2012 By Dr alok jain

1. ASPIRING FOR DELHI
A need for vision-based planning
Alok Jain
January 30, 2012

2. Background
 MVA along with RITES & TERI completed a study titled
TRANSPORT DEMAND FORECAST & DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INTEGRATED MULTI-MODAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK
FOR NCT of DELHI
 Development of a Transport Demand Forecast Model and
Identification of Public Transport Network to meet the city demand by
2021 & beyond
 Preliminary Feasibility of the Public Transport Network, Strategic
Energy cum Environmental Impact Analysis and and
Economic/Financial Appraisal

3. TRAFFIC AND TRAVEL
CHARACTERISTICS

4. PRIMARY TRAFFIC & TRAVEL SURVEYS
• CLASSIFIED TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEYS AT SCREEN LINE (89) AND MID
BLOCK (61) LOCATIONS
• ROADSIDE O-D SURVEYS ALONG CLASSIFED VOLUME SURVEYS (20
LOCATIONS)
• METRO PASSENGER OPINION SURVEY (5000 SAMPLES)
• RAIL TERMINAL SURVEY (20 stations)
• BUS TERMINAL SURVEY (10 terminals)
• PARKING SURVEY (100 STRETCHES)
• ROAD NETWORK INVENTORY (2368 KM)
• WORK CENTRE SURVEY (10000 SAMPLES)
• HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL SURVEY (45000 HOUSEHOLDS)

5. METRO PASSENGER CHARACTERISTICS
• 75% OF METRO PASSENGERS ARE MOTOR VEHICLE OWNERS
• 60% OF METRO PASSENGERS ARE DAILY USERS
• 96% OF USERS TAKE MAXIMUM OF 15 MINUTES TO REACH METRO STATION
• EARLIER MODES OF METRO USERS – BUS (44%), TW (25%) AND CAR (22%)
• METRO USER SAVES 17 MINUTES PER JOURNEY
• FOR 52% OF PASSENGERS BOTH ORIGIN AND DESTINATION LIE ON METRO CORRIDOR
• MODE TO REACH METRO STATION - 61% WALK, 12% CR, 11% 2W, 5% BY BUSES AND 3%
BY CARS
• REASONS FOR USING METRO
• TIME SAVING -- 39%
• COMFORTABLE JOURNEY -- 34%
• SAVINGS IN COST -- 18%
• SAFETY -- 4%

6. ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS
• ROAD NETWORK -- 2368 KM
• 391 KM OF ROAD WITH 6 LANE OR MORE
• 560 KM ROAD WITH 4 LANE & 11% OF ROAD WITH SERVICE LANE
• 60% OF ROAD WITH FOOTPATH. HOWEVER QUALITY GENERALLY NOT GOOD
• GRADE SEPARATORS AVAILABLE IN DELHI
FLYOVERS -- 46
ROB -- 33
RUB -- 17
RIVER BRIDGES -- 7

7. ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS
• AVERAGE PEAK JOURNEY SPEED -- 22.2 KMPH
• AVERAGE OFF-PEAK JOURNEY SPEED -- 26.0 KMPH
• AVERAGE PEAK RUNNING SPEED -- 27.7 KMPH
• AVERAGE OFF-PEAK RUNNING SPEED -- 30.8 KMPH
• TRAFFIC SIGNALS ACCOUNTS FOR 63% OF DELAYS.

8. HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL SURVEY
• 1.5% SAMPLE DRAWN (45000 HOUSEHOLD)
• AVG HH SIZE : 4.5
• AVG HH INCOME : Rs 15,369

9. VEHICLE OWNERSHIP IN DELHI
VEHICLE OWNED % OF HOUSEHOLDS
•CAR
- 1 16.4
- 2 2.9
- 3 0.5
≥4 0.1
TOTAL 19.9
•2W
- 1 37.7
- 2 5.1
- 3 0.5
≥4 0.1
TOTAL 43.4
•NO MOTOR VEHICLE 47.9
•BICYCLE 18.7

10. MODAL SPLIT
MODE % of PERSON TRIPS
WITH WALK WITHOUT WALK WITHOUT WALK
TRIPS (2007-08) TRIPS (2007-08) TRIPS (2001)
CAR/TAXI 9.02 13.73 10.3
2W 14.0 21.32 17.2
AUTO RICKSHAW 2.29 3.49 3.1
BUS 26.92 40.97 59.8
METRO 2.39 3.63 -
TRAIN (IR) 0.38 0.58 0.7
BICYCLE 4.34 6.60 5.3
CYCLE RICKSHAW 6.36 9.68 3.6
WALK 34.30 - -
TOTAL 100 100 100
TOTAL TRIPS/DAY 230.19 LAKH 151.23 LAKH

11. EXISTING AND FUTURE
LANDUSE PARAMETERS

12. DEMOGRAPHICS
• TOTAL 2001 POPULATION OF DELHI - 13.9 Mil (2.8 Mil HH)
• BASE YEAR (2007) POPULATION – 16.7 Mil, 3.3 Mil HH
PARAMETERS 2007-08 2021
POPULATION 167 Lakh 243 Lakh
EMPLOYMENT 56 Lakh 94 Lakh
STUDENT 43 Lakh 62 Lakh
ENROLMENT

13. Proposed Land Use 2021

14. THE TRANSPORT MODEL

15. Model Structure
• CUBE used for transport demand modeling and forecasting
• Traditional four stage transportation model, plus Vehicle Availability
(VA) model:
ZONING SYSTEM LANDUSE AND ROAD AND PUBLIC
SOCIOECONOMIC TRANSPORT
DATA NETWORKS
TRIP GENERATION HOW MANY TRIPS?
BY TYPE
TRIP DISTRIBUTION WHAT IS THE
PATTERN OF TRIP
MAKING?
MODAL SPLIT WHICH MODE OF
TRANSPORT IS
USED?
ASSIGNMENTS WHICH ROUTE IS
TAKEN?

16. What’s Wrong?
• Trend-based planning
• No land-use transport optimisation
• Inherent assumption that people shall not
change
• Behavioral

17. What is to be done?
I know not what is to be done about those who do not say, “what is to be done? What
is to be done?” - Confucious
• Vision-based planning
• Land-use budgets based on transport
infrastructure – inclusive planning
• Engineer – Educate – Enforce
• Aspirational

18. Government
National / Regional /
Local
Individual Society
What we expect from
Self-interest
others?

19. THANKS