KCM Divided into Three Sections
Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate experts and
investment & mark...
3.6%
7.9%
-5.8%
4.7% 4.7%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Pre-Bubble
(1987-1999)
Bubble
(Jan '00-Ma...
Projected Percentage Increase
Home Price Expectation Survey
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
Cumulative Appreciation by 2017
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
Percentage Appreciation by Survey
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
Distressed Property Numbers Diving
Distressed inventories have fallen
14.4% so far this year
Completed foreclosures are
do...
CoreLogic 7/2013
Foreclosure Inventory by State
What Housing
Bubble?
“Rising home prices have swept
the country…However, these
runaway price gains won’t
last: both rising mortgage
rates and s...
6.00 $ 1,079 $ 1,109 $ 1,139 $ 1,169 $ 1,199
5.75 $ 1,050 $ 1,080 $ 1,109 $ 1,138 $ 1,167
5.50 $ 1,022 $ 1,050 $ 1,079 $ 1...
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 2,158 $ 2,218 $ 2,278 $ 2,338 $ 2,398
5.75 $ 2,100 $ 2,160 $ 2,218 $ 2,276 $ 2,334
5.50 $ ...
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 3,237 $ 3,328 $ 3,417 $ 3,507 $ 3,597
5.75 $ 3,151 $ 3,239 $ 3,326 $ 3,414 $ 3,501
5.50 $ ...
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 4,317 $ 4,437 $ 4,557 $ 4,676 $ 4,796
5.75 $ 4,201 $ 4,318 $ 4,435 $ 4,552 $ 4,669
5.50 $ ...
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 5,396 $ 5,546 $ 5,696 $ 5,846 $ 5,996
5.75 $ 5,252 $ 5,398 $ 5,544 $ 5,690 $ 5,836
5.50 $ ...
Calculated Risk 7/2013
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
1/2012 – 7/2013
Federal Reserve 7/2013
Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
3Q 2014
Fannie Mae 5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors 4.8%
Freddie Mac 5.1%
...
Date Price
Interest
Rate
P&I
Last Year $400,000 3.5% $1,796.18
This Year $420,000 4.5% $2,128.08
Difference in Payment - $...
Rate $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000
6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75
5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,7...
$2,812.47
$1,715.63
$1,471.66
$1,266.71
1983
1993
2003
2013
Monthly payment on a
$250,000
MORTGAGE
(Principal & Interest)
Number of BUYERS out
of 100 WILLING TO bid
OVER asking price
1-5%over asking price
10+%6-10%over asking price over asking ...
Migration Patterns
www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
41.7
20.9
-7.9
56.1
-30
0
30
60
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – July 2013
MSN Money, Case Shiller 7/2013
Return ...
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Pending Home Sales
NAR 7/20...
80
90
100
110
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
January 2012 – December 2012
100 = Histor...
NAR 7/2013
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Percentage of D...
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Ma...
S&P Case Shiller 7/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
MARKETING
Opening Doors with
POWERFUL
MARKETING
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – July 2013
41.7%
20.9%
-7.9%
56.1%
Dow Jones S&P
NASDAQ
Real Estate
MSN Money, Case Shi...
3.6%
7.9%
4.7%4.7%
Average Annual
APPRECIATION
-5.8%
Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE RECOVERY
TO DATE
PROJECTED
NOW to 2017
BUST
Home Pr...
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2017
19.4%
35%
23.7%
13.1%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls Be...
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
PROJECTED
Percentage Appreciation
6.7%
4.2%
3.6% 3.5%
2013
3.4%
2014 2015 2016 2017
“The housing market
has bottomed. It's not
too late to get
involved. I still think
buying a home is the
best investment an...
https://www.facebook.com/SeattleFirstTimeHomeBuyers
https://www.facebook.com/ShaunFarrellRealEstate
http://yournaperville.com/mortgage-rates-and-impact-on-buying-a-
naperville-home-july-2013
XXX
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4-8
Home Price Expectation Survey, Average
Annual Appreciation,...
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
26 Buyers Willing to Bid Over Asking Price http://info.trulia.com/american-dream-survey-s...
The key to
success
is developing
TRUST
Naea 08-13
Naea 08-13
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  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2013.pdf
  • http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2013.pdf
  • http://www.dsnews.com/articles/experts-see-risk-of-housing-bubble-resulting-from-fed-policies-2013-05-07
  • http://info.trulia.com/trulia-price-and-rent-monitors-jun-2013
  • http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
  • http://www.bankrate.com
  • http://info.trulia.com/american-dream-survey-summer-2013
  • http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • http://www.realtor.org
  • https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf
  • http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
  • http://www.cnbc.com/id/100893817
  • https://www.facebook.com/SeattleFirstTimeHomeBuyers
  • https://www.facebook.com/ShaunFarrellRealEstate
  • http://yournaperville.com/mortgage-rates-and-impact-on-buying-a-naperville-home-july-2013
  • Naea 08-13

    1. 1. KCM Divided into Three Sections
    2. 2. Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
    3. 3. 3.6% 7.9% -5.8% 4.7% 4.7% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Pre-Bubble (1987-1999) Bubble (Jan '00-May '07) Bust (June '07-Oct'11) Recovery to Date (Nov '11-June'13 ) Expectations (2013-2017) Average Annual Appreciation Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
    4. 4. Projected Percentage Increase Home Price Expectation Survey Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
    5. 5. Cumulative Appreciation by 2017 Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
    6. 6. Percentage Appreciation by Survey Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
    7. 7. Distressed Property Numbers Diving Distressed inventories have fallen 14.4% so far this year Completed foreclosures are down 20% from last year National foreclosure inventory is down 28% from last year Seriously delinquent loans are down 23.7% from a year ago -14.4% -20% -28% -23.7% CoreLogic 7/2013
    8. 8. CoreLogic 7/2013 Foreclosure Inventory by State
    9. 9. What Housing Bubble?
    10. 10. “Rising home prices have swept the country…However, these runaway price gains won’t last: both rising mortgage rates and slowly growing inventories should start tapping the brakes on home prices, preventing them from rising back into bubble territory.” Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist Trulia 7/2013
    11. 11. 6.00 $ 1,079 $ 1,109 $ 1,139 $ 1,169 $ 1,199 5.75 $ 1,050 $ 1,080 $ 1,109 $ 1,138 $ 1,167 5.50 $ 1,022 $ 1,050 $ 1,079 $ 1,107 $ 1,136 5.25 $ 994 $ 1,022 $ 1,049 $ 1,077 $ 1,104 5.00 $ 966 $ 993 $ 1,020 $ 1,047 $ 1,074 4.75 $ 939 $ 965 $ 991 $ 1,017 $ 1,043 4.50 $ 912 $ 937 $ 963 $ 988 $ 1,013 $ 180,000 $ 185,000 $ 190,000 $ 195,000 $ 200,000 -10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% Buyer’s Purchasing PowerRATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
    12. 12. Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $ 2,158 $ 2,218 $ 2,278 $ 2,338 $ 2,398 5.75 $ 2,100 $ 2,160 $ 2,218 $ 2,276 $ 2,334 5.50 $ 2,044 $ 2,100 $ 2,158 $ 2,214 $ 2,272 5.25 $ 1,988 $ 2,044 $ 2,098 $ 2,154 $ 2,208 5.00 $ 1,932 $ 1,986 $ 2,040 $ 2,094 $ 2,148 4.75 $ 1,878 $ 1,930 $ 1,982 $ 2,034 $ 2,086 4.50 $ 1,824 $ 1,874 $ 1,926 $ 1,976 $ 2,026 $ 360,000 $ 370,000 $ 380,000 $ 390,000 $ 400,000 -10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% RATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
    13. 13. Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $ 3,237 $ 3,328 $ 3,417 $ 3,507 $ 3,597 5.75 $ 3,151 $ 3,239 $ 3,326 $ 3,414 $ 3,501 5.50 $ 3,066 $ 3,151 $ 3,236 $ 3,322 $ 3,407 5.25 $ 2,982 $ 3,065 $ 3,148 $ 3,230 $ 3,313 5.00 $ 2,899 $ 2,979 $ 3,060 $ 3,140 $ 3,221 4.75 $ 2,817 $ 2,895 $ 2,973 $ 3,052 $ 3,130 4.50 $ 2,736 $ 2,812 $ 2,888 $ 2,964 $ 3,040 $ 540,000 $ 555,000 $ 570,000 $ 585,000 $ 600,000 -10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% RATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
    14. 14. Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $ 4,317 $ 4,437 $ 4,557 $ 4,676 $ 4,796 5.75 $ 4,201 $ 4,318 $ 4,435 $ 4,552 $ 4,669 5.50 $ 4,088 $ 4,202 $ 4,315 $ 4,429 $ 4,542 5.25 $ 3,976 $ 4,086 $ 4,197 $ 4,307 $ 4,418 5.00 $ 3,865 $ 3,972 $ 4,080 $ 4,187 $ 4,295 4.75 $ 3,756 $ 3,860 $ 3,965 $ 4,069 $ 4,173 4.50 $ 3,648 $ 3,749 $ 3,851 $ 3,952 $ 4,053 $ 720,000 $ 740,000 $ 760,000 $ 780,000 $ 800,000 -10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% RATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
    15. 15. Buyer’s Purchasing Power 6.00 $ 5,396 $ 5,546 $ 5,696 $ 5,846 $ 5,996 5.75 $ 5,252 $ 5,398 $ 5,544 $ 5,690 $ 5,836 5.50 $ 5,110 $ 5,252 $ 5,394 $ 5,536 $ 5,678 5.25 $ 4,970 $ 5,108 $ 5,246 $ 5,384 $ 5,522 5.00 $ 4,831 $ 4,966 $ 5,100 $ 5,234 $ 5,368 4.75 $ 4,695 $ 4,825 $ 4,956 $ 5,086 $ 5,216 4.50 $ 4,560 $ 4,687 $ 4,814 $ 4,940 $ 5,067 $ 900,000 $ 925,000 $ 950,000 $ 975,000 $ 1,000,000 -10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% RATE Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.
    16. 16. Calculated Risk 7/2013
    17. 17. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History 1/2012 – 7/2013 Federal Reserve 7/2013
    18. 18. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 3Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors 4.8% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.9% 7/2013
    19. 19. Date Price Interest Rate P&I Last Year $400,000 3.5% $1,796.18 This Year $420,000 4.5% $2,128.08 Difference in Payment - $331.90 The Cost of Waiting a Year
    20. 20. Rate $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75 5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,750.72 2,334.29 2,917.86 5.50 567.79 1,135.58 1,703.37 2,271.16 2,838.95 5.25 552.20 1,104.41 1,656.61 2,208.81 2,761.02 5.00 536.82 1,073.64 1,610.46 2,147.29 2,684.11 4.75 521.65 1,043.29 1,564.94 2,086.59 2,608.24 4.50 506.69 1,013.37 1,520.06 2,026.74 2,533.43 Mortgage Payment Differences
    21. 21. $2,812.47 $1,715.63 $1,471.66 $1,266.71 1983 1993 2003 2013 Monthly payment on a $250,000 MORTGAGE (Principal & Interest)
    22. 22. Number of BUYERS out of 100 WILLING TO bid OVER asking price 1-5%over asking price 10+%6-10%over asking price over asking price Trulia 7/2013
    23. 23. Migration Patterns www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
    24. 24. 41.7 20.9 -7.9 56.1 -30 0 30 60 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate January 2000 – July 2013 MSN Money, Case Shiller 7/2013 Return on Investment
    25. 25. 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Pending Home Sales NAR 7/2013 100 = Historically Healthy Level
    26. 26. 80 90 100 110 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2012 2011 January 2012 – December 2012 100 = Historically Healthy Level Pending Home Sales NAR 7/2013
    27. 27. NAR 7/2013 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 15%
    28. 28. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May NAR 7/2013 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
    29. 29. S&P Case Shiller 7/2013 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
    30. 30. MARKETING
    31. 31. Opening Doors with POWERFUL MARKETING
    32. 32. RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – July 2013 41.7% 20.9% -7.9% 56.1% Dow Jones S&P NASDAQ Real Estate MSN Money, Case Shiller
    33. 33. 3.6% 7.9% 4.7%4.7% Average Annual APPRECIATION -5.8% Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE RECOVERY TO DATE PROJECTED NOW to 2017 BUST Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
    34. 34. Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013 Cumulative House Appreciation by 2017 19.4% 35% 23.7% 13.1% Pre-Bubble Trend Bulls BearsAll Projections
    35. 35. Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013 PROJECTED Percentage Appreciation 6.7% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 2013 3.4% 2014 2015 2016 2017
    36. 36. “The housing market has bottomed. It's not too late to get involved. I still think buying a home is the best investment any individual can make. Affordability is still at an all-time high. Buy a home and, if you can, buy a second home.” John Paulson
    37. 37. https://www.facebook.com/SeattleFirstTimeHomeBuyers
    38. 38. https://www.facebook.com/ShaunFarrellRealEstate
    39. 39. http://yournaperville.com/mortgage-rates-and-impact-on-buying-a- naperville-home-july-2013
    40. 40. XXX
    41. 41. Resources KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM Slide Slide Title Link 4-8 Home Price Expectation Survey, Average Annual Appreciation, Cumulative Appreciation by 2017, Percentage Appreciation by Survey https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php 9 Distressed Property Numbers Diving http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2013.pdf 10 Foreclosure Inventory by State http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2013.pdf 11 What Housing Bubble? http://www.dsnews.com/articles/experts-see-risk-of-housing-bubble-resulting-from-fed-policies-2013-0 13 Jed Kolko Quote http://info.trulia.com/trulia-price-and-rent-monitors-jun-2013 19 Dramatic Mortgage Rate Increases http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html 20, 21 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History, Recent Rate Movement http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 22 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2 http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf 25 Monthly Payment on a $250,000 Mortgage http://www.bankrate.com
    42. 42. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 26 Buyers Willing to Bid Over Asking Price http://info.trulia.com/american-dream-survey-summer-2013 27 Migration Patterns http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html 29 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 30, 31, 32, 33 Pending Home Sales, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales, Months Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org 34 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice- assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf 37 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 39, 40 Cumulative House Appreciation by 2017, Projected Percentage Appreciation https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php 41 John Paulson Quote http://www.cnbc.com/id/100893817 42 Seattle First Home Buyers https://www.facebook.com/SeattleFirstTimeHomeBuyers 43 Shaun Farrell Real Estate https://www.facebook.com/ShaunFarrellRealEstate 44 YourNaperville.com Blog Post http://yournaperville.com/mortgage-rates-and-impact-on-buying-a-naperville-home-july-2013 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    43. 43. The key to success is developing TRUST
    1. ¿Le ha llamado la atención una diapositiva en particular?

      Recortar diapositivas es una manera útil de recopilar información importante para consultarla más tarde.

    ×