How to Predict the Future
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How to Predict the Future
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How to Predict the Future
- 1. How to Predict the Future William Hertling Defrag 2014
- 4. 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 kb/s Video 2005 Avg Speed: 1.2mbps 320 x 200 x 16 x 20% = 1.6mbps 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
- 5. 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 kb/s Napster 1999 Avg Speed: 88kbps 128 encoding = 3MB Download time: 4 ½ minutes Video 2005 Avg Speed: 1.2mbps 320 x 200 x 16 x 20% = 1.6mbps 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
- 6. • Predicted: 62 Mbps • Actual 59.3 Mbps • Difference: 4.8%
- 7. Prediction Year Why Last magnetic platter hard drive manufactured
- 8. Prediction Year Why Last magnetic platter hard drive manufactured 2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.
- 9. Prediction Year Why Last magnetic platter hard drive manufactured 2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020. Implantable computers
- 10. Prediction Year Why Last magnetic platter hard drive manufactured 2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020. Implantable computers 2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year. Reaches easily implantable size by 2030.
- 11. Prediction Year Why Last magnetic platter hard drive manufactured 2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020. Implantable computers 2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year. Reaches easily implantable size by 2030. Human-level general purpose AI
- 12. Prediction Year Why Last magnetic platter hard drive manufactured 2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020. Implantable computers 2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year. Reaches easily implantable size by 2030. Human-level general purpose AI 2025-2050 Processing power growing 47%/year, 50x/decade. Depends on estimates of complexity of human intelligence. Even if its 1000x more complicated, that’s only 20 years further away.
- 13. Objection #1 “Exponential growth is not enough.” “There are hard problems to solve, and we don’t know how.”
- 15. Objection #2 “We haven’t done it, therefore we can’t do it.” “We’ve had forty years of disappointments.”
- 18. Objection #3 “We’re going to run into fundamental limits.” “The trend can’t continue.”
- 19. Intel 80386 You are here
- 20. My Use Cases 1. Seed for creativity and brainstorming 2. Validate other people’s assumptions
- 21. 1986 1997
- 22. Step 1: Calculate Annual Increase Compounded Annual Growth Rate
- 24. Sanity Check Prediction off by ~ 2x
- 25. Step 3: Predict
- 26. Caveats
- 28. Want to Learn More? To receive the following: ▪ A copy of this presentation ▪ Sample spreadsheets ▪ Links to my books ▪ Sample chapters Just pick up your phone, and send an email: To: hertling@SendYourSlides.com Subject: defrag William Hertling, @hertling
- 29. Want to Learn More? To receive the following: ▪ A copy of this presentation ▪ Sample spreadsheets ▪ Links to my books ▪ Sample chapters Just pick up your phone, and send an email: To: hertling@SendYourSlides.com Subject: defrag William Hertling, @hertling hertling@SendYourSlides.com defrag
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- Source: http://wiki.ardupilot-mega.googlecode.com/git/images/ArduPilotMegaImages/APM-IMU.png
- Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/86/First_flight2.jpg
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- Amiga 1000 photo: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Amiga_1000_PAL.jpg HP computer photo: http://nostalgy.net.ru/museum/hp-nets/1.jpg