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Data collection in difficult environments:measuring economic recovery in post-        conflict Bougainville               ...
Three messages1. Data for policymaking absent in most post-   conflict situations2. This deficiency undermines capacity to...
Papua New Guinea – Where?
2500                                     Per Capita Income by Province in Papua New Guinea (1983)200015001000 500   0     ...
Economic impact of the conflict                                                         Toniva, KietaPanguna, in 1989, acc...
Evidence of a rebound in economic activity: By how much?  Rebound in the economy! How much?                               ...
Gold smeltingThe Gold Smelter                     The product Approx. 2Kg smelted per week @ $57/gram = $114,000.
Green gold!
Access to basic servicesPrivate versus public provision of basic services
The Research Team: Well Trained Locals
Survey locations
Survey Sites: Arawa                               Pre-crisis # houses: 1850                               Post-crisis (02/...
Data collected on•   Income – how much and source?•   Investments – age and types of housing?•   Own or rent house?•   Acc...
Interview in progress                 21/02/2011
Table 1: Summary statisticsVariable                         Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min        MaxAge of household head        ...
Table 2: Population distribution by age        Age group                              Females                 Males       ...
Table 3: Zero years of schooling                                                        Number of        Number of        ...
Figure 2: Highest schooling for 20+ yr population              150                                                        ...
Investments: Three types of houses! Material = 1          Material = 3
Construction activity over time-              4              3                    Buka & SelauFrequency              2    ...
Preliminary findings1. Approx half of urban population < 20yrs of age.2. One in three urban children of 6~10yrs not in sch...
Fun of fieldwork in difficult environments
Conclusions1. Data can be collected in difficult environments.2. Involvement of local authorities crucial for   success.3....
Satish Chand - Data collection in difficult environments:measuring economic recovery in post-conflict Bougainville
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Satish Chand - Data collection in difficult environments:measuring economic recovery in post-conflict Bougainville

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Satish Chand's presentation at CMIS11.

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  • Create both a snapshot as the baseline for future comparisonsAnd a time profile on key variables.
  • The slide that shocks Bougainvilleans most!They ask where are we now?They ask how far did we fall?NSP popln 1980 Census = 125,506Estimated total population for Buka &amp; Mainland in 2010: 260~300K.Estimated households: 50KAssumed population growth rate: 2.5~3.0 percent Naional Census conducted in July 2011 but with limited coverage of Bougainville (&amp; PNG).
  • Snapshot as of February 2011
  • Snapshot as of February 2011
  • Time profile on access to primary schoolingOne 27 year old in Year 10 in Buin High School
  • Transcript of "Satish Chand - Data collection in difficult environments:measuring economic recovery in post-conflict Bougainville"

    1. 1. Data collection in difficult environments:measuring economic recovery in post- conflict Bougainville Satish Chand UNSW@ADFA
    2. 2. Three messages1. Data for policymaking absent in most post- conflict situations2. This deficiency undermines capacity to ‘prevent, prepare for, and respond to disasters’ (APCOE mission)3. The data deficiency can be addressed.
    3. 3. Papua New Guinea – Where?
    4. 4. 2500 Per Capita Income by Province in Papua New Guinea (1983)200015001000 500 0 Central Gulf EHP ENB Enga Oro Madang NIP NCD Manus WNB Morobe NSP Milne Bay WHP SHP West Sepik Chimbu East Sepik Western Papua Highlands Momase Islands Region
    5. 5. Economic impact of the conflict Toniva, KietaPanguna, in 1989, accounted for: • 45 percent of PNG’s export income; • 17 percent of internally generated govt. revenues; and, • 12 percent of GDP.At the height of conflict, one third (approx. 70K) of population were in care centres.
    6. 6. Evidence of a rebound in economic activity: By how much? Rebound in the economy! How much? 26/02/2011
    7. 7. Gold smeltingThe Gold Smelter The product Approx. 2Kg smelted per week @ $57/gram = $114,000.
    8. 8. Green gold!
    9. 9. Access to basic servicesPrivate versus public provision of basic services
    10. 10. The Research Team: Well Trained Locals
    11. 11. Survey locations
    12. 12. Survey Sites: Arawa Pre-crisis # houses: 1850 Post-crisis (02/2011) #: 74023/02/2011
    13. 13. Data collected on• Income – how much and source?• Investments – age and types of housing?• Own or rent house?• Access to basic services • Education/Health? • Water • Telephone • Electricity • Toilets • TV
    14. 14. Interview in progress 21/02/2011
    15. 15. Table 1: Summary statisticsVariable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min MaxAge of household head 181 45 11 20 81Male household head 181 58% 0.49 0 1Moved house due to conflict 179 30% 0.46 0 1Number of people per house 181 5.70 3.03 1 16Number of males per house 180 2.85 1.76 0 9Number of dependents per house 179 1.78 1.70 0 8Number in school per house 179 1.89 1.84 0 8Proportion owning house 181 56% 0.50 0 1Year house built 112 1996 13.77 1960 2011Weekly household income 180 416 317 <100 >1000
    16. 16. Table 2: Population distribution by age Age group Females Males percent Cum % 1yr -5yrs 50 53 10.2% 10.2% 6yrs - 10yrs 53 58 10.9% 21.1% 11yrs - 15 yrs 55 74 12.7% 33.8% 16yrs - 20yrs 81 59 13.8% 47.6% 21yrs-25yrs 61 55 11.4% 59.1% 26yrs - 30yrs 42 42 8.3% 67.4% 31yrs - 35 yrs 41 38 7.8% 75.1% 36yrs - 40yrs 26 23 4.8% 80.0% 41yrs - 45yrs 24 21 4.4% 84.4% 46yrs - 50yrs 30 26 5.5% 89.9% 51yrs+ 49 53 10.1% 100.0%Calculated from a total population of 1,014 individuals made up of 502 males and 512 females from the 181 households surveyed.NSO Census 2000, table 1.6 North Solomons Urban Population less than 15 years = 34.8 percent (rural = 43.8%).
    17. 17. Table 3: Zero years of schooling Number of Number of Proportion w/o Birth year Females Males schooling 1982 or earlier 6 0 2% Between 1983 and1991 2 2 2% Between 1992 and 2005 12 33 13%Notes: 35 percent of those between 6 and 10 years of age as of 2011 were not in school => displacement ofyoung by older children in primary schools.Source: Calculated from survey of 181 households comprising 911 individuals born in or before 2005 from Arawa, Buka, Buin and Selau (data collected in February 2011).
    18. 18. Figure 2: Highest schooling for 20+ yr population 150 117 103 100Frequency 77 58 50 25 24 22 16 16 16 14 11 10 10 8 5 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 Yschool Pr(6 year-old completing Year 12) = 11 percent!
    19. 19. Investments: Three types of houses! Material = 1 Material = 3
    20. 20. Construction activity over time- 4 3 Buka & SelauFrequency 2 1 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ybuilt
    21. 21. Preliminary findings1. Approx half of urban population < 20yrs of age.2. One in three urban children of 6~10yrs not in school3. Per capita income for urban Bougainville = K3,863 at 2010 prices (or K783 at 1983 prices).4. Large regional disparities in rates of and prospects for economic growth5. Ex-combatants turned entrepreneurs in post- conflict Bougainville – a growing constituency for peace.
    22. 22. Fun of fieldwork in difficult environments
    23. 23. Conclusions1. Data can be collected in difficult environments.2. Involvement of local authorities crucial for success.3. Costs of data collection are high - sampling and a staggered approach to surveys.4. Honesty/transparency/publicity helps with fieldwork.5. Local graduate students are invaluable for all of the above!
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