One vision of computing in the next 50 years. A presentation I made for celebrations of Finland's first computer 50 years ago. Main messages of the presentation: - New technology becomes "common". The first cameras for example were thought evil since they capture your soul. - IBM has been playing a key role in technology advancements in the past 50 years and will continue to do so for the next 50 years as well... - Could the computer of 2050 resemble a human brain? - We may be able to simulate brains in the near future because of computing power increase + our increased understanding of brains - Web and brain compared => lots of similarities - Web in growing and developing much faster than our brains. - We humans use the web. We are the web. We are also teaching the web. (Wired: We are the web) - Could the web become the first artificial intelligence? The computer of 2050? The machine.

1. “The Machine”
October, 2008
Ville Peltola, IBM
One vision of the next 50 years in computing

2. 2
”Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic”
Arthur C. Clarke

3. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 20083
100 billion clicks per day
55 trillion links/synapses
1 quintillion transistor/neurons
20 petahertz synapse firings
255 exabytes memory
Your brain
What could the computer of 2058 look like?
Maybe something like this?
Computer? Machine?

4. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 2008
Computing 1958 - 2058
1958
time
2008 2058
Vacuum
tubes
Bipolar
transistors
CMOS
transistors
Nanotechnology
Molecular?
Bio/Organic?
Quantum?
Computingpower(nocommonscale)
Molecular
processing
Slowing the speed
of light
3D chip
stacking
Tunneling
microscopeFortran
IBM 650
“ENSI”
System 360
PC
Blue Gene
Game consoles
Fundamental changes to
businesses and industries
Personal computers and
people
Internet started to connect
everything
Advanced simulation and
modelling
Gaming and virtual worlds
Stream computing
Instrumented
planet
Magic?
Machine?

5. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 20085
Five innovations that will change the way we
live in the next five years

6. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 20086
1. Doctors with super powers
3-D representation of the human body
2. You are what you eat
Your food will have a digital passport
3. Going green
Manage your own carbon footprint
4. Commuting your commute
Cars that drive themselves
5. Your cell phone, yourself
You really can’t live without your cellphone!
The Five in Five

7. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 20087
Beyond five years…
”The future is already here. It is not just evenly distributed”
William Gibson

8. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 20088
Source: Ray Kurzweil, Wikimedia Commons

9. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 20089
Source: Ray Kurzweil, Wikimedia Commons

10. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 200810
Project ”Blue Brain” Project ”Kittyhawk”
Model and simulate the brain
with supercomputers
Explore the construction and
implications of a global-scale shared
computer capable of hosting the
entire Internet as an application

11. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 200811
What
will
The
Machine
of
2058
be
like?

12. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 200812
100 billion PC chips on the Internet
2 million emails per second
1 million IM messages per second
8 terabytes per second traffic
255 exabytes magnetic storage
1 million voice queries per hour
2 billion location nodes activated
The Web
100 billion clicks per day
55 trillion links/synapses
1 quintillion transistor/neurons
20 petahertz synapse firings
255 exabytes memory
Your brain
The Web vs Brain
Source: Kevin Kelly, EG Conference, December 4, 2007 (http://www.the-eg.com)

13. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 200813
We are the Web
Each new wikipedia entry, tagged photo in Flickr…
will we become the Machine?
…we are teaching The Machine

14. “The Machine” – The Next 50 years of computing - Copyright IBM 200814
Thank you
ville.peltola@fi.ibm.com