Our most recent federal vote intention poll shows the NDP (34%) currently holding a small five-point lead over the second-place Liberals (29%). The Conservatives are in third place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight percent support the Green party and four percent support the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec). 


1. National Survey Results:
Federal Vote Intention – NDP leads narrowly
September 17, 2015

2. 2Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
 Environics conducted a live interview telephone survey of
1,001 adult Canadians, 18 years of age and over. The survey
was conducted September 10 to 15, 2015. Both landlines and
cell phones were surveyed.
 The data was weighted by gender, age and region to match
the Canadian census population parameters.
 Among the 1,001 respondents, 725 people (72%) were
decided eligible voters, 13% will not vote and 15% are
undecided or refused to say. The margin of error for a
random sample-based survey of 725 is plus or minus 3.6
percentage points (at the 95% confidence level).
Methodology

3. 3Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Highlights
 Across Canada, the NDP (34%) currently has a small five
point lead over the second place Liberals (29%). This is
within the margin of error. The Conservatives are in third
place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight
percent support the Green party and four percent support
the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec).
 Liberals are far more likely to have the NDP as their
second choice than the Conservatives (46% vs. 20%).
Similarly, 44% of NDP voters have the Liberals as second
choice and just 8% have the Conservatives as second
choice. To the extent Conservative voters have a second
choice at all, 28% would vote Liberal compared to 14%
who would vote NDP.

4. 4Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Regional highlights
 The NDP has an overwhelming lead in Quebec with 52%
support compared to 16% for the Liberals and 15% for the
Bloc Quebecois. Conservative support is very weak at just 11%
 The Liberals (36%) have a modest lead over the Conservatives
(30%) in Ontario with the NDP running third (24%).
 Other regional sub-samples are small and yield only
directional patterns. The NDP and Liberals are competitive in
B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The NDP appears to be strong in
Manitoba/Saskatchewan, while the Conservatives maintain
their traditional dominance of Alberta.

5. 5Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Demographic highlights
 There is a very stark age gap in party preference. The older people are the
more likely they are to vote Conservative; The younger people are the
more likely they are to vote NDP. Conservative support is concentrated
among those over the age of 60. Liberal support does not vary by age.
 The gender gap is also very significant. Liberal support is now 10 points
higher among women than it is among men, while Conservative support
and to a lesser extent NDP support skews more male. The NDP’s strong
appeal among men is a recent phenomenon.
 Education is another key determinant of vote intention. NDP support is
very strong among university graduates and drops off among those with
lower levels of education. The Conservatives are weakest among
university graduates.

6. 6Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
26%
34%
29%
4%
8%
Conservative Party New Democratic
Party
Liberal Party Bloc Québécois Green Party
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725)
Vote intention – Decided voters
The NDP leads the Liberals by five points. Conservatives are running third.

7. 7Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) *NB: small sample size
Second choice – By initial party support
8%
20%
8%
4%
46%
14%
34%
29%
44%
28%
32%
15%
7%
1%
1%
4%
15%
8%
5%
4%
26%
25%
53%
22%
48%
NDP Voters
Liberal voters
Conservative
Voters
Green voters*
BQ voters*
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green No 2nd Choice
Liberal voters tend to have NDP as their 2nd choice and vice-versa.
Conservative voters are most likely to have no 2nd choice at all

8. 8Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
26%
20%
11%
30%
27%
53%
22%
34%
32%
52%
24%
43%
23%
34%
29%
41%
16%
36%
19%
19%
34%
4%
15%
8%
7%
5%
9%
11%
5%
9%
Total
Atlantic*
QC
ON
Man/Sask*
Alberta*
BC*
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) - *NB: small sample size
Vote intention – By region
NDP leads in Quebec; Conservatives lead in Alberta; Liberals are slightly
ahead in Ontario

9. 9Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725)
Vote intention – By gender
26%
30%
21%
34%
36%
32%
29%
24%
34%
4%
3%
4%
8%
7%
9%
Total
Men
Women
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Liberal support skews heavily female. Conservatives and to a lesser extent the
NDP do better among men

10. 10Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725)
Vote intention – By age
26%
16%
20%
28%
37%
34%
42%
37%
33%
25%
29%
30%
29%
27%
29%
4%
0%
5%
5%
3%
8%
12%
9%
5%
6%
Total
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
The “age gap” is stark. NDP support skews young; Conservative support skews old.

11. 11Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725))
Vote intention – By education level
26%
28%
27%
30%
22%
34%
20%
25%
32%
42%
29%
37%
33%
24%
29%
4%
0%
5%
5%
2%
8%
13%
10%
8%
5%
Total
Less than high school
High school
College/Some Univ
University degree
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Education has become a key predictor of vote intention: The more educated
people are, the more likely to vote NDP

12. 12Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?
Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725)
Vote intention – By household income level
26%
21%
19%
23%
19%
33%
34%
32%
37%
38%
38%
32%
29%
29%
33%
22%
31%
29%
4%
4%
2%
5%
7%
1%
8%
13%
8%
11%
5%
4%
Total
<$30K
$30K - <$50K
$50K - <$80K
$80K - <$100K
$100K+
Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green
Conservative support is stronger among those with high incomes. NDP and
Liberal support is quite flat across income bands

13. 1313
Derek Leebosh
Vice President, Public Affairs
Environics Research Group Ltd.
Derek.leebosh@environics.ca
416-969-2817
www.environics.ca