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Epic research daily agri report 01 jan 2015
1. DAILYAGRI COMMODITY REPORT
01 January 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
DHANIYA
JAN 11964 12100 11611 11611 -3.99 2830
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11448
SUPP. 2
11285
PIVOT
11774
Dhaniya short term
trend is down, further
more downside is
expected in comimg
days.
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11937
RES. 2
12263
CASTORSEED
JAN 4847 5016 4766 5010 +2.66 86540
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4846
SUPP. 2
4682
PIVOT
4930
Castorseed short term
trend is down, Prices
expected to go down in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5094
RES. 2
5178
TURMERIC
APR 8600 8990 8600 8990 +3.98 21930
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8730
SUPP. 2
8470
PIVOT
8860
Turmeric short term
trend is down and may
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9120
RES. 2
9250
GUARGUM
JAN 12700 12890 12650 12760 +0.16 6496
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
12643
SUPP. 2
12527
PIVOT
12767
Guargum Short term
trend is up, Expecting
price may go up in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12883
RES. 2
13007
3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-04-2015 8990.00 344.00 3.98%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-01-2015 5010.00 130.00 2.66%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-01-2015 11611.00 -483.00 -3.99%
CHANA 20-01-2015 3550.00 -147.00 -3.98%
V 797 KAPAS 27-02-2015 781.00 -24.00 -2.98%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-01-2015 640.35 -10.55 -1.62%
JEERA 20-01-2015 15575.00 -195.00 -1.24%
SOYABEAN 20-01-2015 3367.00 -40.00 -1.17%
GUR 20-01-2015 967.00 -11.00 -1.12%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-01-2015 1440.00 -14.00 -0.96%
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 5010 4880 +2.66
CHANA 3550 3697 -3.98
CORIANDER 11611 12094 -3.99
GUARGUM 12760 12740 +0.16
JEERA 15575 15770 -1.24
MUSTARD SEED 4295 4299 -0.09
SOYABEAN 3367 3407 -1.17
TURMERIC 8990 8646 +3.98
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Living up to its traditional image of being a land of farmers, India
has achieved a record production for a number of crops including
wheat, rice, pulses and cotton in 2014, but agriculture sector may not
be able to repeat this performance in new year due to poor monsoon.
While output may fall for foodgrains and some other crops, there are
also fears that prices of farm items could decline in 2015 on global
cues and affect farmers' income.Agri-experts feel that government
may have to regularly intervene during next year for protecting
farmers' interest as it has recently done by raising the import duties on
both crude and refined edible oils by 5 per cent each.As far as 2014 is
concerned, it was a mixed year for the agriculture sector, on which
more than 50 per cent of the population is dependent although it
contributes only 14 per cent to the country's GDP.While the first half
of the year brought cheers with an all-time high foodgrains production
at over 264 million tonnes and record output of cotton and sugarcane,
the second half saw drought-like situation in some parts of the
country, posing a big challenge for the new government.
Production of rabi crops, especially wheat, pulses and oilseeds, is
expected to fall marginally in 2014-15 due to lower acreage, "There
was 13 per cent shortfall in monsoon rains. It is natural, there would
be some impact on rabi crops but it will not be significant," Till
yesterday, sowing area was down by two per cent and the overall rabi
production is also expected to be slightly lower than in 2013-14,
According to the latest data, rabi crops have been sown in 53 million
hectares area so far this season, as against 55.7 million hectare in the
year-ago. Area under wheat is down at 27.9 million hectare this year
as against 28.6 million hectare last year, while pulses acreage is at
12.41 million hectare this year as against 13.47 million hectare in the
review period.Rabi sowing starts from October, while harvesting
begins from March.
Fresh buying was seen in mustard seed futures on the heels of weak sowing
progress in the current year coupled with strong export demand of meal. The
NCDEX April futures added 0.60 percent.As per the latest sowing acreage
release by Ministry of Agriculture on 26th December 2014, the total sowing
acreage of mustard seed was reported at 63.79 lakh hectares, down 3.31 lakh
hectares from the last year in the same year. The major decline was reported in
Rajasthan and Gujarat. The acreage of both the states has been declined by 12
percent and 28.40 percent respectively from the last year. The major reasons
for decline in sowing acreage were late harvesting kharif crop in these states
coupled with higher sowing of barley and coriander in the current year.The
futures prices were also encouraged by strong meal export demand. The latest
release of As Solvent Extractors Association of India stated that the total
exports of mustard meal during November 2014 were reported at 0.39 lakh
tonnes against 0.27 lakh tonnes of the last year in the same season.The
NCDEX April futures increased by 0.60 percent today to close at Rs 3526 per
quintal. The NCDEX futures added 2.08 percent in open interest indicating
fresh buying by traders.
The prices may get support by good demand in the spot market against tight
supplies from producing belts. In Rajkot, European quality cumin seed was
traded at Rs 2,750-2,850/20kg, Singapore quality was quoted at Rs 2,650-
2,750. But profit booking on higher level cannot be denied.Jeera futures are
expected to trade on a mixed note to positive note as strong demand from the
export and lower winter sowing data may up the prices. Jeera January contract
fell 1.24 per cent to 15575 on Wednesday at India's National Commodity&
Derivative Exchange(NCDEX).According to Gujarat government data
releases on 22nd Dec 14, Jeera recorded 44% less sowing compared to last
year’s 4.4 lakh hac. Sowing of the spice has almost over both in Gujarat and
Rajasthan reported lower acreage.The tight supply and good demand in spot
market coupled with the slight expected delay of new crop due to late sowing
support the prices during the period.Export orders are diverted to India due to
Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey. .Jeera (cumin) exports have been
87,500 tonnes in the first six months (Apr-Sep) of 2014-15, a rise of 25%
from the corresponding period of the previous (Source: Spices Board).
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Chana
CHANA ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT MARKET
National & International Market Update
Pulses market noticed range-bound movement except weak tone in
chana,Chana hits Lower circuit on Import Duty Uncertainty-At the National
Commodity and Derivative exchange, January chana decline by Rs 147 or
4% to Rs 3,550 per quintal with open interest of 62320 lots and volume of
144020. The price fell due to uncertainty on 10% import duty on chana ,
proposed by Revenue Department. At JNPT port (Mumbai),60 containers of
Tanzania tur, 9 containers of yellow gram, 8 containers of Ethiopia green
mung, 7 containers of green moong and 35 containers of tur arrived
Dec.31,2014.Rabi Pulses Sowing Down 8.5% Y-O-Y, Chana Down
14.17%. According to Ministry of Agriculture, total rabi pulses acreage till
Dec 26,2014 is down by 8.5% to 124.16 lakh hectare(Ha.) as compared
with last year’s area coverage of 134.72 lakh hectare during the
corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down by 14.17%
to 77.81 Lakh Ha. against 90.66 lakh ha. in same corresponding week
during last year.
Pakistan Pulses Import Surge on Lower Domestic crop. Pakistan pulses
import during July-November 2014-15 is up by 36% to $149.758 million
from $109.491 million in July-November 2013-14. In terms of volume,
247,558 tonne imported in 2014-15 compared with 175,549 tonne. Pakistan
imports majorily from Ausralia,Myanmar, Tanzania, and Ethiopia.
Domestic crop in 2014-15 is down by 0.3 MMT(Million Metric Tonne) to
0.7 MMT from last year. The country yearly demand is about 0.6 MMT.
USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation release purchase 9690 tonne of
pulses for February to March Shipments. China 2014-15 Pulses Prod. Up
by 5%,Mung Prod. Down by 20%-In the Marketing year 2014-15 (Oct.-
Sept.), China's total pulses production is forecast to increase by 5% to 4.2
million tonne due to higher kidney bean production. The Pulses production
accounts for less than 1% of China's annual grain and feed output and
receives no production support from the Central Government.
CENTER 31-Dec-14 30-Dec-14 Change
DELHI 20 35 -15
AJMER 350 NA -
ALWAR 1000 500 500
ASHOKNAGAR 200 300 -100
JALGAON 100 100 UNCH
AKOLA 200 200 UNCH
AMARAVATI 800 1000 -200
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL DHANIYA JAN BELOW 11600 TGTS 11570,11520 SL 11650 BUY GUARGUM JAN ABOVE 12830 TGTS 12880,12980 SL 12740
SELL CASTORSEED JAN BELOW 4970 TGTS 4940,4890 SL 5020 BUY TMC APR ABOVE 9000 TGTS 9050,9150 SL 8910
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