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3.2.4 case 2 simulation

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Vishal Tidake
Vishal Tidake

A CASE STUDY ON SIMULATION

Data & Analytics
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www.sanjivanimba.org.in Unit No.3. DECISION SCIENCE Presented By: Dr. V. M. Tidake Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem) Dean, EDP & Associate Professor MBA 1 Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon Department of MBA www.sanjivanimba.org.in
www.sanjivanimba.org.in 302-DECISION SCIENCE Unit No.3 Marko Chain & Simulation 3.2.4 Case 2: Simulation Presented By: Dr. V. M. Tidake Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem) Dean EDP & Associate Professor MBA 2 Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon Department of MBA www.sanjivanimba.org.in
www.sanjivanimba.org.in MARKOV CHAIN & SIMULATION  At the End of the Session Student will be able to understand- A. Case 2: Simulation
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION The Management of ABC is considering the question of marketing a new product. The fixed cost required in the project is Rs. 4,000. 3 factors are uncertain viz. the selling price, the variable cost and the annual sales volume. The product has a life of only one year. The management has data as follows- Consider the sequence of following Random Numbers: 81 32 60 04 46 31 67 25 24 10 40 02 39 68 08 59 66 90 12 64 79 31 86 68 82 89 25 11 98 16. Using the sequence (first three numbers for the first trial etc.), simulate the average profit for the above project on the basis of 10 trials. Selling Price Probability Variable Cost Probability Sales (Units) Probability 3 0.2 1 0.3 2000 0.3 4 0.5 2 0.6 3000 0.3 5 0.3 3 0.1 5000 0.4
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 1) For Selling Price: Selling Price Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 3 02 0.20 00-19 4 0.5 0.70 20-69 5 0.3 1.0 70-99
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 2) For Variable Cost: Variable Cost Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 1 0.3 0.30 00-29 2 0.6 0.90 30-89 3 0.1 1.00 90-99
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 3) For Sales Volume: Sales Volume Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 2000 0.3 0.30 00-29 3000 0.3 0.60 30-59 5000 0.4 1.00 60-99
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 1) Simulated Values Selling Price: S/r No Trial Random Number RNI Selling Price 1 81 70-99 5 2 04 00-19 3 3 67 20-69 4 4 10 00-19 3 5 39 20-69 4 6 59 20-69 4 7 12 00-19 3 8 31 20-69 4 9 82 70-99 5 10 11 00-19 3
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 2) Simulated Values Variable Cost: S/r No Trial Random Number RNI Selling Price 1 32 30-89 2 2 46 30-89 2 3 25 00-29 1 4 40 30-89 2 5 68 30-89 2 6 66 30-89 2 7 64 30-89 2 8 86 30-89 2 9 89 30-89 2 10 98 90-99 3
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 3) Simulated Values Sales Volume: S/r No Trial Random Number RNI Selling Price 1 60 60-99 5000 2 31 30-59 3000 3 24 00-29 2000 4 02 00-29 2000 5 08 00-29 2000 6 90 60-99 5000 7 79 60-99 5000 8 68 60-99 5000 9 25 00-29 2000 10 16 00-29 2000
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Profit = [(Selling Price – Variable Cost) * Sales Volume] – (Fixed Cost) Trial No Profit Calculation Profit 1 [(5-2)*5000] – (4000) 11000 2 [(3-2)*3000] – (4000) -1000 3 [(4-1)*2000] – (4000) 2000 4 [(3-2)*2000] – (4000) -2000 5 [(4-2)*2000] – (4000) 0000 6 [(4-2)*5000] – (4000) 6000 7 [(3-2)*5000] – (4000) 1000 8 [(4-2)*5000] – (4000) 6000 9 [(5-2)*2000] – (4000) 2000 10 [(3-3)*2000] – (4000) -4000
www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Profit = 11000 -1000 + 2000 - 2000 + 0 + 6000 + 1000 + 6000 + 2000 + 4000 Total Profit = 21,000 Average Profit = 21000/10 Average Profit = Rs. 2100/Per Trial
www.sanjivanimba.org.in EXERCISE  Solve the Case 2 on Simulation as a classroom exercise.
www.sanjivanimba.org.in For More Details Contact Dr. V M Tidake tidkevishal@gmail.com tidkevishalmba@sanjivani.org.in
www.sanjivanimba.org.in Thank You

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3.2.4 case 2 simulation

  • 1. www.sanjivanimba.org.in Unit No.3. DECISION SCIENCE Presented By: Dr. V. M. Tidake Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem) Dean, EDP & Associate Professor MBA 1 Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon Department of MBA www.sanjivanimba.org.in
  • 2. www.sanjivanimba.org.in 302-DECISION SCIENCE Unit No.3 Marko Chain & Simulation 3.2.4 Case 2: Simulation Presented By: Dr. V. M. Tidake Ph. D (Financial Management), MBA(FM), MBA(HRM) BE(Chem) Dean EDP & Associate Professor MBA 2 Sanjivani College of Engineering, Kopargaon Department of MBA www.sanjivanimba.org.in
  • 3. www.sanjivanimba.org.in MARKOV CHAIN & SIMULATION  At the End of the Session Student will be able to understand- A. Case 2: Simulation
  • 4. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION The Management of ABC is considering the question of marketing a new product. The fixed cost required in the project is Rs. 4,000. 3 factors are uncertain viz. the selling price, the variable cost and the annual sales volume. The product has a life of only one year. The management has data as follows- Consider the sequence of following Random Numbers: 81 32 60 04 46 31 67 25 24 10 40 02 39 68 08 59 66 90 12 64 79 31 86 68 82 89 25 11 98 16. Using the sequence (first three numbers for the first trial etc.), simulate the average profit for the above project on the basis of 10 trials. Selling Price Probability Variable Cost Probability Sales (Units) Probability 3 0.2 1 0.3 2000 0.3 4 0.5 2 0.6 3000 0.3 5 0.3 3 0.1 5000 0.4
  • 5. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 1) For Selling Price: Selling Price Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 3 02 0.20 00-19 4 0.5 0.70 20-69 5 0.3 1.0 70-99
  • 6. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 2) For Variable Cost: Variable Cost Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 1 0.3 0.30 00-29 2 0.6 0.90 30-89 3 0.1 1.00 90-99
  • 7. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 3) For Sales Volume: Sales Volume Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval 2000 0.3 0.30 00-29 3000 0.3 0.60 30-59 5000 0.4 1.00 60-99
  • 8. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 1) Simulated Values Selling Price: S/r No Trial Random Number RNI Selling Price 1 81 70-99 5 2 04 00-19 3 3 67 20-69 4 4 10 00-19 3 5 39 20-69 4 6 59 20-69 4 7 12 00-19 3 8 31 20-69 4 9 82 70-99 5 10 11 00-19 3
  • 9. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 2) Simulated Values Variable Cost: S/r No Trial Random Number RNI Selling Price 1 32 30-89 2 2 46 30-89 2 3 25 00-29 1 4 40 30-89 2 5 68 30-89 2 6 66 30-89 2 7 64 30-89 2 8 86 30-89 2 9 89 30-89 2 10 98 90-99 3
  • 10. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION 3) Simulated Values Sales Volume: S/r No Trial Random Number RNI Selling Price 1 60 60-99 5000 2 31 30-59 3000 3 24 00-29 2000 4 02 00-29 2000 5 08 00-29 2000 6 90 60-99 5000 7 79 60-99 5000 8 68 60-99 5000 9 25 00-29 2000 10 16 00-29 2000
  • 11. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Profit = [(Selling Price – Variable Cost) * Sales Volume] – (Fixed Cost) Trial No Profit Calculation Profit 1 [(5-2)*5000] – (4000) 11000 2 [(3-2)*3000] – (4000) -1000 3 [(4-1)*2000] – (4000) 2000 4 [(3-2)*2000] – (4000) -2000 5 [(4-2)*2000] – (4000) 0000 6 [(4-2)*5000] – (4000) 6000 7 [(3-2)*5000] – (4000) 1000 8 [(4-2)*5000] – (4000) 6000 9 [(5-2)*2000] – (4000) 2000 10 [(3-3)*2000] – (4000) -4000
  • 12. www.sanjivanimba.org.in SIMULATION Profit = 11000 -1000 + 2000 - 2000 + 0 + 6000 + 1000 + 6000 + 2000 + 4000 Total Profit = 21,000 Average Profit = 21000/10 Average Profit = Rs. 2100/Per Trial
  • 13. www.sanjivanimba.org.in EXERCISE  Solve the Case 2 on Simulation as a classroom exercise.
  • 14. www.sanjivanimba.org.in For More Details Contact Dr. V M Tidake tidkevishal@gmail.com tidkevishalmba@sanjivani.org.in