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The future of the connected vehicle - 29 July 2015

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As part of the future agenda programme we are running an event in Munich on July 29th hosted by Nokia. Focused on developments in and around the connected vehicle, the will explore how changes we can see on and beyond the horizon will impact the world of cars, trucks and other vehicles over the next decade. This material is the starting point for the discussion.

Published in: Automotive
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The future of the connected vehicle - 29 July 2015

  1. 1. The  Future  of  the  Connected  Vehicle  |  Munich  |  29  July  2015  
  2. 2. Context   As  the  impact  digital  increases  and  new  business  models  emerge,  the     world  of  connected  cars,  truck  and  other  vehicles  is  undergoing  significant   change  and  how  this  is  manifested  is  of  interest  to  many.  
  3. 3. Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mulIple  views  of  the  next  decade     so  all  can  be  beKer  informed  and  sImulate  innovaIon.  
  4. 4. Looking  Forwards   OrganisaIons  increasingly  want  to  idenIfy  and  understand    both  the  anIcipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  beKer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  5. 5. Future  Agenda  1.0  Top  Insights  for  2020   From  the  2010  program,  52  key  insights  on  the  next  decade     were  shared  widely  via  books,  cards  and  online  and  have  been    extensively  used  by  organisaIons  around  the  world.  
  6. 6. Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  a  wide  range  of  views  in    25  countries.  Future  Agenda  2.0  is  doubling  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interacIon     and  significantly  raising  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     50  HOSTS   20+  TOPICS   40  COUNTRIES   100  WORKSHOPS   2500  ORGANISATIONS  
  7. 7. Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  second  version  of  the  Future  Agenda  program  is  taking  place     during  2015  and  is  addressing  20  topics  via  100  events  in    50  ciIes  in  40  countries  with  around  50  core  hosts.   Ageing   CiNes   Company   ConnecNvity   Data   EducaNon   Energy   Food   Government   Health   Learning   Loyalty   Payments   Privacy   Resources   Transport   Travel   Water   Wealth   Work  
  8. 8. The  Process   20  iniIal  perspecIves  on  the  future  kicked  off  the  Future  Agenda     discussions  taking  place  across  5  conInents  from  Feb  to  July  2015.     These  are  iniIal  views  to  be  shared,  challenged  and  enhanced.     IniIal   PerspecIves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  9. 9. The  Future  of  the  Connected  Vehicle     From  the  discussions  so  far,  there  are  many  issues  that  relate  to  the     future  of  the  connected  car  both  from  within  and  outside  the  automoIve   sector.  These  will  be  built  upon  in  Munich  on  29th  July.  
  10. 10. Intelligent  Highways   Mesh  networks  and  ubiquitous  mobile  connecIons     deliver  automated  highways  to  improve  safety,     increase  capacity  and  reduce  congesIon.  
  11. 11. Autonomous  Vehicles   Led  by  urban  delivery  pods  and  long  distance  trucks,     the  rise  of  automaIcally  driven  vehicles  leads  to  the     reinvenIon  of  the  travel  experience  around  infotainment.  
  12. 12. Digital  Showrooms   Vehicle  selecIon  and  purchase  takes  place  on  the  high  street     and  in  shopping  malls  with  immersive  digital  experience     replacing  edge  of  town  physical  car  dealerships.    
  13. 13. Smart  Cars   Every  vehicle  has  thousands  of  sensor-­‐connected  computers     that  collecIve  provide  the  intelligent  car  able  to  monitor     itself,  its  environment  and  its  passengers.    
  14. 14. Declining  Cost  of  Ownership   Increased  compeIIon,  system  efficiency  and  more  open   pricing  leads  to  a  net  decline  in  the  ongoing  cost  of  ownership     of  a  vehicle  acer  purchase.  
  15. 15. Pervasive  Leasing   Driven  by  a  combinaIon  of  sustainability,  new  business  model     and  convenience  factors,  leasing  becomes  the  predominant     mode  of  vehicle  access  for  all:  By  the  hour,  day  or  year.  
  16. 16. Electric  Car  Services   The  growth  in  electric  vehicles  brings  with  it  the  advent  of  a     completely  new  service  experience  with  remote  socware  uploads,     super-­‐fast  diagnosis  and  plug-­‐and-­‐play  component  swap.  
  17. 17. Automated  Trucks   Autonomous  and  driverless  trucks  are  now  starIng  to  have  impact.  The  vision   of  long-­‐distance  platoons  of  trucks  all  running  on  intelligent  highways  without   drivers  has  been  a  topic  for  some  years...  but  the  reality  is  not  far  away.  
  18. 18. Last  Mile  Efficiency   The  benefits  to  be  gained  from  bringing  the  same  level  of  efficiency  to  the     last  mile  as  there  is  to  the  first  thousand  is  aKracIng  aKenIon:  There  will     be  more  focus  on  reducing  inefficiencies  around  the  final  part  of  delivery.  
  19. 19. PredicNve  Remote  Maintenance   F1  and  satellite  technology  is  applied  at  scale  enabling  car     manufacturers  to  conInuously  monitor  vehicles,  diagnose     any  future  faults  in  advance  and  remotely  update  socware.    
  20. 20. Drive  Thru  Servicing     With  pre-­‐arrival  diagnosis  the  norm,  drivers  opt  to  take  their     vehicles  to  locaIons  able  to  do  a  full  service  in  30  minutes     while  they  have  a  coffee,  relax  and  browse  the  net.  
  21. 21. Uninformed  Customers   As  efficiency  improves  and  automaIon  grows,  drivers  are     ignorant  of  how  vehicles  work  and,  especially  in  fast  growing   economies,  unaware  of  anything  under  the  bonnet.  
  22. 22. The  Fourth  Space   As  tradiIonal  tasks  become  more  automated  and  Ime  is  freed  up,  the     ability  to  do  other  acIviIes  within  the  vehicle  environment  is  embraced  by  all   –  it  enables  the  car  to  be  as  producIve  as  home  or  work  spaces.  
  23. 23. Insuring  the  System   As  cars  no  longer  crash  and  nothing  is  stolen,  vehicle  insurance  shics     from  the  individual  and  their  car  to  whole  fleets  and,  ulImately,  the     enIre  system.  This  significantly  changes  how  risk  is  managed  and  shared.    
  24. 24. OpNmal  Experience   Demand  growth  will  be  driven  by  new  data  apps,  device  types  and  connected   objects  all  sharing  the  same  network.  Every  user  -­‐  human,  machine  or  object  -­‐   will  expect  a  personalised  and  consistent  experience  across  all  touch  points.  
  25. 25. Perfectly  Informed  Consumers   BeKer  informaIon  of  cost,  quality,  benefit  and  availability     enables  consumers  to  set  the  right  price  for  products  and     services  and  buyers  pay  sellers  what  they  want.  
  26. 26. Transparent  Pricing   Consumers,  supply  chains  and  regulators  share  informaIon     openly  and  force  manufacturers  and  retailers  to  be  more     transparent  about  costs  and  accountable  for  errors.  
  27. 27. Everything  Connected     By  2025,  >50  billion  objects  and  >1  trillion  sensors  will  be  connected  to   networks  –  many  of  which  are  mobile.  These  generate  diverse  use-­‐cases  from   mulI-­‐cast  /  broadcast  of  live  video  feeds  across  mulIple  areas  of  applicaIon.    
  28. 28. Access  Not  Ownership   Rising  sustainability  imperaIves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  all  shic  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy.    
  29. 29. Value  of  Data   There  is  undoubtedly  a  huge  economic  incenIve  to  generate  and  collect  data   from  whatever  sources  it  becomes  available.  As  more  data  from  more  things   becomes  available,  we  can  expect  to  see  a  data  “land  grab”  by  organisaIons.    
  30. 30. A  Data  Marketplace     Data  is  a  currency,  it  has  a  value  and  a  price,  and  therefore  requires  a     market  place.  An  ecosystem  for  trading  data  is  emerging  and  anything     that  is  informaIon  is  represented  in  a  new  data  marketplace.    
  31. 31. BeWer  Storage   Improvements  in  baKery  and  hydrogen  energy  storage  make  renewable  energy   more  reliable  and  so  accelerate  electric  vehicle  growth  and  support  greater   distributed  generaIon.  This  has  the  potenIal  to  enable  a  behaviour  change.  
  32. 32. 5G  Era   The  5G  era  encompasses  Gbps  mobile  broadband  but  evolves  to  an     opImsied  architecture  that  integrates  mulIple  fixed  and  wireless     networks  and  supports  flexible  spectrum  usage  with  high  spectral  efficiency.  
  33. 33. Security  and  Privacy  by  Design   The  trust  of  users  is  fragile  and  can  only  be  sustained  by  embedding     privacy  and  security  in  products  and  processes  to  provide     transparency,  choice  and  individual  parIcipaIon.    
  34. 34. CogniNve  Networks     In  using  big-­‐data  analyIcs  and  machine  learning,  networks  become  cogniIve   enough  to  operate  themselves  at  the  most  opImal  cost  -­‐  while  understanding   user’s  needs  and  automaIcally  delivering  the  best  experience  in  real-­‐Ime.  
  35. 35. Linkability  of  Open  Data   No  data  will  be  truly  anonymous:  Current  open  data  pracIce  assumes  that   technology  will  be  not  be  able  to  relink  it  to  its  source.  This  is  not  the    case  and  so,  by  2025,  we  will  see  different  levels  of  de-­‐idenIficaIon.    
  36. 36. Paying  for  Privacy     We  do  not  currently  understand  the  value  of  our  data  or  how  it  is     being  used  and  so  are  giving  it  away.  In  the  future  we  might  be  willing     to  pay  more  for  our  privacy  than  the  data  we  share.    
  37. 37. Data  Islands   Some  economies  seek  to  maintain  closed  or  parallel  networks,  independent  of   global  systems.  Different  approaches  from  the  standard  are  developed  for   major  populaIon  centres  and,  in  Ime,  could  have  global  reach.  
  38. 38. CiNes  Not  Countries   CiIes  are  more  important  than  countries  and  increasingly  set  the     standards  as  cultural  connecIons  predominate  over  naIonal     idenIIes  and  urban  markets  group  around  common  issues.  
  39. 39. Rising  Cyber  Security   Greater  interconnecIvity  and  the  Internet  of  Things  creates  new     vulnerabiliIes  for  governments  and  corporaIons  -­‐  as  the  unscrupulous  and     the  criminal  increasingly  seek  to  exploit  weakness  and  destroy  systems.  
  40. 40. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   Im.jones@futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  

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