SPREAD 2050: Day 1 Results, Counting Backwards
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SPREAD 2050: Day 1 Results, Counting Backwards

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Counting Backwards Workshop, 24–25 Nov 2011 / the Helsinki meeting of 60 experts in SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050. ...

Counting Backwards Workshop, 24–25 Nov 2011 / the Helsinki meeting of 60 experts in SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050.

www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu &
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/community

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Transcript

  • 1. Day 1 Results
  • 2. Day 1 Results– A test track for our current knowledge onsustainable lifestyles: what could emerge fromcurrent promising practices.
  • 3. Day 1 Results– A test track for our current knowledge onsustainable lifestyles: what could emerge fromcurrent promising practices.– 4 scenario narratives on future ofsustainable lifestyles.
  • 4. Day 1 Results– A test track for our current knowledge onsustainable lifestyles: what could emerge fromcurrent promising practices.– 4 scenario narratives on future ofsustainable lifestyles.– Expert information to be used in the4 scenarios.
  • 5. Your brief for the workshop Y are here ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 6. Your brief for the workshop Sustainable lifestyles have emerged as a relevant option to choose. Y are here ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 7. Your brief for the workshop Sustainable lifestyles have emerged as a relevant option to choose.But are they the right onesfrom the perspective of 2050? Y are here ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 8. Your brief for the workshop Sustainable lifestyles have emerged as a relevant option to choose.But are they the right onesfrom the perspective of 2050? We are exploring how promising Y are here practices can spread, what else is needed and whether the current ones are relevant. ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 9. LOCAL LOOPS
  • 10. LOCAL LOOPSThe world is built bottom-up by skillful communities. Global interaction between people is mediated, not directed. Some institutions remain global. Localprofessional guilds are both the innovation system and the environmental agent.Cities have changed from consumption units to self-sustaining ones. Emphasis is on user-centric design that produces smart and creative local solutions.Embedded, locally sensitive intelligence enables the economic system to decouple.Merit is not based on hierarchy, but on skills that contribute to the society. Workbecomes meaningful and a source of pride. Interlinkages btw people are based on sharing skills. Time banks emerge as skills are shared. Local technologies enforce mutual respect among members of the community. Local loops is a society of craftsmen and craftswomen.
  • 11. How did we get here?2015: OIL CRISIS HITS forcing the governments to rationing consumption. Use of private cars is restricted. People living in remote areas are most affected. Panic spreads around the world causing restlessness. US troops are at the border of Saudi-Arabia in 2016. Lack of resources brings about innovation.Through the rise of energy prices eating, living and mobility become more expensive. Locally designed sustainablesolutions around energy intensive consumption areas start to emerge in the 20’s. Value chains of the communities are changing rapidly. In 2030‘s existing building stock starts to find new forms. Facilities ofassemblence and reassemblance occur.Tracing systems of material, assemblance and tools enable local businesses to flourish.
  • 12. KEY QUESTIONS How has the division of labour evolved? What are the value chains? What drives innovation?What makes people understand each other?
  • 13. Can interest groups take care of the commons?
  • 14. Hobby groups have turned to interest groups that formthe superpowers of Europe. They affect to referendumsheavily by lobbying and strong PR engines.The global monetary system has split in two: local systemworks without money, but covers quite big part of theeconomy. Global monetary system has more than onecurrency as energy and emissions has emerged ascurrencies that are transformable to money.Cities have two layers. The role of physicalinfrastructure has diminished as the technologicalimprovements are taking the main role. The apartments aresmaller and there is lesser need for transportation.Technological tools are used in educational purposes tospread peer-to-peer information. There will also be quickchanges in official curriculums of European schools.
  • 15. Major events2040: The first major conflict between different interestgroups.2025: Mobility car acquires Mercedes Benz.2025: The local non-monetary systems have found theirshape.2015: Communities of young people start to share urbanfarms, cars, kitchens thus affording everyday luxury.2015: Kids are provided cognitive tools that will enablemore ethical decisions.
  • 16. Questions to be discussed • How public spending will be turned to support the idea of commons? • How the local currency will emerge? • What are the major drivers changing upbringing in schools and homes? (Value change, motivation) • Where are the biggest emission reductions found at 2025 and 2050.
  • 17. Empathic Communities
  • 18. Empathic CommunitiesEmpathic Communities are societies in which people recycle resources in local local loops, publicand private space is used as dynamically as possible according to needs, and people think of accessand experiences in sense of what is meaningful.Happiness is based on experiences and possibilities for access rather than materials andsalaries. Nation states are old-fashioned and big cities like the Greater Villages Area ofHelsinki and the League of Municipalities in Catalunya communicate in global sphere tomake world-wide actions possible.Car use has diminished and the space that was used by private transportation structures isnow made public and used for food production etc. People exchange goods and serviceslocally and everyone’s needs are provided for. Everything is transparent which means thatpeople feel responsible e.g. about food as they know its producers, distributors andpreparers. Living spaces are built based on peoples’ needs and people actively participate indecision making within their local area.
  • 19. How We Got Here?In 2015 we have best practices as niche lifestyles that form ground formainstream behavior later on: time banks, urban farming etc. Decade laterthese earlier “hobbies” form ground for the rise of empathy after the greatcollapse.During 2017 the price of cereal rise 4-fold within six months. The chain ofresource crises starts.Global economic system collapses in 2025: constant financial crises turns outto be the perfect storm that lets people see local possibilities that are alreadythere.Rise of EmpathyWorld Cup for footballing cities is held for the first time in 2031 incelebration of the rise municipalities as the driver of sustainable lifestyles.Each city has its own specific playing style. In comparison to 2020, happiness in 2040 Europe-wide has risen while hoursspent working for necessities drops.In 2042 the concept of supermunicipalities emerges: cities that produce theirown food and energy and consist of multiple different living environments inwhich resources are recycled.
  • 20. KEY QUESTIONS?How has the division of labour evolved?How is value built in 2050?How to overcome the tragedy of the commons?How can we combine efficiency with human-centrism?What makes the rise of empathy possible after the great economic collapse in2025?
  • 21. Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Instead of capital people own Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, expertise. ”I want to learn, not earn”. and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. The world is mastered by champions Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind operates within one techno-economic system, with highly – people whom master themselves. standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent Life is hectic and tiring. and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open Power lies with ability to learn and You have but one choice, and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies transform oneself. and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- be motivated or controlled. sible.cy Many enterprises circle around provision of resources. Local loops representative, but strict in taxing ”bad habits”. Democracy remains The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. Everything isSome institutions –and as science – remain global. transparent such calculated. Companies are valued inDifferent areas command different economicnottechnological multiple measures and can and hide anything. systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions.
  • 22. Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite Champions The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Instead of capital people own Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, expertise. ”I want to learn, not earn”. and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. The world is mastered by champions Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind operates within one techno-economic system, with highly – people whom master themselves. standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent Life is hectic and tiring. and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open Power lies with ability to learn and You have but one choice, and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies transform oneself. and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- be motivated or controlled. sible.cy Many enterprises circle around provision of resources. Local loops representative, but strict in taxing ”bad habits”. Democracy remains The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. Everything isSome institutions –and as science – remain global. transparent such calculated. Companies are valued inDifferent areas command different economicnottechnological multiple measures and can and hide anything. systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions.
  • 23. Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. Lifestyle Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind operates within one techno-economic system, with highly •Universities and Holiday Clubs merge standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent •Insect restaurant get 3 Michelin Stars and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- sible.cy Boring stuff •New EU-formed on new industries (not steel and coal) Local loops •Massive open-data infrastructure The world is build bottom-up by the best 2015. investments in engineers. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. Some institutions – such as science – remain global. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions.
  • 24. Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite Champions The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. Lifestyle Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind operates within one techno-economic system, with highly •Universities and Holiday Clubs merge standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent •Insect restaurant get 3 Michelin Stars and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- sible.cy Boring stuff •New EU-formed on new industries (not steel and coal) Local loops •Massive open-data infrastructure The world is build bottom-up by the best 2015. investments in engineers. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. Some institutions – such as science – remain global. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions.
  • 25. What we still need in order have4 logical and coherent scenarios ? Y are here ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 26. What we still need in order have4 logical and coherent scenarios ? 1) To understand what is the role of the current national democratic systems. Y are here ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 27. What we still need in order have4 logical and coherent scenarios ? 1) To understand what is the role of the current national democratic systems. 2) To understand how public services and public spending could contribute in creating sustainable Y are here lifestyles. ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2
  • 28. What we still need in order have4 logical and coherent scenarios ? 1) To understand what is the role of the current national democratic systems. 2) To understand how public services and public spending could contribute in creating sustainable Y are here lifestyles. 3) To understand the wider consequences of endemic technological system. ou 2050... 2040.... 2025...20 .. 15 ..2