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National Survey Results:
Federal Vote Intention – NDP leads narrowly
September 17, 2015
2Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
 Environics conducted a live interview telephone survey of
1,001 adult Canadians...
3Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Highlights
 Across Canada, the NDP (34%) currently has a small five
point lead o...
4Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Regional highlights
 The NDP has an overwhelming lead in Quebec with 52%
support...
5Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Demographic highlights
 There is a very stark age gap in party preference. The o...
6Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
26%
34%
29%
4%
8%
Conservative Party New Democratic
Party
Liberal Party Bloc Québ...
7Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following par...
8Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
26%
20%
11%
30%
27%
53%
22%
34%
32%
52%
24%
43%
23%
34%
29%
41%
16%
36%
19%
19%
3...
9Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following par...
10Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following pa...
11Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following pa...
12Federal Vote Intention – September 2015
Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following pa...
1313
Derek Leebosh
Vice President, Public Affairs
Environics Research Group Ltd.
Derek.leebosh@environics.ca
416-969-2817
...
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Environics Research Federal Vote Intention September 2015

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Our most recent federal vote intention poll shows the NDP (34%) currently holding a small five-point lead over the second-place Liberals (29%). The Conservatives are in third place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight percent support the Green party and four percent support the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec). 


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Environics Research Federal Vote Intention September 2015

  1. 1. National Survey Results: Federal Vote Intention – NDP leads narrowly September 17, 2015
  2. 2. 2Federal Vote Intention – September 2015  Environics conducted a live interview telephone survey of 1,001 adult Canadians, 18 years of age and over. The survey was conducted September 10 to 15, 2015. Both landlines and cell phones were surveyed.  The data was weighted by gender, age and region to match the Canadian census population parameters.  Among the 1,001 respondents, 725 people (72%) were decided eligible voters, 13% will not vote and 15% are undecided or refused to say. The margin of error for a random sample-based survey of 725 is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points (at the 95% confidence level). Methodology
  3. 3. 3Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Highlights  Across Canada, the NDP (34%) currently has a small five point lead over the second place Liberals (29%). This is within the margin of error. The Conservatives are in third place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight percent support the Green party and four percent support the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec).  Liberals are far more likely to have the NDP as their second choice than the Conservatives (46% vs. 20%). Similarly, 44% of NDP voters have the Liberals as second choice and just 8% have the Conservatives as second choice. To the extent Conservative voters have a second choice at all, 28% would vote Liberal compared to 14% who would vote NDP.
  4. 4. 4Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Regional highlights  The NDP has an overwhelming lead in Quebec with 52% support compared to 16% for the Liberals and 15% for the Bloc Quebecois. Conservative support is very weak at just 11%  The Liberals (36%) have a modest lead over the Conservatives (30%) in Ontario with the NDP running third (24%).  Other regional sub-samples are small and yield only directional patterns. The NDP and Liberals are competitive in B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The NDP appears to be strong in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, while the Conservatives maintain their traditional dominance of Alberta.
  5. 5. 5Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Demographic highlights  There is a very stark age gap in party preference. The older people are the more likely they are to vote Conservative; The younger people are the more likely they are to vote NDP. Conservative support is concentrated among those over the age of 60. Liberal support does not vary by age.  The gender gap is also very significant. Liberal support is now 10 points higher among women than it is among men, while Conservative support and to a lesser extent NDP support skews more male. The NDP’s strong appeal among men is a recent phenomenon.  Education is another key determinant of vote intention. NDP support is very strong among university graduates and drops off among those with lower levels of education. The Conservatives are weakest among university graduates.
  6. 6. 6Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 26% 34% 29% 4% 8% Conservative Party New Democratic Party Liberal Party Bloc Québécois Green Party Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) Vote intention – Decided voters The NDP leads the Liberals by five points. Conservatives are running third.
  7. 7. 7Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) *NB: small sample size Second choice – By initial party support 8% 20% 8% 4% 46% 14% 34% 29% 44% 28% 32% 15% 7% 1% 1% 4% 15% 8% 5% 4% 26% 25% 53% 22% 48% NDP Voters Liberal voters Conservative Voters Green voters* BQ voters* Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green No 2nd Choice Liberal voters tend to have NDP as their 2nd choice and vice-versa. Conservative voters are most likely to have no 2nd choice at all
  8. 8. 8Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 26% 20% 11% 30% 27% 53% 22% 34% 32% 52% 24% 43% 23% 34% 29% 41% 16% 36% 19% 19% 34% 4% 15% 8% 7% 5% 9% 11% 5% 9% Total Atlantic* QC ON Man/Sask* Alberta* BC* Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) - *NB: small sample size Vote intention – By region NDP leads in Quebec; Conservatives lead in Alberta; Liberals are slightly ahead in Ontario
  9. 9. 9Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) Vote intention – By gender 26% 30% 21% 34% 36% 32% 29% 24% 34% 4% 3% 4% 8% 7% 9% Total Men Women Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Liberal support skews heavily female. Conservatives and to a lesser extent the NDP do better among men
  10. 10. 10Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) Vote intention – By age 26% 16% 20% 28% 37% 34% 42% 37% 33% 25% 29% 30% 29% 27% 29% 4% 0% 5% 5% 3% 8% 12% 9% 5% 6% Total 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green The “age gap” is stark. NDP support skews young; Conservative support skews old.
  11. 11. 11Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725)) Vote intention – By education level 26% 28% 27% 30% 22% 34% 20% 25% 32% 42% 29% 37% 33% 24% 29% 4% 0% 5% 5% 2% 8% 13% 10% 8% 5% Total Less than high school High school College/Some Univ University degree Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Education has become a key predictor of vote intention: The more educated people are, the more likely to vote NDP
  12. 12. 12Federal Vote Intention – September 2015 Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) Vote intention – By household income level 26% 21% 19% 23% 19% 33% 34% 32% 37% 38% 38% 32% 29% 29% 33% 22% 31% 29% 4% 4% 2% 5% 7% 1% 8% 13% 8% 11% 5% 4% Total <$30K $30K - <$50K $50K - <$80K $80K - <$100K $100K+ Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green Conservative support is stronger among those with high incomes. NDP and Liberal support is quite flat across income bands
  13. 13. 1313 Derek Leebosh Vice President, Public Affairs Environics Research Group Ltd. Derek.leebosh@environics.ca 416-969-2817 www.environics.ca

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