Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Efficiency gains through transport transitions perspectives of international experts

749 views

Published on

Dr Janet Stephenson, leader of the Energy Cultures 2 research project, gave this presentation on the findings of the Transport Delphi study at the National Energy Research Institute conference in Wellington, March 20-21, 2014.

Published in: Science, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Efficiency gains through transport transitions perspectives of international experts

  1. 1. Efficiency gains through transport transitions: Perspectives of international experts Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering, Alaric McCarthy University of Otago NERI Energy Conference 20-21 March 2014 Photo: Dave Pearce
  2. 2. Why is change needed? Inefficiency • Energy use per capita for road transport is 20% above OECD average • High proportion of private car use • High energy use per tonne-km in freight • Depressing productivity Emissions • Particulate emissions • GHG emissions from road transport
  3. 3. Transport-related emissions John Williams: Compiled from MBIE Energy Use data file
  4. 4. NZ’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2011 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 SectorGHGemissionspercapita(tonneCO2-e) Based on data for 2011 from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, “Energy Greenhouse Emissions 2012 Calendar year Edition” (2013) and Ministry of Economic Development, “New Zealand Energy Data File” (2012).
  5. 5. Drivers of change in transport – global factors 1. What is happening globally that might shape NZ’s future transport? 2. How NZ could respond to / take advantage of these opportunities?
  6. 6. Research process Delphi: An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics Panel of invited experts: (all international but 3) Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1). Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour
  7. 7. Inefficient mobility Efficient mobility Personal mobility
  8. 8. Mobility largely reliant on inefficient private cars run on fossil fuels Mobility largely reliant on private cars but more efficient use of fossil fuels Mobility with low use of private cars Mobility largely reliant on private cars using non- fossil fuels Personal mobility
  9. 9. Private cars, inefficient use of fossil fuels Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels low use of private cars Private cars, non-fossil fuels Personal mobility of the future?
  10. 10. Private cars, inefficient use of fossil fuels
  11. 11. Private cars, non-fossil fuels Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels
  12. 12. Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels
  13. 13. Private cars, non-fossil fuels
  14. 14. Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels Private cars, inefficient use of fossil fuels Private cars, non-fossil fuels
  15. 15. Mobility with low use of private cars low use of private cars
  16. 16. It’s complicated! System Dynamics modelling - showing systemic basis of priority given to private vehicles
  17. 17. Potential shocks Likelihood of occurring within 10 years 1 = low, 5 = high PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm 2 3 4 51 1 2 4 5 D F H G J I K High – High: A: Political instability in oil-rich countries B: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologies C: Surge in public and political concern about climate change High likelihood of occurring within 10 yrs: Low potential to transform D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countries E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected High potential to transform Low likelihood of occurring in 10 yrs: F: Global price on carbon G: Acute resource scarcity H: Significant global economic decline E Low - Low: I: Political instability in China and/or India J: Readily available oil sources found K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion A B C
  18. 18. Change Trends Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years 1 = low, 5 = high PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm 2 3 4 51 1 2 4 5 G J I K High – High: A : Increasing investment in public transport B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies C: Increasing public environmental concern D: Uptake of efficient cars E: Uptake of electric vehicles F: Uptake of active transport High likelihood of becoming widespread Low potential to transform I: Decreasing youth car ownership J: Uptake of shared personal transport K: Decreasing youth car licensing High potential to transform Low likelihood of becoming widespread: G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles H: Substantial reduction in VKT B D E A C F H
  19. 19. Material culture PracticesNorms Transport Culture Changing transport cultures Do Have Think
  20. 20. Changes in material culture… Material culture PracticesNorms
  21. 21. Changes in practices… Material culture PracticesNorms
  22. 22. Changes in norms… Material culture PracticesNorms
  23. 23. Material culture PracticesNorms Transition Material culture PracticesNorms
  24. 24. Next step ... NZ Delphi How might NZ respond to these circumstances? What could NZ’s future transport system look like?
  25. 25. With many thanks to our funders...

×