Dr Janet Stephenson, leader of the Energy Cultures 2 research project, gave this presentation on the findings of the Transport Delphi study at the National Energy Research Institute conference in Wellington, March 20-21, 2014.

1. Efficiency gains
through transport transitions:
Perspectives of international experts
Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins,
Adam Doering, Alaric McCarthy
University of Otago
NERI Energy Conference 20-21 March 2014
Photo: Dave Pearce

2. Why is change needed?
Inefficiency
• Energy use per capita for road transport is 20%
above OECD average
• High proportion of private car use
• High energy use per tonne-km in freight
• Depressing productivity
Emissions
• Particulate emissions
• GHG emissions from road transport

3. Transport-related emissions
John Williams: Compiled from MBIE Energy Use data file

4. NZ’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2011
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
SectorGHGemissionspercapita(tonneCO2-e)
Based on data for 2011 from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment,
“Energy Greenhouse Emissions 2012 Calendar year Edition” (2013) and Ministry
of Economic Development, “New Zealand Energy Data File” (2012).

5. Drivers of change in transport
– global factors
1. What is happening globally that might
shape NZ’s future transport?
2. How NZ could respond to / take
advantage of these opportunities?

6. Research process
Delphi: An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing
together expert opinions on complex topics
Panel of invited experts: (all international but 3)
Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4),
consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).
Fields of expertise included: renewable energy,
transport policy, demand modelling, material
technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour

7. Inefficient
mobility
Efficient
mobility
Personal mobility

8. Mobility
largely
reliant on
inefficient
private cars
run on fossil
fuels
Mobility largely
reliant on private
cars but more
efficient use of
fossil fuels
Mobility
with low use
of private
cars
Mobility largely
reliant on private
cars using non-
fossil fuels
Personal mobility

9. Private
cars,
inefficient
use of
fossil fuels
Private cars,
efficient use of
fossil fuels
low use of
private
cars
Private cars,
non-fossil fuels
Personal mobility of the
future?

10. Private
cars,
inefficient
use of
fossil fuels

11. Private cars,
non-fossil fuels
Private cars,
efficient use of
fossil fuels

12. Private cars,
efficient use of
fossil fuels

13. Private cars,
non-fossil fuels

14. Private cars,
efficient use of
fossil fuels
Private
cars,
inefficient
use of
fossil fuels
Private cars,
non-fossil fuels

15. Mobility
with low use
of private
cars
low use of
private
cars

16. It’s complicated!
System Dynamics modelling - showing systemic basis
of priority given to private vehicles

17. Potential shocks
Likelihood of occurring within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm
2
3
4 51
1
2
4
5
D
F
H
G
J
I
K
High – High:
A: Political instability in oil-rich
countries
B: Breakthrough in cheap
battery/storage technologies
C: Surge in public and political
concern about climate change
High likelihood of occurring
within 10 yrs:
Low potential to transform
D: Geopolitical interventions in
oil-rich countries
E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as
readily as expected
High potential to transform
Low likelihood of occurring in 10
yrs:
F: Global price on carbon
G: Acute resource scarcity
H: Significant global economic decline
E
Low - Low:
I: Political instability in China and/or
India
J: Readily available oil sources found
K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion
A
B
C

18. Change Trends
Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years
1 = low, 5 = high
PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm
2
3
4 51
1
2
4
5
G
J I
K
High – High:
A : Increasing investment in public transport
B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies
C: Increasing public environmental concern
D: Uptake of efficient cars
E: Uptake of electric vehicles
F: Uptake of active transport
High likelihood of becoming widespread
Low potential to transform
I: Decreasing youth car ownership
J: Uptake of shared personal transport
K: Decreasing youth car licensing
High potential to transform
Low likelihood of becoming
widespread:
G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles
H: Substantial reduction in VKT
B
D
E A
C
F
H

19. Material
culture
PracticesNorms
Transport
Culture
Changing transport cultures
Do
Have
Think

20. Changes in material culture…
Material
culture
PracticesNorms

21. Changes in practices…
Material
culture
PracticesNorms

22. Changes in norms…
Material
culture
PracticesNorms

23. Material
culture
PracticesNorms
Transition
Material
culture
PracticesNorms

24. Next step ... NZ Delphi
How might NZ respond to these circumstances?
What could NZ’s future transport system look
like?

25. With many thanks to our funders...