The document provides forecasts for the Aruban economy and selected international economies. It projects that the Aruban economy will expand by 0.4% in 2016, driven by the restart and upgrading of the oil refinery. International forecasts show continued low growth in Latin America and weakness in Europe. Commodity prices are expected to rise slightly in the coming years.
European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020 PresentationOndřej Hudeček
https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2020-economic-forecast-deep-and-uneven-recession-uncertain-recovery
European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and
economic developments prepared by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and
Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council
of the European Union and the European Parliament.
Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
After just a year of moderate growth, the momentum of the EU economy began to slow in spring 2014. In
the second half of this year, GDP growth in the EU is set to be very modest, while in the euro area it will
almost stagnate. Among the largest euro area Member States, we see growth increasing in Spain where
unemployment remains very high, growth coming to a stop in Germany after a very strong first quarter,
protracted stagnation in France, and contraction in Italy. Financial markets have adjusted sharply in recent
weeks as the prospect of more modest growth, not just in Europe but globally, has ended a period of yield
hunting and risk compression.
European Economic Forecast - Winter 2015Diana Sirghi
The European Economy series contains important reports and communications from the Commission
to the Council and the Parliament on the economy and economic developments
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/.
Volumes of transactions doubled in 2015 compared to 2014,
with the amount of disposed loans reaching €19 billion at the
end of last year. Q1 2016 began with €5 billion new deals in
the market, both in consumer, secured and secured leasing
areas.
The Government has put in place various reforms to give a
clearer and leaner context for NPL market players: acting on
improving procedures and shortening foreclosure timelines
via legal and regulatory measures; facilitating NPL portfolio
funding (GACS) and improving the tax regime.
In the meantime the investor base is confirming its interest
and commitment to the Italian market, not only through
portfolio investments but also via more complex structured
deals involving platforms and financial institutions.
In addition, there is the new role of the recently formed
Atlante fund: will it be an accelerator of deal flow or will its
impact be marginal given its limited capitalisation? Will it be
counterproductive by improving the situation of a few selected
banks but at the cost of increasing, directly or indirectly, the
NPE exposures of healthier banking institutions and
increasing interlinkage?
With gross NPE stock in excess of €340 billion and pressures
on banks to reduce these exposures, Italy remains one of the
largest global markets for Non-Performing Assets.
There is greater government and regulatory support for, and
commitment to, the sale and resolution of NPL credits versus
prior market cycles to accelerate bank sector rehabilitation
and improvement to the real economy. In addition, banking
sector wide pressures imply a more comprehensive NPL sales
cycle than prior Italian NPL market cycles.
Is the NPL volcano ready to erupt?
European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020 PresentationOndřej Hudeček
https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2020-economic-forecast-deep-and-uneven-recession-uncertain-recovery
European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and
economic developments prepared by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and
Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council
of the European Union and the European Parliament.
Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
After just a year of moderate growth, the momentum of the EU economy began to slow in spring 2014. In
the second half of this year, GDP growth in the EU is set to be very modest, while in the euro area it will
almost stagnate. Among the largest euro area Member States, we see growth increasing in Spain where
unemployment remains very high, growth coming to a stop in Germany after a very strong first quarter,
protracted stagnation in France, and contraction in Italy. Financial markets have adjusted sharply in recent
weeks as the prospect of more modest growth, not just in Europe but globally, has ended a period of yield
hunting and risk compression.
European Economic Forecast - Winter 2015Diana Sirghi
The European Economy series contains important reports and communications from the Commission
to the Council and the Parliament on the economy and economic developments
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/.
Volumes of transactions doubled in 2015 compared to 2014,
with the amount of disposed loans reaching €19 billion at the
end of last year. Q1 2016 began with €5 billion new deals in
the market, both in consumer, secured and secured leasing
areas.
The Government has put in place various reforms to give a
clearer and leaner context for NPL market players: acting on
improving procedures and shortening foreclosure timelines
via legal and regulatory measures; facilitating NPL portfolio
funding (GACS) and improving the tax regime.
In the meantime the investor base is confirming its interest
and commitment to the Italian market, not only through
portfolio investments but also via more complex structured
deals involving platforms and financial institutions.
In addition, there is the new role of the recently formed
Atlante fund: will it be an accelerator of deal flow or will its
impact be marginal given its limited capitalisation? Will it be
counterproductive by improving the situation of a few selected
banks but at the cost of increasing, directly or indirectly, the
NPE exposures of healthier banking institutions and
increasing interlinkage?
With gross NPE stock in excess of €340 billion and pressures
on banks to reduce these exposures, Italy remains one of the
largest global markets for Non-Performing Assets.
There is greater government and regulatory support for, and
commitment to, the sale and resolution of NPL credits versus
prior market cycles to accelerate bank sector rehabilitation
and improvement to the real economy. In addition, banking
sector wide pressures imply a more comprehensive NPL sales
cycle than prior Italian NPL market cycles.
Is the NPL volcano ready to erupt?
Content of the presentation
- What is risk
- Establishing Context
- Risk Identification
- Risk analysis and evaluation
- Risk Treatment
- Monitoring and review
- Case Study: The New Zealand Project
- Reference list
Prepared by Alper BENDER (University of Technology Sydney)
Az artikulációs tempó vizsgálata régi magyar filmekben. (= Ariculation rate i...Akos Gocsal
This is a presentation given at the Beszédkutatás 2013 konferencia / Speech Research 2013 Conference, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Reasearch Institute for Linguistics (Budapest, november 14-15, 2013). There is a printed article in Hungarian but I'll be very happy to give an English summary of the results for those interested in the topic. Please contact me here.
Presentation plan
Articles
“Know Your Enemy”: Software Risk Management
"Stop promising miracles" – Wideband Delphi method
General project
LCA System Software Project Plan
Articles “Know Your Enemy”: Software Risk Management “Stop Promising miracles”Wideband Delphi method
What is the RISk?
A problem that can endanger the success of the project. It causes losses.
It can have a negative influence over the cost, planning and the quality of the project and for the team.
The Risk Management indetifies, addresses and solves the risk problems before they damage the project.
We can absorb the risk without allowing the avoiding of any measure (action) or to eliminate them
RISk types
Incertitude – it strikes us exactly what we dont's know
Dependences – of the external factors
Request issues – we build the right product wrong or the wrong product
Management problems – makes the project harder to succeed
Lack of knowledge – drives to trainings, hiring more apropiate people
RISk Management
Apreciating the risk – identifying the potential risk zones
Identifying the risk – verifies the previewsly identified risks databases
Analizing the risk– verifies the outcoming of the project in accordance with the risk variables
The risk priority– focuses on the most severe risks
Avoiding the risk
Control the risk– it's the process of management of the risk
Keeping data about the risk– monitoring and solving each risk problem
Concluzions
From these articles we learned a few basic rules of how to better plan and develop a project and 14 good lessons about how to become a good manager
A manager is put to help people do their job better. They have to create good working conditions for the employees in order to do the job in time
We have to pay attention to the risk problems that may occur and to take the right measures to solve them
Articles – “Stop Promising miracles” Wideband Delphi method
must provide estimates for the work
but few of us are skillful estimators
this can be improved
principle that multiple heads are better than one.
Articles – “Stop Promising miracles” Wideband Delphi method
Wideband Delphi
can be used to estimate virtually anything:
the number of labor months needed
the lines of code or number of classes, etc.
Articles – “Stop Promising miracles” Wideband Delphi method
Articles – “Stop Promising miracles” Wideband Delphi method
Multicultural marketing is becoming increasingly important as the American market gets more diverse every day. In this presentation, you'll learn tips from brands that are already crushing their multi efforts, and take your own campaigns to the next level.
Trade and Development Report update 2024 - UNCTAD - United Nations Conference...Christina Parmionova
Developing economies have faced higher debt servicing costs, along with greater difficulty in securing new financing options, as a direct result of the prevailing tight international financial conditions.
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The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook, September 2015. Latest forecasts following ONS Second Estimate of GDP released at the end of August. We still forecast growth of 2.8% this year and into next despite the fears about China and sluggish growth in Europe.
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Keep your audience glued to their seats with professionally designed PPT slides. This deck comprises of total of sixty six slides. It has PPT templates with creative visuals and well researched content. Not just this, our PowerPoint professionals have crafted this deck with appropriate diagrams, layouts, icons, graphs, charts and more. This content ready presentation deck is fully editable. Just click the DOWNLOAD button below. Change the colour, text and font size. You can also modify the content as per your need. Get access to this well crafted complete deck presentation and leave your audience stunned. http://bit.ly/384Nzef
Monthly Business Assessment PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Presenting this set of slides with name - Monthly Business Assessment Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Enhance your audiences knowledge with this well researched complete deck. Showcase all the important features of the deck with perfect visuals. This deck comprises of total of sixtysix slides with each slide explained in detail. Each template comprises of professional diagrams and layouts. Our professional PowerPoint experts have also included icons, graphs and charts for your convenience. All you have to do is DOWNLOAD the deck. Make changes as per the requirement. Yes, these PPT slides are completely customizable. Edit the colour, text and font size. Add or delete the content from the slide. And leave your audience awestruck with the professionally designed Monthly Business Assessment Powerpoint Presentation Slides complete deck.
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Durante 2015, desaroyonan positivo den sector di turismo a sigui aporta na crecemento economico na Aruba. E resultado robusto den e ultimo a mas cu compensa pa e desaroyo debil den consumo y inversion domestico. Tanto consumo priva como consumo publico a mengua, cu e ultimo impacta pa logra e metanan defini den e Ordenansa riba Supervision Financiero Arubano. Mientrastanto, actividadnan di inversion a sigui cu dificultad pa accelera, debi principalmente na retraso den varios proyecto grandi. En general, na 2015 actividad economico tabata debil cu practicamente ningun crecemento.
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CBA - Economic Forecast Monitor October 2016
1.
Exec
I.
II.
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hile the forecasts
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2. Most important sources (international forecasts) (in alphabetical order):
• ABN AMRO Bank
• AllianceBernstein
• BBVA Research
• BMO Capital Markets
• BNP Paribas
• Commerzbank
• Crédit Agricole
• Danske Bank
• DBS Group
• EIA (U.S. Energy Information Association)
• IMF
• ING Bank
• Lloyds TSB
• Merrill Lynch
• Northern Trust
• OECD
• RBC Bank
• Scotiabank
• TD Bank
• The Conference Board
• United Nations
• Wells Fargo
• World Bank
The forecasts for Aruba are produced by the CBA.
Cut‐off date: October 28, 2016
3. Executive
The Arub
investme
effects he
for the p
operation
The curre
more pe
downwar
positive f
influence
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crisis in V
significan
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expected
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next year
expected
e summary
an economy
nt activities w
ereof will be
period of 20
nal. Prelimina
ent forecasti
ssimistic as
rds, lingering
for the Unite
d by the Bre
ded the 2016
development
Venezuela w
nt GDP‐growt
d inflation le
d to remain a
gain, especia
are forecast
r, there is co
d to increase
Selected GDP a
Indicator
Real GDP (grow
Aruba
Caribbean
Latin Amer
World
United Sta
Euro area
Commodity pr
Oil price (W
Gold price
2015: actual da
is projected
with respect
substantially
18 onwards,
ary estimates
ing trend sh
the GDP‐fo
g beneath th
ed States and
exit‐vote last
6 growth lev
t in these co
will remains i
th levels are C
evels in adva
at low levels
ally in Argenti
ted to increas
onsensus tha
somewhat in
and commodity
wth rate)
rica
tes
rices (average)
WTI, US$/barrel
(US$/oz)
ata (except GDP
to expand (
t to the resta
y larger in su
during whic
s of the CBA i
ows that int
orecasts for
he 2.0 percen
d Canada. Th
t June and t
vels of Latin
ountries is, h
n effect. The
China and Ind
anced econo
in 2016. In t
ina, Brazil, an
se somewhat
at the oil pr
n the coming
y forecasts EFM
)
P Aruba); 2016‐2
1
in real terms
art and upgra
bsequent ye
ch time the
indicate a rea
ternational f
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nt growth le
e view on Eu
the plunge o
America, wit
however, an
e only large
dia.
omies were
he Latin Ame
nd Venezuela
t towards th
ices will rise
period.
M (2015‐2017)
2015
−0.5
2.7
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3.1
2.6
2.0
49
1,160
017: forecasts
s) by 0.4 perc
ading of the o
ars as additio
oil refinery
al GDP growt
financial insti
e industrializ
evel. The out
urope, in par
of the British
th the notab
ticipated in
countries w
also revised
erican econo
a.
e end of 2016
e further. In
2016
0.4
2.3
−0.9
3.0
1.7
1.6
45
1,262
CBA,
cent in 2016,
oil refinery g
onal investm
is expected
th of 3.2 perc
itutions have
zed countrie
tlook for 201
rticular Great
h pound. The
ble exception
2017, althou
with expecte
d downward
omies, inflati
6, i.e., to US$
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2
1
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provided tha
get underway
ments are assu
d to become
cent for 2017.
e become sl
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e forecasters
n of Peru. A
ugh the econ
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s and, there
on is expect
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old is
4. I Annual forecasts for Aruba
2015 2016
Last updated: October 2016
GDP ¹
Nominal 1.6 ‐1.3
Real ‐0.5 0.4
Consumption (private + public) ¹
Nominal ‐1.0 0.0
Real ‐1.7 0.2
Private consumption ¹
Nominal ‐3.9 1.2
Real ‐4.4 2.0
Public consumption ¹
Nominal 5.8 ‐2.5
Real 5.3 ‐4.0
Investment (private + public) ¹
Nominal ‐4.8 24.6
Real ‐5.1 24.1
Private investment ¹
Nominal ‐3.7 26.4
Real ‐4.0 25.8
Public investment ¹
Nominal ‐26.6 ‐19.0
Real ‐26.8 ‐19.3
Exports of goods and services ¹
Nominal 1.1 ‐2.5
Real ‐0.1 ‐2.0
Imports of goods and services ¹
Nominal ‐3.5 6.4
Real ‐2.8 5.5
Current account balance ² 4.1 ‐1.9
Current account coverage ratio ³ 4.4 5.8
Source: CBA.
¹ Year/year %‐change.
² Balance on the current account (in % of nominal GDP).
³ Net foreign assets in months of current account payments (including the oil sector).
2 CBA, Research Department
5. II. Quarterly and annual forecasts for Aruba
2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP ³ 0.4 0.1 ‐1.5 ‐0.9 ‐1.8 ‐1.5 ‐0.5 0.4
Population ¹ 108.8 109.1 109.4 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.1 111.7
Inflation ² 1.0 1.0 0.6 ‐0.7 ‐1.0 ‐1.4 0.5 ‐0.8
Stay‐over visitors ³ 20.2 12.2 12.6 12.7 5.4 ‐3.0 14.3 7.3
Tourism nights ³ 12.2 10.8 6.8 4.1 2.5 ‐2.2 1.9 3.1 8.3 1.8
Tourism receipts ³ 7.2 3.1 0.4 ‐0.6 ‐1.4 ‐0.5 2.8 ‐3.4
Net foreign assets ⁴ 1,388 1,496 1,580 1,611 1,756 2,020 1,611 1,836
Source: CBA.
¹ End of period, x 1000.
² Year/year %‐change, average for the period, seasonally adjusted.
³ Year/year %‐change.
⁴ Including revaluation differences, end of period, in Afl. million.
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6. III. International forecasts
III.A. United States
2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP ¹ 0.8 1.4 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.6 1.7 2.2
Inflation ² 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.1 1.3 2.2
Core inflation ² 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.2
Unemployment rate ³ 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 5.3 4.8 4.7
Real personal consumption ¹ 1.6 4.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 3.2 2.7 2.5
Real disposable personal income ¹ 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 3.5 2.6 2.3
Exchange rate ⁴ 1.10 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.10
¹ Quarter/quarter % change, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
² Year/year %‐change, average for the period, seasonally adjusted.
³ In % of labor force, average for the period, seasonally adjusted.
⁴ US$/EUR, average for the period.
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7. III.B. Selected countries and regions
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
World 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3
Canada 1.1 1.4 2.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 6.9 7.0 6.8
Europe
Euro Area 2.0 1.6 1.4 0.3 1.1 1.4 10.9 10.2 9.8
Germany 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.6 4.4 4.4
United Kingdom 2.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 2.2 5.3 5.1 5.4
The Netherlands 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.3 1.2 6.9 6.3 6.1
Russia ‐3.7 ‐0.9 1.1 15.5 7.5 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.0
Asia
Japan 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.7 3.4 3.2 3.1
China 6.9 6.5 6.1 1.4 2.0 1.9 4.1 4.1 4.1
India 7.6 7.5 7.6 4.9 5.3 5.2
Latin America ‐0.4 ‐0.9 1.8 7.8 8.4 5.7
Argentina 1.2 ‐0.8 2.8 20.7 35.1 20.9
Brazil ‐3.8 ‐3.3 0.7 9.0 8.2 5.8 8.5 10.4 10.8
Colombia 3.1 2.4 3.0 4.7 6.5 4.5
Chile 2.1 2.0 2.4 4.3 3.8 3.1
Mexico 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3
Peru 3.3 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.4 2.8
Venezuela ‐5.7 ‐8.9 ‐2.7 121.7 341.6 616.5 7.4 18.1 21.4
Caribbean 2.7 2.3 3.6 3.5 2.7 4.1
¹ Year/year %‐change.
² Year/year %‐change, average for the period.
Unemployment rate³Inflation ²Real GDP ¹
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8. IV. Commodity prices
2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Oil price ¹ 33 46 45 51 51 50 55 57 49 45 53
Median 50 51 51 55 56 44 53
Gas price ² 2.00 2.14 2.88 2.82 3.04 3.12 3.07 3.22 2.63 2.38 3.09
Median 2.90 3.10 3.18 3.20 3.23 2.43 3.19
Gold price ³ 1,181 1,259 1,335 1,311 1,313 1,295 1,321 1,368 1,160 1,262 1,310
¹ WTI, US$/barrel, average for the period.
² Henry Hub Spot, US$/mln. Btu, average for the period. The (approximate) energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil is 5.8 mln. Btu.
³ US$/oz, average for the period.
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