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Transforming the Mongolian
Banking Sector
Mongolia Investment Summit in Hong Kong
October 30, 2012
Norihiko Kato
CEO, Khan Bank
1
Mongolia economy
Banking sector
Regulation and modernization of financial sector
Challenges for banking sector
Transforming Mongolia Banking Sector
2
GDP Growth (USD billions)
Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO, World Bank DataBank
Since negative growth in 2009, Mongolia has made strong economic growth.
In 2011, real GDP grew by 17.5%. One of the fastest in the world.
Mongolia Economy
1.491
1.980
1.600
2.300
3.288
4.321
5.226
6.156
6.516
7.684
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0
3.5 3.7
4.4
5.1
5.6
6.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
3
GDP per Capita (USD)
Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO, World Bank DataBank
Industry growth rates were 42.5% in wholesale and retail, 16% in
manufacturing, 14% in construction, and 8.7% in mining; Supply Chain Effect
GDP Composition by Sector (2011)
20%
13%
10%
7%7%
7%
3%
33%
Mining & quarrying
Agriculture
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and
storage
Manufacturing
Real estate
Government
Others
Mongolia Economy
4
FDI Each Month (USD millions)
Mongolia Economy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011m01
2011m02
2011m03
2011m04
2011m05
2011m06
2011m07
2011m08
2011m09
2011m10
2011m11
2011m12
2012m01
2012m02
2012m03
2012m04
2012m05
2012m06
2012m07
2012m08
5
Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO
185 191
360
839
570
1630
3808
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
FDI Each Year (USD millions)
Trade Balance (USD millions)
Source: Mongol Bank, NSO, World Bank DataBank
Exports to (2012 1Q)
Imports from (2012 1Q)
Mongolia Economy
90%
3%
8%
China
Russia
Others
30%
30%
40% China
Russia
Others
1,889
2,534
1,885
2,908
4,780
2,262
3,232
2,117
3,244
2,137
3,200
6,526
3,313
5,246
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Q 2013 3Q
Export Import Trade Balance
6
Mongolia Economy
Export Composition (USD millions)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600 Other Coal Gold Copper
Source: NSO
7
Mongolia Economy
Import Composition (USD millions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Other Machinery & Equipments Food Oil
Source: NSO
8
Mongolia Macroeconomic Overview
Inflation (CPI) MNT against USD
9
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
2008Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
2009Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
2010Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
2011Jan
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
2012Jan
Mar
Jun
Sept
Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO, World Bank DataBank
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008m01
2008m04
2008m07
2008m10
2009m01
2009m04
2009m07
2009m10
2010m01
2010m04
2010m07
2010m10
2011m01
2011m04
2011m07
2011m10
2012m01
2012m04
2012m07
Core Inflation Inflation
*Meat, milk and vegetables are excluded from consumer
basket to calculate core inflation.
*
14 commercial banks, 1 development bank, 195 small NBFIs,162 savings & credit
cooperatives, and 17 insurance companies.
2 foreign bank representative offices.
90-95% percent of financial sector assets are dominated by commercial banks.
Top 3 banks (Khan, TDB, Golomt) make up 70% of total assets.
Top 5 banks (Top 3, Xac, and Savings) make up 87% of total assets.
Banking Sector
Source: Banks’ websites
10
Top 3
Banks
70%
Other
Banks
30%
Top 5
Banks
87%
Other
Banks
13%
Top 3 Banks’ Assets (2012 2Q) Top 5 Banks’ Assets (2012 2Q)
Banking Sector Assets vs. GDP (USD millions)
11
Banking Sector
69%
56%
68%
75%
87%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Banking Sector Assets Banking Sector Assets to GDP
Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO
GDP and Loan Growth (USD millions) GDP and Deposit Growth (USD millions)
Banking Sector
In 2011, sector loans grew 79% and deposits grew 42% while GDP grew 17.5%.
2012 3Q, loans grew 23% and deposits grew by 19%.
12
Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO
25.3%
-6.6%
26.0%
79.6%
8.9%
-1.3%
6.4%
17.5%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2008 2009 2010 2011
Loans Loan Growth GDP Growth
23% 25%
55%
42%
8.9%
-1.3%
6.4%
17.5%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Deposits Deposit Growth GDP Growth
Banking Sector
CAR (2012 2Q)
Total Loan Market Share (2012 2Q)
Khan
24,14%
Golomt
22,01%
TDB
22,05%
Xac
9,32%
Savings
7,29%
Others
15,19%
Total Deposit Market Share (2012 2Q)
Total Capital (2012 2Q )
Khan
24,85%
Golomt
23,73%
TDB
24,26%
Xac
6,85%
Savings
9,05%
Others
11,26%
(MNT billions)
14.7% 14.3% 14.5%
19.1%
12.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Khan TDB Golomt Xac Savings
Source: Bank of Mongolia, Banks’ websites
275
256
227
91
69
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Khan TDB Golomt Xac Savings
13
58,379
42 101
30 244
12 146
Khan TDB Golomt XacBank
Net Income (YE2011) ROA 2011
3.08%
2.83%
1.89%
1.61%
Khan TDB XacBank Golomt
503 497
92 88
42
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Khan Savings XacBank Golomt TDB
Number of Branches (YE2011)
MNT billions
Income Composition (2012 2Q)
Banking Sector
MNT billions
Source: Banks’ websites, Bank of Mongolia
14
67
31 32
27
17 13 15
5
84
45 48
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
Khan Golomt TDB Xac
Net-Interest Income Non-Interest Income Operating Income
Banking sector Non-performing Loans (MNT billions)
Banking Sector
3.0%
7.1%
17.4%
11.5%
5.8%
4.8% 4.4%
1.5%
2.8%
8.0%
4.5%
2.3% 2.0% 1.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Q 2012 3Q
Banking Sector Gross Loan Banking Sector NPL
Banking Sector NPL Ratio Khan Bank NPL Ratio
Source: Bank of Mongolia,
15
Regulatory Development in Financial Sector
Key Prudential Ratios set by Bank of Mongolia
Liquidity Ratio > 25% Liquid Assets / Total Deposits
Capital Adequacy Ratio >12.5% (Tier 1 + Tier 2 ) / Risk Weighted Assets
Tier 1 Capital Adequacy > 7% Tier 1 / Risk Weighted Assets
Reserve Requirement >12% of total deposits (MNT and FC)
Credit Concentration
Total Related Parties Lending < 20% of total capital
Single Related Party Lending < 5% of total capital
Single Borrower Lending < 20% of total capital
Foreign Exchange Risk
Open Position on Single Currency < 15% of total capital
Total Open Position < 40% of total capital
16
Source: Bank of Mongolia,
Regulatory Development in Financial Sector
Increase bank’s statutory fund from MNT 8 billion to MNT 16 billion
effective May 2013.
Blanket Deposit Guarantee Law, to expire in November 2012, will be
extended one more year.
Deposit insurance system is planned to be introduced.
Additional capital requirement on systematically important banks whose
assets are greater than 5% of the total assets in the system.
30 Jun 2012 31 Dec 2012 30 Jun 2013
Tier 1 Capital
Adequacy 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Capital Adequacy
Ratio 12.5% 13.0% 14.0%
Banking Sector Regulatory Changes
17
Source: Bank of Mongolia,
Regulatory Development in Financial Sector
Financial Sector Regulatory Changes
Parallel Development of Capital Markets
A new securities law has been submitted to Parliament in order to
develop and regulate securities and capital markets.
Millennium IT trading system is introduced with T+3 for securities
settlement.
A new Investment Fund law is being developed by Financial
Regulatory Commission.
Regulation of Custodian Operation is under review.
18
Source: Financial Regulatory Commission, MSE
Challenges
Small size of capital of the banks
Underdeveloped interbank market, capital markets, custody service
Lack of long term MNT funding source, maturity gap mismatch
Underdeveloped derivative market and hedging instruments
Legal and regulatory framework
e.g. movable assets pledge, non-banking finance business
financial holding company
Risk management and system investment
Compliance, AML, KYC
Governance and transparency
19
Month End Balance of Interbank Transactions (USD thousands)
20
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
05.01.31
05.03.31
05.05.31
05.07.31
05.09.30
05.11.30
06.01.31
06.03.31
06.05.31
06.07.31
06.09.30
06.11.30
07.01.31
07.03.31
07.05.31
07.07.31
07.09.30
07.11.30
08.01.31
08.03.31
08.05.31
08.07.31
08.09.30
08.11.30
09.01.31
09.03.31
09.05.31
09.07.31
09.09.30
11/30/2009
01/31/2010
03/31/2010
05/31/2010
07/30/2010
09/30/2010
11/30/2010
01/31/2011
03/31/2011
05/31/2011
07/30/2011
09/30/2011
11/30/2011
01/31/2012
03/31/2012
05/31/2012
07/30/2012
Interbank transaction volume / banking sector assets
Interbank transaction in MNT
Interbank transaction in FC
Interbank transactions
had an upward trend till
economic crisis
Daily interbank transaction size is
no more than 6% of the total assets
Source: Bank of Mongolia,
Interbank transactions: repo, overnight, loans,
deposits, and central bank bills
Thank you for your attention.
21

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10.29-31.2012, PRESENTATION, Transforming Mongolia's banking sector to match international standards, Norihiko Kato

  • 1. Transforming the Mongolian Banking Sector Mongolia Investment Summit in Hong Kong October 30, 2012 Norihiko Kato CEO, Khan Bank 1
  • 2. Mongolia economy Banking sector Regulation and modernization of financial sector Challenges for banking sector Transforming Mongolia Banking Sector 2
  • 3. GDP Growth (USD billions) Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO, World Bank DataBank Since negative growth in 2009, Mongolia has made strong economic growth. In 2011, real GDP grew by 17.5%. One of the fastest in the world. Mongolia Economy 1.491 1.980 1.600 2.300 3.288 4.321 5.226 6.156 6.516 7.684 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.6 6.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 3 GDP per Capita (USD)
  • 4. Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO, World Bank DataBank Industry growth rates were 42.5% in wholesale and retail, 16% in manufacturing, 14% in construction, and 8.7% in mining; Supply Chain Effect GDP Composition by Sector (2011) 20% 13% 10% 7%7% 7% 3% 33% Mining & quarrying Agriculture Wholesale and retail trade Transportation and storage Manufacturing Real estate Government Others Mongolia Economy 4
  • 5. FDI Each Month (USD millions) Mongolia Economy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011m01 2011m02 2011m03 2011m04 2011m05 2011m06 2011m07 2011m08 2011m09 2011m10 2011m11 2011m12 2012m01 2012m02 2012m03 2012m04 2012m05 2012m06 2012m07 2012m08 5 Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO 185 191 360 839 570 1630 3808 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FDI Each Year (USD millions)
  • 6. Trade Balance (USD millions) Source: Mongol Bank, NSO, World Bank DataBank Exports to (2012 1Q) Imports from (2012 1Q) Mongolia Economy 90% 3% 8% China Russia Others 30% 30% 40% China Russia Others 1,889 2,534 1,885 2,908 4,780 2,262 3,232 2,117 3,244 2,137 3,200 6,526 3,313 5,246 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Q 2013 3Q Export Import Trade Balance 6
  • 7. Mongolia Economy Export Composition (USD millions) - 100 200 300 400 500 600 Other Coal Gold Copper Source: NSO 7
  • 8. Mongolia Economy Import Composition (USD millions) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Other Machinery & Equipments Food Oil Source: NSO 8
  • 9. Mongolia Macroeconomic Overview Inflation (CPI) MNT against USD 9 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 2008Mar Jun Sep Dec 2009Mar Jun Sep Dec 2010Mar Jun Sep Dec 2011Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec 2012Jan Mar Jun Sept Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO, World Bank DataBank 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2008m01 2008m04 2008m07 2008m10 2009m01 2009m04 2009m07 2009m10 2010m01 2010m04 2010m07 2010m10 2011m01 2011m04 2011m07 2011m10 2012m01 2012m04 2012m07 Core Inflation Inflation *Meat, milk and vegetables are excluded from consumer basket to calculate core inflation. *
  • 10. 14 commercial banks, 1 development bank, 195 small NBFIs,162 savings & credit cooperatives, and 17 insurance companies. 2 foreign bank representative offices. 90-95% percent of financial sector assets are dominated by commercial banks. Top 3 banks (Khan, TDB, Golomt) make up 70% of total assets. Top 5 banks (Top 3, Xac, and Savings) make up 87% of total assets. Banking Sector Source: Banks’ websites 10 Top 3 Banks 70% Other Banks 30% Top 5 Banks 87% Other Banks 13% Top 3 Banks’ Assets (2012 2Q) Top 5 Banks’ Assets (2012 2Q)
  • 11. Banking Sector Assets vs. GDP (USD millions) 11 Banking Sector 69% 56% 68% 75% 87% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP Banking Sector Assets Banking Sector Assets to GDP Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO
  • 12. GDP and Loan Growth (USD millions) GDP and Deposit Growth (USD millions) Banking Sector In 2011, sector loans grew 79% and deposits grew 42% while GDP grew 17.5%. 2012 3Q, loans grew 23% and deposits grew by 19%. 12 Source: Bank of Mongolia, NSO 25.3% -6.6% 26.0% 79.6% 8.9% -1.3% 6.4% 17.5% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2008 2009 2010 2011 Loans Loan Growth GDP Growth 23% 25% 55% 42% 8.9% -1.3% 6.4% 17.5% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2008 2009 2010 2011 Deposits Deposit Growth GDP Growth
  • 13. Banking Sector CAR (2012 2Q) Total Loan Market Share (2012 2Q) Khan 24,14% Golomt 22,01% TDB 22,05% Xac 9,32% Savings 7,29% Others 15,19% Total Deposit Market Share (2012 2Q) Total Capital (2012 2Q ) Khan 24,85% Golomt 23,73% TDB 24,26% Xac 6,85% Savings 9,05% Others 11,26% (MNT billions) 14.7% 14.3% 14.5% 19.1% 12.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Khan TDB Golomt Xac Savings Source: Bank of Mongolia, Banks’ websites 275 256 227 91 69 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 Khan TDB Golomt Xac Savings 13
  • 14. 58,379 42 101 30 244 12 146 Khan TDB Golomt XacBank Net Income (YE2011) ROA 2011 3.08% 2.83% 1.89% 1.61% Khan TDB XacBank Golomt 503 497 92 88 42 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Khan Savings XacBank Golomt TDB Number of Branches (YE2011) MNT billions Income Composition (2012 2Q) Banking Sector MNT billions Source: Banks’ websites, Bank of Mongolia 14 67 31 32 27 17 13 15 5 84 45 48 33 0 20 40 60 80 100 Khan Golomt TDB Xac Net-Interest Income Non-Interest Income Operating Income
  • 15. Banking sector Non-performing Loans (MNT billions) Banking Sector 3.0% 7.1% 17.4% 11.5% 5.8% 4.8% 4.4% 1.5% 2.8% 8.0% 4.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Q 2012 3Q Banking Sector Gross Loan Banking Sector NPL Banking Sector NPL Ratio Khan Bank NPL Ratio Source: Bank of Mongolia, 15
  • 16. Regulatory Development in Financial Sector Key Prudential Ratios set by Bank of Mongolia Liquidity Ratio > 25% Liquid Assets / Total Deposits Capital Adequacy Ratio >12.5% (Tier 1 + Tier 2 ) / Risk Weighted Assets Tier 1 Capital Adequacy > 7% Tier 1 / Risk Weighted Assets Reserve Requirement >12% of total deposits (MNT and FC) Credit Concentration Total Related Parties Lending < 20% of total capital Single Related Party Lending < 5% of total capital Single Borrower Lending < 20% of total capital Foreign Exchange Risk Open Position on Single Currency < 15% of total capital Total Open Position < 40% of total capital 16 Source: Bank of Mongolia,
  • 17. Regulatory Development in Financial Sector Increase bank’s statutory fund from MNT 8 billion to MNT 16 billion effective May 2013. Blanket Deposit Guarantee Law, to expire in November 2012, will be extended one more year. Deposit insurance system is planned to be introduced. Additional capital requirement on systematically important banks whose assets are greater than 5% of the total assets in the system. 30 Jun 2012 31 Dec 2012 30 Jun 2013 Tier 1 Capital Adequacy 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Capital Adequacy Ratio 12.5% 13.0% 14.0% Banking Sector Regulatory Changes 17 Source: Bank of Mongolia,
  • 18. Regulatory Development in Financial Sector Financial Sector Regulatory Changes Parallel Development of Capital Markets A new securities law has been submitted to Parliament in order to develop and regulate securities and capital markets. Millennium IT trading system is introduced with T+3 for securities settlement. A new Investment Fund law is being developed by Financial Regulatory Commission. Regulation of Custodian Operation is under review. 18 Source: Financial Regulatory Commission, MSE
  • 19. Challenges Small size of capital of the banks Underdeveloped interbank market, capital markets, custody service Lack of long term MNT funding source, maturity gap mismatch Underdeveloped derivative market and hedging instruments Legal and regulatory framework e.g. movable assets pledge, non-banking finance business financial holding company Risk management and system investment Compliance, AML, KYC Governance and transparency 19
  • 20. Month End Balance of Interbank Transactions (USD thousands) 20 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 05.01.31 05.03.31 05.05.31 05.07.31 05.09.30 05.11.30 06.01.31 06.03.31 06.05.31 06.07.31 06.09.30 06.11.30 07.01.31 07.03.31 07.05.31 07.07.31 07.09.30 07.11.30 08.01.31 08.03.31 08.05.31 08.07.31 08.09.30 08.11.30 09.01.31 09.03.31 09.05.31 09.07.31 09.09.30 11/30/2009 01/31/2010 03/31/2010 05/31/2010 07/30/2010 09/30/2010 11/30/2010 01/31/2011 03/31/2011 05/31/2011 07/30/2011 09/30/2011 11/30/2011 01/31/2012 03/31/2012 05/31/2012 07/30/2012 Interbank transaction volume / banking sector assets Interbank transaction in MNT Interbank transaction in FC Interbank transactions had an upward trend till economic crisis Daily interbank transaction size is no more than 6% of the total assets Source: Bank of Mongolia, Interbank transactions: repo, overnight, loans, deposits, and central bank bills
  • 21. Thank you for your attention. 21