1Jason WheelockVisiting Fellow, the National Institute for Defense Studies and Councilon Foreign Relations-Hitachi Interna...
2Introduction to Asia Pivot• Fall of 2011 Obama Administration issued a series of announcements regarding an expandeddiplo...
3Deficits Projected in CBO’s May 2013 Baseline and Under an Alternative Fiscal ScenarioTotal2014- 2014-2013 2014 2015 2016...
4Deficit Reduction and Public Opinion• In January 2013 PewFoundation Poll, 72 percent ofrespondents felt reducing thebudge...
5Defense Spending and Public Opinion• The wars are winding down and fewer people see defense spending as a high priority. ...
6FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18Other 9 6 3 8 3 7 1War 0 23 17 73 91 76 116 1...
7Budget in Constant FY 2014 $2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201...
8“Retrenchment” versus “Foreign PolicyBegins at Home”• In foreign policy circles, the term word retrenchment is often asso...
9Air Sea Battle• First mentioned in 2010 QDR, but did not receive much widespread attention until an article inAmerican In...
10First and Second Island Chains and AirSea BattleSource: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment. Greg Jaffe, GeneT...
11Other Threats to US Forces in AsiaPacificSource: “Kim Jong Un Reveals His ‘US Mainland StrikePlan’,” March 29th, 2013. D...
12USMC Pacific Posture• DoD’s stated policy is to have approximately 22,000 Marines west of theInternational Dateline, the...
13USMC Posture Challenges• Command and Control because of the separation of HQ units at differentlocations. Current the II...
14Final Thoughts• DoD faces challenges if they are faced with flat or declining budgets. Realgrowth in the defense budget ...
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Public Lecture Presentatin Slide (6.11.2013): Jason Wheelock: Understanding the Asia Pivot

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Public Lecture Presentatin Slide (6.11.2013): Jason Wheelock: Understanding the Asia Pivot

  1. 1. 1Jason WheelockVisiting Fellow, the National Institute for Defense Studies and Councilon Foreign Relations-Hitachi International Affairs Fellow in JapanJune 11, 2013These views are the presenter’s and should not be interpreted as that ofthe Congressional Budget Office.Understanding the Asia Pivot
  2. 2. 2Introduction to Asia Pivot• Fall of 2011 Obama Administration issued a series of announcements regarding an expandeddiplomatic, military and economic focus on Asia.• Obama speech to the Australian Parliament and US as a Pacific nation (November 2011).• Clinton Foreign Policy Article-Cost Benefit Approach to US Engagement (November 2011).• Pivot Versus Rebalance-Politicians Pivot/Generals and Admirals Rebalance.
  3. 3. 3Deficits Projected in CBO’s May 2013 Baseline and Under an Alternative Fiscal ScenarioTotal2014- 2014-2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2023In Billions of DollarsCBOs May 2013 BaselineRevenues 2,813 3,042 3,399 3,606 3,779 3,943 4,103 4,280 4,494 4,732 4,959 17,769 40,336Outlays 3,455 3,602 3,777 4,038 4,261 4,485 4,752 5,012 5,275 5,620 5,855 20,163 46,677____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ______ ______Deficit -642 -560 -378 -432 -482 -542 -648 -733 -782 -889 -895 -2,394 -6,340Debt Held by the Public at theEnd of the Year 12,036 12,685 13,156 13,666 14,223 14,827 15,537 16,330 17,168 18,118 19,070 n.a. n.a.Alternative Fiscal ScenarioRevenues 2,813 2,988 3,305 3,519 3,696 3,862 4,022 4,198 4,409 4,643 4,864 17,369 39,505Outlays 3,455 3,671 3,881 4,156 4,393 4,632 4,934 5,209 5,485 5,836 6,082 20,733 48,279____ ______ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______Deficit -642 -683 -577 -637 -697 -770 -912 -1,010 -1,076 -1,193 -1,219 -3,364 -8,774Debt Held by the Public at theEnd of the Year 12,036 12,808 13,477 14,193 14,965 15,798 16,771 17,841 18,973 20,228 21,503 n.a. n.a.Fiscal EnvironmentSource: Congressional Budget Office, Updated Budget Projections: FiscalYears 2013 to 2023 (May 2013)
  4. 4. 4Deficit Reduction and Public Opinion• In January 2013 PewFoundation Poll, 72 percent ofrespondents felt reducing thebudget deficit was a toppriority for the President andCongress.
  5. 5. 5Defense Spending and Public Opinion• The wars are winding down and fewer people see defense spending as a high priority. China andother security problems are offset by domestic concerns.
  6. 6. 6FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18Other 9 6 3 8 3 7 1War 0 23 17 73 91 76 116 166 187 146 162 159 115 81 88 37 37 37 37Base 279 287 328 365 377 400 411 432 479 513 528 528 530 525 527 541 551 560 569Total 287 316 345 438 468 479 535 601 666 666 691 687 645 574 615 578 588 597 606Intial BCA Caps 527 540 551 563 576Seq/Adj Caps 493 475 488 499 511 524287316345438468 479535601666 666691 687645574615578 588 597 6060100200300400500600700800BudgetAuthorityin$BillionsDoD Topline and Budget Control ActOtherWarBaseIntial BCA CapsSeq/Adj CapsData source for “Base,” “War,” and “Other” funding: Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller)/ChiefFinancial Officer, Fiscal Year 2014 Budget Request and FY 2013 Update, April 2013. Amounts for “Initial BCACaps” and “Seq/Adj Caps” based on presenter’s analysis of the Budget Control Act.
  7. 7. 7Budget in Constant FY 2014 $2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Other 12 8 0 0 0 4 10 4 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0War 0 32 23 95 116 92 137 192 209 161 175 168 119 82 88 36 36 35 35Base 401 398 445 480 480 488 486 497 537 567 569 558 550 501 527 533 535 533 530Total 414 437 468 576 596 584 632 693 746 736 745 726 669 584 615 570 571 568 565Intial BCA caps 527 533 534 536 537Sequester/Adj Caps 475 481 484 486 489414437468576 596 584632693746 736 745 726669584615570 571 568 5650100200300400500600700800BudgetAuthorityObservation #1: Using DoD FY2014 deflators to adjust for inflation, DoD’s Base Budget grewin real terms by roughly 3.6% annually between 2000 and 2010. In 2000, DoD Base Budgetwas $401 billion in FY2014 dollars and grew to $569 billion in 2010, as measured in 2014dollars.Observation #2: Using 2000 as the starting point, the cumulative increases in defensespending between 2001 and 2013 were approximately $1.2 trillion. In comparison, the cost ofthe war, measured in FY 2014 dollars, was approximately $1.5 trillion over the same period.Source data: Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller)/Chief Financial Officer, FiscalYear 2014 Budget Request and FY 2013 Update, April 2013.
  8. 8. 8“Retrenchment” versus “Foreign PolicyBegins at Home”• In foreign policy circles, the term word retrenchment is often associated withdebates on reducing the size of US overseas commitments. The US has fiveallies who fall under security treaties (Japan, ROK, Thailand, Australia, andthe Philippines). Prospects of a reduced military spending cause alarm andraise fears of abandonment amongst allies and other security partners.• Given the current fiscal environment, DoD is beginning the process to thinkabout the size, rolls and operations in a peacetime environment. SecretaryHagel ordered a Strategic Choices and Management Review.• Many analysts are now advocating a “Foreign Policy Begins at Home”approach. Richard Haas states in his new book that “Core DefenseSpending” can be reduced to slightly below $500 billion without jeopardizingAmerican security.
  9. 9. 9Air Sea Battle• First mentioned in 2010 QDR, but did not receive much widespread attention until an article inAmerican Interest by General Schwartz and Admiral Greenert in February of 2012 thatoutlined the concept and need for Air Sea Battle (ASB).• Premise #1: Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) strategies and capabilities of potentialadversaries will erode the ability of the US military to project power to “hot spots” and willerode security guarantees of the US, which will undermine US political influence.• Premise #2: US military must retain ability to ensure access to all areas of the globe becauseAmerican interests are global and threats to US interests can develop from anywhere in theWorld. Evidence provided was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, and Operations Desert Shield andDesert Storm.• Premise #3: A fixed focus on a particular geography and reliance on large, expensiveoverseas installations is out of date.• Budget Question: What will it cost for the US to field the necessary capabilities to ensureaccess to critical regions, such as the Asia-Pacific or Southwest Asia (i.e. the Middle East),and what tradeoffs, such as a much US ground forces, will be considered. The Air Sea BattleOffice was established, in part, to ensure such funding for such capabilities is retained despitethe constrained defense budget.
  10. 10. 10First and Second Island Chains and AirSea BattleSource: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment. Greg Jaffe, GeneThorp, Bill Webster/The Washington Post. Published on August 1, 2012.
  11. 11. 11Other Threats to US Forces in AsiaPacificSource: “Kim Jong Un Reveals His ‘US Mainland StrikePlan’,” March 29th, 2013. Daily Mail.North Korean MissileRanges (Max):Nodong: 1,000 kmTaepodong-1: 2,200 kmMusadan: 4,000 kmTaepodong-2: 6,000 kmSource: BBC News, NorthKorea Missile Program, April12, 2013How will capabilities of North Koreaand China evolve? Will a move toGuam, which won’t be completedtill at least 2020, providesignificantly more protection thanthe current posture?
  12. 12. 12USMC Pacific Posture• DoD’s stated policy is to have approximately 22,000 Marines west of theInternational Dateline, the vast majority of which are assigned to Japan. Thatwas the goal before the pivot and will continue under the proposedrebalancing.• However, as of December 31, 2012, the number of Marines in East Asia andthe Pacific was about 19,000, with 18,676 in Japan. Because of OCOdeployments the number of units on Okinawa via Unit Deployment Plans isless than before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.• The current posture places the vast majority of the 22,000 Marines at basesin Okinawa and the Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in YamaguchiPrefecture.• The future posture calls for the 22,000 Marines to be in Okinawa, Iwakuni,Guam and Australia.
  13. 13. 13USMC Posture Challenges• Command and Control because of the separation of HQ units at differentlocations. Current the III Marine Expeditionary Force, the III Division, and theIII Marine Expeditionary Brigade HQs are all in Okinawa. Not the case underthe proposed posture.• Tyranny of Distance in the Pacific and the effect on war plans and otheroperational considerations, especially in light of an amphibious sealiftshortfall.• Breaking up USMC presence into small, geographically distributed piecescould result in a loss of economies of scale.• Long Construction Timetable• Costs
  14. 14. 14Final Thoughts• DoD faces challenges if they are faced with flat or declining budgets. Realgrowth in the defense budget allowed for DoD to maintain personnel levelsduring a time of significant increases in personnel and operation andmaintain costs.• DoD might be faced with significant reductions in personnel levels for groundforces that could affect basing plans for US forces.• The current law (the Budget Control Act), long-term budget situation, anddiminished support for defense spending could significantly constraindefense spending over the next decade.• Although the Asia-Pacific is a region of great importance to the UnitedStates, much more work is needed to make sure the structure, strategy andfunding of DoD is aligned if the “pivot” to Asia is to be successful.

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