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Daily Commodity Report as on Thursday, December 18, 2014
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1
Open High Low Close % Cng OI
Gold 27150 27247 26915 26955 -0.88 8377
Silver 36762 37047 36226 36731 0.01 8451
Alum. 120.6 121 119.3 120.7 -0.08 3651
Copper 408.15 409.9 403.05 407.15 -0.39 9573
Lead 122 122.1 118.7 118.95 -2.54 3707
Nickel 1024.1 1024.1 979.1 992.5 -2.68 4190
Zinc 136.75 136.75 134.15 135.45 -0.81 2533
Crude 3552 3715 3457 3672 2.77 14137
Nat. Gas 234.4 238 231.7 235 0.17 9137
Chana 27150 27247 26915 26955 -0.88 8377
Cardamom 892 921.2 882 917.5 2.58 1776
Turmeric 7920 8000 7816 7962 1.01 21195
Jeera 13240 13320 13035 13125 -0.46 7863
Wheat 1665 1673 1665 1670 0.12 2410
Soyabean 3278 3279 3243 3268 -0.64 126480
Ref. Oil 592.5 596 589.55 595.5 0.60 89430
CPO 416 416.6 413 415.4 -0.36 2680
RMSeed 4068 4197 4056 4184 3.18 26440
Menthol 725.8 731.6 723.2 727 -0.01 6463
Cotton 15850 15880 15780 15800 -0.19 3547
USDINR 63.92 64.10 63.67 63.79 0.04 1314702
EURINR 79.86 80.09 79.35 79.43 -0.40 39672
GBPINR 100.36 100.77 99.96 100.28 0.09 23522
JPYINR 54.81 54.91 54.25 54.50 -0.48 14627
Market Round upPrecious Metals
Gold dropped as Fed signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens.
Base Metal
Silver recovered from lows as investors jumped to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s statement on monetary policy.
Crude jumped on short-covering ahead of expiry and data revealed that U.S. inventories fell last week.
Natural gas traded with the positive note on supportive weather-forecasting models called for blast of cold air to trek
across US.
Ref.Soyaoil settled up on late short covering after prices dropped on oversupply woes following robust imports data
Cereals
Mentha oil edged lower due to ample stocks position in the physical market following increased arrivals from
Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh.Oil and Oilseeds & Others
Soyabean prices dropped on expectation of higher supply of the crop from United States, Brazil and Argentina and
on weak demand.
Energy Copper prices eased pressured by a rise in Chinese output and concerns a sharp drop in the rouble could prompt
Russian producers to churn out more metal.
Zinc prices dropped as China’s manufacturing shrank, and euro zone economic growth was also languishing,
depressing market sentiment.Pulses
Nickel dropped on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates.
Spices
Chana prices rose on account of slow sowing operations and on unfavourable weather condition in major producing
areas.
Turmeric prices seen supported as falling stocks amidst improved domestic and export demand kept supporting the
prices.Currency
Jeera prices dropped as a cooler weather in Gujarat and Rajasthan is expected to be beneficial for the crop growth
weighed on prices.
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 2
MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 27150 SUP-2 26707 Gold trading range for the day is 26707-27371.
HIGH 27247 SUP-1 26831
Gold dropped as Fed signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the
U.S. economy strengthens.
LOW 26915 P.P. 27039
Fed was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of meetings," meaning April of next
year at the earliest.
Gold settled down -0.88% at 26955 after having fallen sharply in the previous session amid renewed doubts to whether the Federal Reserve will signal tighter monetary policy. While Comex Gold hovered near its weakest
level in more than two weeks to trade at 1188.90 today morning after the Fed signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens. Overnight, Gold futures dipped on Wednesday as
investors jumped to the sidelines ahead of the Fed's statement on monetary policy later in the session. The Fed is not seen raising interest rates until 2015, but many investors bet Wednesday's statement will scrap language
suggesting that borrowing costs will remain low for a considerable amount of time. Expectations for more hawkish language supported the greenback, which tends to trade inversely with gold. Elsewhere, investors shrugged
off lackluster inflation data. The Department of Labor reported earlier that the U.S. consumer price index fell 0.3% last month, outpacing estimates for a decline of 0.1% and down from a flat reading in October. Consumer
prices were 1.3% higher on a year-over-year basis, just shy of expectations for a 1.4% reading after a 1.7% increase in October. Meanwhile, Market believe Russia may be gearing up to sell its gold reserves as it handles a
currency crisis that has seen its ruble drop to record lows against the dollar. Demand for physical gold in Asia was lackluster also Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, which last week posted their biggest weekly
rise since mid-July, saw a second consecutive daily outflow on Tuesday, of 1.8 tonnes. Technically market is getting support at 26831 and below same could see a test of 26707 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
27163, a move above could see prices testing 27371.
MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 36762 SUP-2 35847 Silver trading range for the day is 35847-37489.
CLOSE 26955 RES-1 27163
Russia may be gearing up to sell its gold reserves as it handles a currency crisis that has
seen its ruble drop to record lows against the dollar.
% CNG -0.88 RES-2 27371 SELL GOLD FEB @ 27100 SL 27280 TGT 26920-26780-26650.MCX
HIGH 37047 SUP-1 36289
Silver recovered from lows as investors jumped to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s
statement on monetary policy.
LOW 36226 P.P. 36668
The U.S. central bank said it would take a "patient" approach in deciding when to bump
borrowing costs higher.
CLOSE 36731 RES-1 37110
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.59% i.e. 62.56 tonnes to 10544.01 tonnes
from 10606.57 tonnes.
% CNG 0.01 RES-2 37489 SELL SILVER MAR @ 37000 SL 37560 TGT 36560-36100-35850.MCX
Silver settled at 36731 hovered near its weakest level in more than two weeks on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens. The U.S.
central bank said it would take a "patient" approach in deciding when to bump borrowing costs higher. A hike in U.S. interest rates dims the appeal of non-interest bearing assets such as bullion and also pushes the dollar
higher. Asian central bankers are on guard but say they are not overly concerned that the Russian rouble's collapse will trigger a big sell-off of their own currencies, saying their fundamentals are favourable and their currency
defences strong. In economic news from the U.S., a Labor Department report showed consumer price index to have dropped by 0.3 percent in November, after coming in unchanged in October. In economic news from
eurozone, inflation came in line with flash estimate in November at a five-year low, final data from Eurostat showed. Annual inflation came in at 0.3 percent in November, down from 0.4 percent in October. A year ago, the
rate was at 0.9 percent. The November inflation matched flash estimate released on November 28. Investors were also eyeing Russia after the rouble plunged more than 11 percent against the dollar on Tuesday despite a
hefty interest rate hike. Russia's financial crisis initially weighed on stocks on Wednesday, but European shares staged a late recovery following the bounce higher in energy and as new signs of economic stimulus measures
from the ECB lifted shares. Technically market is getting support at 36289 and below same could see a test of 35847 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37110, a move above could see prices testing 37489.
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 3
MCX Crudeoil Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 3552 SUP-2 3357 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3357-3873.
HIGH 3715 SUP-1 3515
Crude jumped on short-covering ahead of expiry and data revealed that U.S. inventories
fell last week.
LOW 3457 P.P. 3615
Crude oil prices have been under pressure after weak projections for global demand
during a supply glut.
Crudeoil settled up 2.77% at 3672 ended higher tracking gain's on Nymex where Crude prices have touched an intraday high of near $59 a barrel after an official weekly oil report from the EIA showed crude oil stockpiles in
the U.S. to have dropped, albeit less than expected. The surge came after weekly oil data showed a big build in crude stockpiles at Cushing. When prices failed to make a new low following the bearish data, speculators raced
to buy up contracts or take profits on short positions, setting off a frenzy of buying that took on its own momentum. The sudden spike on Wednesday caught traders and market by surprise, and many speculated on causes
ranging from the surge in the value of the oversold Russian rouble to the U.S. decision to resume diplomatic relations with Cuba. Crude oil prices have been under pressure after weak projections for global demand during a
supply glut. Crude has plunged to its lowest since 2009 losing more than 40 percent from its summer-time highs. Yesterday, a weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude oil inventories
to have dropped by 0.85 million barrels in the week ended December 12, while analysts expected a decline of 2.36 million barrels. The report showed U.S. crude oil inventories at 379.9 million barrels, end last week. Gasoline
stocks jumped by 5.25 million barrels last week, while makret anticipated a gain of 1.78 million barrels. Inventories of distillate, including heating fuel, fell by 0.21 million barrels last week. Industry data from the American
Petroleum Institute said Tuesday that crude inventories in the U.S. rose 1.9 million barrels last week.
MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 408.2 SUP-2 399.8 Copper trading range for the day is 399.8-413.6.
CLOSE 3672 RES-1 3773
EIA showed U.S. crude oil inventories to have dropped by 0.85 million barrels in the week
ended December 12.
% CNG 2.77 RES-2 3873 BUY CRUDE OIL DEC @ 3580 SL 3520 TGT 3650-3740.MCX
HIGH 409.9 SUP-1 403.5
Copper prices eased pressured by a rise in Chinese output and concerns a sharp drop in
the rouble could prompt Russian producers to churn out more metal.
LOW 403.1 P.P. 406.7
Production of refined copper in China, rose 3.1 percent from the previous month in
November, hitting a record for the fourth straight month.
CLOSE 407.2 RES-1 410.4
A worldwide copper supply surplus of 300,000 tonnes is forecast in 2015 by Australia's
Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics
% CNG -0.39 RES-2 413.6 SELL COPPER @ 408-410 SL ABV 414 TGT 404.20-400.80-397. MCX (STBT)
Copper settled down -0.39% at 407.15 fell on persistent demand concerns in China after China’s HSBC flash manufacturing PMI fell more than expected earlier this week, but regained earlier losses later to end. While
overnight the Fed left interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% after the December policy meeting, and altered its langrage towards the timing of interest rate hike. Janet Yellen said the Fed would wait before beginning its first
rate increases in more than six years, dropping the pledge that the rate will remain low for “a considerable period”. The statement weighed down the US dollar, but Yellen’s remark at the press conference after the meeting
allowed the US dollar index to climb to 89.14. In economic news from the U.S., a Labor Department report showed consumer price index to have dropped by 0.3 percent in November, after coming in unchanged in October.
Market expected the index to edge down by 0.1 percent. In economic news from eurozone, inflation came in line with flash estimate in November at a five-year low, final data from Eurostat showed. Annual inflation came in
at 0.3 percent in November, down from 0.4 percent in October. A year ago, the rate was at 0.9 percent. The November inflation matched flash estimate released on November 28. Russian Finance Ministry announced plans to
start selling its excess foreign-exchange holdings after the collapse of Russia’s ruble. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.44% to settled at 9573 while prices down -
1.6 rupee, now Copper is getting support at 403.5 and below same could see a test of 399.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 410.4, a move above could see prices testing 413.6.
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 4
MCX Zinc Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 136.8 SUP-2 132.9 Zinc trading range for the day is 132.9-138.1.
HIGH 136.8 SUP-1 134.3
Zinc prices dropped as China’s manufacturing shrank, and euro zone economic growth was
also languishing, depressing market sentiment.
LOW 134.2 P.P. 135.5 ILZSG: Zinc demand to outcast supply by the end of 2014
Zinc settled down -0.81% at 135.45 finished mostly lower on views the Fed is more likely to lift interest rates next year after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued a statement at the conclusion of a two-day
meeting removing the pledge to keep borrowing costs near zero for a “considerable time”. Base metals also fell on persistent demand concerns in China after China’s HSBC flash manufacturing PMI fell more than expected
earlier this week. Also China’s manufacturing shrank, and euro zone economic growth was also languishing, depressing market sentiment. LME zinc prices thus dipped to a 1/2-year low of USD 2,111.25/mt. Janet Yellen
expressed her confidence toward US economy, and Russia sold off US treasury to bolster Rupee, allowing crude oil prices to rebound. LME zinc prices rebounded to USD 2,140/mt, and closed at USD 2,145/mt, up USD
4.25/mt or 0.2%. Yesterday the US Federal Reserve left its federal fund rate unchanged at 0~0.25% on Wednesday, but moved away from the statement of keeping low rates for a considerable period of time to a patient
normalization of monetary policy. Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen stated in an ensuing press conference that external economic risks from Russia and the euro zone will have limited impact on the US economy. She added that
the Fed will not initiate the normalization of interest rates in the next two meetings. In response, the US dollar index closed up 1.28% at 89.04 on Wednesday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -11.31% to settled at 2533 while prices down -1.1 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at 134.3 and below same could see a test of 132.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
136.9, a move above could see prices testing 138.1.
MCX Nickel Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 1024.1 SUP-2 953.6 Nickel trading range for the day is 953.6-1043.6.
CLOSE 135.5 RES-1 136.9 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 401 tonnes.
% CNG -0.81 RES-2 138.1 SELL ZINC DEC @ 136 SL 137.20 TGT 135.20-134.MCX
HIGH 1024.1 SUP-1 973.1
Nickel dropped on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest
rates.
LOW 979.1 P.P. 998.6
Nickel’s global surplus shrank to 33,800 metric tons during the first 10 months of the year,
from 123,100 tons over the same period last year
CLOSE 992.5 RES-1 1018.1
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates
from historical lows before the end of April
% CNG -2.68 RES-2 1043.6 SELL NICKEL DEC @ 1000 SL 1018 TGT 988-978.MCX
Nickel settled down -2.68% at 992.50 on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates. Nickel’s global surplus shrank to 33,800 metric tons during the first 10 months of the year, from 123,100
tons over the same period last year, according to data from the International Nickel Study Group released Dec. 16. New-home prices fell in November from the previous month in 67 out of 70 cities tracked by China’s
statistics bureau, according to data. The US Federal Reserve left its federal fund rate unchanged at 0~0.25% on Wednesday, but moved away from the statement of keeping low rates for a considerable period of time to a
patient normalization of monetary policy. Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen stated in an ensuing press conference that external economic risks from Russia and the euro zone will have limited impact on the US economy. US
seasonally adjusted CPI declined 0.3% in November, the biggest monthly fall in nearly six years and higher than a 0.1% drop expected. The index rose 1.3% YoY for the same month, shy of the estimated 1.4% and 1.7% in
October. The nation’s current account deficit expanded from USD 98.5 billion in Q2 to USD 100.3 billion in Q3. LME nickel prices opened at USD 16,000/mt, then rose to the 60-day moving average, touching as high as USD
16,050/mt at one point, but falling back down to as low as USD 15,365/mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 41.79% to settled at 4190 while prices down -27.3 rupee,
now Nickel is getting support at 973.1 and below same could see a test of 953.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1018.1, a move above could see prices testing 1043.6.
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 5
NCDEX Chana Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 3189 SUP-2 3162 Chana trading range for the day is 3162-3282.
HIGH 3249 SUP-1 3195
Chana prices rose on account of slow sowing operations and on unfavourable weather
condition in major producing areas.
LOW 3189 P.P. 3222
India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing at 5.46 million hectares as compared to 6.47 million
hectare previous year.
Chana settled up by 1.38% at 3229 on account of slow sowing operations and on unfavourable weather condition in major producing areas. Further, rising demand in spot markets and holding back of stocks, too supported
chana prices. Fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses too is having a Bullish impact on the prices. Lower production prospects in International markets would make import costlier. India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing at 5.46
million hectares as compared to 6.47 million hectare previous year. Area covered under chana is reported to be 4.09 million hectare as compared to 5.30 million hectare last year which is down 22.7% year on year. Lower
prices on the back of record output and comfortable supplies may force farmers to switch over to other remunerative crops such as mustard and coriander which could yield better returns. Due to this, the government has set
a target of 9.3 million tons for chana output for 2014-15 rabi season, down 5.87% compared to previous year. The 4th government advance estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013-14 at 19.27 million ton, up from
18.34 million ton earlier. Agriculture ministry has estimated chana record output at 9.88 million ton up from 8.83 million ton a year ago. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 88.55 rupee to end at 3200.2 rupee per 100
kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.15% to settled at 85540 while prices up 44 rupee, now Chana is getting support at 3195 and below same could see a test of
3162 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3255, a move above could see prices testing 3282.
NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 7920 SUP-2 7742 Turmeric trading range for the day is 7742-8110.
CLOSE 3229 RES-1 3255 NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 393 tonnes to 39689 tonnes.
% CNG 1.38 RES-2 3282 BUY CHANA JAN @ 3200-3210 SL BELOW 3160 TGT 3238-3265-3290. NCDEX (BTST)
HIGH 8000 SUP-1 7852
Turmeric prices seen supported as falling stocks amidst improved domestic and export
demand kept supporting the prices.
LOW 7816 P.P. 7926
The total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be around 35-37 lakh
bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year.
CLOSE 7962 RES-1 8036 Spot turmeric prices increased at Erode markets on the back of demand from North India.
% CNG 1.01 RES-2 8110 BUY TURMERIC APR @ 7920 SL 7840 TGT 8000-8120-8240.NCDEX
Turmeric settled up by 1.01% at 7962 as falling stocks amidst improved domestic and export demand kept supporting the prices. Demand is expected to pick up further in coming weeks. Falling stocks too are likely to
support the prices. As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. This is mainly due to weak production
forecast in major producing states such as Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu. Sources mentioned that weak rainfall so far in the major growing regions of turmeric in the state such as Nizamabad and Warangal will reduce the
crop to 17-18 lakh bags from 22 lakh bags projected in the last year. Spot turmeric prices increased at Erode markets on the back of demand from North India. Following the receipt of upcountry demand, traders have
started buying turmeric quoting higher price and arrivals also increased to 4,500 bags. Buyers procured 60 per cent to fulfil their committed upcountry orders. Prices may rule around current levels for another few days and if
demand increases or superfine quality turmeric arrives for sale, prices may go up. Hybrid varieties were up Rs. 200 a quintal and the local varieties by Rs. 150. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at
6583.75 rupees dropped -12.65 rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.45% to settled at 21195 while prices up 80 rupee, now Turmeric is getting support at
7852 and below same could see a test of 7742 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 8036, a move above could see prices testing 8110.
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 6
MCX Menthaoil Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 725.8 SUP-2 718.9 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 718.9-735.7.
HIGH 731.6 SUP-1 723.0 Menthaoil spot is at 820/-. Spot market remains unchanged.
LOW 723.2 P.P. 727.3
Mentha oil edged lower due to ample stocks position in the physical market following
increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh.
CLOSE 727.0 RES-1 731.4
Further, sluggish demand from consuming industries in the spot market too added
pressure on prices.
% CNG -0.01 RES-2 735.7 BUY MENTHA OIL DEC @ 720-723.50 SL BELOW 708 TGT 730-738-746. MCX (BTST)
407.15 135.45 992.5 120.7
Mentha oil edged marginally lower due to ample stocks position in the physical market following increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh. Further, sluggish demand from consuming industries in the spot market too
added pressure on prices. But, hopes of rise in winter season export and domestic demand in the coming few weeks till before Christmas, capped some losses in mentha oil prices to some extent. At Sambhal market sources
reported arrivals at 50 Drums(1-drum=180kg), unchanged as compared to previous day’s arrival. At Barabanki market estimated market supply was at 100 Drums(1-drum-180kg), higher by 40 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as
compared to previous day. At Rampur market total arrivals are at 6 Drums(1-drum=180kg), up by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous day’s arrivals. Mentha oil production is expected to fall this year by 30 per cent to
40,000 tonnes from 55,000 tonnes a year ago, with acreage under the commodity declining as farmers sentiment were dampened due to lower prices. Mentha oil arrivals to the spot market, especially from the Chandausi in
Uttar Pradesh, have increased substantially. The resulting fall in prices was capped due to lower production of the commodity this season. Acreage is expected to fall by 20 per cent this year, to 17,500 hectare on the back of
a large carry-over stock from last year, which also had an impact on prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.34% to settled at 6463 while prices down -0.1
rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 723 and below same could see a test of 718.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.4, a move above could see prices testing 735.7.
DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY
COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD
119.0
27163 37110 3773 238.1
CLOSE 26955 36731 3672 235
410.4 136.9 1018.1 121.3
135.5 998.6 120.3
RESISTANCE
27495 37931 4031 244.4 417.3 139.5 1063.1 123.0
27371 37489 3873 241.2 413.6 138.1 1043.6 122.0
P. POINT 27039 36668 3615 234.9 406.7
26499 35468 3257 225.5 396.6
SUPPORT 26707 35847 3357 228.6 399.8 953.6 118.6
26831 36289 3515 231.8 403.5
OI 8377 8451 14137 9137 9573 2533 4190 3651
131.7 928.1 117.9
134.3 973.1 119.6
132.9
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 7
Positive Positive
SPREAD 229 661 58.00 3.00 4.10 0.75 6.20
TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive
1.00
124.5
123.3
121.1
114.3
116.5
117.7
3707
119.9
1.2
2:30pm EUR 105.6 104.7
Day 1 EUR 0 0
Tentative EUR 0 1.84|2.2
7:00pm USD 297K 294K
8:15pm USD 57.1 56.2
8:30pm USD 26.3 40.8
8:30pm USD 0.006 0.009
9:00pm USD 0 -51B
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Natural Gas Storage
0
0
0
0
0
PREV
The Bank of England said the Co-operative Bank, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland
should strengthen their capital position. According to the 2014 stress test, five out of the eight
participating banks did not reveal capital inadequacies at the end of 2013. But only Co-operative Bank
was required to submit a revised capital plan given the continuing improvements to banks' resilience
over the course of 2014 and concrete plans to build capital further going forward, the central bank
said. The Financial Policy Committee of the BoE said only one bank fell below the 4.5 percent
threshold at the trough of the stress scenario. Overall, the FPC judged that the resilience of the
system had improved significantly since the capital shortfall exercise in 2013. The bank concluded
that no system-wide, macroprudential actions on bank capital are needed given the results of tests,
and the banking system is on the transition path to meet higher standards of loss absorbing capacity.
Thu
German Ifo Business Climate
EU Economic Summit
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
Unemployment Claims
Flash Services PMI
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
CB Leading Index m/m
NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP
China's production of refined copper rose 3.1 percent from the previous month in November, hitting a
record for the fourth straight month as high processing fees prompted smelters to produce more
metal. Refined copper output reached 755,492 tonnes in November, up from the previous record at
732,746 tonnes in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Higher rates at new
smelting capacity, expected to be 600,000 tonnes this year, have gradually pushed up copper
production in the second half, industry sources said. Plentiful supply of raw material, concentrate, and
higher margins have also driven strong metal production. A 100,000-tonne-a-year copper smelter in
China's northeastern Liaoning province started production last month after staying idle for about 5
years, the sources said. Refined copper production increased 11.5 percent on-year to 7.17 million
tonnes in the first 11 months, the data showed. The November output was higher than about 630,000
tonnes estimated by state-backed research firm Antaike, although the estimated output was also a
record, Yang Changhua, its senior analyst said. He added that Antaike's estimate had taken out some
production double-counted by provinces. Production of refined zinc rose 6.2 percent on the month at
549,954 tonnes in November, hitting a record for the second straight month. Abundant supply of raw
material, zinc concentrate, and strong metal prices prompted smelters to boost output.
French private activity contracted at a slower rate in December as the corresponding index reached a
four-month high, flash survey data from Markit Economics showed. The composite output index rose
to 49.1 in December from 47.9 in November. A reading below 50 signals contraction in activity. The
services Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, also climbed to a four-month high of 49.8 from 47.9 in
November. The index was forecast to rise to 48.5. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.9
in December from 48.4 a month ago, also logging a four-month low. The reading was forecast to rise
to 48.6. New work in the private sector rose for the first time in four months as new business in the
service sector improved for the first time since August. However, new orders in the manufacturing
sector continued to fall, though at the slowest rate since June. Private sector employment dropped for
the fourteenth consecutive month. However, the rate of decline slowed to a six-month low.
Agricultural commodities are likely to remain volatile globally in 2015, with strong buying support on
lows to keep prices elevated in the first half. However, global oversupply could pull these down in the
second half. A Rabobank study says the fundamentals in agri commodities appear more balanced
through 2015, resulting in narrower trading ranges for many commodities versus 2014. On the
demand side, growth has slowed in recent years. However, lower price levels should now encourage
consumption growth, which will support prices. However, a strengthening dollar, uncertain Chinese
demand growth, slowing biofuel demand and weakness in crude oil prices might spoil the party. Prices
of agri commodities declined by up to 20 per cent in 2014 due to huge oversupply on stagnant global
demand. Delay in implementation of a biofuel policy in Malaysia pulled down the average price of
crude palm oil (CPO) to an estimated 2,140 ringgit in the December quarter from 2,693 ringgit in the
March quarter. Rabobank forecasts the CPO price will recover to average 2,300 ringgit in the June ’15
quarter, before falling to 2,230 ringgit in the December quarter. On the supply side, bumper harvests
in 2014 have improved world supplies of most grains and oilseeds, resulting in lower and less volatile
price levels as compared to previous years.
World coffee production in the ongoing 2014-15 crop year is set to decline 2.9 per cent to 141 million
bags, compared to 145.2 million bags in 2013-14. The drop is attributed to drought in Brazil, the
world’s largest producer of beans. According to International Coffee Organization (ICO), apex body of
producing countries, the ongoing recovery in Colombia, with improved management of coffee leaf rust
in Central America, is expected to mitigate the loss of Arabica. In terms of Robusta, production in
Vietnam is provisionally expected to remain strong, while a significant drop is anticipated in
Indonesia, given the recent low export volumes. Production of Arabica in Brazil will be six million bags
lower in 2014-15, compared to 2013-14, ICO said in its latest report quoting Brazilian crop
forecasting agency, Conab. In India, the sixth largest producer in the world, the Coffee Board’s post-
blossom forecast has pegged bean production to grow 13.1 per cent to 344,500 tonnes, compared to
the final production of 304,500 tonnes in 2013-14. Meanwhile, prices slipped back in November, as
widespread rains in Brazil curtailed any further price rise. All group indicators decreased, although this
was less noticeable in the case of Robusta, ICO said. The monthly average of the ICO composite
indicator settled on 162.17 US cents per lb (pound), 6.2 per cent lower than the October average but
higher than that of September
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 8
Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 9

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Achiievers equities commodity report

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report as on Thursday, December 18, 2014 Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1
  • 2. Open High Low Close % Cng OI Gold 27150 27247 26915 26955 -0.88 8377 Silver 36762 37047 36226 36731 0.01 8451 Alum. 120.6 121 119.3 120.7 -0.08 3651 Copper 408.15 409.9 403.05 407.15 -0.39 9573 Lead 122 122.1 118.7 118.95 -2.54 3707 Nickel 1024.1 1024.1 979.1 992.5 -2.68 4190 Zinc 136.75 136.75 134.15 135.45 -0.81 2533 Crude 3552 3715 3457 3672 2.77 14137 Nat. Gas 234.4 238 231.7 235 0.17 9137 Chana 27150 27247 26915 26955 -0.88 8377 Cardamom 892 921.2 882 917.5 2.58 1776 Turmeric 7920 8000 7816 7962 1.01 21195 Jeera 13240 13320 13035 13125 -0.46 7863 Wheat 1665 1673 1665 1670 0.12 2410 Soyabean 3278 3279 3243 3268 -0.64 126480 Ref. Oil 592.5 596 589.55 595.5 0.60 89430 CPO 416 416.6 413 415.4 -0.36 2680 RMSeed 4068 4197 4056 4184 3.18 26440 Menthol 725.8 731.6 723.2 727 -0.01 6463 Cotton 15850 15880 15780 15800 -0.19 3547 USDINR 63.92 64.10 63.67 63.79 0.04 1314702 EURINR 79.86 80.09 79.35 79.43 -0.40 39672 GBPINR 100.36 100.77 99.96 100.28 0.09 23522 JPYINR 54.81 54.91 54.25 54.50 -0.48 14627 Market Round upPrecious Metals Gold dropped as Fed signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens. Base Metal Silver recovered from lows as investors jumped to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s statement on monetary policy. Crude jumped on short-covering ahead of expiry and data revealed that U.S. inventories fell last week. Natural gas traded with the positive note on supportive weather-forecasting models called for blast of cold air to trek across US. Ref.Soyaoil settled up on late short covering after prices dropped on oversupply woes following robust imports data Cereals Mentha oil edged lower due to ample stocks position in the physical market following increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh.Oil and Oilseeds & Others Soyabean prices dropped on expectation of higher supply of the crop from United States, Brazil and Argentina and on weak demand. Energy Copper prices eased pressured by a rise in Chinese output and concerns a sharp drop in the rouble could prompt Russian producers to churn out more metal. Zinc prices dropped as China’s manufacturing shrank, and euro zone economic growth was also languishing, depressing market sentiment.Pulses Nickel dropped on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates. Spices Chana prices rose on account of slow sowing operations and on unfavourable weather condition in major producing areas. Turmeric prices seen supported as falling stocks amidst improved domestic and export demand kept supporting the prices.Currency Jeera prices dropped as a cooler weather in Gujarat and Rajasthan is expected to be beneficial for the crop growth weighed on prices. Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 2
  • 3. MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 27150 SUP-2 26707 Gold trading range for the day is 26707-27371. HIGH 27247 SUP-1 26831 Gold dropped as Fed signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens. LOW 26915 P.P. 27039 Fed was unlikely to hike rates for "at least a couple of meetings," meaning April of next year at the earliest. Gold settled down -0.88% at 26955 after having fallen sharply in the previous session amid renewed doubts to whether the Federal Reserve will signal tighter monetary policy. While Comex Gold hovered near its weakest level in more than two weeks to trade at 1188.90 today morning after the Fed signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens. Overnight, Gold futures dipped on Wednesday as investors jumped to the sidelines ahead of the Fed's statement on monetary policy later in the session. The Fed is not seen raising interest rates until 2015, but many investors bet Wednesday's statement will scrap language suggesting that borrowing costs will remain low for a considerable amount of time. Expectations for more hawkish language supported the greenback, which tends to trade inversely with gold. Elsewhere, investors shrugged off lackluster inflation data. The Department of Labor reported earlier that the U.S. consumer price index fell 0.3% last month, outpacing estimates for a decline of 0.1% and down from a flat reading in October. Consumer prices were 1.3% higher on a year-over-year basis, just shy of expectations for a 1.4% reading after a 1.7% increase in October. Meanwhile, Market believe Russia may be gearing up to sell its gold reserves as it handles a currency crisis that has seen its ruble drop to record lows against the dollar. Demand for physical gold in Asia was lackluster also Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, which last week posted their biggest weekly rise since mid-July, saw a second consecutive daily outflow on Tuesday, of 1.8 tonnes. Technically market is getting support at 26831 and below same could see a test of 26707 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 27163, a move above could see prices testing 27371. MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 36762 SUP-2 35847 Silver trading range for the day is 35847-37489. CLOSE 26955 RES-1 27163 Russia may be gearing up to sell its gold reserves as it handles a currency crisis that has seen its ruble drop to record lows against the dollar. % CNG -0.88 RES-2 27371 SELL GOLD FEB @ 27100 SL 27280 TGT 26920-26780-26650.MCX HIGH 37047 SUP-1 36289 Silver recovered from lows as investors jumped to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s statement on monetary policy. LOW 36226 P.P. 36668 The U.S. central bank said it would take a "patient" approach in deciding when to bump borrowing costs higher. CLOSE 36731 RES-1 37110 Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.59% i.e. 62.56 tonnes to 10544.01 tonnes from 10606.57 tonnes. % CNG 0.01 RES-2 37489 SELL SILVER MAR @ 37000 SL 37560 TGT 36560-36100-35850.MCX Silver settled at 36731 hovered near its weakest level in more than two weeks on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled it was on track to increase interest rates next year as the U.S. economy strengthens. The U.S. central bank said it would take a "patient" approach in deciding when to bump borrowing costs higher. A hike in U.S. interest rates dims the appeal of non-interest bearing assets such as bullion and also pushes the dollar higher. Asian central bankers are on guard but say they are not overly concerned that the Russian rouble's collapse will trigger a big sell-off of their own currencies, saying their fundamentals are favourable and their currency defences strong. In economic news from the U.S., a Labor Department report showed consumer price index to have dropped by 0.3 percent in November, after coming in unchanged in October. In economic news from eurozone, inflation came in line with flash estimate in November at a five-year low, final data from Eurostat showed. Annual inflation came in at 0.3 percent in November, down from 0.4 percent in October. A year ago, the rate was at 0.9 percent. The November inflation matched flash estimate released on November 28. Investors were also eyeing Russia after the rouble plunged more than 11 percent against the dollar on Tuesday despite a hefty interest rate hike. Russia's financial crisis initially weighed on stocks on Wednesday, but European shares staged a late recovery following the bounce higher in energy and as new signs of economic stimulus measures from the ECB lifted shares. Technically market is getting support at 36289 and below same could see a test of 35847 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37110, a move above could see prices testing 37489. Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 3
  • 4. MCX Crudeoil Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA OPEN 3552 SUP-2 3357 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3357-3873. HIGH 3715 SUP-1 3515 Crude jumped on short-covering ahead of expiry and data revealed that U.S. inventories fell last week. LOW 3457 P.P. 3615 Crude oil prices have been under pressure after weak projections for global demand during a supply glut. Crudeoil settled up 2.77% at 3672 ended higher tracking gain's on Nymex where Crude prices have touched an intraday high of near $59 a barrel after an official weekly oil report from the EIA showed crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. to have dropped, albeit less than expected. The surge came after weekly oil data showed a big build in crude stockpiles at Cushing. When prices failed to make a new low following the bearish data, speculators raced to buy up contracts or take profits on short positions, setting off a frenzy of buying that took on its own momentum. The sudden spike on Wednesday caught traders and market by surprise, and many speculated on causes ranging from the surge in the value of the oversold Russian rouble to the U.S. decision to resume diplomatic relations with Cuba. Crude oil prices have been under pressure after weak projections for global demand during a supply glut. Crude has plunged to its lowest since 2009 losing more than 40 percent from its summer-time highs. Yesterday, a weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude oil inventories to have dropped by 0.85 million barrels in the week ended December 12, while analysts expected a decline of 2.36 million barrels. The report showed U.S. crude oil inventories at 379.9 million barrels, end last week. Gasoline stocks jumped by 5.25 million barrels last week, while makret anticipated a gain of 1.78 million barrels. Inventories of distillate, including heating fuel, fell by 0.21 million barrels last week. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday that crude inventories in the U.S. rose 1.9 million barrels last week. MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 408.2 SUP-2 399.8 Copper trading range for the day is 399.8-413.6. CLOSE 3672 RES-1 3773 EIA showed U.S. crude oil inventories to have dropped by 0.85 million barrels in the week ended December 12. % CNG 2.77 RES-2 3873 BUY CRUDE OIL DEC @ 3580 SL 3520 TGT 3650-3740.MCX HIGH 409.9 SUP-1 403.5 Copper prices eased pressured by a rise in Chinese output and concerns a sharp drop in the rouble could prompt Russian producers to churn out more metal. LOW 403.1 P.P. 406.7 Production of refined copper in China, rose 3.1 percent from the previous month in November, hitting a record for the fourth straight month. CLOSE 407.2 RES-1 410.4 A worldwide copper supply surplus of 300,000 tonnes is forecast in 2015 by Australia's Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics % CNG -0.39 RES-2 413.6 SELL COPPER @ 408-410 SL ABV 414 TGT 404.20-400.80-397. MCX (STBT) Copper settled down -0.39% at 407.15 fell on persistent demand concerns in China after China’s HSBC flash manufacturing PMI fell more than expected earlier this week, but regained earlier losses later to end. While overnight the Fed left interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% after the December policy meeting, and altered its langrage towards the timing of interest rate hike. Janet Yellen said the Fed would wait before beginning its first rate increases in more than six years, dropping the pledge that the rate will remain low for “a considerable period”. The statement weighed down the US dollar, but Yellen’s remark at the press conference after the meeting allowed the US dollar index to climb to 89.14. In economic news from the U.S., a Labor Department report showed consumer price index to have dropped by 0.3 percent in November, after coming in unchanged in October. Market expected the index to edge down by 0.1 percent. In economic news from eurozone, inflation came in line with flash estimate in November at a five-year low, final data from Eurostat showed. Annual inflation came in at 0.3 percent in November, down from 0.4 percent in October. A year ago, the rate was at 0.9 percent. The November inflation matched flash estimate released on November 28. Russian Finance Ministry announced plans to start selling its excess foreign-exchange holdings after the collapse of Russia’s ruble. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.44% to settled at 9573 while prices down - 1.6 rupee, now Copper is getting support at 403.5 and below same could see a test of 399.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 410.4, a move above could see prices testing 413.6. Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 4
  • 5. MCX Zinc Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA OPEN 136.8 SUP-2 132.9 Zinc trading range for the day is 132.9-138.1. HIGH 136.8 SUP-1 134.3 Zinc prices dropped as China’s manufacturing shrank, and euro zone economic growth was also languishing, depressing market sentiment. LOW 134.2 P.P. 135.5 ILZSG: Zinc demand to outcast supply by the end of 2014 Zinc settled down -0.81% at 135.45 finished mostly lower on views the Fed is more likely to lift interest rates next year after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued a statement at the conclusion of a two-day meeting removing the pledge to keep borrowing costs near zero for a “considerable time”. Base metals also fell on persistent demand concerns in China after China’s HSBC flash manufacturing PMI fell more than expected earlier this week. Also China’s manufacturing shrank, and euro zone economic growth was also languishing, depressing market sentiment. LME zinc prices thus dipped to a 1/2-year low of USD 2,111.25/mt. Janet Yellen expressed her confidence toward US economy, and Russia sold off US treasury to bolster Rupee, allowing crude oil prices to rebound. LME zinc prices rebounded to USD 2,140/mt, and closed at USD 2,145/mt, up USD 4.25/mt or 0.2%. Yesterday the US Federal Reserve left its federal fund rate unchanged at 0~0.25% on Wednesday, but moved away from the statement of keeping low rates for a considerable period of time to a patient normalization of monetary policy. Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen stated in an ensuing press conference that external economic risks from Russia and the euro zone will have limited impact on the US economy. She added that the Fed will not initiate the normalization of interest rates in the next two meetings. In response, the US dollar index closed up 1.28% at 89.04 on Wednesday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.31% to settled at 2533 while prices down -1.1 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at 134.3 and below same could see a test of 132.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 136.9, a move above could see prices testing 138.1. MCX Nickel Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA OPEN 1024.1 SUP-2 953.6 Nickel trading range for the day is 953.6-1043.6. CLOSE 135.5 RES-1 136.9 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 401 tonnes. % CNG -0.81 RES-2 138.1 SELL ZINC DEC @ 136 SL 137.20 TGT 135.20-134.MCX HIGH 1024.1 SUP-1 973.1 Nickel dropped on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates. LOW 979.1 P.P. 998.6 Nickel’s global surplus shrank to 33,800 metric tons during the first 10 months of the year, from 123,100 tons over the same period last year CLOSE 992.5 RES-1 1018.1 Fed Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates from historical lows before the end of April % CNG -2.68 RES-2 1043.6 SELL NICKEL DEC @ 1000 SL 1018 TGT 988-978.MCX Nickel settled down -2.68% at 992.50 on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates. Nickel’s global surplus shrank to 33,800 metric tons during the first 10 months of the year, from 123,100 tons over the same period last year, according to data from the International Nickel Study Group released Dec. 16. New-home prices fell in November from the previous month in 67 out of 70 cities tracked by China’s statistics bureau, according to data. The US Federal Reserve left its federal fund rate unchanged at 0~0.25% on Wednesday, but moved away from the statement of keeping low rates for a considerable period of time to a patient normalization of monetary policy. Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen stated in an ensuing press conference that external economic risks from Russia and the euro zone will have limited impact on the US economy. US seasonally adjusted CPI declined 0.3% in November, the biggest monthly fall in nearly six years and higher than a 0.1% drop expected. The index rose 1.3% YoY for the same month, shy of the estimated 1.4% and 1.7% in October. The nation’s current account deficit expanded from USD 98.5 billion in Q2 to USD 100.3 billion in Q3. LME nickel prices opened at USD 16,000/mt, then rose to the 60-day moving average, touching as high as USD 16,050/mt at one point, but falling back down to as low as USD 15,365/mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 41.79% to settled at 4190 while prices down -27.3 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 973.1 and below same could see a test of 953.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1018.1, a move above could see prices testing 1043.6. Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 5
  • 6. NCDEX Chana Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 3189 SUP-2 3162 Chana trading range for the day is 3162-3282. HIGH 3249 SUP-1 3195 Chana prices rose on account of slow sowing operations and on unfavourable weather condition in major producing areas. LOW 3189 P.P. 3222 India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing at 5.46 million hectares as compared to 6.47 million hectare previous year. Chana settled up by 1.38% at 3229 on account of slow sowing operations and on unfavourable weather condition in major producing areas. Further, rising demand in spot markets and holding back of stocks, too supported chana prices. Fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses too is having a Bullish impact on the prices. Lower production prospects in International markets would make import costlier. India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing at 5.46 million hectares as compared to 6.47 million hectare previous year. Area covered under chana is reported to be 4.09 million hectare as compared to 5.30 million hectare last year which is down 22.7% year on year. Lower prices on the back of record output and comfortable supplies may force farmers to switch over to other remunerative crops such as mustard and coriander which could yield better returns. Due to this, the government has set a target of 9.3 million tons for chana output for 2014-15 rabi season, down 5.87% compared to previous year. The 4th government advance estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013-14 at 19.27 million ton, up from 18.34 million ton earlier. Agriculture ministry has estimated chana record output at 9.88 million ton up from 8.83 million ton a year ago. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 88.55 rupee to end at 3200.2 rupee per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.15% to settled at 85540 while prices up 44 rupee, now Chana is getting support at 3195 and below same could see a test of 3162 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3255, a move above could see prices testing 3282. NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA OPEN 7920 SUP-2 7742 Turmeric trading range for the day is 7742-8110. CLOSE 3229 RES-1 3255 NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 393 tonnes to 39689 tonnes. % CNG 1.38 RES-2 3282 BUY CHANA JAN @ 3200-3210 SL BELOW 3160 TGT 3238-3265-3290. NCDEX (BTST) HIGH 8000 SUP-1 7852 Turmeric prices seen supported as falling stocks amidst improved domestic and export demand kept supporting the prices. LOW 7816 P.P. 7926 The total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. CLOSE 7962 RES-1 8036 Spot turmeric prices increased at Erode markets on the back of demand from North India. % CNG 1.01 RES-2 8110 BUY TURMERIC APR @ 7920 SL 7840 TGT 8000-8120-8240.NCDEX Turmeric settled up by 1.01% at 7962 as falling stocks amidst improved domestic and export demand kept supporting the prices. Demand is expected to pick up further in coming weeks. Falling stocks too are likely to support the prices. As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. This is mainly due to weak production forecast in major producing states such as Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu. Sources mentioned that weak rainfall so far in the major growing regions of turmeric in the state such as Nizamabad and Warangal will reduce the crop to 17-18 lakh bags from 22 lakh bags projected in the last year. Spot turmeric prices increased at Erode markets on the back of demand from North India. Following the receipt of upcountry demand, traders have started buying turmeric quoting higher price and arrivals also increased to 4,500 bags. Buyers procured 60 per cent to fulfil their committed upcountry orders. Prices may rule around current levels for another few days and if demand increases or superfine quality turmeric arrives for sale, prices may go up. Hybrid varieties were up Rs. 200 a quintal and the local varieties by Rs. 150. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6583.75 rupees dropped -12.65 rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.45% to settled at 21195 while prices up 80 rupee, now Turmeric is getting support at 7852 and below same could see a test of 7742 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 8036, a move above could see prices testing 8110. Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 6
  • 7. MCX Menthaoil Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA OPEN 725.8 SUP-2 718.9 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 718.9-735.7. HIGH 731.6 SUP-1 723.0 Menthaoil spot is at 820/-. Spot market remains unchanged. LOW 723.2 P.P. 727.3 Mentha oil edged lower due to ample stocks position in the physical market following increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh. CLOSE 727.0 RES-1 731.4 Further, sluggish demand from consuming industries in the spot market too added pressure on prices. % CNG -0.01 RES-2 735.7 BUY MENTHA OIL DEC @ 720-723.50 SL BELOW 708 TGT 730-738-746. MCX (BTST) 407.15 135.45 992.5 120.7 Mentha oil edged marginally lower due to ample stocks position in the physical market following increased arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh. Further, sluggish demand from consuming industries in the spot market too added pressure on prices. But, hopes of rise in winter season export and domestic demand in the coming few weeks till before Christmas, capped some losses in mentha oil prices to some extent. At Sambhal market sources reported arrivals at 50 Drums(1-drum=180kg), unchanged as compared to previous day’s arrival. At Barabanki market estimated market supply was at 100 Drums(1-drum-180kg), higher by 40 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. At Rampur market total arrivals are at 6 Drums(1-drum=180kg), up by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous day’s arrivals. Mentha oil production is expected to fall this year by 30 per cent to 40,000 tonnes from 55,000 tonnes a year ago, with acreage under the commodity declining as farmers sentiment were dampened due to lower prices. Mentha oil arrivals to the spot market, especially from the Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, have increased substantially. The resulting fall in prices was capped due to lower production of the commodity this season. Acreage is expected to fall by 20 per cent this year, to 17,500 hectare on the back of a large carry-over stock from last year, which also had an impact on prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.34% to settled at 6463 while prices down -0.1 rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 723 and below same could see a test of 718.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.4, a move above could see prices testing 735.7. DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD 119.0 27163 37110 3773 238.1 CLOSE 26955 36731 3672 235 410.4 136.9 1018.1 121.3 135.5 998.6 120.3 RESISTANCE 27495 37931 4031 244.4 417.3 139.5 1063.1 123.0 27371 37489 3873 241.2 413.6 138.1 1043.6 122.0 P. POINT 27039 36668 3615 234.9 406.7 26499 35468 3257 225.5 396.6 SUPPORT 26707 35847 3357 228.6 399.8 953.6 118.6 26831 36289 3515 231.8 403.5 OI 8377 8451 14137 9137 9573 2533 4190 3651 131.7 928.1 117.9 134.3 973.1 119.6 132.9 Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 7 Positive Positive SPREAD 229 661 58.00 3.00 4.10 0.75 6.20 TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive 1.00 124.5 123.3 121.1 114.3 116.5 117.7 3707 119.9 1.2
  • 8. 2:30pm EUR 105.6 104.7 Day 1 EUR 0 0 Tentative EUR 0 1.84|2.2 7:00pm USD 297K 294K 8:15pm USD 57.1 56.2 8:30pm USD 26.3 40.8 8:30pm USD 0.006 0.009 9:00pm USD 0 -51B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas Storage 0 0 0 0 0 PREV The Bank of England said the Co-operative Bank, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland should strengthen their capital position. According to the 2014 stress test, five out of the eight participating banks did not reveal capital inadequacies at the end of 2013. But only Co-operative Bank was required to submit a revised capital plan given the continuing improvements to banks' resilience over the course of 2014 and concrete plans to build capital further going forward, the central bank said. The Financial Policy Committee of the BoE said only one bank fell below the 4.5 percent threshold at the trough of the stress scenario. Overall, the FPC judged that the resilience of the system had improved significantly since the capital shortfall exercise in 2013. The bank concluded that no system-wide, macroprudential actions on bank capital are needed given the results of tests, and the banking system is on the transition path to meet higher standards of loss absorbing capacity. Thu German Ifo Business Climate EU Economic Summit Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Flash Services PMI Philly Fed Manufacturing Index CB Leading Index m/m NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP China's production of refined copper rose 3.1 percent from the previous month in November, hitting a record for the fourth straight month as high processing fees prompted smelters to produce more metal. Refined copper output reached 755,492 tonnes in November, up from the previous record at 732,746 tonnes in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Higher rates at new smelting capacity, expected to be 600,000 tonnes this year, have gradually pushed up copper production in the second half, industry sources said. Plentiful supply of raw material, concentrate, and higher margins have also driven strong metal production. A 100,000-tonne-a-year copper smelter in China's northeastern Liaoning province started production last month after staying idle for about 5 years, the sources said. Refined copper production increased 11.5 percent on-year to 7.17 million tonnes in the first 11 months, the data showed. The November output was higher than about 630,000 tonnes estimated by state-backed research firm Antaike, although the estimated output was also a record, Yang Changhua, its senior analyst said. He added that Antaike's estimate had taken out some production double-counted by provinces. Production of refined zinc rose 6.2 percent on the month at 549,954 tonnes in November, hitting a record for the second straight month. Abundant supply of raw material, zinc concentrate, and strong metal prices prompted smelters to boost output. French private activity contracted at a slower rate in December as the corresponding index reached a four-month high, flash survey data from Markit Economics showed. The composite output index rose to 49.1 in December from 47.9 in November. A reading below 50 signals contraction in activity. The services Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, also climbed to a four-month high of 49.8 from 47.9 in November. The index was forecast to rise to 48.5. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.9 in December from 48.4 a month ago, also logging a four-month low. The reading was forecast to rise to 48.6. New work in the private sector rose for the first time in four months as new business in the service sector improved for the first time since August. However, new orders in the manufacturing sector continued to fall, though at the slowest rate since June. Private sector employment dropped for the fourteenth consecutive month. However, the rate of decline slowed to a six-month low. Agricultural commodities are likely to remain volatile globally in 2015, with strong buying support on lows to keep prices elevated in the first half. However, global oversupply could pull these down in the second half. A Rabobank study says the fundamentals in agri commodities appear more balanced through 2015, resulting in narrower trading ranges for many commodities versus 2014. On the demand side, growth has slowed in recent years. However, lower price levels should now encourage consumption growth, which will support prices. However, a strengthening dollar, uncertain Chinese demand growth, slowing biofuel demand and weakness in crude oil prices might spoil the party. Prices of agri commodities declined by up to 20 per cent in 2014 due to huge oversupply on stagnant global demand. Delay in implementation of a biofuel policy in Malaysia pulled down the average price of crude palm oil (CPO) to an estimated 2,140 ringgit in the December quarter from 2,693 ringgit in the March quarter. Rabobank forecasts the CPO price will recover to average 2,300 ringgit in the June ’15 quarter, before falling to 2,230 ringgit in the December quarter. On the supply side, bumper harvests in 2014 have improved world supplies of most grains and oilseeds, resulting in lower and less volatile price levels as compared to previous years. World coffee production in the ongoing 2014-15 crop year is set to decline 2.9 per cent to 141 million bags, compared to 145.2 million bags in 2013-14. The drop is attributed to drought in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of beans. According to International Coffee Organization (ICO), apex body of producing countries, the ongoing recovery in Colombia, with improved management of coffee leaf rust in Central America, is expected to mitigate the loss of Arabica. In terms of Robusta, production in Vietnam is provisionally expected to remain strong, while a significant drop is anticipated in Indonesia, given the recent low export volumes. Production of Arabica in Brazil will be six million bags lower in 2014-15, compared to 2013-14, ICO said in its latest report quoting Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab. In India, the sixth largest producer in the world, the Coffee Board’s post- blossom forecast has pegged bean production to grow 13.1 per cent to 344,500 tonnes, compared to the final production of 304,500 tonnes in 2013-14. Meanwhile, prices slipped back in November, as widespread rains in Brazil curtailed any further price rise. All group indicators decreased, although this was less noticeable in the case of Robusta, ICO said. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator settled on 162.17 US cents per lb (pound), 6.2 per cent lower than the October average but higher than that of September Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 8
  • 9. Date : Thursday, December 18, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 9