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JETPACK Scenario Planning Module

This document outlines a strategic scenario planning module from Jetpack© aimed at helping ventures better understand and adapt their business models through scenario identification and development. It presents a nine-step methodology that includes frameworks like the Business Model Canvas and PESTEL analysis to explore potential futures, identify trends and drivers, and ultimately build robust strategies. By leveraging scenarios, organizations can prepare for different outcomes and navigate uncertainties in their market landscapes.

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SCENARIO IDENTIFICATION JETPACKMODULE 1
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JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION PROCESS WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING? STEP 1: BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS STEP 2: DEFINING THE FUTURE TIMESCALE STEP 3: PESTEL ANALYSIS STEP 4: IMPACT & UNCERTAINTY STEP 5: LEVERAGING LOGIC AXIS STEP 6: BUILDING SCENARIO NARRATIVES STEP 7: ESTABLISHING WEAK SIGNALS STEP 8: REVISITING THE BMC STEP 9: ADAPT & REVISIT OVER TIME CONCLUSION RESOURCES ABOUT THE AUTHOR 04 05 06 08 12 13 16 18 20 28 32 33 34 35 36
4 INTRODUCTION This module of JETPACK© is intended to provide you with an understanding of how strategic scenario planning can be used to better understand your venture. In this module you will gain insight on how to leverage scenarios to build better understanding and context around your business model. Throughout this process you will achieve the following goals: • Understand what scenarios are and how scenario planning can impact your business model • How to frame and build scenarios • How to identify weak signals and build a strategy around them • Understand how you might reframe your business model within the context of future scenarios The objective of this workbook is to provide you with the foundations of business model scenario planning and the tools you can use to build better strategies for the future. You can use this module to expand your knowledge, skillsets, and toolkit as you and your venture move forward. For more information, please refer back to the first four original stages of JETPACK as the need arises. ABOUT JETPACK© JETPACK© is a four-stage toolkit for identifying and developing the soft assets of your venture. Each stage is designed and organized to build upon one another while providing you with a process and se- ries of tools to better understand your venture’s business model, brand, and development needs. As you move through the stages, JETPACK© will provide you the capability and empowerment for starting your venture be it a new business or non-profit organization.
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 5 PROCESS The Strategic Scenario Planning process that JETPACK© outlines below is broken down into a simple nine step methodology that uses frameworks and tools to teach you how to build scenarios for your organization. Steps one through three explore the current-state landscape of the venture, market, and how to frame your scenario question. The following four steps provide guidance on how to map and build scenarios while the final three to help identify weak signals, pitfalls, and opportunities going forward. In this module you will learn a new approach for your strategic thinking toolkit that has been built off subject matter expertise and tested within both Fortune 500 companies and startups.
6 WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING? Scenarios are stories of potential futures that capture and frame certain outcomes or situations. These narratives can be as small as future use cases or as large as understanding shifting market dynamics. Scenarios enable us to explore how we fit within the context of the word, not how the world fits to the context of us. Strategic Scenario Planning is a method used to gain better insight about the future. No one can predict the future; however, we can make educated guesses on how trends and drivers come together to enable certain outcomes to take place. Scenario planning is just that, it is a process of looking not at the what will but rather the what might be. Scenari- os are not intended to be solely rooted in probabil- ity and instead focus more on the plausibility of a situation coming to life. The scenario planning process uses trends and drivers (see call out A) to explore how these seem- ingly independent elements might come together to create plausible futures. We can then explore how we might fit within that picture and what might have to change or reframe to grow. By understanding what the landscape looks like we can then identify weak signals to leverage if we see certain activities of our futures coming to light. As figure 1 illustrates, scenarios can come in many different timescales or lengths; however, the best scenarios look more broadly into the future. WHAT ARE TRENDS? Trends are the visible effects and changes taking place within a society. Typically, we think of trends in fashion and design, but trends also encom- pass broader themes such as mobile commerce and social networks. WHAT ARE DRIVERS? Drivers are the less visible effects tak- ing place within a culture. They are the deeper-rooted causes that bring about trends. For example, the diffusion of smart phone technology and commu- nications has caused the emergence of mobile commerce and the ease of social networks to be adopted. WHAT ARE WEAK SIGNALS? A Weak Signal is an indicator that change is beginning to take place. These indicators might come in various forums from R&D to public policy to changing social perceptions. These indicators can be used to identify and make potential change. CALL OUT A:
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 7 PREDICTIONS: Predictions are near-term events or happenings that can be somewhat as- sumed to take place. These can best be aligned with immediate trends and drivers looking at a close horizon line. SCENARIOS: Scenarios function best in the mid-to- long range that provides the greatest space to explore how ideas might play out. With scenarios there are higher degrees of impact and uncertainty that take place. HOPE: “Hope” can be considered the farthest area of exploration. While these are also scenarios, they are most typically relegated to the landscape of science fiction holding the highest degrees of impact and uncertainty due to time. 1 - 5 YEARS PREDICTION 5 - 40 YEARS SCENARIOS 40+ YEARS HOPE
8 STEP 1: BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS The Business Model Canvas (BMC) (Fig. 2) used in JETPACK’s Business Identification stage from Business Model Generation is a perfect tool to be leveraged within scenario planning. As a framework it is great for exploring how a business model might adapt iteratively over time in the context of scenarios. The BMC is divided into nine key elements that align with how an organization functions. The canvas as a tool is intended to explore the venture’s operations at an easily digestible, high level. It can be viewed as two sides of a single coin, with all the elements on the right aligning with external, customer-facing elements of the business and those on the left focusing inwardly on how the venture actualizes it value delivery. While you can work your way around the canvas how you see fit, it is easiest to first begin with your Customer Segments and Value Proposition and identifying the key external factors first. After this, you should begin to address the back-end activities and capabilities that enable you to deliver your value proposition. Once you have the foundations of your scenarios later on, you will be revisiting your Business Model Canvas in these new landscapes to explore how you might function in the future. Payment Providers Ex. PayPal Traveler Networks Key Partners Key Activities Key Resources Cost Structures Revenue Streams Channels Customer Relationships Customer Value Proposition Customer SegmentsPlatform development & maintenance Traveler Networks Selection of local & international places to rent AirBNB Brand Platform Development & Design Local & Traveler Insurance 6-12% Booking Fee (Traveler) 3% Successful Booking Fee (Local) Word of Mouth Social Media Local Events Partner Program 24/7 Customer Support Online Community Ranking Local Brand Ambassadors Travelers (Renters) Budget Travelers Business Travelers Globetrotters Stay in unique places with locals, meet new people (traveler) Rent out and extra room, share local knowledge, meet travelers (local) Efficient Resource Consumption Example of a Service: AirBNB Investors Ex. Sequoia Capital Locals Ex. High-volume Local Renters Videos & Photography City & Community Engagement Platform Locals (Leasers) Extra Room Social Tour Guides Expats and Students Marketing & Community Management
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 9 KEY PARTNERS KEY ACTIVITIES KEY RESOURCES COST STRUCTURES REVENUE STREAMS CHANNELS CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS CUSTOMER VALUE PROPOSITION CUSTOMER SEGMENTS Source: Business Model Generation BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS The value that you are delivering directly to your customers and the unique offering that sets you a part from your competition. Ex: Service or Product Offering, Benefits or Incentives The groups, people, organiza- tions, and businesses that can help you achieve what it is you are looking to accomplish. Ex: Media Outlets, Community Organizations, Universities The activities that relate spe- cifically to the value you are delivering. Ex: Product Manufacturing, Designing, Pet Grooming The resources that you have at your disposal to utilize. Ex: Equipment, Knowledge, Experience, Capital This is how you interact with your customers from a business perspective. Ex: Directly - Face-to-Face, Indi- rectly - though a third party This is how your customers can engage or learn about your brand and offerings. Ex: Social Media, Conferences, Websites, Face-to-Face The consumers you are seeking to reach and sell your product or service to or engage with. Ex: Doctors, College Students, Jetsetters, Expectant Mothers These are the costs that are taken to ensure that the venture can operate and function. Ex: Staff, Facilities, Insurance, Equipment These the methods in which your venture will be making money off of what it is doing Ex: Membership Fees, Product Sales, Consulting Fees
10 KEY PARTNERS KEY ACTIVITIES KEY RESOURCES COST STRUCTURES REVENUE STREAMS CHANNELS CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS CUSTOMER VALUE PROPOSITION CUSTOMER SEGMENTS Source: Business Model Generation BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 11 BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS NOTES
12 STEP 2: DEFINING THE FUTURE TIMESCALE Every new scenario project must start with a key, driving question that helps to frame the overall initiative. What might it be for you? Having a central question as your guiding light will bound your project going forward. It is also helpful that your question not be overly specific and tactical nor should it be exceptionally broad in scope either. An example of a too-specific question might be, “What is the future of hypodermic needs in Cape Canaveral, FL?” While this question might be one worth exploring, it is too narrowly focused for the context of using scenarios for strategy. Being too vague or broad is also a challenge, such as simply asking, “What is the future of play?” This too is a great question to ask and can bring about some amazing scenarios, but it might also be too vague. When you frame your scenario question try to land somewhere in the middle that will be contextually relevant to your venture’s focus. The middle ground should be broad enough in scope to explore many changing dynamics, while relevant enough to your industry or niche. For example, “How might the shifting market dynamics between the East and West affect technological adoption of solar infrastructure?” This question is broad in exploration while narrow in a targeted scope. As you frame your scenario question always be seeking the middle ground. Once you have framed your question, the second question is about timescale. How far in the future are you looking to build your scenarios in? The best scenarios can be developed using longer-range timescales of 10 to 20 years in the future. Where would you like your narrative to be and what events might lead up to that?
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 13 STEP 3: PESTEL ANALYSIS Where do we begin? Now that you have your question(s) at hand you can begin exploring and collecting a variety of different data and information to build context. To start, you can use the PESTEL (Fig. 3) framework as a tool for bucketing information. PESTEL stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental and it is especially useful when trying to broadly understand your market or macro-level environment. PESTLE helps to frame the big picture and will provide a starting for identifying emerging trends and drivers. Each of these elements can be comprised of many different aspects such as: • Political – tax policies, new regulations, government stability • Economic – inflation, disposable income, levels of inflation • Social – demographics, lifestyle trends, levels of education • Technological – technological adoption, emerging innovations • Environmental – protection laws and standards, rate of resource usage • Legal – trade regulations, employee protections, competitive regulations Depending on the scope of your exploration it may also be necessary to expand the PESTEL framework to the incorporate other elements like Healthcare or Education. To use the framework, dive deep and search far and wide to uncover and plot trends and drivers within each category. The more populated you can build your PESTEL framework the more rich your scenarios will become. It is helpful to remember that you are looking for trends (visible cultural change), drivers (less visible change), and defining moments or events. The next step of the process will take the work you have complied within the analysis and plot it against an Impact and Uncertainty Matrix. TIP: As you gather data and conduct your environmental scan, it is helpful to also explore the “not-so-real” environment as well with science fiction. Science fiction can provide an interesting lens to further explore plausible futures and technologies. Not every science fiction choice must be focused on domed Martian cities; however, there are many fantastical technologies from classic science fiction that have inspired current and emerging technologies of today. Fiction isn’t the only lens to explore either; Peter Schwartz encourages seeking out “remarkable people” those who are on the frontiers of science, creativity, and doing the impossible. These people can be looked to as inspirations and sources of insight whether they are entrepreneurs, scientists, artists, or public figures.
14 POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL LEGAL Government Subsidies City Government Deepening the River Xenophobia Slowness Zoning Laws City Ordinance Legal Barriers “Old Guard” Innovation Hubs Poverty Death by Committee Gerry Mandering “Local” Startups New Business Growth Innovation Built Environment (Architecture, etc.) Real Estate Tourism Working Poor Industry/ Manufacturing Port City Experience Economy Seasonality Parenthood/ Child Planning Community Mindset “The Who You Know” Factor Arts Culture Pocket Communities Walkable/Bikeable City Startup Culture Coworking and 3rd Spaces Foodie Region Rise of Social Media Ability to Remote Work Social Profiles Lean Startup Information Access Emerging Smart Cities Using Technology for Civic Engagement Increasing Cost of Oil Community “Greening” Social Entrepreneurship Cradle to Cradle Changing Perceptions to Commuting Structure of Cities/Urban Development Increasing Populations Tourism Greenspacing Rising Culture of Community Sustainability New Laws Emerging Urban Plans Legal Approach to Addressing Poverty JOBS Act Healthcare Legislation Equity Crowdfunding Fig. 3: PESTEL Analysis PESTEL FRAMEWORK
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 15 POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL LEGAL PESTEL FRAMEWORK
16 STEP 4: IMPACT & UNCERTAINTY With a robust PESTEL analysis compiled we can turn to understanding Impact and Uncertainty. The Impact and Uncertainty Matrix (IUM) is a tool developed from Ian Wilson and Bill Ralston’s Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times, which allows us to explore how various trends and drivers might affect the venture. The IUM is a lens to identify those trends and drivers that might play out in the most critically unknown ways. As a framework it can be used either simply as a 2x2 or 3x3 matrix (Fig. 4) with the y-axis assessing uncertainty and the x-axis examining impact. You can complete the framework as a two-step process (Fig. 5 & 6): PHASE: 1 HOW TO RATE UNCERTAINTY? Begin by plotting your trends and drivers across the y-axis of uncertainty. How might we best asses the level of uncertainty? You can think of uncertainty by leveraging it to initial criteria with the first being, how visible is this already in reality? For example, nano technology is becoming big in the news; however, its direct application within the market space is still limited. The second criterion is timescale. If nano technology is still largely in the R&D phase, how long might it take to fully come to reality, 10 to 20 years? If this is the case one could say that this driver might be somewhere along the middle of the y-axis, because we know it will be coming. UNCERTAINTY IMPACT LOWH IGH LOWHIGH Fig. 4: Impact & Uncertainty Matrix
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 17 PHASE 2: HOW TO RATE IMPACT? Once you have completed Step 1, you can begin to translate your PESTEL based on Impact. Impact can be rated from low to high based upon how much it will affect your scenario question. At this point in the exercise it is best to refrain from rating impact directly to your venture as this will narrow the focus of the scenario process. The outcome of this portion of the exercise is to gain better insight into those trends and drivers that have the highest levels of impact and uncertainty within the IUM. Those that fall within that critical area will be used to help frame the foundations of your strategic scenarios. UNCERTAINTY IMPACT LOWH IGH LOWHIGH UNCERTAINTY IMPACT LOWH IGH LOWHIGH Fig. 5: Phase 1 Fig. 6: Phase 2
18 STEP 5: LEVERAGING LOGIC AXIS Logic axis allow you to take the most interesting trends and drivers and explore how they interact and create scenario foundations. A logic axis is essentially a 2x2 diagram that takes two trends or drivers and compares them as extremes. You can use this to then think of exploratory scenario vignettes. You can begin by picking one trend and placing it on the center of a single axis and then identify two opposing outcomes. For example, if we use nano technology as a trend, on one end you might decide that it could be used for healthcare innovation, while on the other, it might be used for technological warfare (fig. 7). This can be done for a second trend or driver for the other axis. Once you have assembled a 2x2 you can then explore how these might come into play with one another in each of the four quadrants (fig. 8). Depending upon how complex you are looking to develop your scenario narratives, it is helpful to do a series of logic axis to visualize different vignettes within your story. The more you develop the more rich and varied your narratives can become. Use the blank templates on the following pages to guide your scenario development. Fig. 7: Logic Axis Structure TIP: If you are having trouble directly identifying how two extremes might come together or create a potential outcome it is encouraged you revisit your research and findings for added inspiration. It might also be helpful to use a mind map to explore how various elements come together as well as thinking in terms of analogy or comparison. EXTREME EXTREME TREND OR DRIVER
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 19 Fig. 8: Scenario Vignette Structure EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME SCENARIO VIGNETTE 1 SCENARIO VIGNETTE 2 SCENARIO VIGNETTE 4 SCENARIO VIGNETTE 3
20 STEP 6: BUILDING SCENARIO NARRATIVES Now that you have complied a series of scenario vignettes along with your trends and drivers it is helpful to string them all together. This step in the process will leverage three phases, the first is a rating scale of importance of the vignettes; the second will focus on building the timelines through backcasting; and the third on the value of naming. PHASE 1: RATING RELEVANCE/IDENTIFYING CENTRAL THEMES The first step of this process to use the Scenario Score Card (SSC) (fig. 9) to identify key and central themes that will run through out the scenarios. The SSC is a tool to evaluate both relevance and major story elements while cataloging supporting and supplemental vignettes to build into the overall narratives. To use the SSC you must first identify four key factors that align within your central question that are a major focus for the scenario planning project. Using the example above for solar technology, four factors might include the diffusion of photovoltaic technology, changing consumer perspectives, increasing energy needs, and shifting economic relationships. Each of these factors play a part TIP: To align your factors even further, you can weight your factors in value and calculate a percentage for your averages. You can do this simply by assigning a priority percent for each factor such as Factor A might have 25% relevance while Factor D might only have 13%. Once you have chosen your Likert score for the proto-scenario you can then multiply each by the weight score add the percentages to calculate the totals. within the guiding scope of the project and each scenario vignette should be rated on a 1-5 or 1-10 scale for relevance. Refer to the tip section below for more information on how to weight your vignettes. If you chose to build several vignettes in Step 6, you will find that some become more central than others; however, you can still leverage the less important ones to build more dynamic stories.
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 21 SCENARIO VIGNETTE DESCRIPTION ALIGNMENT TO CENTRAL QUESTION(S) PLAUSIBILITY RELEVANCE TO F-P RELEVANCE TO PLAY BLINDS POTS/ CHALLENGES TOTAL AVERAGE Luxury Toy Toys as a high-end status symbol 3 4 5 2 1 4 2 1 5 1 4 5 2 5 3 2 3 5 3 4 5 2 1 4 2.5 3.5 4.5 3.5 2.25 4.5 Unstructured play and toys Toy AIs as educational support Play that allows communities to up cycle Toy AIs that grow with the child Pay that accounts for cradle-to-cradle Toys Environment Busy Parents Leasing Service for Toys Toys as Guardians Lifecycle Toys Fig. 9: Scenario Rate Card Sample SCENARIO RATE CARDS
22 SCENARIO RATE CARDS SCENARIO VIGNETTE DESCRIPTION ALIGNMENT TO CENTRAL QUESTION(S) FACTOR A (WEIGHT %) FACTOR B (WEIGHT %) FACTOR C (WEIGHT %) FACTOR D (WEIGHT %) TOTAL
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 23 SCENARIO RATE CARDS NOTES
24 STEP 6: BUILDING SCENARIO NARRATIVES PHASE 2: PLOTTING YOUR NARRATIVES Now we have arrived at the most fun part within the scenario planning process, building scenario narratives. Strategic scenario planning is not about building one sole futurescape, but rather it is best to build four or five core scenario narratives. The reason for this is that one scenario is too limiting; two scenarios can be seen as it will be this or that; and three scenarios are typically viewed as good, bad, and somewhere in the middle. This is why four or five make for a stronger position. Furthermore, scenarios should also not be seen as entirely negative or entirely positive, just like reality, they are a mixture of both good, bad, and a lot of gray. To build strong and rich narratives you must incorporate a mixture of both good and bad. Fig. 10: Backcasting There is no single way to write a scenario narrative; however the most helpful process is to leverage a technique called backcasting (fig. 10). Backcasting allows us to envision our future scenario; set to the end of the time scale, and build backwards all the elements and things that might take place between then and now. SCENARIO FUTURESCAPE PRESENT MAJOR EVENT
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 25 Fig. 11: Building Time Waves How you imagine the future scenario is up to you, but it is a useful to visualize the story at this point. On the following you page you can use the sample blank storyboards to help draw out key events as you work through your stories. You can use your highest rated vignettes to form the central story for each of your scenarios and set them as an end state. It is helpful to write a brief paragraph about what this future looks like underneath. As you frame your description also take into account the many different supporting and supplemental vignettes that might also impact that future and begin placing them along a timeline. The additional vignettes provide an approach build in variability, or “time waves” (fig. 11), within the overall story. Time waves allow you to add in the good, the bad, and the ugly to craft a more vibrant story. Your scenarios should be compiled into a simple two to three page write-ups that not only document the end state, but highlight what has led up that as well. It may also be useful to include, as notes, which vignettes went into the piece. PHASE 3: SCENARIO NAMING The last step focuses on naming. The name given to your scenario should be thoughtful and thought provoking. How you name your scenarios helps to define their strength and plausibility. Titles such as “Cross Roads” can imply many things, especially as they relate to your central question and the storylines themselves. You have just completed your initial set of scenarios, but the method is not quite over yet. In the following steps you will revisit the BMC in the context of your scenarios and learn how to identify weak signals and benchmarks. TIME WAVES & SCENARIO VIGNETTES PRESENT POSITIVE EVENTS NEGATIVE EVENTS
26 SCENARIO STORYBOARD
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 27
28 STEP 7: ESTABLISHING WEAK SIGNALS How do you identify weak signals and what are they really? A weak signal can be thought of as an emerging indicator to take note of. Identifying weak signals can have a major impact for your environmental scans and strategic planning. To identify potential signals refer back to your scenario narratives and look for unique pressures that align to your central question and key factors. Weak signals can come in a variety of different forms and may emerge from within wholly unexpected industries. The Weak Signal Rate Card (fig. 12) is a simple tool for keeping track of weak signals. You can use these indicators and examine how they might change over time. As they evolve, if they do at all, it is good revisit them to see if their level of impact has changed. You can use the blank Weak Signal Cards to track your own. Weak signals not only act as benchmarks to react to, but they provide a greater opportunity to become proactive based on the new context. If these pressures were to become true, how might we find and build new or better offerings? Are their certain elements that broadly affect our competitors as well? How might this create a strategic niche? These are all elements that can be explored in the context of the scenario planning process.
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 29 Fig. 11: Example Weak Signal Rate Card on Nano Technology for Health Care WEAK SIGNAL RATE CARD TIME FRAME TO MONITOR LEVEL OF IMPACT INDICATOR NAME: INDICATOR DESCRIPTION: HOW WILL WE KNOW? HOW MIGHT WE TRACK IT? HOW MIGHT WE RESPOND? IMPACT FACTOR PRIMARY: IMPACT FACTOR SECONDARY: NEAR MID LONG LOW MID HIGH Nano Technology Nano technology is the approach to using microscopic robots programmed to find, build, or remove any number of problems. In health care nano bots could be used to repair damaged organs and fight chronic diseases such as cancer that kill millions every year. We will know this indicator is coming into reality once more prototypes begin moving into the testing and exploration phases of R&D. Nano tech, might emerge and mature in some market sectors faster than others might. We can track this in a number of ways such as published research papers, emerging developed prototypes, and startups focusing nano technology as a reality, not purely science fiction. One option is to invest in nano technology and help spur it on early as a market entrant. A second option would be to reposition our offerings as a cheaper, still value driven approach, especially early on. Immunology Manufacturing
30 WEAK SIGNAL RATE CARD TIME FRAME TO MONITOR LEVEL OF IMPACT INDICATOR NAME: INDICATOR DESCRIPTION: HOW WILL WE KNOW? HOW MIGHT WE TRACK IT? HOW MIGHT WE RESPOND? IMPACT FACTOR PRIMARY: IMPACT FACTOR SECONDARY: NEAR MID LONG LOW MID HIGH
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 31 WEAK SIGNAL RATE CARD TIME FRAME TO MONITOR LEVEL OF IMPACT INDICATOR NAME: INDICATOR DESCRIPTION: HOW WILL WE KNOW? HOW MIGHT WE TRACK IT? HOW MIGHT WE RESPOND? IMPACT FACTOR PRIMARY: IMPACT FACTOR SECONDARY: NEAR MID LONG LOW MID HIGH
32 STEP 8: REVISITING THE BMC Throughout this exercise you have learned how to frame, build, and identify strategic scenarios for your organization. Step 9 focuses on revisiting your Business Model Canvas (BMC) from within your scenario narratives. You can begin by looking at your current state business model and your Weak Signal Rate Cards (WSRC) to mark where on your timeline key pivot points may take place. It is helpful to remember, that these indicators are not a definitive prediction; however, they are plausible, fact-based assumptions given the data you have. How the actual future might come to be, might be faster, slower, or not at all depending on the situation. Once you have marked a handful of various benchmarks along your scenario timelines, you can begin to rework your BMC based on the situation. How might things change? In what ways might you react? If this situation were to emerge as true, would it necessarily be a bad thing? How might we reframe a negative situation into a positive opportunity? As you work your way around your new BMCs, think about how you might set the seeds strategically to explore some of your identified opportunities.
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 33 STEP 9: ADAPT & REVISIT OVER TIME The scenarios that you have now constructed should be a part of an ongoing process of exploration and discovery. Only time will tell which aspects of your scenario may become true and which may not. Strategic scenario planning is a method for helping your organization be adaptable, agile, and flexible in the context of an ever-shifting world. Your scenarios should not be set in stone, but rather use them as a guiding light into an uncertain future. As time goes forward it is healthy to rethink and revisit your scenarios by exploring new options and new opportunities as information comes to light. This is a part of a much more broad strategic thinking position called Adaptive Planning, which focuses on iterative scenario planning and looking future-forward. You can use this position within your organization to better understand how changing, disruptive events might play out and affect the venture. Now that you have the tools and methods, use them and build upon them as you frame your strategic positioning. The frameworks are simple, but the process is powerful.
34 CONCLUSION You now have a robust set of scenarios, identified weak signals, and a new set of potentially identified opportunities and pivots, but so what? If no one can reasonably predict the future, what value does this actually create for me? To answer this we have to look back at the venture’s strategy and its where to play and how to win positioning. When you understand where you are and where you want to go it is much easier to explore a wider array of plausible futures to help you get there. The value add of strategic scenario planning is that it provides teams a better, more rich set narratives to understand how the orga- nization can better prepare to respond, but adapt as time moves on. Your scenarios should be used to build support for your current strategic efforts. This process is just one methodology that should be integrated into the business’s strategic thinking approach.
JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 35 RESOURCES Diamandis, Peter H. and Steven Kotler. Abundance: the future is better than you think. New York, NY: Free Press, 2012. Courtney, Hugh. 20/20 foresight: crafting strategy in an uncertain world. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2001. Kurzweil, Ray. The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York, NY: Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 2005. Schwartz, Peter. Inevitable surprises: thinking ahead in a time of turbulence. New York, NY: Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 2003. Schwartz, Peter. Art of the Long View. New York, NY: Random House, Inc., 1991. Strauss, William and Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. New York, NY: Broadway Books, 1997. Van der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2006.
36 ABOUT THE AUTHOR I am a designer, entrepreneur, and researcher who has a deep love for design, technology, and enabling better experiences for consumers. My background has been in strategic planning, brand development, CX, design research and management. Over the course of my career I’ve worked with startups, SMEs, nonprofits and Fortune 500s to build brands, products and services, and craft transformative strategies through deep consumer insights. In 2013 I began co-creating JETPACK© for my MFA thesis work on how to leverage design as a methodology for entrepreneurship. This was done alongside the team at Volta Collaborative, Savannah College of Art and Design, and the entrepreneurial economy of Savannah. I believe that design is a critical necessity for any startup and as a process it should be leveraged early and often. By using design as a lens to approach challenges and identify opportunities we can better develop offerings and value propositions that deliver on customer needs and desires in unique and consumer-focused ways. - Caleb Sexton, Founder/Designer info@jumpstartjetpack.com www.hiimcaleb.me www.jumpstartjetpack.com
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JETPACK Scenario Planning Module

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In this document
Powered by AI

Overview of JETPACK© module for strategic scenario planning to enhance business understanding.

A simple nine-step methodology for building organizational scenarios through strategic planning.

Definition of scenarios, trends, drivers, and weak signals in the context of strategic planning.

Utilizing the Business Model Canvas framework to adapt business models within scenarios.

Importance of framing a central scenario question and defining an appropriate future timescale.

PESTEL framework to analyze market conditions, identifying political, economic, and social factors.

Using Impact and Uncertainty Matrix to evaluate trends' potential effects and uncertainties.

Using logic axis diagrams to explore trends and drivers and develop scenario foundations.

Creating detailed scenario narratives through rating relevance, backcasting, and timeline development.

Process of recognizing weak signals as emerging indicators for strategic planning and adjustments.

Revisiting Business Model Canvas based on scenario narratives and adapting strategies accordingly.

Encouragement of continuous adaptation and reviewing scenarios as part of strategic exploration.

Summary of scenario planning value with references for further reading about strategic practices.

JETPACK Scenario Planning Module

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 3 TABLE OFCONTENTS INTRODUCTION PROCESS WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING? STEP 1: BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS STEP 2: DEFINING THE FUTURE TIMESCALE STEP 3: PESTEL ANALYSIS STEP 4: IMPACT & UNCERTAINTY STEP 5: LEVERAGING LOGIC AXIS STEP 6: BUILDING SCENARIO NARRATIVES STEP 7: ESTABLISHING WEAK SIGNALS STEP 8: REVISITING THE BMC STEP 9: ADAPT & REVISIT OVER TIME CONCLUSION RESOURCES ABOUT THE AUTHOR 04 05 06 08 12 13 16 18 20 28 32 33 34 35 36
  • 4.
    4 INTRODUCTION This module ofJETPACK© is intended to provide you with an understanding of how strategic scenario planning can be used to better understand your venture. In this module you will gain insight on how to leverage scenarios to build better understanding and context around your business model. Throughout this process you will achieve the following goals: • Understand what scenarios are and how scenario planning can impact your business model • How to frame and build scenarios • How to identify weak signals and build a strategy around them • Understand how you might reframe your business model within the context of future scenarios The objective of this workbook is to provide you with the foundations of business model scenario planning and the tools you can use to build better strategies for the future. You can use this module to expand your knowledge, skillsets, and toolkit as you and your venture move forward. For more information, please refer back to the first four original stages of JETPACK as the need arises. ABOUT JETPACK© JETPACK© is a four-stage toolkit for identifying and developing the soft assets of your venture. Each stage is designed and organized to build upon one another while providing you with a process and se- ries of tools to better understand your venture’s business model, brand, and development needs. As you move through the stages, JETPACK© will provide you the capability and empowerment for starting your venture be it a new business or non-profit organization.
  • 5.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 5 PROCESS The StrategicScenario Planning process that JETPACK© outlines below is broken down into a simple nine step methodology that uses frameworks and tools to teach you how to build scenarios for your organization. Steps one through three explore the current-state landscape of the venture, market, and how to frame your scenario question. The following four steps provide guidance on how to map and build scenarios while the final three to help identify weak signals, pitfalls, and opportunities going forward. In this module you will learn a new approach for your strategic thinking toolkit that has been built off subject matter expertise and tested within both Fortune 500 companies and startups.
  • 6.
    6 WHAT IS SCENARIOPLANNING? Scenarios are stories of potential futures that capture and frame certain outcomes or situations. These narratives can be as small as future use cases or as large as understanding shifting market dynamics. Scenarios enable us to explore how we fit within the context of the word, not how the world fits to the context of us. Strategic Scenario Planning is a method used to gain better insight about the future. No one can predict the future; however, we can make educated guesses on how trends and drivers come together to enable certain outcomes to take place. Scenario planning is just that, it is a process of looking not at the what will but rather the what might be. Scenari- os are not intended to be solely rooted in probabil- ity and instead focus more on the plausibility of a situation coming to life. The scenario planning process uses trends and drivers (see call out A) to explore how these seem- ingly independent elements might come together to create plausible futures. We can then explore how we might fit within that picture and what might have to change or reframe to grow. By understanding what the landscape looks like we can then identify weak signals to leverage if we see certain activities of our futures coming to light. As figure 1 illustrates, scenarios can come in many different timescales or lengths; however, the best scenarios look more broadly into the future. WHAT ARE TRENDS? Trends are the visible effects and changes taking place within a society. Typically, we think of trends in fashion and design, but trends also encom- pass broader themes such as mobile commerce and social networks. WHAT ARE DRIVERS? Drivers are the less visible effects tak- ing place within a culture. They are the deeper-rooted causes that bring about trends. For example, the diffusion of smart phone technology and commu- nications has caused the emergence of mobile commerce and the ease of social networks to be adopted. WHAT ARE WEAK SIGNALS? A Weak Signal is an indicator that change is beginning to take place. These indicators might come in various forums from R&D to public policy to changing social perceptions. These indicators can be used to identify and make potential change. CALL OUT A:
  • 7.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 7 PREDICTIONS: Predictions arenear-term events or happenings that can be somewhat as- sumed to take place. These can best be aligned with immediate trends and drivers looking at a close horizon line. SCENARIOS: Scenarios function best in the mid-to- long range that provides the greatest space to explore how ideas might play out. With scenarios there are higher degrees of impact and uncertainty that take place. HOPE: “Hope” can be considered the farthest area of exploration. While these are also scenarios, they are most typically relegated to the landscape of science fiction holding the highest degrees of impact and uncertainty due to time. 1 - 5 YEARS PREDICTION 5 - 40 YEARS SCENARIOS 40+ YEARS HOPE
  • 8.
    8 STEP 1: BUSINESSMODEL CANVAS The Business Model Canvas (BMC) (Fig. 2) used in JETPACK’s Business Identification stage from Business Model Generation is a perfect tool to be leveraged within scenario planning. As a framework it is great for exploring how a business model might adapt iteratively over time in the context of scenarios. The BMC is divided into nine key elements that align with how an organization functions. The canvas as a tool is intended to explore the venture’s operations at an easily digestible, high level. It can be viewed as two sides of a single coin, with all the elements on the right aligning with external, customer-facing elements of the business and those on the left focusing inwardly on how the venture actualizes it value delivery. While you can work your way around the canvas how you see fit, it is easiest to first begin with your Customer Segments and Value Proposition and identifying the key external factors first. After this, you should begin to address the back-end activities and capabilities that enable you to deliver your value proposition. Once you have the foundations of your scenarios later on, you will be revisiting your Business Model Canvas in these new landscapes to explore how you might function in the future. Payment Providers Ex. PayPal Traveler Networks Key Partners Key Activities Key Resources Cost Structures Revenue Streams Channels Customer Relationships Customer Value Proposition Customer SegmentsPlatform development & maintenance Traveler Networks Selection of local & international places to rent AirBNB Brand Platform Development & Design Local & Traveler Insurance 6-12% Booking Fee (Traveler) 3% Successful Booking Fee (Local) Word of Mouth Social Media Local Events Partner Program 24/7 Customer Support Online Community Ranking Local Brand Ambassadors Travelers (Renters) Budget Travelers Business Travelers Globetrotters Stay in unique places with locals, meet new people (traveler) Rent out and extra room, share local knowledge, meet travelers (local) Efficient Resource Consumption Example of a Service: AirBNB Investors Ex. Sequoia Capital Locals Ex. High-volume Local Renters Videos & Photography City & Community Engagement Platform Locals (Leasers) Extra Room Social Tour Guides Expats and Students Marketing & Community Management
  • 9.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 9 KEY PARTNERSKEY ACTIVITIES KEY RESOURCES COST STRUCTURES REVENUE STREAMS CHANNELS CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS CUSTOMER VALUE PROPOSITION CUSTOMER SEGMENTS Source: Business Model Generation BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS The value that you are delivering directly to your customers and the unique offering that sets you a part from your competition. Ex: Service or Product Offering, Benefits or Incentives The groups, people, organiza- tions, and businesses that can help you achieve what it is you are looking to accomplish. Ex: Media Outlets, Community Organizations, Universities The activities that relate spe- cifically to the value you are delivering. Ex: Product Manufacturing, Designing, Pet Grooming The resources that you have at your disposal to utilize. Ex: Equipment, Knowledge, Experience, Capital This is how you interact with your customers from a business perspective. Ex: Directly - Face-to-Face, Indi- rectly - though a third party This is how your customers can engage or learn about your brand and offerings. Ex: Social Media, Conferences, Websites, Face-to-Face The consumers you are seeking to reach and sell your product or service to or engage with. Ex: Doctors, College Students, Jetsetters, Expectant Mothers These are the costs that are taken to ensure that the venture can operate and function. Ex: Staff, Facilities, Insurance, Equipment These the methods in which your venture will be making money off of what it is doing Ex: Membership Fees, Product Sales, Consulting Fees
  • 10.
    10 KEY PARTNERS KEYACTIVITIES KEY RESOURCES COST STRUCTURES REVENUE STREAMS CHANNELS CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS CUSTOMER VALUE PROPOSITION CUSTOMER SEGMENTS Source: Business Model Generation BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS
  • 11.
  • 12.
    12 STEP 2: DEFININGTHE FUTURE TIMESCALE Every new scenario project must start with a key, driving question that helps to frame the overall initiative. What might it be for you? Having a central question as your guiding light will bound your project going forward. It is also helpful that your question not be overly specific and tactical nor should it be exceptionally broad in scope either. An example of a too-specific question might be, “What is the future of hypodermic needs in Cape Canaveral, FL?” While this question might be one worth exploring, it is too narrowly focused for the context of using scenarios for strategy. Being too vague or broad is also a challenge, such as simply asking, “What is the future of play?” This too is a great question to ask and can bring about some amazing scenarios, but it might also be too vague. When you frame your scenario question try to land somewhere in the middle that will be contextually relevant to your venture’s focus. The middle ground should be broad enough in scope to explore many changing dynamics, while relevant enough to your industry or niche. For example, “How might the shifting market dynamics between the East and West affect technological adoption of solar infrastructure?” This question is broad in exploration while narrow in a targeted scope. As you frame your scenario question always be seeking the middle ground. Once you have framed your question, the second question is about timescale. How far in the future are you looking to build your scenarios in? The best scenarios can be developed using longer-range timescales of 10 to 20 years in the future. Where would you like your narrative to be and what events might lead up to that?
  • 13.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 13 STEP 3:PESTEL ANALYSIS Where do we begin? Now that you have your question(s) at hand you can begin exploring and collecting a variety of different data and information to build context. To start, you can use the PESTEL (Fig. 3) framework as a tool for bucketing information. PESTEL stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental and it is especially useful when trying to broadly understand your market or macro-level environment. PESTLE helps to frame the big picture and will provide a starting for identifying emerging trends and drivers. Each of these elements can be comprised of many different aspects such as: • Political – tax policies, new regulations, government stability • Economic – inflation, disposable income, levels of inflation • Social – demographics, lifestyle trends, levels of education • Technological – technological adoption, emerging innovations • Environmental – protection laws and standards, rate of resource usage • Legal – trade regulations, employee protections, competitive regulations Depending on the scope of your exploration it may also be necessary to expand the PESTEL framework to the incorporate other elements like Healthcare or Education. To use the framework, dive deep and search far and wide to uncover and plot trends and drivers within each category. The more populated you can build your PESTEL framework the more rich your scenarios will become. It is helpful to remember that you are looking for trends (visible cultural change), drivers (less visible change), and defining moments or events. The next step of the process will take the work you have complied within the analysis and plot it against an Impact and Uncertainty Matrix. TIP: As you gather data and conduct your environmental scan, it is helpful to also explore the “not-so-real” environment as well with science fiction. Science fiction can provide an interesting lens to further explore plausible futures and technologies. Not every science fiction choice must be focused on domed Martian cities; however, there are many fantastical technologies from classic science fiction that have inspired current and emerging technologies of today. Fiction isn’t the only lens to explore either; Peter Schwartz encourages seeking out “remarkable people” those who are on the frontiers of science, creativity, and doing the impossible. These people can be looked to as inspirations and sources of insight whether they are entrepreneurs, scientists, artists, or public figures.
  • 14.
    14 POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIALTECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL LEGAL Government Subsidies City Government Deepening the River Xenophobia Slowness Zoning Laws City Ordinance Legal Barriers “Old Guard” Innovation Hubs Poverty Death by Committee Gerry Mandering “Local” Startups New Business Growth Innovation Built Environment (Architecture, etc.) Real Estate Tourism Working Poor Industry/ Manufacturing Port City Experience Economy Seasonality Parenthood/ Child Planning Community Mindset “The Who You Know” Factor Arts Culture Pocket Communities Walkable/Bikeable City Startup Culture Coworking and 3rd Spaces Foodie Region Rise of Social Media Ability to Remote Work Social Profiles Lean Startup Information Access Emerging Smart Cities Using Technology for Civic Engagement Increasing Cost of Oil Community “Greening” Social Entrepreneurship Cradle to Cradle Changing Perceptions to Commuting Structure of Cities/Urban Development Increasing Populations Tourism Greenspacing Rising Culture of Community Sustainability New Laws Emerging Urban Plans Legal Approach to Addressing Poverty JOBS Act Healthcare Legislation Equity Crowdfunding Fig. 3: PESTEL Analysis PESTEL FRAMEWORK
  • 15.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 15 POLITICAL ECONOMICSOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL LEGAL PESTEL FRAMEWORK
  • 16.
    16 STEP 4: IMPACT& UNCERTAINTY With a robust PESTEL analysis compiled we can turn to understanding Impact and Uncertainty. The Impact and Uncertainty Matrix (IUM) is a tool developed from Ian Wilson and Bill Ralston’s Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times, which allows us to explore how various trends and drivers might affect the venture. The IUM is a lens to identify those trends and drivers that might play out in the most critically unknown ways. As a framework it can be used either simply as a 2x2 or 3x3 matrix (Fig. 4) with the y-axis assessing uncertainty and the x-axis examining impact. You can complete the framework as a two-step process (Fig. 5 & 6): PHASE: 1 HOW TO RATE UNCERTAINTY? Begin by plotting your trends and drivers across the y-axis of uncertainty. How might we best asses the level of uncertainty? You can think of uncertainty by leveraging it to initial criteria with the first being, how visible is this already in reality? For example, nano technology is becoming big in the news; however, its direct application within the market space is still limited. The second criterion is timescale. If nano technology is still largely in the R&D phase, how long might it take to fully come to reality, 10 to 20 years? If this is the case one could say that this driver might be somewhere along the middle of the y-axis, because we know it will be coming. UNCERTAINTY IMPACT LOWH IGH LOWHIGH Fig. 4: Impact & Uncertainty Matrix
  • 17.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 17 PHASE 2:HOW TO RATE IMPACT? Once you have completed Step 1, you can begin to translate your PESTEL based on Impact. Impact can be rated from low to high based upon how much it will affect your scenario question. At this point in the exercise it is best to refrain from rating impact directly to your venture as this will narrow the focus of the scenario process. The outcome of this portion of the exercise is to gain better insight into those trends and drivers that have the highest levels of impact and uncertainty within the IUM. Those that fall within that critical area will be used to help frame the foundations of your strategic scenarios. UNCERTAINTY IMPACT LOWH IGH LOWHIGH UNCERTAINTY IMPACT LOWH IGH LOWHIGH Fig. 5: Phase 1 Fig. 6: Phase 2
  • 18.
    18 STEP 5: LEVERAGINGLOGIC AXIS Logic axis allow you to take the most interesting trends and drivers and explore how they interact and create scenario foundations. A logic axis is essentially a 2x2 diagram that takes two trends or drivers and compares them as extremes. You can use this to then think of exploratory scenario vignettes. You can begin by picking one trend and placing it on the center of a single axis and then identify two opposing outcomes. For example, if we use nano technology as a trend, on one end you might decide that it could be used for healthcare innovation, while on the other, it might be used for technological warfare (fig. 7). This can be done for a second trend or driver for the other axis. Once you have assembled a 2x2 you can then explore how these might come into play with one another in each of the four quadrants (fig. 8). Depending upon how complex you are looking to develop your scenario narratives, it is helpful to do a series of logic axis to visualize different vignettes within your story. The more you develop the more rich and varied your narratives can become. Use the blank templates on the following pages to guide your scenario development. Fig. 7: Logic Axis Structure TIP: If you are having trouble directly identifying how two extremes might come together or create a potential outcome it is encouraged you revisit your research and findings for added inspiration. It might also be helpful to use a mind map to explore how various elements come together as well as thinking in terms of analogy or comparison. EXTREME EXTREME TREND OR DRIVER
  • 19.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 19 Fig. 8:Scenario Vignette Structure EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME SCENARIO VIGNETTE 1 SCENARIO VIGNETTE 2 SCENARIO VIGNETTE 4 SCENARIO VIGNETTE 3
  • 20.
    20 STEP 6: BUILDINGSCENARIO NARRATIVES Now that you have complied a series of scenario vignettes along with your trends and drivers it is helpful to string them all together. This step in the process will leverage three phases, the first is a rating scale of importance of the vignettes; the second will focus on building the timelines through backcasting; and the third on the value of naming. PHASE 1: RATING RELEVANCE/IDENTIFYING CENTRAL THEMES The first step of this process to use the Scenario Score Card (SSC) (fig. 9) to identify key and central themes that will run through out the scenarios. The SSC is a tool to evaluate both relevance and major story elements while cataloging supporting and supplemental vignettes to build into the overall narratives. To use the SSC you must first identify four key factors that align within your central question that are a major focus for the scenario planning project. Using the example above for solar technology, four factors might include the diffusion of photovoltaic technology, changing consumer perspectives, increasing energy needs, and shifting economic relationships. Each of these factors play a part TIP: To align your factors even further, you can weight your factors in value and calculate a percentage for your averages. You can do this simply by assigning a priority percent for each factor such as Factor A might have 25% relevance while Factor D might only have 13%. Once you have chosen your Likert score for the proto-scenario you can then multiply each by the weight score add the percentages to calculate the totals. within the guiding scope of the project and each scenario vignette should be rated on a 1-5 or 1-10 scale for relevance. Refer to the tip section below for more information on how to weight your vignettes. If you chose to build several vignettes in Step 6, you will find that some become more central than others; however, you can still leverage the less important ones to build more dynamic stories.
  • 21.
    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 21 SCENARIO VIGNETTE DESCRIPTION ALIGNMENT TO CENTRALQUESTION(S) PLAUSIBILITY RELEVANCE TO F-P RELEVANCE TO PLAY BLINDS POTS/ CHALLENGES TOTAL AVERAGE Luxury Toy Toys as a high-end status symbol 3 4 5 2 1 4 2 1 5 1 4 5 2 5 3 2 3 5 3 4 5 2 1 4 2.5 3.5 4.5 3.5 2.25 4.5 Unstructured play and toys Toy AIs as educational support Play that allows communities to up cycle Toy AIs that grow with the child Pay that accounts for cradle-to-cradle Toys Environment Busy Parents Leasing Service for Toys Toys as Guardians Lifecycle Toys Fig. 9: Scenario Rate Card Sample SCENARIO RATE CARDS
  • 22.
    22 SCENARIO RATE CARDS SCENARIO VIGNETTE DESCRIPTION ALIGNMENTTO CENTRAL QUESTION(S) FACTOR A (WEIGHT %) FACTOR B (WEIGHT %) FACTOR C (WEIGHT %) FACTOR D (WEIGHT %) TOTAL
  • 23.
  • 24.
    24 STEP 6: BUILDINGSCENARIO NARRATIVES PHASE 2: PLOTTING YOUR NARRATIVES Now we have arrived at the most fun part within the scenario planning process, building scenario narratives. Strategic scenario planning is not about building one sole futurescape, but rather it is best to build four or five core scenario narratives. The reason for this is that one scenario is too limiting; two scenarios can be seen as it will be this or that; and three scenarios are typically viewed as good, bad, and somewhere in the middle. This is why four or five make for a stronger position. Furthermore, scenarios should also not be seen as entirely negative or entirely positive, just like reality, they are a mixture of both good, bad, and a lot of gray. To build strong and rich narratives you must incorporate a mixture of both good and bad. Fig. 10: Backcasting There is no single way to write a scenario narrative; however the most helpful process is to leverage a technique called backcasting (fig. 10). Backcasting allows us to envision our future scenario; set to the end of the time scale, and build backwards all the elements and things that might take place between then and now. SCENARIO FUTURESCAPE PRESENT MAJOR EVENT
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    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 25 Fig. 11:Building Time Waves How you imagine the future scenario is up to you, but it is a useful to visualize the story at this point. On the following you page you can use the sample blank storyboards to help draw out key events as you work through your stories. You can use your highest rated vignettes to form the central story for each of your scenarios and set them as an end state. It is helpful to write a brief paragraph about what this future looks like underneath. As you frame your description also take into account the many different supporting and supplemental vignettes that might also impact that future and begin placing them along a timeline. The additional vignettes provide an approach build in variability, or “time waves” (fig. 11), within the overall story. Time waves allow you to add in the good, the bad, and the ugly to craft a more vibrant story. Your scenarios should be compiled into a simple two to three page write-ups that not only document the end state, but highlight what has led up that as well. It may also be useful to include, as notes, which vignettes went into the piece. PHASE 3: SCENARIO NAMING The last step focuses on naming. The name given to your scenario should be thoughtful and thought provoking. How you name your scenarios helps to define their strength and plausibility. Titles such as “Cross Roads” can imply many things, especially as they relate to your central question and the storylines themselves. You have just completed your initial set of scenarios, but the method is not quite over yet. In the following steps you will revisit the BMC in the context of your scenarios and learn how to identify weak signals and benchmarks. TIME WAVES & SCENARIO VIGNETTES PRESENT POSITIVE EVENTS NEGATIVE EVENTS
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    28 STEP 7: ESTABLISHINGWEAK SIGNALS How do you identify weak signals and what are they really? A weak signal can be thought of as an emerging indicator to take note of. Identifying weak signals can have a major impact for your environmental scans and strategic planning. To identify potential signals refer back to your scenario narratives and look for unique pressures that align to your central question and key factors. Weak signals can come in a variety of different forms and may emerge from within wholly unexpected industries. The Weak Signal Rate Card (fig. 12) is a simple tool for keeping track of weak signals. You can use these indicators and examine how they might change over time. As they evolve, if they do at all, it is good revisit them to see if their level of impact has changed. You can use the blank Weak Signal Cards to track your own. Weak signals not only act as benchmarks to react to, but they provide a greater opportunity to become proactive based on the new context. If these pressures were to become true, how might we find and build new or better offerings? Are their certain elements that broadly affect our competitors as well? How might this create a strategic niche? These are all elements that can be explored in the context of the scenario planning process.
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    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 29 Fig. 11:Example Weak Signal Rate Card on Nano Technology for Health Care WEAK SIGNAL RATE CARD TIME FRAME TO MONITOR LEVEL OF IMPACT INDICATOR NAME: INDICATOR DESCRIPTION: HOW WILL WE KNOW? HOW MIGHT WE TRACK IT? HOW MIGHT WE RESPOND? IMPACT FACTOR PRIMARY: IMPACT FACTOR SECONDARY: NEAR MID LONG LOW MID HIGH Nano Technology Nano technology is the approach to using microscopic robots programmed to find, build, or remove any number of problems. In health care nano bots could be used to repair damaged organs and fight chronic diseases such as cancer that kill millions every year. We will know this indicator is coming into reality once more prototypes begin moving into the testing and exploration phases of R&D. Nano tech, might emerge and mature in some market sectors faster than others might. We can track this in a number of ways such as published research papers, emerging developed prototypes, and startups focusing nano technology as a reality, not purely science fiction. One option is to invest in nano technology and help spur it on early as a market entrant. A second option would be to reposition our offerings as a cheaper, still value driven approach, especially early on. Immunology Manufacturing
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    30 WEAK SIGNAL RATECARD TIME FRAME TO MONITOR LEVEL OF IMPACT INDICATOR NAME: INDICATOR DESCRIPTION: HOW WILL WE KNOW? HOW MIGHT WE TRACK IT? HOW MIGHT WE RESPOND? IMPACT FACTOR PRIMARY: IMPACT FACTOR SECONDARY: NEAR MID LONG LOW MID HIGH
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    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 31 WEAK SIGNALRATE CARD TIME FRAME TO MONITOR LEVEL OF IMPACT INDICATOR NAME: INDICATOR DESCRIPTION: HOW WILL WE KNOW? HOW MIGHT WE TRACK IT? HOW MIGHT WE RESPOND? IMPACT FACTOR PRIMARY: IMPACT FACTOR SECONDARY: NEAR MID LONG LOW MID HIGH
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    32 STEP 8: REVISITINGTHE BMC Throughout this exercise you have learned how to frame, build, and identify strategic scenarios for your organization. Step 9 focuses on revisiting your Business Model Canvas (BMC) from within your scenario narratives. You can begin by looking at your current state business model and your Weak Signal Rate Cards (WSRC) to mark where on your timeline key pivot points may take place. It is helpful to remember, that these indicators are not a definitive prediction; however, they are plausible, fact-based assumptions given the data you have. How the actual future might come to be, might be faster, slower, or not at all depending on the situation. Once you have marked a handful of various benchmarks along your scenario timelines, you can begin to rework your BMC based on the situation. How might things change? In what ways might you react? If this situation were to emerge as true, would it necessarily be a bad thing? How might we reframe a negative situation into a positive opportunity? As you work your way around your new BMCs, think about how you might set the seeds strategically to explore some of your identified opportunities.
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    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 33 STEP 9:ADAPT & REVISIT OVER TIME The scenarios that you have now constructed should be a part of an ongoing process of exploration and discovery. Only time will tell which aspects of your scenario may become true and which may not. Strategic scenario planning is a method for helping your organization be adaptable, agile, and flexible in the context of an ever-shifting world. Your scenarios should not be set in stone, but rather use them as a guiding light into an uncertain future. As time goes forward it is healthy to rethink and revisit your scenarios by exploring new options and new opportunities as information comes to light. This is a part of a much more broad strategic thinking position called Adaptive Planning, which focuses on iterative scenario planning and looking future-forward. You can use this position within your organization to better understand how changing, disruptive events might play out and affect the venture. Now that you have the tools and methods, use them and build upon them as you frame your strategic positioning. The frameworks are simple, but the process is powerful.
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    34 CONCLUSION You now havea robust set of scenarios, identified weak signals, and a new set of potentially identified opportunities and pivots, but so what? If no one can reasonably predict the future, what value does this actually create for me? To answer this we have to look back at the venture’s strategy and its where to play and how to win positioning. When you understand where you are and where you want to go it is much easier to explore a wider array of plausible futures to help you get there. The value add of strategic scenario planning is that it provides teams a better, more rich set narratives to understand how the orga- nization can better prepare to respond, but adapt as time moves on. Your scenarios should be used to build support for your current strategic efforts. This process is just one methodology that should be integrated into the business’s strategic thinking approach.
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    JETPACK© Scenario Identification www.jumpstartjetpack.com 35 RESOURCES Diamandis, PeterH. and Steven Kotler. Abundance: the future is better than you think. New York, NY: Free Press, 2012. Courtney, Hugh. 20/20 foresight: crafting strategy in an uncertain world. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2001. Kurzweil, Ray. The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York, NY: Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 2005. Schwartz, Peter. Inevitable surprises: thinking ahead in a time of turbulence. New York, NY: Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 2003. Schwartz, Peter. Art of the Long View. New York, NY: Random House, Inc., 1991. Strauss, William and Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. New York, NY: Broadway Books, 1997. Van der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2006.
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    36 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Iam a designer, entrepreneur, and researcher who has a deep love for design, technology, and enabling better experiences for consumers. My background has been in strategic planning, brand development, CX, design research and management. Over the course of my career I’ve worked with startups, SMEs, nonprofits and Fortune 500s to build brands, products and services, and craft transformative strategies through deep consumer insights. In 2013 I began co-creating JETPACK© for my MFA thesis work on how to leverage design as a methodology for entrepreneurship. This was done alongside the team at Volta Collaborative, Savannah College of Art and Design, and the entrepreneurial economy of Savannah. I believe that design is a critical necessity for any startup and as a process it should be leveraged early and often. By using design as a lens to approach challenges and identify opportunities we can better develop offerings and value propositions that deliver on customer needs and desires in unique and consumer-focused ways. - Caleb Sexton, Founder/Designer info@jumpstartjetpack.com www.hiimcaleb.me www.jumpstartjetpack.com
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