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TRANSMISSION REINFORCEMENT
SECURING ENERGY SUPPLY WITH
A DIVERSIFIED ENERGY MIX
INTRODUCTION
• Transmission reinforcement requirements
to ensure security of supply in a low
carbon system
• Potential challenges in deploying the
transmission capacity
• Consents statistics and typical timelines
• Lessons learned
• Potential opportunities to de-risk projects
SCOTLAND - GENERATION
2014
Peak demand = 5.4 GW
Current generation capacity = 11 GW
35% installed capacity = wind
44% installed capacity = thermal
Derated capacity = 6.8 GW
Capacity margin = 22%
2030
Peak demand = 5.14 – 5.62 GW
Generation capacity = 14 - 19 GW
60 – 70 % installed capacity = wind
Derated capacity = 4.64 – 6.10 GW
Capacity margin = -18 to +18%
ADDITIONAL GRID CAPACITY THROUGH REINFORCEMENT
4.35 GW in design at
pre-consent stage
Includes Beauly to Denny
400 kV, Caithness to
Moray, Beauly to Kintore
275 kV.
2.25 GW in design at
pre-consent stage
Includes Shetland,
Orkney, Western Isles,
and various radial
projects.
3.36 GW at
optioneering stage
Includes Eastern HVDC
bootstrap, East of Beauly
(Beauly – Kintore).
INTERCONNECTOR CAPACITY
Interconnectors 2013 -
2020
4.8 GW
FAB & IFA2, France (2.4
GW)
Viking Link, Denmark (1
GW)
NSN, Norway (1.4 GW)
Interconnectors 2020 -
2030
10 GW+
Ireland, Belgium, Spain,
France, Iceland, Norway,
Denmark?
BARRIERS TO DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL GRID CAPACITY
Coordination in
planning between
onshore/offshore grid
Capacity market design
CFD for Western Isles
EU-wide market
Integration,
interconnectors
Delays in planning and
delivery of infrastructure
onshore wind, 43
hydro, 21
offshore wind, 11
wave & tidal, 5
renewable thermal,
3
non-renewable thermal, 4
overhead
transmission lines
(EIA), 21
Total Projects
Consented = 124
PLANNING STATISTICS 2007 - 2015
DECISION TIMESCALES (SECTION 36 AND 37)
0 5 10 15 20
9 months or less
9-12 months
12-18 months
18-24 months
24 months or more
Number of decisions
DECISION TIMESCALES (SECTION 37)
0 5 10 15
9 months or less
9-12 months
12-18 months
18-24 months
24 months or more
Number of decisions
BEAULY – DENNY 400 KV TIMELINE
January – Consent granted
(subject to 313 conditions)
116 pre construction conditions
NPF2 is published
Identification of
project need
Jack McConnel is FM
Longannet coal mine
closure
Falkirk wheel opens
10% of electrical
demand from
renewables (largely
hydro)
Public
consultation on
draft routes
opposition
groups begin to
form
Crystal Rigg WF,
Scottish Borders
commissioned
First NPF
published
Application for s.37 consent
for 220 km route made in
September
Hadyard Hill WF
STERN REVIEW
published
Italy win the
World cup
April – Consultation
concludes with
objections from
CNPA, Falkirk,
Stirling and PK
Councils
August – PLI ordered
Alex Salmond is FM,
SNP minority
government
Target for 50% of
electricity from
renewables by 2020
February – December
PLI Sessions
February - Reporters
Findings Published
Project completion
scheduled for late
2015/early 2016
London Olympics
February - SPT submits
SVIMS
November - Woodland felling
& access track construction
begins in SHET area
Connections enabled
for WFs including
Beinneun, Bhlariadh,
Stronelairg by
Beauly Denny
100% of electricity
demand to be met
by renewables by
2020
35% of electrical
demand supplied by
renewables in 2011
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009 2011
2016
2012
2017
July – First
section from
Beauly to Fort
Augustus
electrified
2013
OLD NEWS?
“Campaigners fear another
Beauly-Denny-style “ravaging”
of the landscape after power
company chiefs refused to rule
out building more huge pylons
in the Highlands”
Press and Journal, 11 September 2014
LESSONS LEARNED
• Early and ongoing consultation essential
• Improved media and community liaison
• Coordinated and transparent approaches
• PLI and public hearings are not a good
forum for solving problems
CASE STUDY –
INNOVATION
IN ROUTE
SELECTION
• GIS heat mapping used to
inform strategic corridor
selection
• Charrette style consultation
workshops to bring consultees
on board
• Acceptance that project need is
not open for debate
• Problem solving addressed
through partnership at the
early stage
TYPICAL PROCESS
• Project Need
• Internal working
document to
define project
need. Forms key
part of later
public
consultation.
• Corridor
Assessment
• Strategic
assessment of
corridors. Use
MCA/GIS to
analyse key
constraints.
• Public
consultation on
corridors.
• Route Options
• Develop route
options within
preferred
corridor.
• Public
consultation on
preferred route.
• Proposed Route
• Proposed route
finalised
following
consultation.
• Additional
consultation if
necessary.
• EIA process
• Scoping. Time
critical surveys
(eg min 1 yr bird
survey). Impact
assessment.
• Application
• Minimum 9 months
for determination
0 – 6 months 6 – 12 months 12 – 18 months 18 – 24 months 24 – 36 months
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
• Transmission reinforcement is a
key driver of security of supply in
moving to a low carbon system
• Planning represents a significant
challenge in deploying the
transmission capacity
• Opportunities to de-risk projects
require implementation by a range
of stakeholders
THANK YOU
Peter Bruce
Senior Consultant
pbruce@environcorp.com

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ALLENERGY2015_6515

  • 1. TRANSMISSION REINFORCEMENT SECURING ENERGY SUPPLY WITH A DIVERSIFIED ENERGY MIX
  • 2. INTRODUCTION • Transmission reinforcement requirements to ensure security of supply in a low carbon system • Potential challenges in deploying the transmission capacity • Consents statistics and typical timelines • Lessons learned • Potential opportunities to de-risk projects
  • 3. SCOTLAND - GENERATION 2014 Peak demand = 5.4 GW Current generation capacity = 11 GW 35% installed capacity = wind 44% installed capacity = thermal Derated capacity = 6.8 GW Capacity margin = 22% 2030 Peak demand = 5.14 – 5.62 GW Generation capacity = 14 - 19 GW 60 – 70 % installed capacity = wind Derated capacity = 4.64 – 6.10 GW Capacity margin = -18 to +18%
  • 4. ADDITIONAL GRID CAPACITY THROUGH REINFORCEMENT 4.35 GW in design at pre-consent stage Includes Beauly to Denny 400 kV, Caithness to Moray, Beauly to Kintore 275 kV. 2.25 GW in design at pre-consent stage Includes Shetland, Orkney, Western Isles, and various radial projects. 3.36 GW at optioneering stage Includes Eastern HVDC bootstrap, East of Beauly (Beauly – Kintore).
  • 5. INTERCONNECTOR CAPACITY Interconnectors 2013 - 2020 4.8 GW FAB & IFA2, France (2.4 GW) Viking Link, Denmark (1 GW) NSN, Norway (1.4 GW) Interconnectors 2020 - 2030 10 GW+ Ireland, Belgium, Spain, France, Iceland, Norway, Denmark?
  • 6. BARRIERS TO DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL GRID CAPACITY Coordination in planning between onshore/offshore grid Capacity market design CFD for Western Isles EU-wide market Integration, interconnectors Delays in planning and delivery of infrastructure
  • 7. onshore wind, 43 hydro, 21 offshore wind, 11 wave & tidal, 5 renewable thermal, 3 non-renewable thermal, 4 overhead transmission lines (EIA), 21 Total Projects Consented = 124 PLANNING STATISTICS 2007 - 2015
  • 8. DECISION TIMESCALES (SECTION 36 AND 37) 0 5 10 15 20 9 months or less 9-12 months 12-18 months 18-24 months 24 months or more Number of decisions
  • 9. DECISION TIMESCALES (SECTION 37) 0 5 10 15 9 months or less 9-12 months 12-18 months 18-24 months 24 months or more Number of decisions
  • 10. BEAULY – DENNY 400 KV TIMELINE January – Consent granted (subject to 313 conditions) 116 pre construction conditions NPF2 is published Identification of project need Jack McConnel is FM Longannet coal mine closure Falkirk wheel opens 10% of electrical demand from renewables (largely hydro) Public consultation on draft routes opposition groups begin to form Crystal Rigg WF, Scottish Borders commissioned First NPF published Application for s.37 consent for 220 km route made in September Hadyard Hill WF STERN REVIEW published Italy win the World cup April – Consultation concludes with objections from CNPA, Falkirk, Stirling and PK Councils August – PLI ordered Alex Salmond is FM, SNP minority government Target for 50% of electricity from renewables by 2020 February – December PLI Sessions February - Reporters Findings Published Project completion scheduled for late 2015/early 2016 London Olympics February - SPT submits SVIMS November - Woodland felling & access track construction begins in SHET area Connections enabled for WFs including Beinneun, Bhlariadh, Stronelairg by Beauly Denny 100% of electricity demand to be met by renewables by 2020 35% of electrical demand supplied by renewables in 2011 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2002 2004 2006 2007 2009 2011 2016 2012 2017 July – First section from Beauly to Fort Augustus electrified 2013
  • 11. OLD NEWS? “Campaigners fear another Beauly-Denny-style “ravaging” of the landscape after power company chiefs refused to rule out building more huge pylons in the Highlands” Press and Journal, 11 September 2014
  • 12. LESSONS LEARNED • Early and ongoing consultation essential • Improved media and community liaison • Coordinated and transparent approaches • PLI and public hearings are not a good forum for solving problems
  • 13. CASE STUDY – INNOVATION IN ROUTE SELECTION
  • 14. • GIS heat mapping used to inform strategic corridor selection • Charrette style consultation workshops to bring consultees on board • Acceptance that project need is not open for debate • Problem solving addressed through partnership at the early stage
  • 15. TYPICAL PROCESS • Project Need • Internal working document to define project need. Forms key part of later public consultation. • Corridor Assessment • Strategic assessment of corridors. Use MCA/GIS to analyse key constraints. • Public consultation on corridors. • Route Options • Develop route options within preferred corridor. • Public consultation on preferred route. • Proposed Route • Proposed route finalised following consultation. • Additional consultation if necessary. • EIA process • Scoping. Time critical surveys (eg min 1 yr bird survey). Impact assessment. • Application • Minimum 9 months for determination 0 – 6 months 6 – 12 months 12 – 18 months 18 – 24 months 24 – 36 months
  • 16. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS • Transmission reinforcement is a key driver of security of supply in moving to a low carbon system • Planning represents a significant challenge in deploying the transmission capacity • Opportunities to de-risk projects require implementation by a range of stakeholders
  • 17. THANK YOU Peter Bruce Senior Consultant pbruce@environcorp.com