Presentation made by Dr. Madhav Karki, Deputy Director General, ICIMOD Outline of the presentation: - Impact of climate change - Key issues and knowledge gaps - New phenomenon of Black Carbon - Need for adaptation and mitigation for Sustainable Development - Conclusion and way forward

1. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Black Carbon, Sustainable
Development and Regional
Climate Change in the
Himalayas:
Dr. Madhav Karki, Deputy
Director General, ICIMOD, Nepal

2. Outline of the presentation
• Impact of climate change
• Key issues and knowledge gaps
• New phenomenon of Black Carbon
• Need for adaptation and mitigation for
Sustainable Development
• Conclusion and way forward

3. Accumulation-mode (0.1 - 1.0 µm)
Black Carbon – a harmful
aerosol to the atmosphere

4. Source and impact of BC in
the Himalaya
• Incomplete combustion of fossil fuels,
wood and other biomass.
• Absorbing sunlight and disturbing
radiation balance and heating up
lower atmosphere and surface
cooling;
• Major agent contributing to global
warming and acceleration of glacier
melting

5. Findings of the UNEP
Scientific Study on BC
• Strong regional warming from
BC and tropospheric O3
• Himalayan regions highly
prone to large positive
radiative forcing by BC,
• Glaciers and seasonal
snowpack areas are likely
impacted from large BC
sources from South and East
Asia.

6. Multiple effects of BC in the
Himalayas
• Physical: Reduced
visibility, deposition on
snow reduces albedo,
melts glaciers faster
• Chemical: formation of
methane, sulphur and
tropospheric ozone
(SLCF)
• Physiological: Pulmonary
Diseases in humans

7. Himalayas: water towers and
ecological buffer of south Asia
• River basins
– Indus
– Ganges
– Brahmaputra
– Irrawaddy
– Salween
– Mekong
– Yangtze
– Yellow
– Tarim
– Amu Darya
Sustaining over 600 million people in the Region
1.3 b including downstream populations in 8 countries

8. Projection of Climate Change
impacts
• All of Asia is likely to warm;
• Himalayas likely to warm 3-4 oC
above baseline by the end of this
century;
• Extreme rainfalls as well as drought
events are likely to increase;
• Increased scenario of disasters,
food insecurity; disease pandemics
likely

9. Expected change in
hydrological regime
• Melt water runoff will
decrease
• Water demand and water
stress will increase
• Extreme events
(floods/droughts) will
increase
• Water conflict likely to
increase at all levels
Upstream Downstream
Upstream Downstream
S
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orY
Human
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y
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m
Rural
Urban

10. Retreat of Trakarding Glacier
& Growth of Tsho Rolpa Lake

11. Water related hazards
 Flash flood
has the highest
mortality rates
Flood
Landslide/Avalanche
Famine
Water rel. Epidemic
Drought
Jonkman,
2005

12. HKH region: hot spots to
climate change
• Climate change impacts likely to
be severe in the Indus and the
Ganges basins
• Contribution of melt water in dry
season river runoff is high;
• High population density makes
the region highly vulnerable (
the Ganges Basin, 401; pop, 0.4
bn; the Indus, 165; pop, 0.2 bn)

13. ICIMOD’s plan to address
BC issue in Himalayas
• Black carbon is short-lived in the
atmosphere, gradual reduction of the
source is a approach
• Awareness raising on its multiple
livelihood and human health benefits
• Use of alternative fuels for cooking, clean
burning stoves; reducing emissions from
smokestacks, coal and vehicles using,
especially diesel fuel; and reducing open
burning of waste and agri. biomass

14. Satellite based Forest Fire
Hotspots
Increase in forest fires in 2009
year with additional 1000 new
fire hotspots compare to the
previous year 2008
MODIS Satellite Image – March 12, 2009

15. Nepal Operational Forest
Fire Information System

16. Detecting Forest Fire Prone
areas
Fire affected parks
1. Chitwan National Park
2. Parsa Wildlife Reserve
3. Shukla Phant Wildlife Reserve
1
2
3
MODIS Temporal analysis between 2008 - 2009

17. Key messages
• Livelihood diversification is a central adaptation
strategy,
• Early warning and decentralized disaster
preparedness can save lives & livelihoods,
• Climate `proofing’ of development projects
necessary to achieve sustainable development
• Climate change adaptation and mitigation (that
has adaptation co-benefits) efforts needed.
• Knowledge solutions and livelihoods benefits
through collaboration and co-operation needed

18. Thank you