Urban growth trends in the
Upper Delaware Basin, 19842030
Dr. Claire A. Jantz
Available at: http://webspace.ship.edu/cajant/research_upper_delaware.html
The SLEUTH model
•Developed by Keith Clarke (UCSB),
sponsored by the USGS Urban Dynamics
•Widely used, well-established
Input data sets
• Urban time series
• 1984, 1995, 2005
• Derived from Landsat satellite images
• Development likelihood (exclusion/attraction
• Identifies lands that are:
• Completely protected from development
• Less likely to be developed
• More likely to be developed
In NJ, buffers of 300 ft were applied to category 1 streams, 150 ft for
trout maintenance streams, and 50 ft buffers on all other streams.
Wetlands were buffered by 100 ft.
In NY, streams and wetlands were buffered by 100 ft.
In PA, streams and wetlands were buffered by 50 ft.
How much growth will there be in the future?
We developed three
“reasonable” growth rate
Area of urban land cover (km2)
And assumed different land use
• Scenarios were developed collaboratively with
stakeholder input (i.e. NPS, DRBC, county and
municipal planning offices)
• Baseline/business as usual
• Smart growth
• Focus growth into county-designated growth areas, around transit
stations, and strengthen protection on natural resources.
• Best for resource protection
• Start with smart growth, but expand and strengthen protection on
• Limited planning/limited protection
• Start with baseline, but weaken protection on natural resources
and encourage “sprawl” development.