Running head: THE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 1 PAGE 4 THE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Aid on Gross Domestic Product in Developing Countries: A Case for the Democratic Republic of the Congo 25/25 Author Note Mathew A. Schulz, Department of Economics, Salem State University. Mathew A. Schulz will be attending Boston University for his master’s degree in city planning, focusing on development and public policy. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to [email protected] Abstract Prompting this analysis was the International Monetary Fund’s 2010 report of gross domestic product purchase power parity per capita, where the Democratic Republic of the Congo (D.R. Congo) ranked last, at a meager $328 (U.S.) annually. With the recent debates concerning whether or not sub-Saharan African countries have benefited from capital inflows, this paper explores the effects of foreign direct investment and foreign aid on the D.R. Congo’s gross domestic product. In the D.R. Congo, empirical evidence suggests that a slight positive correlation exists between capital inflows and gross domestic product. However, due to the volatility of foreign direct investment and aid, comprehensive policies promoting economic and political stability should be examined. The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Aid On Gross Domestic Product in Developing Countries: A Case for the Democratic Republic of the Congo The history of the effectiveness of capital inflows to Africa has raised much debate as to whether or not any contributions have increased development. The literature overviews of the area, particularly in regards to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), have identified many determinant variables of growth. Highlighting several forms such as foreign direct investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA), domestic savings, improved infrastructure, debt relief, and reinvestment, among others, many economists conclude that the first two are most important for increasing economic growth. It is FDI and foreign aid (AID), both external sources, which benefit economic expansion in less developed countries (LDCs). This phenomenon, despite not always being true, has gained recent momentum. According to Collier and Gunning (1999) their study for the period between 1960-1989 found one explanatory variable, investment to GDP ratio, statistically significant in explaining growth in Africa. They concluded that African countries with higher investment to GDP ratios had higher economic growth rates. Another study, Loots (2003) found similar results. The study, covering the period from 1995-2000, found that per-capita growth during the period was directly related to external capital inflows. In particular, Loots (2003) noted that FDI and ODA flows were important in understanding the growth of African countries in the mid to late 90s. The objectiv.

1. Running head: THE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT
INVESTMENT
1
PAGE
4
THE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Aid on
Gross Domestic Product in Developing Countries: A Case for
the Democratic Republic of the Congo
25/25
Author Note
Mathew A. Schulz, Department of Economics, Salem State
University.
Mathew A. Schulz will be attending Boston University for his
master’s degree in city planning, focusing on development and
public policy. Correspondence concerning this article should be
addressed to [email protected]
Abstract
Prompting this analysis was the International Monetary Fund’s
2010 report of gross domestic product purchase power parity
per capita, where the Democratic Republic of the Congo (D.R.
Congo) ranked last, at a meager $328 (U.S.) annually. With the
recent debates concerning whether or not sub-Saharan African
countries have benefited from capital inflows, this paper
explores the effects of foreign direct investment and foreign aid
on the D.R. Congo’s gross domestic product. In the D.R.

2. Congo, empirical evidence suggests that a slight positive
correlation exists between capital inflows and gross domestic
product. However, due to the volatility of foreign direct
investment and aid, comprehensive policies promoting
economic and political stability should be examined.
The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Aid On
Gross Domestic Product in Developing Countries: A Case for
the Democratic Republic of the Congo
The history of the effectiveness of capital inflows to Africa has
raised much debate as to whether or not any contributions have
increased development. The literature overviews of the area,
particularly in regards to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), have
identified many determinant variables of growth. Highlighting
several forms such as foreign direct investment (FDI), official
development assistance (ODA), domestic savings, improved
infrastructure, debt relief, and reinvestment, among others,
many economists conclude that the first two are most important
for increasing economic growth. It is FDI and foreign aid
(AID), both external sources, which benefit economic expansion
in less developed countries (LDCs). This phenomenon, despite
not always being true, has gained recent momentum. According
to Collier and Gunning (1999) their study for the period
between 1960-1989 found one explanatory variable, investment
to GDP ratio, statistically significant in explaining growth in
Africa. They concluded that African countries with higher
investment to GDP ratios had higher economic growth rates.
Another study, Loots (2003) found similar results. The study,
covering the period from 1995-2000, found that per-capita
growth during the period was directly related to external capital
inflows. In particular, Loots (2003) noted that FDI and ODA
flows were important in understanding the growth of African
countries in the mid to late 90s.

3. The objective of this paper is to further explore the explanatory
power of capital flows to developing countries. In particular, it
will cover the two decades on either side of the centuries turn,
from 1990-2009. Instead of looking at several SSA countries it
will focus specifically on the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(D.R. Congo). Why? Because in the International Monetary
Fund’s 2010 list of countries GDP purchase power parity per
capita, it ranked 183rd, or more notably, last. For this reason,
if any developmental growth from external capital flows can
explain and ultimately increase the D.R. Congo’s meager $328
(U.S.) per capita, then it should be beneficially important to
understand. Furthermore, closer examination of the empirical
evidence will assist in determining whether or not any
exogenous variables are determinants in explaining the D.R.
Congo’s growth. In other words, are there underlying
foundations of FDI and AID that can help enhance and support
economic development for the country?
The format this paper
will take is as follows: (1) a methodology section that previews
the data with a research design that explains the two regression
models, (2) an analysis section that details the data of the two
models and accompanying graphs, noting any inconsistencies
and potential for further research, and (3) a discussion section
that summarizes the findings and identifies possible policy
initiatives.
Methodology
In order to understand if a correlation exists among capital
flows to the D.R. Congo, in particular, an increase in gross
domestic product as measured against foreign direct investment
and foreign aid, several analyses were completed. Using 1990-
2009 time-series data from the World Bank and United Nations

4. Conference on Trade and Development, regression analyses
utilizing the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, were run to
explain the relationship among variables.
Data
Table 1 displays the data used within the regressions.
Table 1: Democratic Republic of the Congo: GDP, Foreign Aid,
and FDI; 1990-2009
Year
Gross Domestic Product
Foreign Aid
Direct Investment
1990
$9,349,764,580
$895,790,000
-$14,460,000
1991
$9,087,965,282
$475,280,000
$12,390,000
1992
$8,206,227,134
$268,520,000
-$730,000
1993
$10,707,792,340
$177,820,000

5. $6,870,000
1994
$5,820,383,306
$244,810,000
$1,500,000
1995
$5,643,439,262
$194,750,000
-$22,350,000
1996
$5,771,454,884
$166,110,000
$24,790,000
1997
$6,090,840,527
$157,610,000
-$44,350,000
1998
$6,217,806,275
$125,460,000
$61,330,000
1999
$4,711,272,704
$132,380,000
$11,160,000
2000
$4,305,797,176
$177,120,000
$72,000,000
2001
$4,691,816,707
$245,310,000
$80,300,000
2002
$5,547,714,815
$1,174,950,000

6. $141,100,000
2003
$5,673,197,494
$5,416,900,000
$391,300,000
2004
$6,569,986,940
$1,918,810,000
$409,000,000
2005
$7,103,539,717
$1,881,450,000
$0
2006
$8,543,323,220
$2,197,070,000
$256,100,000
2007
$9,977,079,383
$1,356,380,000
$1,808,000,000
2008
$11,668,379,642
$1,768,520,000
$1,726,800,000
2009
$11,204,139,345
$2,353,560,000
$663,800,000
NOTE: Data courteous of the World Bank and the United
Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Research Design

7. To begin, the first regression evaluated the 1990-2009 annual
gross domestic product (GDP) with annual foreign direct
investment (FDI). The following model was created to explain
the variation between those two variables:
Y = β0 + β1 X1 + u
GDP = β0 + β1 (FDI) + u
where Y is the dependent variable, annual gross domestic
product; β0 is the intercept of the regression line; β1 is the
slope of the regression line; X1 is the independent variable,
annual foreign direct investment; and u is the error term, or
deviation from the average.
The second, regression evaluated the 1990-2009 annual gross
domestic product (GDP) with annual foreign aid. The following
model was created to explain the variation between those two
variables:
Y = β0 + β1 X1 + u
GDP = β0 + β1 (AID) + u
where Y is the dependent variable, annual gross domestic
product; β0 is the intercept of the regression line; β1 is the
slope of the regression line; X1 is the independent variable,
annual foreign aid; and u is the error term, or deviation from the
average.
Analysis
The two regressions address the hypothesis that the Democratic
Republic of Congo’s gross domestic product will rise as capital
inflows increase. Increases in capital flows will be defined by
the dependent variable. That is, the first regression measures

8. any increases from foreign direct investment and, the second,
any increases from foreign aid. Following the models, further
explanation of the correlation between capital inflows and gross
domestic product will be generated through two graphs. The
first graph outlines GDP with FDI and the second graph GDP
with AID.
Regression I:
SUMMARY OUTPUT (FDI)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.56457136
R Square
0.31874082
Adj R Sqr
0.280893088

9. Std Error
1959904146
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Sig F
Regression
1
0.009504043
Residual
18
Total

10. 19
Coefficients
Std Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept
6670880562
495940571.3
13.45096761
7.86886E-11
FDI
2.412783393
0.831418
2.90201005
0.009504043
The summary output for the first regression produced the
following model:
GDP = $6.671 billion + $2.417 million (FDI)
The model rejects the null hypothesis, Ho: β1 = 0, accepting .01
error, or at a confidence level of 99%, thus showing that FDI
matters in explaining GDP. The D.R. Congo can expect to have
a GDP of $6.671 billion with zero FDI. Each time FDI
increases by one unit, $1 million in this instance, they can
expect an increase in GDP by $2.417 million. The model’s
goodness of fit, the R-square, tells us that 32% of the variation
in GDP is explained by FDI. Furthermore, the p-value for

11. coefficient X1, FDI, is .0095, which tests the statistical
significance of the term, indicating that it is highly significant.
Regression II:
SUMMARY OUTPUT (AID)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.183393923
R Square
0.033633331
Adj R Sqr
-0.02005370
Std Error
2334262103

12. Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Sig F
Regression
1
0.43895921
Residual
18
Total
19

13. Coefficients
Std Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept
6995968728
682970126.3
10.24344764
6.1600E-09
AID
0.326910635
0.413027364
0.791498732
0.43895921
The summary output for the second regression produced the
following model:
GDP = $6.996 billion + $326,910 (AID)
The model rejects the null hypothesis, Ho: β1 = 0, accepting .44
error, albeit at a lower confidence level, still showing that AID
matters in explaining GDP. The D.R. Congo can expect to have
a GDP of $6.996 billion with zero AID. Each time AID
increases by one unit, $1 million in this instance, they can
expect an increase in GDP by $326,910. The model’s goodness
of fit, the R-square, tells us that only 3.4% of the variation in
GDP is explained by AID. Furthermore, the p-value for
coefficient X1, AID, is .4390, which tests the statistical
significance of the term, indicating that it may not be
significant.
Graph I:

14. Charting GDP with FDI produced the outcome above. Looking
at the graph, the D.R. Congo’s GDP appears to have fluctuated
over the two decades, dipping as low as nearly $4 billion at the
turn of the century and reaching its peak of almost $12 billion
in 2008. Following a U-shaped curve, GDP for the D.R. Congo
decreased consistently in the 90s while increasing in the 00s.
FDI, on the other hand, follows a much more linear,
horizontally stagnate line, only showing a slight uptick in 2006
and decreasing two years later. Moreover, FDI throughout the
90s, specifically in 1990, 1995, and 1997, respectively, was
negative.
Graph II:
Charting GDP with AID produced the outcome above, where
GDP stayed consistent with Graph I. AID, however, while
never negative over the 20-year period, did stay relatively linear
throughout the 90s. At the turn of the century a sharp increase
in foreign aid, roughly $5.5 billion can be seen. Despite
decreasing rather quickly it remains consistent for the rest of
the 00s, hovering near $2 billion.
Results
Although these analyses show positive correlations they do not
prove causation.
Simple regression analysis does not consider the several
variables that influence GDP. In addition to the common four
components of GDP: consumption, investment, government
spending, and net exports, some omitted variables for future
research should be considered. For instance, as mentioned in
the introduction, variables such as domestic savings, improved
infrastructure, debt relief, and reinvestment should be
considered. Multiple regressions utilizing these additional
variables may prove more beneficial as they might create a

15. clearer understanding of important relationships between GDP
and capital inflows.
Outliers, another source of data discrimination, are another
concern. Despite having run both regressions with outliers, a
judgment call, I felt that removing them from the analysis
would distort a significant piece of data. That is, any capital
inflows from a previous year, regardless of size, can have a
significant impact on GDP; both in its ability to boost an
economies growth rate within an individual year as well as the
compounding results of investment on following years.
Discussion
Do capital inflows, specifically foreign direct investment and
foreign aid, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo affect
gross domestic product? Clearly, in the two decades between
1999-2009, there appears to be at least some positive
correlation. GDP in the D.R. Congo certainly seems to follow a
similar trend in direction to that of incoming capital inflows to
the country. In other words, while FDI and AID in the 90s
stayed relatively flat, showing minimal inflow even negative at
times, GDP decreased. On the other hand, beginning near the
turn of the century when FDI and AID increased, so did the
D.R. Congo’s GDP. Trending together, GDP to FDI and AID
lends one to believe that capital inflows do matter.
These trends, however, do appear to have inconsistencies. In
particular, is the volatility in FDI and AID. Over the two-
decade period, FDI had large swings ranging from three years of
negative flow, negative $44 million at its lowest, to a high of
nearly $1.8 billion. AID, while never negative, swung from a
low of $125 million to a high of $5.5 billion. Volatility of that
magnitude makes growth very difficult to sustain, especially
when FDI, the more explanatory of the two variables,
inconsistently fluctuates.

16. Because of this, foundationally, more must be understood in
order to create sustainable growth for the D.R. Congo. Policy
initiatives that support continued FDI and AID inflows must be
set in place. In order to minimize the capital inflow volatility
towards the country, the D.R. Congo needs to reduce the risk
associated with investing. By reducing political setbacks
caused by rebellious militants, eliminating fraudulent officials,
implementing trade liberalization policies, and reinforcing safe
and profitable returns for investors, the D.R. Congo can begin
to realize sustainable economic growth.
References
Collier, P., & Gunning, J. W. (1999). Explaining African
Economic Performance. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1),
64-111.
Collier, P., & Gunning, J. W. (1999). Why Has Africa Grown
Slowly? Journal of
Economic Perspectives, 13(3), 3-22.
Loots, E. (2003). Nepad: An Economic Exploration of the
African Peer Review
Mechanism. The Economic Society of South Africa: Paper
Presented at the
Conference of the Economic of South Africa, Conference
September 2003.
Retrieved from
http://www.essa.org.za/download/papers2003.htm.
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2009). Economic Development.
Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2010).

17. Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flows, Annual,
1970-2010 [Data file]. Retrieved from
http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?Repor
tId=88
The World Bank. (2010). Net Official Development Assistance
and Official Aid Received [Data file]. Retrieved from
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ALLD.CD?display
=default
�nice
�I have enjoyed reading your minim research paper, which is
thoroughly done in an organized format. Usually empirical
analysis is not visible within this short time span without
conducting extensive survey, which also need IRB approval. But
you were able to get away with it by collecting relevant data
from a secondary source as a public information. Very nice job!
�Is this your introduction? Need to indicate that. Any research
paper must start with introduction with statement of objectives
and literature review in a separate section or chapter plus
methodology analysis (qualitative or quantitative) and sources
of data. These are the steps to take before you do the analysis.
�good approach!
�the format of …..?
�very good!

18. �excellent point!
�the scope for multiple regression analysis may be limited by
this paper.
�I suppose this is your conclusion. If so, need a separate sub-
title of your discussion section. But analysis followed by
discussion was excellent.
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American Psychological Association. (2001). Publication
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Business Issues, 13, 32-37. Retrieved March 3, 1999 from:
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25. concludes with a sentence describing the importance of the
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Sentences are complete, grammatically correct, logical, concise,
and free of flowery adjectives, clichés, slang, jargon, and bias.
Seriation or items in a series, follows acceptable format. (APA,
2001, pp. 115-117).
Numbers less than ten are written out; ten and above are written
in numerical form. NOTE: This is a very general rule. The rules
for the correct way to express numbers are lengthy and complex
(Aaron, 2001, pp. 276-278; APA, 2001, pp. 122-127).
There is a conclusion summarizing the major points made in the
paper. It is not labeled and it leaves the reader with a final
thought.
The paper has obviously been proofread, edited, and corrected
for spelling errors.
ALL elements required in the assignment have been addressed
and are easily located (preferably with a heading for each).
Major topics, assertions, original thoughts, and statistics have
all been properly supported with cited references.

26. All citations follow acceptable format. Paraphrased information
cites author/year; direct quotes are in quotation marks and cites
author/ year/ page number; quotes of greater than 40 words are
indented five spaces, double-spaced, and end with citation
information without period.
The reference page is titled References, with the title centered.
References are alphabetized and double-spaced, and include
only the references cited in the body of the paper.
The number of references matches the complexity of the
assignment. References are current, from scholarly sources, and
follow acceptable format.
The paper (minus title page, reference page, and appendix) is
the length specified for the assignment.
The paper is stapled in the upper left corner for submission (no
binder).
Guidelines of Writing Research Paper the writing style and
basic rules:
1. Writing Style: The following general styles as guided by
APA(www.apa.org)
a. Font size 12, Time New Roman, normal (not bold), double
spaced, the first line of each paragraph of the paper must be
indented to the right by 1 inch on the ruler, and no bold or
italic except some quotation or highlighting certain important
points or referenced comments by someone else.
b. Not to copy any one’s writing of article/book/news clip used,
except quoting with appropriate reference with parenthesis (to
be discussed in the class)
c. Will explain in the class how to write the list of references

27. and will also be posted in on-line supplement web.
d. Avoid writing: I, we, you, me, us, ours, etc.
e. Header of each page on the right corner should highlight the
core subject of your topic/assignment (to be discussed in the
class) and your name
f. The Length of each of the two research papers: 7-10 pages,
not including reference list, cover page, abstract and table of
contents.
In addition to the above guidelines for effective writing for
effective writing of upper level academic paper, the following
seven Cs are important to keep in mind.
2. The Seven Cs of Effective Writing
The following guidelines can help students with the 7 Cs of
Effective Writing on assignments. Providing the 7 Cs is a useful
way of instilling sound writing habits. Effective writing has the
following seven characteristics:
1. Complete - Effective writing uses topic sentences,
explanations, and supporting evidence. It has only one main
idea in each sentence and one main idea in each paragraph.
2. Concise - Effective writing does not use unnecessary
words, trite phrases, or redundancies.
3. Courteous - The tone of effective writing avoids
demeaning or patronizing language, sexist or other offensive
terminology, inappropriate humor, accusatory tone, terse
wording, and imperative voice (expresses a request or demand).
4. Concrete - Active, right-branching sentences (sentences
that start with a subject, followed by a verb and object) are
characteristic of effective writing. Avoid abstract words
whenever possible.
5. Clear - Effective writing is clear and unambiguous.

28. Subjects and verbs agree, and pronoun antecedents are clear. In
addition, the writing is free of jargon and slang.
6. Coherent- Organization is key to effective writing.
Sentences should flow in a logical sequence and not "jar" the
reader. Transitional elements should show the relationship of
one idea to another.
7. Correct- Mechanically correct writing is a hallmark of
effective writing. The writing must be mechanically correct
with regard to spelling, grammar, usage, punctuation, and
format.
Important Check Points in writing a mini-research Paper
Hello Class, please make sure you follow the guidelines I have
posted in the
folder in BB. The document for steps to write paper is the most
important one.
In there, Introduction section must have a clear
objective/mission statement for
your research work to accomplish. You also need to clarify it
briefly before you
move to the next section for Literature Review. Without
objective in Introduction,
your paper will be rejected and will have to rely on the best
score of the 2
papers, if submitted both.
In Introduction, you also need to start with the issues related to
your topic from
relevant reading materials with proper citations (last name of
author, Yr of

29. publication, and P#s you read from). Citations are very
important to authenticate
your reading resources (to list in reference list where you give
citations from).
In addition to the guidelines, I like to highlight the following
check points for your
paper to be substantial for proper assessment.
1. Topic should be your headline start with on the top of the
page (cover Page)
and also on the top of the Page to start with introduction.
2. Format of the paper is very important with all requirements I
have listed.
3. Make sure your objective statement is clear in Introduction
related to your
topic.
4. Citations must be complete wherever you write your
experience from reading,
such as your writing contents in Introduction, Literature review,
Methodology
section, Analysis section, etc.
5. Make sure to follow the reference and citation procedure by
APA guidelines
that I posted. Citations must have authors' last names, yr of
publication, and P#,
p. you have read from). In your literature review where you
would have to
provide many citations because you would have to read many
articles and
books, magazines for understanding how other authors made
contribution to

30. this area of your research topic.
6. Make sure your methodology of research analysis is clear
even though it
could be a just paragraph. It has to have your model structure of
analysis with
identification of variables and their relationship and how to
measure. Then state
the type of data (mostly secondary I suppose) of those variables
and sources of
data collection and why the research approach is qualitative or
quantitative
(briefly give reasons).
7. Analysis part is the longest section of your research paper
and it has to have
detail data with chart, table and graphs (make sure to give
sources of those
information) with your own analysis in your own words
including the results of
your analysis related to you objective mentioned in Introduction
section.
8. Conclusion section could be very brief containing your
results from analysis
and how did you fulfill your objective or not and strengths and
weaknesses of
your paper and policy recommendations, if any.
9. Make sure you list your references based on APA guidelines,
I posted a
sample of references in the folder to follow.

31. 10. Abstract is your brief summary of your research paper to be
written in 200
words or less after completion of your research work. The
contents for abstract
must include objective from Introduction, research methodology
used, research
results and concluding points. Abstract has to be placed before
the Introduction
section write after the table of contents with page #s.
Grade Rubric: Maximum of 40 points distributed
as follows:
Abstract, Intro, Literature review, Methodology and
Conclusion sections will carrya
maximum of 4 points each for 20 points.
Analysis: maximum of 20 points.