The document discusses the low priority voters in Japan place on defense issues, with key election concerns focusing on economic policy and social security. It critiques Japan's reactive security policy under the Yoshida doctrine, emphasizing limited military investments without conscription and challenges in forming stronger regional alliances. Overall, while Japan's defense strategy maintains safety and satisfies the US, under-investment poses risks to national security and deterrence capabilities.

1. Debating defense?
Robert Dujarric
Temple University Japan
robertdujarric@gmail.com
1 December 2014

2. Voters don’t care
• Top issue in for the election:
– 35% economic policy
– 27% social security.
– 10% fiscal rehabilitation.
– 8% nuclear power and energy policy.
– 53% don’t approve collective self-defense.

3. Voters don’t care
• Most important tasks for Cabinet (May 2014)
– Economy: 55%
– Welfare: 50%
– Public finance: 18%
– Energy/nuke power: 17%
– Post 3/11 reconstruction: 16%
– Defense/diplomacy: 10% (LDP voters: 16%)
– Constitutional revision: 4%

4. Japanese security policy
• Yoshida Doctrine alive and well.

5. Japanese security policy
• Reactive/passive:
– No effort to shape environment militarily.
– Low non-military profile too (aid, public
diplomacy, immigration).
– Partial attempts develop stronger regional allies:
• Ties with ROK hurt by (a) history (b) Tokdo/Takeshima
(c) lack of vision in Tokyo, (d) ROK politics.
• Relations with SE Asia developing but limited.
• Stronger defense ties with Australia, distance is issue.
• Budget caps undermine policy.

6. Japan military outlays in perspective
• Defense expenditures % gdp:
– Japan: 1.0-1.5% + no conscription
– Singapore: 3.5% + conscription.
– South Korea: 2.5% + conscription
– Canada: 1.0% + closest integration with US.
– W. Germany Cold War 1980: 3.0% + conscription.
• SDF not a priority for Japan.

7. Effectiveness of Japanese policy?
• Keeps Japan safe.
• Satisfies US (mostly).
• Zero dead.
• Low cost 1.0-1.5% gdp.
• Enough (with US) to deter China? Unknown.
Risk: under-investment in national security
hurts deterrence, ability to fight/win.

8. Sheep in wolf’s clothing
© Kimi Kamei