basics of identification of schedule risk and method to selection people

1. Schedule Risk Analysis Model
(SRAM)-For Infrastructure Project
Presented by Under guidance
Vishal.R.Kachwah of
MIS :121420005 Prof. Dr. N.A.Hedaoo
1College of Engineering, Pune

2. AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
 The main aim of this study the application of SRAM and verify this
operates well and produces realistic results in capturing relation between
activity durations and risk factors in schedule for construction project.
 Study and understand uncertainty and risk in project scheduling .
 Calculate impact of risk in quantitative form using probablitical method with the help of
analysis software.
 Evaluate construction activity networks under risk factors by using real case study .
 This study provided schedule risk analysis guidelines for future project .
2College of Engineering, Pune

3. 3
Risk identification
•Determines which risks may affect the project.
•Documents their characteristic.
Data collection
•Develop questionnaire to identify critical risk factors.
•Identifie Survey participants, distribuait questionnaires and conduct
in-person interviews.
Data analysis
•The risk analysis process uses Monte Carlo techniques to determine
probabilities and contingency.
Case Study
•Quantify impact of risk on a project schedule with the use of MS
Project
METHODOLOGY
College of Engineering, Pune
Position of SRAM in risk management process

4. METHODOLOGY
Risk identification and classification.
Qualitative and Quantitative Risk analysis
Conduct case study of a infrastructure
project and Quantify impact of risk on
a project schedule.
4College of Engineering, Pune
Risk assessment survey

5. Questionnaire
5College of Engineering, Pune
 Delphi technique is way to reach qualitative result
 Historical data are unavailable
 Activity is rather unclear
 The questionnaire was developed by examining past studies to extract risk
factors that are more appropriate infrastructure project.
 The questionnaire was divided into two parts.
 The first part included questions regarding the respondent’s
 The second part consisted of a total risk factors

6. 6College of Engineering, Pune
 Consultants (PMC)
 Project managers
 Construction managers
 Planners
The budget values of projects that run by the interviewed persons range from 50 cr to
200 cr and the Experience range from 5 to 15 years
 The type of contact persons are for survey
 Pilot study
Survey methodology
 We have to achieve response rate > 40 %

7. 7College of Engineering, Pune
Risk Identification
Resources
Labour
Equipment
Material
Site
conditions
Environmental
Sub-surface
Site location
Project
parties
Owner
Design and
Architecture
Contractor
Project management
Consultant
Project
features
Financial
Political
The second part consisted of a total of 4
main factor 12 sub factor.
Total 60 risk factor cover in this survey
which collected form four deferent
research work.

8. 8College of Engineering, Pune
Risk factor = Severity factor * Frequency of occurrence factor ( 3 )
Description Descriptor RANK Probability
Even Chance project Almost
certain
Very high >50%
One in Every 4
project
Likely High >25%
One in every 10
project
Possible Moderate >10%
One in Every 20
project
Unlikely Low >5%
Less than 1 in 20
project
Rare Very Low <5%
RANK Schedule
Very high >3 Month
High 2to3 Month
Moderate 1to2 Month
Low 2to4 Week
Very Low <2 Week
Probability matrix. Impact matrix

9. 9College of Engineering, Pune
The Software use for future work
 Simulation and risk analysis using Palisade’s @RISK
 It gives equal weight to each 3‐point estimate. That is, no attempt is made to assess the likelihood
of each outcome.
 Interdependence between risks, as well as their ultimate impact on the project plan’s targets
 For scheduling project using Microsoft project

10. 10College of Engineering, Pune
Case Study
Name of project:
Design And Construction Bridge Over River
Pawna, flyover & ROB On Kalewadi Phata To
Dhehu Alandi Road Pune
• Client : PCMC
• Contractor: Gammon India Limited
• Consultant : C. V. Kand Counsultant Pvt .Ltd
• Contract Value: 99,41,78,125/-Rupees
• Status: On going

11. BAR CHART
11
Jul
2015
Aug
2015
Sept
2015
Oct
2015
Nov
2015
Dec
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
Apr
2016
May
2016
Literature Review
Collection of Data
Analysis of data
Results and
Interpretation
Dissertation
Writing
College of Engineering, Pune

12. REFERENCE
1. Iyer, K. and Jha, K. (2006). “Critical Factors Affecting Schedule Performance: Evidence from Indian Construction Projects", This
paper is part of the Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , Vol. 132, No. 8, August 1, 2006.
2. Long D. Nguyen,Duc H. Phan, and Llewellyn C. M. Tang. “Simulating Construction Duration for Multistory Buildings with
Controlling Activities”, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,09 January 2013
3. Mohamed Sayed Bassiony Ahmed Abd El-Karim a,Omar Aly Mosa El Nawawy , Ahmed Mohamed Abdel-Alim “Identification
and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects".HBRC Journal, science direct, Online publication date: 1-Jun-2015
4. Damien Schatteman; Willy Herroelen; Stijn Van de Vonder .“Methodology for Integrated Risk Management and Proactive
Scheduling of Construction Projects”. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, Online publication date: 01
November 2008
5. Dho H J, Khaled E. “Fast and accurate risk evaluation for scheduling large-scale construction projects”. Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:2011
6. Subramanyan, H., Sawant, P., and Bhatt, V. (2012). "Construction Project Risk Assessment: Development of Model Based on
Investigation of Opinion of Construction Project Experts from India" Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,
American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:2012
7. Ahuja, H. N., and Nandakumar, V. (1985). "Simulation model to forecast project completion time" . Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date:1985
8. Mulholland, B., and Christian, J.“Risk assessment in construction schedules” .Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, American Society of Civil Engineers ,Online publication date: 01 January 1999.
12College of Engineering, Pune

13. THANK YOU
13College of Engineering, Pune