Stockholm Environment Institute (Thailand), Sustainable Mekong Research Network (Regional), and Lower Mekong Public Policy Initiative (Vietnam) gave this presentation detailing what Robust Decision Support is.

1. Financially
supported
by
What
is
Robust
Decision
Support?
Greater
Mekong
Forum
on
Water,
Food
and
Energy
Phnom
Penh,
Cambodia
Oct
21-­‐23,
2015

2. Scenarios
Coherent
stories
of
the
future
told
to
inform
current
decision-­‐making
with
qualita7ve
descrip7on
to
capture:
– Cultural
influences,
values,
behaviors
– Shocks,
disconJnuiJes
– Texture,
richness,
imaginaJon,
insight
OMen
supported
by
quan7ta7ve
analysis,
to
provide:
– Definiteness,
explicitness,
detail
– Consistency
– Technical
rigor,
scienJfic
accuracy
Scenarios
are
not
predicJons.
They
describe
futures
that
could
be,
rather
than
futures
that
will
be,
because…

3. The
future
can
be
surprising!
Forecast Reality
The
home
computer
in
2004

4. But
not
completely
unexpected
Forecast Reality
The
home
computer
in
2004
Extremely
compact

5. When
to
use
scenarios
Scenarios
are
useful
when
there
are
drivers
that
are
highly
uncertain
and
likely
to
have
a
large
impact
Low
Uncertainty
High
Uncertainty
High
Impact Trends
CriJcal
uncertainJes
Low
Impact VariaJons
Scenarios
Trend
analysis

6. Climate:
A
High-­‐impact
Driver
By
late
in
this
century:
global
mean
temperature
is
projected
to
rise
by
0.3
to
4.8
°C
and
global
mean
sea
level
is
projected
to
rise
0.26
to
0.82
m
• Many
studies
suggest
that
we
will
almost
certainly
pass
2.0°C
(the
accepted
“dangerous”
threshold)
by
mid-­‐century
• Without
rapid
and
dramaJc
changes
in
global
energy
policy,
an
increase
of
4°C
is
likely
by
the
late
21st
century
IPCC.
FiMh
Report.
2013.
Summary
for
Policy
Makers.
Available
at:
CMIP5
Ensemble.
Source:
IPCC
–
2013.
Annex
1
–
Atlas
of
Global
and
Regional
Climate
Change
ProjecJons.
htpt://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-­‐report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_AnnexI_FINAL.pdf

7. But
Impacts
are
Uncertain
• By
the
Jme
a
child
born
today
is
40
years
old,
storms
that
occurred
once
in
20
years
could
occur
once
in
10
years
• Or
5
years…
• Or
18
years…
Return
period
in
1981-­‐2000
=
20
years
Source:
SREX

8. But
Impacts
are
Uncertain
• By
the
Jme
a
child
born
today
is
40
years
old,
storms
that
occurred
once
in
20
years
could
occur
once
in
10
years
• Or
5
years…
• Or
18
years…
Return
period
in
1981-­‐2000
=
20
years
Source:
SREX

9. But
Impacts
are
Uncertain
• By
the
Jme
a
child
born
today
is
40
years
old,
storms
that
occurred
once
in
20
years
could
occur
once
in
10
years
• Or
5
years…
• Or
18
years…
Return
period
in
1981-­‐2000
=
20
years
Source:
SREX

10. Robust
Decision
Support
1. Develop
a
set
of
scenarios
2. IdenJfy
indicators
for
desired
outcomes
3. Propose
different
policy
packages
4. Ask:
What
happens
to
the
indicators
under
different
combinaJons
of
scenarios
and
policy
packages?
– QualitaJve
models
– QuanJtaJve
models

11. QualitaJve
or
QuanJtaJve
Modeling
Policy
set
1 Policy
set
2 Policy
set
3
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Scenario
4

12. QualitaJve
or
QuanJtaJve
Modeling
Policy
set
1 Policy
set
2 Policy
set
3
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Scenario
4
Can
we
combine
benefits?

13. QuanJtaJve
Modeling
PS
1 PS
2 PS
3 PS
4 PS
5 PS
6
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Scenario
4
Scenario
5
Scenario
6
Scenario
7
Scenario
8
Scenario
9
Scenario
10
Scenario
11

14. QuanJtaJve
Modeling
PS
1 PS
2 PS
3 PS
4 PS
5 PS
6
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Scenario
4
Scenario
5
Scenario
6
Scenario
7
Scenario
8
Scenario
9
Scenario
10
Scenario
11
Can
we
combine
benefits?

15. Prac7cal
steps
for
RDS
with
a
quan7ta7ve
model
STEPS INPUT
1.
Iden7fying
key
organiza7on:
Actor
Mapping
Series
of
stakeholder
engagement
meeJngs
2.
Problem
formula7on
:
XLRM
Robust
Strategy
4.
Large
ensemble
of
model
runs
5.
Scenario
explora7on
and
visualiza7on
6.
Trade-­‐off
Analysis
3.
Model
construc7on
QuesJonnaire,
survey,
interview,
workshop,
literature
review
Data
(climate
and
non-­‐
climate),
computer,
experts,
meeJngs,
experiences
Experts,
scripJng,
training
SoMware,
data
visualizaJon
and
workshops
SoMware,
data
visualizaJon
and
workshops

16. Thank
You!
eric.kemp-­‐benedict@sei-­‐internaJonal.org