We conducted an ecoregional assessment for the Eastern Steppe and here’s a preliminary conservation portfolio (in dark green). This work, which started in Sept 2009, is being conducted under an MOU with the Ministry of Environment and being driven by a working group that includes Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy, other gov’t agencies, regional and local stakeholders, academics, and NGOs.
We looked at this through the lens of future development and make recommendations about which overlap/conflicts need to be avoided and which we can re-design the portfolio and offset those impacts
We work in Tosonkhulstai Nature Reserve -1Mln acre calving ground for gazelle in the heart of grasslands. Here you see how new proposed PA was redesigned after ERA was done.
But when viewed with the potential cumulative impacts for the region, we think an approach like DbyD will be needed to guide effective landscape planning and mitigation decisions. (Map shows leases across Mongolia)
The Nature Conservancy Mongolia program
Osaka, Japan October 27, 2010 The Nature Conservancy Mongolia program Enkhtuya Oidov, director
<ul><li>Biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>Largest intact temperate grassland </li></ul><ul><li>Not fractured </li></ul><ul><li>Habitat for Mongolian gazelle roaming and many other grassland wild life </li></ul><ul><li>Wetlands sites for migratory birds </li></ul>
Economic base of Mongolia: Animal husbandry <ul><li>Nomadic culture (40% of population out of 2.7Mln) and conservation ethics </li></ul><ul><li>Change in policy affected herders traditional way of living (40mln livestock ) </li></ul><ul><li>Overgrazing issue (composition of herds) </li></ul>
Real GDP Growth Rate <ul><li>2008, GDP growth was 10.2 percent In in the first half, up from 9.9 percent in 2007. </li></ul><ul><li>The pace of GDP growth is now on par with Asia’s strongest, i.e. China, India and Vietnam </li></ul>Real GDP Growth Rate September 2008- Page 2
Strong Foreign Investment <ul><li>FDI reached $500 million in 2007, of which 67 percent went to mining while trade and food was the second largest receiver of FDI </li></ul>FDI is scaling up mining Source:FIFTA September 2008- Page 3
Growth .. Mining has had spillover effects Source: IMF estimates IMF staff report, July 2008 September 2008- Page 7 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Est. Total Nonmineral Mineral Real GDP (Percent change) Sources: Mongolian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Fiscal Policy - Expenditures have a more than tripled in three years <ul><li>Capital expenditures were planned 7 time higher in 2008 than 3 years before. </li></ul><ul><li>Social welfare was planned 6 times higher in 2008 than 3 years before. </li></ul><ul><li>Public wages have increased threefold since 2005. </li></ul><ul><li>Absorptive capacity is an issue: 2008 June budget outturns indicate a significant under-spending (by 28 %) mostly on domestic capital expenditures. </li></ul>September 2008- Page 16
Potential fuel sources could increase, and impact of fuel prices will be less <ul><li>Total crude oil domestic extraction represents 20.2% of 2007 domestic consumption and is projected to reach 50% of domestic consumption in 2010. </li></ul>Source:World Bank September 2008- Page 18 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 tons of oil products (or equivalent) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Ratio of consumption over extraction (right axis) Domestic consumption - left axis Domestic extraction - left axis