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Job creation, job destruction and firm-level international trade involvement ,[object Object],Research Department:
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Heterogeneous firms trade theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Belgian firm-level data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Out of 309,486 firms that filed a balance sheet in 2004.
Distribution by type of firm in 2004 (percentages of the total) Source: NBB. Shares in the number of firms Shares in employment Total Manufacturing Wholesale and retail Services 79% 59% 65% 87% 50% 26% 11% 35% 27% 43% 24% 21% 11% 11% 8% 15% 16% 28% 24% 6% 6% 2% 6% 12% 4% 3% 3% 8% 4% 7% 8% 2% 4% 1% 21% 8% 7% 14% 6% 14% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Sectoral distribution of the external trade Source: NBB. 1  Exports and imports of goods only. (percentages of the total for the whole population) 3.1 2.4 2.3 1.5 ,[object Object],100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 ,[object Object],46.3 48.0 26.6 28.1 ,[object Object],49.5 50.4 28.8 29.6 Services 3.4 2.9 1.4 0.7 Recycling, utilities and construction 46.9 46.5 69.3 69.2 Manufacturing 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 Agriculture, fishing and mining 2004 1997 2004 1997   Imports 1  value Exports 1  value  
Contribution to net changes in employment (manufacturing and services, selected industries, percentage changes between 1997 and 2004) Source: NBB. Note: only those industries that account for 2 p.c. or more of total employment are represented here.
Job creation and destruction (Cumulated annual changes in the number of jobs: 1997 - 2004) Source: NBB. ,[object Object],[object Object],102,644 146,719 -44,075 (1) - (2) Net creation 1,571,440 734,398 837,042 Total 1,111,905 482,593 629,312 Services 459,535 251,805 207,730 Manufacturing (1) + (2) Total turnover (2) Destruction (1) Creation
Share of jobs created and destroyed due to entries and exits, 1997-2004 Source: NBB. Note: These graphs show the percentage of the jobs created and destroyed by each type of firms due to entries and exits, respectively.
Job creation and destruction rates across trading status (contemporaneous creation and destruction rates; Davis and Haltiwanger (1992) methodology) Source: NBB Note:  1 p.c. = 0.01 NT: Non-traders, EXP: Exporters, IMP: Importers, TWT: Two-way traders,  FOR: Foreign affiliates, MNE: Belgian Multinationals.
Regression analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regression results (OLS estimates ; coefficients in percentage point) Source: NBB. n.s.s. = not statistically significant. Notes: Specification  is  g ijt  =  α  +  β TS ijt  +  δ S ijt  +  η P ijt  +  σ PR ijt  + ID + YD +  ε it , w here g ijt  = employment growth rate of firm i in industry j at  time t;  TS ijt  = trading status; S ijt  = size; P ijt  = productivity;  PR ijt  = profitability; ID= industry (four digits);  YD = time .  Time and industry dummies not reported. Profitability (benchmark: low) Productivity (benchmark: low) Size (benchmark: small) Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) 4.7 1.1 n.s.s. n.s.s. n.s.s. 3.6 High -6.6 -6.2 n.s.s. -8.6 -6.6 3.6 Medium-high -7.8 -10.2 -3.0 -8.2 -8.4 1.3 Medium-low -24.7 -21.4 -3.8 -18.4 -12.0 5.7 High -20.2 -19.2 -2.7 -18.2 -13.1 4.7 Medium-high -16.2 -17.7 -3.8 -15.4 -13.8 1.8 Medium-low -30.9 -45.4 -6.1 -27.6 -20.3 -7.5 Large -21.4 -40.5 -5.1 -29.1 -17.2 -4.1 Medium-large -6.8 -39.0 -6.0 -22.6 -12.1 -1.8 Medium-small -13.4 -8.6 -2.0 -22.4 -11.5 2.5 Foreign Affiliate -13.9 -9.8 -2.3 -21.9 -8.6 4.5 Belgian multinational -14.8 -5.6 3.3 -18.4 -5.8 5.2 Domestic two-ways trader -14.6 -5.5 3.2 -16.3 -4.5 5.8 Domestic importer -12.4 -6.7 1.3 -13.3 -6.7 1.5 Domestic exporter Job destruction Job  creation Net  job creation Job destruction Job  creation Net  job creation Services Manufacturing
Regression results, without entries and exits (OLS estimates ; coefficients in percentage) Source: NBB. n.s.s. = not statistically significant. Notes: Specification  is  gijt =  α  +  β TSijt +  δ Sijt +  η Pijt +  σ PRijt + ID + YD +  ε it, w here gijt = employment growth rate of firm i in industry j at  time t;  TSijt = trading status; Sijt = size; Pijt = productivity;  PRijt = profitability; ID= industry (four digits);  YD = time .  Time and industry dummies not reported. Profitability (benchmark: low) Productivity (benchmark: low) Size (benchmark: small) Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) 3.1 4.5 3.5 n.s.s. 3.8 5.2 High -5.9 1.0 5.6 -6.5 n.s.s. 6.0 Medium-high -6.5 -0.9 3.7 -6.1 -1.2 4.2 Medium-low -17.5 0.4 10.6 -11.6 n.s.s. 10.5 High -14.0 -0.7 8.7 -11.9 n.s.s. 9.0 Medium-high -11.4 -0.7 6.9 -10.8 -1.1 6.9 Medium-low -27.4 -18.5 11.0 -24.3 -10.5 n.s.s. Large -19.2 -15.0 11.4 -26.3 -6.8 3.4 Medium-large -5.9 -14.8 9.4 -20.7 -2.8 5.0 Medium-small -13.8 -3.3 1.4 -23.0 -5.1 6.5 Foreign Affiliate -12.9 -3.2 1.8 -22.4 -3.9 7.5 Belgian multinational -17.0 n.s.s. 7.6 -20.3 -0.7 9.1 Domestic two-ways trader -15.8 0.5 7.6 -17.7 n.s.s. 9.4 Domestic importer -14.0 n.s.s. 6.2 -15.0 n.s.s. 6.2 Domestic exporter Job destruction Job  creation Net  job creation Job destruction Job  creation Net  job creation Services Manufacturing
Regression results for wholesale and retail and others services (OLS estimates ; coefficients in percentage) Source: NBB. n.s.s. = not statistically significant. Notes: Specification  is  gijt =  α  +  β TSijt +  δ Sijt +  η Pijt +  σ PRijt + ID + YD +  ε it, w here gijt = employment growth rate of firm i in industry j at  time t;  TSijt = trading status; Sijt = size; Pijt = productivity;  PRijt = profitability; ID= industry (four digits);  YD = time .  Time and industry dummies not reported. Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) Job destruction Job creation With Entries and Exits Without Entries and Exits Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) -9.4 -19.6 -4.1 -2.4 -1.3 4.9 Foreign Affiliate -10.4 -17.4 -3.0 -3.7 n.s.s. 3.8 Belgian multinational -12.5 -19.2 1.2 n.s.s. 7.3 8.3 Domestic two-ways trader -11.3 -17.6 1.6 n.s.s. 7.2 8.1 Domestic importer -12.4 -15.1 n.s.s. -0.8 5.3 6.7 Domestic exporter Services W&R Services W&R Services W&R -9.5 -18.4 -9.0 -8.8 -4.6 n.s.s. Foreign Affiliate -12.9 -15.5 -10.9 -8.4 -4.6 n.s.s. Belgian multinational -10.9 -16.4 -6.2 -6.8 1.6 2.8 Domestic two-ways trader -10.0 -16.0 -4.4 -6.4 2.5 3.0 Domestic importer -11.4 -13.1 -6.9 -7.1 n.s.s. 1.5 Domestic exporter Services W&R Services W&R Services W&R Net  job creation
International trade and job reallocation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Between share of excess job reallocation (average of three-digit industry level figures) Source: NBB. Notes:  Yearly figures are weighted averages of the between shares computed for each three-digit Nace sector; the weights used are the number of firms in each three-digit industry-year cell;  a  figures computed considering only surviving firms (i.e. dropping entries and exits);  b  figures computed allocating births and deaths to specific types of firms according to their trading status the year they entered and the year before they exited. 26.12% 19.67% 14.38% 6.46% Mean 26.13% 23.77% 16.68% 10.28% 2004 30.02% 25.66% 13.03% 6.14% 2003 17.46% 13.16% 9.25% 3.44% 2002 19.91% 15.69% 11.59% 5.88% 2001 27.95% 13.79% 16.67% 5.22% 2000 29.20% 20.64% 13.24% 2.93% 1999 32.17% 24.99% 20.17% 11.30% 1998 With entries and exit b Without entries and exits a With entries and exits b Without entries and exits a Detailed classification Simple classification Groups: International status  Year
Summary and conclusions (1/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary and conclusions (2/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Distribution by type of firm in 2004 (percentages of the total) Source: NBB. Shares in the number of firms Shares in employment Total Manufacturing Wholesale and retail Services 79% 59% 65% 87% 50% 26% 11% 35% 27% 43% 24% 21% 11% 11% 8% 15% 16% 28% 24% 6% 6% 2% 6% 12% 4% 3% 3% 8% 4% 7% 8% 2% 4% 1% 21% 8% 7% 14% 6% 14% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1%
  • 6.
  • 7. Contribution to net changes in employment (manufacturing and services, selected industries, percentage changes between 1997 and 2004) Source: NBB. Note: only those industries that account for 2 p.c. or more of total employment are represented here.
  • 8.
  • 9. Share of jobs created and destroyed due to entries and exits, 1997-2004 Source: NBB. Note: These graphs show the percentage of the jobs created and destroyed by each type of firms due to entries and exits, respectively.
  • 10. Job creation and destruction rates across trading status (contemporaneous creation and destruction rates; Davis and Haltiwanger (1992) methodology) Source: NBB Note: 1 p.c. = 0.01 NT: Non-traders, EXP: Exporters, IMP: Importers, TWT: Two-way traders, FOR: Foreign affiliates, MNE: Belgian Multinationals.
  • 11.
  • 12. Regression results (OLS estimates ; coefficients in percentage point) Source: NBB. n.s.s. = not statistically significant. Notes: Specification is g ijt = α + β TS ijt + δ S ijt + η P ijt + σ PR ijt + ID + YD + ε it , w here g ijt = employment growth rate of firm i in industry j at time t; TS ijt = trading status; S ijt = size; P ijt = productivity; PR ijt = profitability; ID= industry (four digits); YD = time . Time and industry dummies not reported. Profitability (benchmark: low) Productivity (benchmark: low) Size (benchmark: small) Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) 4.7 1.1 n.s.s. n.s.s. n.s.s. 3.6 High -6.6 -6.2 n.s.s. -8.6 -6.6 3.6 Medium-high -7.8 -10.2 -3.0 -8.2 -8.4 1.3 Medium-low -24.7 -21.4 -3.8 -18.4 -12.0 5.7 High -20.2 -19.2 -2.7 -18.2 -13.1 4.7 Medium-high -16.2 -17.7 -3.8 -15.4 -13.8 1.8 Medium-low -30.9 -45.4 -6.1 -27.6 -20.3 -7.5 Large -21.4 -40.5 -5.1 -29.1 -17.2 -4.1 Medium-large -6.8 -39.0 -6.0 -22.6 -12.1 -1.8 Medium-small -13.4 -8.6 -2.0 -22.4 -11.5 2.5 Foreign Affiliate -13.9 -9.8 -2.3 -21.9 -8.6 4.5 Belgian multinational -14.8 -5.6 3.3 -18.4 -5.8 5.2 Domestic two-ways trader -14.6 -5.5 3.2 -16.3 -4.5 5.8 Domestic importer -12.4 -6.7 1.3 -13.3 -6.7 1.5 Domestic exporter Job destruction Job creation Net job creation Job destruction Job creation Net job creation Services Manufacturing
  • 13. Regression results, without entries and exits (OLS estimates ; coefficients in percentage) Source: NBB. n.s.s. = not statistically significant. Notes: Specification is gijt = α + β TSijt + δ Sijt + η Pijt + σ PRijt + ID + YD + ε it, w here gijt = employment growth rate of firm i in industry j at time t; TSijt = trading status; Sijt = size; Pijt = productivity; PRijt = profitability; ID= industry (four digits); YD = time . Time and industry dummies not reported. Profitability (benchmark: low) Productivity (benchmark: low) Size (benchmark: small) Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) 3.1 4.5 3.5 n.s.s. 3.8 5.2 High -5.9 1.0 5.6 -6.5 n.s.s. 6.0 Medium-high -6.5 -0.9 3.7 -6.1 -1.2 4.2 Medium-low -17.5 0.4 10.6 -11.6 n.s.s. 10.5 High -14.0 -0.7 8.7 -11.9 n.s.s. 9.0 Medium-high -11.4 -0.7 6.9 -10.8 -1.1 6.9 Medium-low -27.4 -18.5 11.0 -24.3 -10.5 n.s.s. Large -19.2 -15.0 11.4 -26.3 -6.8 3.4 Medium-large -5.9 -14.8 9.4 -20.7 -2.8 5.0 Medium-small -13.8 -3.3 1.4 -23.0 -5.1 6.5 Foreign Affiliate -12.9 -3.2 1.8 -22.4 -3.9 7.5 Belgian multinational -17.0 n.s.s. 7.6 -20.3 -0.7 9.1 Domestic two-ways trader -15.8 0.5 7.6 -17.7 n.s.s. 9.4 Domestic importer -14.0 n.s.s. 6.2 -15.0 n.s.s. 6.2 Domestic exporter Job destruction Job creation Net job creation Job destruction Job creation Net job creation Services Manufacturing
  • 14. Regression results for wholesale and retail and others services (OLS estimates ; coefficients in percentage) Source: NBB. n.s.s. = not statistically significant. Notes: Specification is gijt = α + β TSijt + δ Sijt + η Pijt + σ PRijt + ID + YD + ε it, w here gijt = employment growth rate of firm i in industry j at time t; TSijt = trading status; Sijt = size; Pijt = productivity; PRijt = profitability; ID= industry (four digits); YD = time . Time and industry dummies not reported. Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) Job destruction Job creation With Entries and Exits Without Entries and Exits Trade status (benchmark: non-trader) -9.4 -19.6 -4.1 -2.4 -1.3 4.9 Foreign Affiliate -10.4 -17.4 -3.0 -3.7 n.s.s. 3.8 Belgian multinational -12.5 -19.2 1.2 n.s.s. 7.3 8.3 Domestic two-ways trader -11.3 -17.6 1.6 n.s.s. 7.2 8.1 Domestic importer -12.4 -15.1 n.s.s. -0.8 5.3 6.7 Domestic exporter Services W&R Services W&R Services W&R -9.5 -18.4 -9.0 -8.8 -4.6 n.s.s. Foreign Affiliate -12.9 -15.5 -10.9 -8.4 -4.6 n.s.s. Belgian multinational -10.9 -16.4 -6.2 -6.8 1.6 2.8 Domestic two-ways trader -10.0 -16.0 -4.4 -6.4 2.5 3.0 Domestic importer -11.4 -13.1 -6.9 -7.1 n.s.s. 1.5 Domestic exporter Services W&R Services W&R Services W&R Net job creation
  • 15.
  • 16. Between share of excess job reallocation (average of three-digit industry level figures) Source: NBB. Notes: Yearly figures are weighted averages of the between shares computed for each three-digit Nace sector; the weights used are the number of firms in each three-digit industry-year cell; a figures computed considering only surviving firms (i.e. dropping entries and exits); b figures computed allocating births and deaths to specific types of firms according to their trading status the year they entered and the year before they exited. 26.12% 19.67% 14.38% 6.46% Mean 26.13% 23.77% 16.68% 10.28% 2004 30.02% 25.66% 13.03% 6.14% 2003 17.46% 13.16% 9.25% 3.44% 2002 19.91% 15.69% 11.59% 5.88% 2001 27.95% 13.79% 16.67% 5.22% 2000 29.20% 20.64% 13.24% 2.93% 1999 32.17% 24.99% 20.17% 11.30% 1998 With entries and exit b Without entries and exits a With entries and exits b Without entries and exits a Detailed classification Simple classification Groups: International status Year
  • 17.
  • 18.