Day 2 pm session: Tewodaj Mogues and Lucy Billings, IFPRI: “Drivers of Public Investment in Nutrition—Mozambique” Workshop on Approaches and Methods for Policy Process Research, co-sponsored by the CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) at IFPRI-Washington DC, November 18-20, 2013.

1. Political economy determinants
of public investments for
nutrition in Mozambique
Workshop on Approaches and Methods
for Policy Process Research
November 18 - 20, 2013
Lucy Billings*, Tewodaj Mogues* and Domingos M. do Rosário+
*International Food Policy Research Institute
+ Universidade Eduardo Mondlane

2. Study motivation and objectives
Political economy
factors
Public
Expenditures
Development
outcomes
• Empirically test theory on political economy drivers for
public investment decisions
• Apply theory to a complex multi-sector topic – Nutrition
• Examine the topic in a context with extensive development
and nutrition challenges – Mozambique
• From the perspective of this workshop’s themes:
• Analysing policy processes
• Using research evidence to influence/engage with policy processes
• Evaluating the contribution fo research to policy process formulation
Mode 1.2

3. Framework
Socio-economic inequality
Political liberties
Rule of law
Political
Corruption
de la Croix &
Delavallade
2009; Keefer &
Knack 2007
economic
governance
environment
Donors ● Bureaucrats ● Beneficiaries
NGOs ● Politicians ● Researchers
Actors...
and
Budget-maximizing
Vote-seeking
Knowledge
Collective action
… and
their attributes
& incentives
Public
investment
decisions
de facto
Olson 1985;
Tridimas 2001;
Binswanger &
Deininger 1997
Visibility
de jure
Budget
process
Cohen et al. 1972;
Davis 1971; Cowart
et al. 1975; Ostrom 1977;
Reinikka & Svensson, 2004
Characteristics
of investments
Lag
Keefer &
Khemani 2005

4. For this study
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment
… and
their attributes
& incentives
Public
investment
decisions
Budget
process
Characteristics
of investments

5. Qualitative analytical methods
• Process tracing (Beach and Pederson, 2013) – Within-case
inferences on the presence or absence of causal mechanisms
Theory-testing: Identify if the theorized causal mechanisms are
present and if they function as anticipated
Theory-building: Investigate the empirical material to identify causal
mechanisms between defined explanatory and outcome variables
• Resource flow map – A component of PETSs (Reinikka and
Svensson 2006, Koziol and Tolmie 2010), which seek to identify public
expenditure inefficiencies. We will not conduct a full PETS in this study, but
will develop a RFM to track budgeting and spending processes
• Identification of emerging themes – Apply the Grounded
Theory method (Glaser and Strauss, 2012) to analyse data across
sites within Mozambique, and identify themes that further develop
theoretical framework

6. Process-tracing: theory-testing
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment
Budget
process
… and
their attributes
& incentives
Public
investment
decisions
Characteristics
of investments

7. Process-tracing: theory-testing
Characteristics of investments

8. Process-tracing: theory-testing
Causal
mechanism
Visibility and
lag of
investments
Attributabiliy
to decision
maker
Investment is
recognisable;
Time between
resource
allocation and
outcomes
Identification
of decision
makers
responsible
for allocation
Causal
mechanism
Outcome
Political
credit
Public
resource
allocation to
nutrition
Greater
support for
politician
Level of &
change in
public
expenditures
on nutrition
EMPIRICAL
Explanatory
THEORETICAL
Characteristics of investments

9. Process-tracing: theory-building
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment
Budget
process
… and
their attributes
& incentives
Public
investment
decisions
Characteristics
of investments

10. Process-tracing: theory-building
Coordination
across
sectors &
agencies
One agency’s
knowledge of
and influence
on another
Causal
mechanism
Causal
mechanism
Outcome
?
Public
resource
allocation to
nutrition
?
Inferred
existence
Observable
manifestations
Observable
manifestations
Facts of the case
Level of &
change in
public
expenditures
on nutrition
EMPIRICAL
Explanatory
THEORETICAL
Actors and their incentives

11. Resource flow map
Actors...
Political and
economic
governance
environment
Budget
process
… and
their attributes
& incentives
Public
investment
decisions
Characteristics
of investments

12. Resource flow map
Budget process
Funding
sources
• What are the
intermediary
steps?
• Which actors
are involved?
• Who are the
decision
makers?
• What are the
different
types of
allocations?
Beneficiaries
• What is the
budget
process
direction?

13. Study area
Country – Mozambique
National level perspective
3 provinces
Tete
Nampula
Sofala
6 districts
2 districts selected from
each province: one high
and one low-investment
district
Selected
districts so far
Maputo
(capital)

14. National
Provincial
District
Total
Empirical tools
Government
7
9
15
31
NGOs
6
9
Donors
4
4
Other
3
3
TOTAL
20
Key informant interviews
Data processing approach
• Full transcription of all interviews
• Coding using NVivo
• Translation of Portuguese sections
of coded material
Document review
• Government fiscal documents
• Donor initiative commitments
• NGO project and program planning documents
18
15
15
53

15. Preliminary findings:
Actors and their incentives
• Motivations of government officials impact level of
engagement in information sharing and opportunity
seeking
• Attempts at even geographic coverage of resource
allocations: Strong donor coordination body for
nutrition
• Still many gaps in inter-agency coordination: some
NGOs implement nutrition projects without strong
awareness of government nutrition initiatives and
programs

16. Preliminary findings:
Characteristics of Investments
• High visibility and quick implementation: Vitamin
A distribution during National Health Week, vs.
nutrition education for behavioural change
• Ability to show measurable impacts
• Alignment with international nutrition priorities
and employment of evidence-based interventions

17. Preliminary findings:
Budget Process
• There is no nutrition budget line item so any allocations
for nutrition are made within sector budgets
• Nearly all funding for nutrition comes from donor
contributions
• Donor priorities drive budget allocations (mostly in a
top-down process)
• Donor allocation pathways include:
Through government – within a single sector (usually health)
Through NGOs – easier to employ a cross-sector approach

18. Thank you
Questions?
Feedback?
Analytical strategy
Experience with process tracing analysis