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M2M and IoT predictions for 2014 - Different sources (updated Feb 2014)
 

M2M and IoT predictions for 2014 - Different sources (updated Feb 2014)

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The pdf contains M2M / IoT predictions for 2014 from different sources (analyst, telcos, vendors, and mine).

The pdf contains M2M / IoT predictions for 2014 from different sources (analyst, telcos, vendors, and mine).

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    M2M and IoT predictions for 2014 - Different sources (updated Feb 2014) M2M and IoT predictions for 2014 - Different sources (updated Feb 2014) Presentation Transcript

    • Consulting M2M – IoT Predictions 2014 From different sources January 2014 /Updated February 2014 1 © Copyright OIES Consulting All rights reserved.
    • M2M - Previous Predictions Why most M2M forecasts are wrong! US M2M market to reach 114.7m connections in 2016 – Compass http://www.m2mnow.biz/2012/11/12/8575-compass-intelligence-explainsthe-m2m-market-will-reach-114-7-million-connections-by-year-end-2016/ http://postscapes.com/internet-of-things-market-size Internet of the Thing Master Forecast http://www.slideshare.net/HorizonWatching/internet-of-things-a-horizonwatching-trend-report-05feb2013 http://www.slideshare.net/GaldeMerkline/machina-research-cebit-m2mwhitepaper20120111 2 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Network Operators • • • • • • • • • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. • Smart Factories to foster individual manufacturing M2M in the automotive industry: the aftermarket is up and coming Big Data Analytics Breaking new ground: M2M targets consumer markets Smart Cities drive M2M in the public sector Global Alliances will expand M2M developers kick it into high gear Big enterprises everywhere embrace M2M The need for speed and security top the list M2M apps on the rise Stats change the game for decision-makers Customers with existing M2M applications will start to consume more data. M2M solution stack will start to mature, both horizontally and vertically More high-speed devices will enter the scene. Security will become the #1 need of an M2M application. Deep analytics will become the #1 want. Distributed analytics will emerge. Cloud is the network, and network is the cloud. Elephants will start to dance in Enterprise M2M. Global growth will begin to catch up to growth in developed countries. Mainstream developers will start to pay attention. M2M 'as a service' simplifies access to the connected world 4G LTE wireless service and the availability of machine-to-machine (M2M) solutions "as a service" over the Internet is likely to improve, and third parties may be able to help secure these devices from cyberthreats, a major factor that has prevented the enterprise from embracing M2M technology. In addition, Verizon believes that as M2M accelerates, manufacturers, dealers and business partners will be able to realize the full potential of new revenue streams and improve the efficiency of their supply chains. 3 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Network Operators • Consolidation of Smart Metering • Popularisation of connected cars • Transport Management extends • Consumer electronics for everybody • Insurance Telematics strikes more • Ecosystems evolve • Big Data, big benefits • Urban Labs spread • Certifications and standards • M2M will open with hardware https://m2m.telefonica.com/m2m-media/m2m-blog/item/618-top-m2m-trends-for-2014 4 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Analyst • Low-volume M2M projects will deliver growth to M2M specialists. • we believe the small-scale machine-to-machine (M2M) implementations will drive the market in 2014. Already today, 66 percent of IT decision-makers we survey say their planned deployments will have no more than 499 devices. • An influx of wearable tech entrants will open the door for downward price pressures to divide the market by device and use case. • More than three-quarters of European MNOs will offer M2M in 2014. • Increasing competitive pressure will accelerate product development and innovation in industries such as Retail and Industrial Automation as MNOs aim to capture a bigger piece of the M2M opportunity beyond more traditional Automotive and Energy applications. • 2014 is set to be the year when the focus of both IT buyers and providers shifts to the Internet of Things (IoT). • The explosion of IoT activity in 2014 and beyond will be driven by the nexus of low cost sensors, connectivity networks, cloud computing, advanced data analytics and mobility. • The first issues that MNOs will address will be around reliable connectivity and enterprise grade cloud computing services. • The connected enterprise and big data analytics as two of the main trends that will shape the global wireless M2M industry in 2014. • M2M applications generate enormous quantities of data about things such as vehicles, machinery or other forms of equipment and behaviours such as driving style, energy consumption or device utilisation. Big data technology enables near real-time analysis of these data sets to reveal relationships, dependencies and perform predictions of outcomes and behaviours 5 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Analyst The Internet is expanding beyond PCs and mobile devices into enterprise assets such as field equipment, and consumer items such as cars and televisions. The problem is that most enterprises and technology vendors have yet to explore the possibilities of an expanded internet and are not operationally or organizationally ready. Imagine digitizing the most important products, services and assets. The combination of data streams and services created by digitizing everything creates four basic usage models – Manage; Monetize; Operate; Extend. These four basic models can be applied to any of the four "internets” (people, things, information and places). Enterprises should not limit themselves to thinking that only the Internet of Things (i.e., assets and machines) has the potential to leverage these four models. Enterprises from all industries (heavy, mixed, and weightless) can leverage these four models The 3rd Platform will continue to expand beyond smartphones, tablets, and PCs in 2014 to the Internet of Things (IoT). With IoT momentum building in 2014, IDC expects to see new industry partnerships to emerge as traditional IT vendors accelerate their partnerships with global telecom service providers and semiconductor vendors to create integrated offerings in the consumer electronics and connected device spaces. This kind of collaboration and coordination will be necessary to reach the 30 billion autonomously connected end points and $8.9 trillion in revenues that IDC believes the IoT will generate by 2020. http://www.infonetics.com/research.asp?cvg=m2m 6 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Analyst Worldwide IoT Predictions 2014 Prediction #1: IoT Partnerships Will Emerge Among Disparate Vendor Ecosystems Prediction #2: Leaps of Faith in 2014 Will Create End-to-End IoT Solutions Prediction #3: Open Source-minded China Will Be a Key Player in the IoT Prediction #4: “Plumbing” of the IoT Will Attract Significant Activity in 2014 Prediction #5: IoT Will Come to Healthcare in 2014 Prediction #6: Mobility Software Vendors Will Continue to Show a Lack of Interest in IoT Prediction #7: Worldwide “Smart City” Spending on the IoT Will Be $265 Billion in 2014 Prediction #8: A Smart Wearable Will Launch & Sell More Units than Apple or Samsung Wearables on the Market in 2014 Prediction #9: IoT Security Is a Hot Topic, But There Will Be No Heat Until There Is a Fire Prediction #10: Professional Services Will Open Up the IoT Competitive Landscape Prediction #11 (Bonus!): Big Data Will Drive Value Creation from IoT Wearable Technologies Deloitte predicts smart glasses, fitness bands and watches, should sell about 10 million units in 2014, generating $3 billion according to its Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2014 report released today. Deloitte also predicts that the total global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets and gaming consoles will exceed $750 billion in 2014 and then plateau as consumer usage will continue to converge http://www.deloitte.com/Predictions2014. 7 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Analyst Senior analyst Aapo Markkanen Analytics will play a critical role in the evolution of M2M, serving as the foundation for an increasing number of M2M business cases. In essence, such analytics-driven business cases will be about making previously opaque physical assets part of the digital data universe. “M2M has thus a very synergetic relationship with the wider big data space, with growth in one industry driving also growth in the other" 2013 1. Operator alliances will expand and their roles become clearer. 2. Data analytics seizes the M2M agenda. 3. Standards…who cares? 4. Programmable SIMs/eUICC will start to take off and several operators won’t wait for standardisation. 5. Modules will become more fit-for-purpose. 6. Module vendors, under more competitive pressure, start to compete with MNOs. 7. More M&A in M2M. 8. More diversity in RAN technology. 9. More focus on delivery and profitability (and verticals). 10. Usage-based insurance will take off, particularly in Europe. http://iotevent.eu/machina-research-ten-predictions-for-m2m-in-2013/ Total global M2M connections will increase from 106.4 million in 2012 to 360.9 million in 2018, at a CAGR of 22.6%. There will be growth across all regions, but it will be fastest in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa. By the end of our forecast period the former will make up more than a third of all M2M connections. M2M service revenues will grow from $13,645m in 2012 to $44,800m in 2018, representing a CAGR of 21.9 %. Revenues will grow slightly more slowly than connections, reflecting the increasing competitiveness of the market and the extension of M2M into lower-value applications. The fastest-growing region is Asia-Pacific, which will grow at a CAGR of 26.5%; the fastest growing industry vertical is "Other," which will grow at 31.8% (albeit from a low base). http://ovum.com/research/m2m-connections-and-service-revenues-forecast-2013-18/ 8 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Analyst 1. Dawning realisation of the evolution from M2M to IoT. 2. More traffic and more ARPU. 3. Fears over 2G refarming will continue to dog the growth of M2M. 4. Low power wide area networks will see much more widespread deployment. 5. Customers will move away from roaming-based services, towards localised connectivity using remote provisioning (and MNOs/SPs will resolve associated commercial issues). 2014 6. Those selling to the M2M market will find their focus, and smaller operators will find their feet. 7. The big data analytics star will rise … and fall. 8. More M&A is coming. 9. The ratio of products revenue to services revenue will sort the men from the boys. 10. Connected homes finally arrive. http://www.m2mnow.biz/2014/01/10/17896-machina-research-offers-ten-predictions-for-the-m2m-and-iot-world-in-2014/ 9 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 – Vendors James Kobielus Big Data Evangelist 10 • IoT will be the proverbial "next big thing," evolving into the largest, most complex, most dynamic and most pervasive than any infrastructure that anything that human civilization has built up to this point in history. • Data scientists will become the principal programmers of IoT applications that leverage big data, operate over the cloud, and incorporate stream computing. • Personalized healthcare analytics with wearable devices will become the compelling application that drives IoT into mass consumer adoption. • The most widely adopted IoT gadgets will be those that provide platforms for partner ecosystems, with fortunes to be made by enterprising developers who write the apps, statistical models, rules and other "app logic" needed to ensure that things to do what they're supposed to do. • As the IoT takes shape, the notion of a totally “dumb” endpoint will become antiquated and it will be difficult to find any consumer, business, industrial or other device that totally lacks embedded, data-driven analytic intelligence. • Before long, most IoT-enabled things will be exceedingly small and inconspicuous as component miniaturization pushes things deeper into nanotechnology territory • IoT will drive adoption of stream computing technology, because guaranteed low latency is becoming the unstated expectation in every online interaction—whether it involves people, machines or some combination—and only stream computing can deliver on that promise. • IoT won't achieve its revolutionary potential in business and consumer spheres without a layer of next-best-action or decision-automation technology to ensure continuous realization of desired outcomes. • Security concerns will prove critical to IoT's adoption, because both businesses and consumers will demand greater trust in the sensors, actuators, rules engines and other connected componentry we embed in every element of our existence. • Non-linear chaotic "butterfly effects” are likely to be far more prevalent in IoT environments than in traditional B2C-oriented big data applications, due to the very real potential for combinatorial explosion in IoT interaction patterns. © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Vendors Alex Brisbourne, President and COO, KORE In 2014, M2M will make a perceptible shift to richer data transport, with devices coming online that yield a much higher usage profile than our market has ever seen, leveraging both capacity and more attractive rates. This drop in cost per connection has made possible applications including cellular backup of enterprise routers (in place of maintaining that extra T1 line), M2M-controlled digital advertising and continuous video surveillance, even from the most remote locations on Earth. Provider business models will experience a commensurate shift. James Mack, Marketing & Channel Development Manager Asia-Pacific 1. Healthcare Applications will reign 2. Smart Cities will reach a stalemate due to security concerns 3. Apps, Apps and more Apps 4. Hungry Devices 5. Simple and Open will be the trend for 2014 http://m2mworldnews.com/2014/02/14/34198-kores-top-5-predictions-for-the-internet-ofthings-and-m2m-industry-in-2014/ 11 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 - Vendors Anu Sood, Global Channel Marketing Manager, SkyWave Mobile Comunications 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. One-Stop Shop Higher Visibility in the Transportation of Oil “Unauthorized Extraction” from Pipelines Water Metering and Leak Detection Water in Agriculture Shift from Big Data to Right Data http://www.novotech.com/blog/huge-m2m-predictionssap-are-they-realistic Amr Awadallah, Chief Technology Officer, Cloudera I think the Internet of Things movement is very exciting, but we are still at the beginning of that movement. There is still a lot of work that needs to be done in terms of adding all the proper instrumentation (sensor devices) to all the things out there. Also a lot of plumbing work is needed to reliably collect the data from all these devices. That infrastructure shift will take some time, so I don’t expect the Internet of Things to really take off until 2015 12 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 – Vendors The “Internet of Things” becomes the “Internet of Vulnerabilities.” You can expect dumb things will get smarter in 2014. With millions of devices connected to the Internet—and in many cases running an embedded operating system—in 2014, they will become a magnet for hackers. Security researchers have already demonstrated attacks against smart televisions, medical equipment and security cameras. Already we’ve seen baby monitors attacked and traffic was shut down on a major tunnel in Israel, reportedly due to hackers accessing computer systems via a security camera system. Major software vendors have figured out how to notify customers and get patches for vulnerabilities to them. The companies building gadgets that connect to the Internet don’t even realize they have an oncoming security problem. These systems are not only vulnerable to an attack – they also lack notification methods for consumers and businesses when vulnerabilities are discovered. Even worse, they don’t have a friendly end-user method to patch these new vulnerabilities. Given this, we are going to see new threats in ways in which we’ve never seen before. Marc Rogers, principal security researcher, Lookout The impact of the internet of things: The ongoing development of the internet of things will continue to impact cyber security in 2014, as attackers now have more potential entry routes to sensitive governmental, corporate and personal data than ever. Mundane objects – such as thermostats and fridges – which were once completely unremarkable from a security perspective, have suddenly become the guardians of sensitive data, ranging from sensitive financial information to detailed telemetry about personal aspects of our lives. David Andersson, Director of IFS Labs Our prediction is that we won’t see anything revolutionary in this area in 2014. We’re already seeing stuff like the keychain that whistles if you forget it when you are walking out the door, the door that opens automatically for emergency personnel when an elderly person has taken a fall in his/her home. But come on. This is about as ground breaking as the return of the Tamagotchi. We are not impressed, nor do we think you should you be. We predict it will be 5+ years until we see something that will cause some real waves; clothes that change their fabric depending on the weather, food that tells me what they go well with of what I currently have in the fridge and so on. So, sorry folks, 2014 is not the year IoT will break through. Probability: ULTRA High – As certain as certain gets 13 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • M2M Predictions 2014 – OIES M2M • M2M industry veterans will continue thinking that it takes a lot more by regulators, vendors, operators and customers for 2014 than another year of transition as 2013. • Dominant Tier 1 Global Operators will see increased competition from specialized M2M Service providers and new MVNO entrants, so M2M data connection will continue lowering prices in order not to lose deals. Besides, Tier 1 MNO will focus only on the most profitable industries and new partnerships with IT Cloud vendors that enable them to be dominant in these industries. • Devices vendors will acquire or improve their M2M cloud based platforms and will move toward a Solution Sales model by vertical. We • M2M platforms consolidation will continue during 2014 looking for a M2M PaaS model. • Enterprise Software vendors will incorporate M2M in their solutions (eg Workforce Management, CEM,..) • System Integrators will create a M2M cross division and will partner with Telcos & Device vendors to offer vertical M2M &Big Data solutions.. We will see first M2M services providers. IoT • 2014 will be the peak of inflated expectations (Gartner HypeCyclele) with IoT, the number of new entrants (hardware, software, services) will double. • Wearable devices and other smart things from different vendors will have a integration problem with the smartphones applications and cloud based applications. • A serious discussion to define Thing and unique identification of that Thing will be raised in the industry. • A need to discover IoT public services and provide secure communication will be discussed after some malicious attacks to public and private clouds. • We will see different alliances and new partnerships to dominate the future IoT. https://www.linkedin.com/groups/It-is-time-2014-M2M108418.S.5816948371713204224?qid=9217a2cf-26d9-4939a6a2-23424f8babc1&trk=groups_most_recent-0-bttl&goback=%2Egmr_108418 14 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.
    • Why OIES Consulting M2M/IoT Advisory services based on our deep knowledge of the Telco, M2M and Big Data market and technology Hands on Experience in Business Development and Enterprise solutions selling for Technology and Professional services firms Best Partner ecosystem to cover all of our services exceeding customer expectations Worldwide Customer references For Further information Francisco Maroto francisco.maroto@oies.es 15 © Copyright OIES Consulting. All rights reserved.