduction per year.Collapse of USSR resulted in 5% reduction per year
  • According to the UN, cities are responsible for 70% of global ghg emissions
  • Cities- part of the problem and the solution
  • Cities- part of the problem and the solution
  • Helps to justify the City’s engagement and involvement on long-term planning & development issuesGives staff latitude to engage on issues that go beyond the 10-year planning horizon
  • January 2013 report
  • Emissions are down 14.9% since 2006.
  • Going beyondKey LeversKey SectorsFederal State CityRegionalCountyDistricts/NeighborhoodsUtilitiesWe would reduce our GHGs by roughly 65%.
  • Examples and strategies from other places
  • Not currently looking at/analyzing this, but it would State level discussions about an updated RESTransportation fuel policies, vehicle efficiency
  • Goal: 80% by 2050As part of our goal, continue to refine methods and look for national/international best practices for measuring emissions from consumption-Getting the Council to think about the need for a better consumption-based GHG emissions inventory method
  • Present to the full CEAC on April 10thHave a letter to present to the Council by April 11thHECE Meeting April 14th
  • Setting a long term carbon reduction goal for minneapolis

    1. 1. Setting a Long-term Carbon Reduction Goal for Minneapolis Community Environmental Advisory Commission April 10, 2014
    2. 2. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 4.889 mmtco2e -14.88% 2012 5.7 mmtco2e 2006 4.882 mmtco2e -15% 2015 4.0 mmtco2e -30% 2025 Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets
    3. 3. Staff direction: “To work with CEAC to develop a long term carbon emissions reduction goal, to supplement the City’s short- and mid-term goals and report back with a recommendation no later than April 14, 2014.”
    4. 4. Projected Change in Days >90 o F from 1980 to 2055 Source: Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute, University of Wisconsin- Madison • Global average temperature increases of more than 2 degrees Celsius pose a significant risk to global ecosystems, and are likely to cause destructive and extreme weather patterns • Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 80% from 2000 levels by 2050 will be necessary to limit temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius • While incremental improvement of established technologies and practices can achieve some progress, 80% reductions in GHG emissions will likely require fundamental systems changes The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 Assessment Report has estimated that:
    5. 5. Kevin Anderson, Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emissions scenarios for a new world http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html
    6. 6. Source: 4° Turn Down the Heat, World Bank http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf
    7. 7. Helps to justify the City’s engagement and involvement on long-term planning & development issues Gives staff latitude to engage on issues that go beyond the 10-year planning horizon Why set a long-term carbon reduction goal? Xcel Energy 2020 Projected Energy Mix (Based on current resource plans and energy forecasts)
    8. 8. Next Generation Energy Act Statewide GHG emissions reduction • 15% by 2015 • 30% by 2025 • 80% by 2050 *all below 2005 levels
    9. 9. Goal of developing a resilient region minimizes its contributions to climate change and is prepared for the challenges and opportunities of a changing climate.
    10. 10. Hennepin County is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by the year 2050 as part of the Cool County Initiative.
    11. 11. 37 US cities have articulated 80% plus goals or have demonstrated significant leadership in trying to achieve significant GHG reductions. New York Los Angeles Chicago Philadelphia San Jose San Francisco Austin Boston Seattle Nashville Portland Atlanta Albuquerque Sacramento Miami Minneapolis New Orleans Cincinnati Chula Vista CA Tacoma Alexandria VA Hayward CA Charleston SC Berkeley CA Richmond CA Boulder CO North Little Rock AK Santa Cruz CA Kirkland WA Olympia WA Blacksburg VA Annapolis MD Falmouth ME Burien WA Galloway NJ Alliance OH Kansas City Sources: O-H Community Partners, Innovation Network for Communities analysis
    12. 12. City Reduction Goal Notes Seattle 100% by 2050 The Seattle Climate Action Plan, adopted in June 2013, focuses on city actions that reduce greenhouse emissions and also support vibrant neighborhoods, economic prosperity, and social equity. Portland 80% by 2050 The City of Portland’s Climate Action Plan recommends actions to achieve a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels). San Francisco 80% by 2050 San Francisco's Climate Action Strategy has identified 35 climate strategies to achieve the goals of zero waste, 50% trips without cars, and 100% renewable energy. Vancouver 80% by 2050 Greenest City 2020 is a bold initiative that will address Vancouver's environmental challenges. Fort Collins 80% by 2050 Rocky Mountain Institute study outlines what it would take to achieve an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 Boston 80% by 2050 Greenovate Boston is a community-driven movement to get all Bostonians involved in reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050, as outlined in the City’s Climate Action Plan. Chicago 80% by 2050 The Chicago CAP outlines 26 actions to reduce greenhouse gases and nine actions to prepare for climate change, helping the City, residents, and businesses reduce greenhouse gases by 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Austin 40% by 2030 As part of their 2013 Climate Action Plan update, Austin held a 2-day community climate workshop where they set a target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Los Angeles 35% by 2030 The City of Los Angeles released its climate action plan in May 2007, which set forth a goal of reducing the City’s greenhouse gas emissions to 35% below 1990 levels by the year 2030, one of the most aggressive goals of any big city in the U.S. at the time New York City 30% by 2030 Report by the Urban Green Council looks at what it would take to achieve a 90% reduction by 2050
    13. 13. - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MillionsofmetrictonsofCO2e Emissions from community-wide activities in Minneapolis Wastewater Solid Waste Air Travel (MSP) On-Road Transportation Natural Gas Consumption Electricity Consumption
    14. 14. If we… Make our commercial buildings 75% more efficient (3.75 times CAP goal) and We make our residential buildings 50% more efficient (3 times CAP goal) and Industrial processes become 30% more efficient and Electricity and natural gas usage stay flat and Xcel achieves an ~80% carbon-free electricity mix and We reduce VMT 10% and the on-road light-duty fleet averages 100 mpg and Carbon-neutral airline fuels are fully deployed and We process all our waste in a carbon-neutral fashion We would reduce our GHGs by roughly 80%.
    15. 15. 143 86 115 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2006 - 2012 period average 2015 - 2025 period 2025 - 2050 period ThousandsofmetrictonsofCO2e Annual reduction required to meet goals
    16. 16. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2012 5.7 mmtco2e 2006 4.882 mmtco2e -15% 2015 4.0 mmtco2e -30% 2025 Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets
    17. 17. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2050 1.1 mmtco2e -80% 4.889 mmtco2e -14.88% 2012 Baseline: 5.7 mmtco2e 2006 4.882 mmtco2e -15% 2015 4.0 mmtco2e -30% 2025 Minneapolis Community GHG Reduction Targets
    18. 18. Sector/Issue Goals Buildings and Energy 1. Achieve 15% energy efficiency in residential buildings from the growth baseline by 2025 2. Achieve 20% energy efficiency in commercial/industrial buildings from the baseline by 2025 3. Increase electricity from local and directly purchased renewables to 10% by 2025 4. Achieve a 1.5% annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from City facilities Transportation and Land Use 1. Reduce automobile vehicle miles traveled (VMT) while improving accessibility, increasing transportation choices and accommodating equitable opportunity and growth 2. Support livable, walkable, bikeable, safe and growing neighborhoods that meet the needs of all residents, provide a range of housing types at all income levels, and protect against displacement of and provide opportunities to current residents, businesses and cultural communities 3. Support the Metropolitan Council's goal of doubling regional transit ridership by 2030, while improving access and livability for lower income households most reliant on public transit 4. Grow jobs and housing to support a growing economy and non-auto transportation modes 5. Increase the share of Minneapolis residents and workers choosing non-auto modes for commuting and other trips 6. Through local action and federal and state legislation, support a transition to cleaner fuels and more efficient vehicles 7. Promote and strengthen green infrastructure and natural systems that can build resilience, sequester or reduce emissions, and improve neighborhoods Waste and Recycling 1. Achieve a zero percent growth rate in the total waste stream from 2010 levels, with a long- term goal of achieving zero waste 2. Recycle 50 percent of the waste stream (commercial and residential) in Minneapolis by 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving zero waste 3. Increase organics collection to 15 percent of the waste stream by 2025 4. Reduce the flow of wastewater from Minneapolis and support efforts to make wastewater treatment more energy efficient 5. Increase awareness of the lifecycle impacts of products to address GHGs occurring outside the community
    19. 19. Emissions Source Carbon Reduction Strategy Example Initiatives Commercial & Residential Buildings Achieve net zero emissions in 100% of new buildings by 2030 • Net Zero building codes • Mandatory building benchmarking • Mandatory building commissioning • Geothermal heat pumps Achieve 30%-50% emissions reductions in 100% of existing buildings • Mandatory building retro-commissioning • Required retrofitting upgrades at transaction • Reduce appliance/equipment energy demand by 30% Industrial Achieve 3%+ annual improvements in energy efficiency of industrial processes, and reduce building energy use by at least 15% • Equipment upgrades • Process/product redesign • Mandatory retro-commissioning • Mandatory retrofitting Transportation Achieve annual net decreases in total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Bike and pedestrian friendly streets • Bike sharing and car sharing • Increased access to transit • Performance based tolling and parking fees • Parking restrictions in high density areas • Employer-based demand management • Transit-Oriented Development Decrease emissions per VMT by 50%-75% • Increased vehicle mileage standards • Alternative low-carbon fuels (electric vehicles; bio-fuels; hybrids; fuel cells)
    20. 20. Emissions Source Carbon Reduction Strategy Example Initiatives Waste Eliminate 100% of solid waste disposed of via landfill or incinerator • Mandatory consumer and commercial recycling • Single or no-stream recycling (100% sorting of all waste) • Construction/demolition recycling & reuse • Organics composting and waste to energy Energy Generation Achieve 80%-90% de-carbonization of the electricity and heating supply • Replace 100% of coal fired electricity generation with natural gas or renewables • Implement on-site energy generation in 100% of eligible structures • Develop district energy/heating/cooling in 100% eligible densely built areas • Implement 50%+ renewable portfolio standards • Implement shared renewable power purchasing programs • Implement carbon capture and sequestration System- Wide Implement efficient land use planning • Increase residential density through urban growth boundaries and promotion of infill development • Ensure that at least 6+ acres of green space are available per 1000 residents Design municipal infrastructure for low carbon performance • Deploy smart grids across 100% of the municipality • Deploy high efficiency transmission lines across 100% of the municipality • Use smart infrastructure for 100% of city needs • Use green infrastructure to reduce the need for gray infrastructure
    21. 21. The Emissions Reductions Formula - - Total Emissions  Volume of gases added to the atmosphere Total Sinks  Volume of gases removed from the atmosphere Offsets  Volume equivalent of purchased credits = GHG Emissions Reduce absolute emissions quantity from a given base year Increase the quantity of GHG absorbed by carbon sinks Purchase carbon offsets to further reduce GHG emissions Total reductions targets may be 80% or more; if reductions reach 100%, carbon neutrality is achieved
    22. 22. Household Consumption Inventory, 2010 Housing 30% Transportation 29% Goods & Services 25% Food 15% Electricity 11% Nat. Gas 9% Furniture 5% Construction 4% Water 3% Car Fuel 22%Air Travel 4% Services 14% Other 7% Clothing 4% Meat 6% Other 3%
    23. 23. Recommendations: Carbon Reduction Goal: 80% by 2050 As part of our goal, continue to refine methods and research best practices for measuring consumption- based emissions
    24. 24. Timeline and Next Steps February 24: HECE Committee direction to develop a recommendation March 13: CEAC Climate Subcommittee Meeting April 10: Presentation to full CEAC with subcommittee recommendation April 11: Have a letter to present to the HECE Committee April 14: Presentation of CEAC recommendation to HECE Meeting

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