Human Development Report 2013 - The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World
Leading countries of the developing world are together reshaping global power dynamics a new era of human development progress, says “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World,” the 2013 Human Development Report, launched by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) here today. “The rise of the South is unprecedented in its speed and scale. Never in history have the living conditions and prospects of so many people changed so dramatically and so fast,” says the Report. “The South as a whole is driving global economic growth and societal change for the first time in centuries.” Nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are on the frontier of that change: “Connecting the North and the rising South is the transforming East,” the Report says, referring to the region. Dozens of developing countries worldwide have achieved impressive growth and dramatically improved peoples’ lives with pragmatic policies that typically combine strong government leadership, open markets and imaginative social programs, the Report says. “The 2013 Report makes a significant contribution to development thinking by describing specific drivers of development transformation and by suggesting future policy priorities that could help sustain such momentum,” writes UNDP administrator Helen Clark in the Report’s foreword. Some of the largest countries have made rapid advances, notably Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. But there has also been substantial progress in smaller economies, such as Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, Mauritius, Rwanda, Thailand and Tunisia. The experience of many states in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in managing a rapid transition from centrally planned to market economies holds useful lessons for developing countries elsewhere, says the Report. The first phase of the transformation began with a sharp drop in living standards and human development. While each country managed a subsequent recovery, the overall experience underscores the importance of social inclusion and a responsible role for the state.
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Human Development Report 2013 - The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World
- 1. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT OFFICE 14 March 2013
- 2. RISE OF THE SOUTH: • TECTONIC SHIFTS • EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPABILITIES AND CHOICES
- 3. GLOBAL REBALANCING 60 50 % Share of world output (PPP) 40 30 20 10 0 1820 1845 1870 1895 1920 1945 1970 1995 2050 Brazil, India, China Germany, France, Italy, UK, US, Canada A CHANGING WORLD
- 4. REALIGNMENT OF WORLD TRADE 60 % share of world merchandise trade 50 40 30 South-South North-North 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 A CHANGING WORLD
- 5. RAPID HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GLOBE 1 Korea, Rep. Chile Brazil Mexico Malaysia 0.8 Mauritius Thailand Turkey Tunisia China Indonesia Viet Nam 0.6 HDI 2012 Ghana India Lao PDR Bangladesh Uganda 0.4 Rwanda 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 A CHANGING HDI 1990 WORLD
- 6. MUCH HUMAN PROGRESS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW HDI COUNTRIES Avg. Annual Growth rate 2000-12 HDI Spread– highest vs. lowest 1.80 1 Norway 1.60 0.9 1.40 Bahrain 0.8 1.20 Croatia Tonga 1.00 0.7 Tunisia 0.80 0.6 Congo 0.60 0.5 Swaziland 0.40 0.4 0.20 Niger 0.00 0.3 Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI
- 7. MASSIVE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 1990 (1.8 billion) 2020 (3.2 billion) 2030 (4.9 billion) Europe and North America Asia-Pacific Central and South America Rest of the World A CHANGING WORLD
- 8. INTERNET CONNECTIVITY 1800 1600 1400 Internet users (millions) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 South North
- 9. Why have some countries done better than others? What can we learn from them? What are the common drivers?
- 10. PROACTIVE DEVELOPMENTAL STATES 1 Commitment to long-term human development 2 Actively promoting job creation 3 4 Enhancing public Nurturing industrial investment in health capacities and education DRIVERS
- 11. TAPPING GLOBAL MARKETS 1 Investment in people to make the best 2 of trade opportunities Investing in infrastructure to facilitate market access 3 Expanding into non- traditional markets DRIVERS
- 12. SOCIAL POLICY INNOVATIONS 1 2 TURKEY Health care for all BRAZIL and targeting the Expanding education poor access by equalizing funds across regions and municipalities 3 4 MEXICO INDIA Poverty reduction Extending development through innovative cash benefits to the broader transfer programmes society key to accelerating progress DRIVERS
- 13. How can we sustain human development for the generations to come?
- 14. PROMOTING EQUITY, VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY 1 2 Countries with less Women’s education inequality do better is essential to reduce and improve more in gender inequality human development 3 4 Educated, interconnect Participation and ed youth demand greater inclusion essential to accountability stability and social cohesion SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
- 15. CONFRONTING ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
- 16. COST OF INACTION: POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON POVERTY
- 17. IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY? 1 Education is key to reduce fertility rates 2 Skills formation and productivity gains can help cope with a rapidly aging population 3 To reap a demographic dividend and benefit from youth bulge, job creation should have priority SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
- 18. THE RISE OF THE SOUTH • Governance for a changed world • Opportunities for new development partnerships
- 19. REDESIGN FOR A NEW ERA 1 COHERENT PLURALISM Rise in regional institutions 2 and finance mechanisms MORE SPACE FOR NON STATE ACTORS Citizen networks and social media can promote new 3 norms to reinforce GLOBAL GOVERNANCE accountability of both state For fair representation and and private actors shared responsibility, 20th century institutions must adapt to 21st century realities IMPLICATIONS
- 20. NEW INSTITUTIONS, NEW MECHANISMS • Infrastructure development banks • New institutions can facilitate regional integration and South- South relationships $6.84 trillion • A new South Commission $3.36 trillion IMPLICATIONS
- 21. PRIORITIES FOR A NEW ERA • Rising economic strength must be matched by a full commitment to human development • LDCs can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies • Greater representation for the South and CSOs can accelerate progress on major global challenges • In a more connected world, the South continues to need the North and the North now needs the South as well
Editor's Notes
- Global rebalancing: historical reallocation of world output shares towards developing countries
- New international trade patterns with south-south trade growing substantially: global shares of North-South trade stable and of North-North trade declining
- Strong HD across the world: Over 40 developing countries with better performance in HDI by 2012 given what would have been expected based on their HDI 1990 values
- Massive expansion of the global middle class: To triple by 2030 with growth concentrated in Asia.
- Interconnectedness: Accelerating Internet user proliferation in the South
- What can we learn from this development success? Why have some countries done better than others?
- Educated, interconnected youth are demanding greater accountability from national institutions
- Confront environmental challenges: Should an environmental disaster scenario materialize, the gains in poverty reduction can be reversed
- Ageing challenge has to be met partly with rising productivity through skill formationDemography is not destiny: Education and job creation are key for some countries to tackle unbalances due to ageing and for others to benefit from the demographic bonus
- What does the rise of the south mean for human development policy and strategy?
- The world is more connected than ever – south needs the north, north needs the south
- New governance arrangements that reflect the new world order are called for based on underpinnings of coherent pluralism and responsible sovereigntyForeign reserves and sovereign wealth funds could be tapped to finance infrastructure for development: A relatively modest percentage channeled to developing countries could meet a substantial share of the existing gap