Presentation of Joaquim Seabra for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle" Apresentação de Joaquim Bento Ferreira realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle " Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/ 11 e 12 de novembro de 2009 Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5

1. Energy and GHG
emission balances:
CTBE's proposal
Joaquim E. A. Seabra
NIPE/Unicamp
jeaseabra@gmail.com
Workshop CTBE
November 11, 2009

2. Agenda
• Introduc=on / context
• Objec=ve
• Ethanol LCA: an overview
• CTBE’s program
• Summary

3. Agenda
• Introduc=on / context
• Objec=ve
• Ethanol LCA: an overview
• CTBE’s program
• Summary

4. IntroducGon / context
• Short‐term problems related to energy supply:
• Oil produc=on close to peak;
• Necessity to reduce GHG emissions;
• Bioenergy is part of the solu=on;
• Today sugarcane ethanol can mi=gate more than 80%
of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions with respect to
petroleum gasoline;
• For the future, improvements are foreseen, with the
implementa=on of new technologies in the ethanol
produc=on chain;
• We need proper tools to evaluate technology
alterna=ves and lead RD&D efforts towards the
improvement of ethanol sustainability.

5. Agenda
• Introduc=on / context
• Objec=ve
• Ethanol LCA: an overview
• CTBE’s program
• Summary

6. ObjecGve
• The objec=ve of this program is the con=nuous
improvement in the evalua=on of the GHG emissions in
the sugarcane ethanol life cycle and, consequently, the
same regarding the avoided emissions with respect to
the corresponding gasoline life cycle. By con=nuous
improvement it is meant the increasing accuracy of the
analysis with respect to the Brazilian condi=ons of
produc=on and the expanding scope of the evaluated
alterna=ves.
• Use the LCA methodology to iden=fy the technology
op=ons, in the current and prospec=ve scenarios, that
could benefit environmental sustainability (energy
balance and GHG emissions) of sugarcane ethanol.

7. Agenda
• Introduc=on / context
• Objec=ve
• Ethanol LCA: an overview
• CTBE’s program
• Summary

8. Sugarcane ethanol LCA: an overview
• Macedo and Seabra (2008):
– 2006: 44 mills (~100 Mtc/year) of Brazilian C‐S
Region – data from CTC Mutual Control.
– 2020 Electricity Scenario: trash recovery (40%)
and surplus power produc=on with integrated
commercial, steam based cycle (CEST system).
– 2020 Ethanol Scenario: trash recovery and
ethanol produc=on from biochemical conversion
of surplus biomass in a hypothe=cal system
integrated to the mill.

9. Scenarios

10. Scope
• Sugarcane produc=on and processing, and ethanol
distribu=on.
– Carbon fluxes due to fossil fuel u=liza=on in agriculture,
industry and ethanol distribu=on; in all the process inputs;
also in equipment and buildings produc=on and
maintenance.
– GHG fluxes not related with the use of fossil fuels; mainly
N2O and methane: trash burning, N2O soil emissions from
N‐fer=lizer and residues (including s=llage, filter cake,
trash).
– GHG emissions due to land use change.
– GHG emissions mi=ga=on: ethanol and surplus electricity
subs=tu=on for gasoline or conven=onal electricity.

11. Energy flows in ethanol producGon
(MJ/t cane)

12. Life cycle GHG emissions
(kg CO2eq/m3 anhydrous)

13. SensiGvity analysis (2006)

14. Avoided emissions
(t CO2eq/m3 hydrous or anhydrous)
Note: substitution criterion for co-products; no LUC effects

15. GHG emissions miGgaGon with respect to
gasoline: allocaGon or co‐products credits

16. Direct effects of land use change for
ethanol
• 1984‐2002: 11.8 to 12.5 M m3/year → no LUC for ethanol.

17. Direct effects of land use change
• Cane expansion since 2002 was over pasture lands
(mainly extensive, degraded pastures) and annual
crops:
– Data source: satellite images (Landsate and CBERS),
CONAB survey (MAPA/DCAA), IBGE data and preliminary
IEA‐RIMA data for new units (Nassar et al., 2008; CONAB,
2008; ICONE, 2008).
• This fact in addi=on to cropping prac=ces in the new
areas (mechanical harves=ng of unburned cane; semi‐
perennial crop; high level of residues) indicates that
land use change occurs without soil carbon emissions.
In many cases, the land use change may increase
carbon stocks.

18. Direct effects of land use change
Expansion includes only a very small frac=on of lands with high soil carbon stocks,
and some degraded pasturelands, leading to increased carbon stocks.

19. INDIRECT effects of land use change
In the Brazilian context, most scenarios (based on Internal
Demand plus some hypotheses for exports) indicate a total
of ~ 60 M m3 ethanol in 2020, or 36 M m3 more than in
2008. Such expansion corresponds to a rela=vely small
requirement for new cane areas (~5 M ha), which must be
considered combined with probable release of areas due to
the progressive increase of pasture produc=vi=es. Within
Brazilian soil and climate limita=ons, the strict applica=on
of the environmental legisla=on for the new units, and the
rela=vely small areas needed, the expansion of sugarcane
un=l 2020 is not expected to contribute to ILUC GHG
emissions.

20. Other analyses
• CARB (CA_GREET + GTAP)
• Database.
• Ocean tankers back‐haul
trip.
• LUC: 46 g CO2e/MJ

21. Other analyses

22. Other analysis
• US EPA (FAPRI + GREET)
• Very comprehensive
analysis
• Database.
• Timeframe.
• Ocean tankers back‐haul
trip.
• Electricity credits
evalua=on.

23. Other analyses

24. LCA methodological aspects
• Database quality;
• Scope of the analysis;
• Co‐products:
– Alloca=on (mass, energy, market value, other);
– Subs=tu=on.
• LUC and ILUC;
• Biorefineries.

25. LCA models / approach
Source: Delucchi (2009)

26. Defaults suitability
Measured vs. IPCC EsGmated N2O Emissions
(Corn)
Source: Hamield (2009)

27. Influence of co‐products
Source: Wang et al. (2009)

29. Tools for ILUC analysis (?)
Source: Babcock (2009)

30. Agenda
• Introduc=on / context
• Objec=ve
• Ethanol LCA: an overview
• CTBE’s program
• Summary

31. CTBE’s proposal on GHG emissions
analysis
• Database consolida=on:
– Sugarcane produc=on and processing;
– Advanced technologies;
– Na=onal parameters for LCA studies (fer=lizers,
electricity, fossil fuels, etc.);
– Experimental results on CH4 and N2O emissions in
sugarcane produc=on chain;
– Above and below ground Carbon stocks for different
crops (and na=ve vegeta=on).
• LCA studies for fossil fuels and biodiesel in Brazil;
• Work on current models to evaluate land use
change (e.g., BLUM‐ICONE);

32. CTBE’s proposal on GHG emissions
analysis
• Ethanol LCA studies:
– Well‐to‐wheels analysis;
– Focus on energy balance (fossil vs renewable) and
GHG emissions;
– Two and three regression levels;
– Use of GREET model defaults in the short‐term;
– Development of dedicated spreadsheets for analyses;
– Methodology analysis:
• Co‐products credits;
• System boundaries;
– LUC and ILUC analysis;
– GHG emissions mi=ga=on.

33. Agenda
• Introduc=on / context
• Objec=ve
• Ethanol LCA: an overview
• CTBE’s program
• Summary

34. Project GHG emissions along the life‐cycle of ethanol produced from
sugarcane – and avoided emissions regarding gasoline
Ac=on GHG emission balances should be done regularly
Aims (synthesis) Enhancement of the GHG balances, considering: (a) more
accurate parameters and (b) changes in the produc=on process
(tendencies and technology disrup=on)
CTBE's role Balances should be done by an expert of CTBE on regular basis
Partnerships CTBE is open for discussion
At least one research group abroad should be partner
Availability of informa=on Data basis should be organized in order to be publicly available
Dissemina=on Papers should be published at high level journals
Aoendance at conferences and workshops
Results to be achieved ‐ Compiled database on: sugarcane produc=on and processing;
aper one year fer=lizers produc=on and distribu=on; fossil fuels produc=on and
distribu=on (preliminary results).
‐ Analysis of different alloca=on methodologies for co‐products
evalua=on, considering different co‐products (sugar, yeasts, lysine,
bagasse, electricity, etc.)
‐ Ethanol LCA studies considering the adop=on of different
commercial technologies in the ethanol fuel chain (e.g., co‐
produc=on of biodiesel and ethanol (Barralcool experience)).

35. Thank you
Joaquim E. A. Seabra
jeaseabra@gmail.com