This document summarizes a conference on creating a sustainable older society in the UK by 2020. It discusses challenges of an aging population such as increasing numbers of older people needing care and people with dementia. Presenters addressed issues like healthcare sustainability, social care funding reforms, and the need for greater individual savings and retirement planning. Data showed the percentage of GDP spent on health, pensions and social care will rise significantly. The conference highlighted the need for stable social care policies, improved financial advice, and policy changes to support new retirement funding products that could help cover long-term care costs.
6. Indicative Statistics
Present/ C.2050 %
Recent past Increase
• World % of over 60’s 10% 20% 100%
• Older people needing care 101m 277m 174%
• People with dementia 44m 135m 207%
• % of UK GDP (Health, Pensions, 13% 19% 46%
Social care)
7. Potential Vision
• “A (global) society, which maximises good health
throughout the life course, which has mastered
preventable diseases & where health care systems
– Are efficient
– Publicise outcomes
– Are accessible to all citizens at all times
– Minimise rationing
– Have tariffs for usage which command wide
support
– Continue to evolve to changing demands”
12. Caring for an ageing population
12
% of population
age 85 and over
% of population
age 65 and over
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
• UK number aged 65+ is
expected to increase by more
than 50% in the next 20 years
• Aged 85+ expected to more
than double in the same period
• Wide variations in life
expectancies and
probability of needing
care between males
and females
• Variation by geographical
region in life expectancy
and morbidity
• Incidences of dementia
(moderate or severe
cognitive impairment) are
rising
13. Background to social care changes
• Background to social care changes
– Timeline – Care Act - Consultation
– Cap
– Different costs (hotel, LA rate, top-up)
– New means test limits – (£17k to 27k/118k)
– Other changes
• Recent budget announcement
– Facilitate product innovation
– Concern of pension funds being exhausted before needing LTC
14. What is sustainable care?
• Sustainable = greater self funding?
• Greater self funding can be achieved by
– Increasing awareness of
• long term care costs
• longevity risk at retirement
• financial options for providing an income in retirement including
meeting care costs
– Product innovation
– Tax incentives to encourage saving
15. Summary of findings from IFoA paper
• Need greater saving into pensions
• Pensions Bill
• Significant proportion of retirees will need LTC
• Most people who need LTC will not benefit from the cap
• Benefit of cap and personal costs vary significantly by region
• Range of pension products that could support LTC
• Communication
• Regulatory and tax changes
16. 5.7
6.1 6.4
5.6
6
4.5
3.9
3.4
4
4.7
9
7
6
9
7
14
18
22
17
13
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
£300,000
£350,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
North East North West Yorkshire &
the Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East of
England
London South East South West England
CareCostsbeforeandafterthecapisreached
Personal Funding of Care Costs by Region in England from 2016
Care Home with Nursing - 85 at entry into Care
Personal Funding required before the Cap is reached
Personal Funding for the remainder of the 10 year period
Years before Cap is reached
Percentage probability of surviving to when the Cap is reached
Probabilty of
reaching the cap
(%)
Years before cap
is reached
17. What do we need to know?
• We need greater sharing of social care cost data by local
authorities
• We need to understand how technology will impact care
• We need to understand how medical advances will affect the
ageing society
• We need to know how local authority rates will change under
the new regime – will the gap between LA rates and care costs
reduce? How will top-up of care costs affect this?
18. What do we need to do?
• Stable social care regime to provide foundation for greater
product development
• Create an effective information and advice process to
encourage greater saving and informed pensions decisions at
retirement
• Technical changes to support product development