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Chapter 9
The International Monetary and Financial Environment
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International Business: The New Realities
S. Tamer Cavusgil, Gary Knight, John R. Riesenberger
Module 9 Learning Outcomes
Discuss the exchange rates and currencies in international
business.
Discuss the monetary and financial systems.
Identify the key players in the monetary and financial systems.
2
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Module 10 Learning Outcomes
Define international financial management.
Identify the key tasks in international financial management.
Describe how to manage the diversity of international
accounting and tax practices.
3
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Objectives
9.1 Learn about exchange rates and currencies in international
business.
9.2 Explain how exchange rates are determined.
9.3 Understand the emergence of the modern exchange rate
system.
9.4 Describe the monetary and financial systems.
9.5 Identify the key players in the monetary and financial
systems.
9.6 Understand the global debt crisis.
4
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Outline
The European Union and the Euro
Exchange Rates and Currencies in International Business
How Exchange Rates are Determined
Emergence of the Modern Exchange Rate System
The Monetary and Financial Systems
Key Players in the Monetary and Financial System
The Global Debt Crisis
Closing Case: Financial Contagion and the Global Financial
Crisis
5
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The European Union and the Euro
9-1. What benefits does using a single currency, the euro,
provide to European countries?
9-2. What challenges does the European Central Bank face in
developing monetary policy for the EU?
9-3. What is the effect of a weak euro on European exporters?
What is the effect on European consumers?
6
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9-1. What benefits does using a single currency, the euro,
provide to European countries?
A:
9-2. What challenges does the European Central Bank face in
developing monetary policy for the EU?
A:
9-3. What is the effect of a weak euro on European exporters?
What is the effect on European consumers?
A;
6
The European Union and the Euro
The European Union (EU) was established in 1992. In 2015, it
had 28 member countries. The EU created the European
Monetary Union (EMU) and the European Central Bank (ECB)
with the goal of establishing a common currency, the euro. In
2002, euro banknotes and coins were issued and replaced older,
national currencies.
7
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The European Union and the Euro
In 2015, the euro was the sole official currency of 19 EU
member states: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia,
and Spain
8
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The European Union and the Euro
The ECB treats the eurozone as one region rather than as
separate countries with differing economic conditions. ECB
monetary policy is complex because of the diverse economic
and fiscal conditions that characterize each eurozone country.
For example, the ECB aims to keep inflation low by carefully
limiting the supply of euros, but the policy response for
controlling deflation, just as harmful as inflation, is to increase
the money supply. ECB policy aimed at fixing deflation in one
country might trigger inflation in another. Devising monetary
policy that suits economic conditions in all EMU countries is
challenging.
9
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The European Union and the Euro
Monetary policy is further complicated by the recent -admission
into the EU of lower-income countries such as Slovakia and
Slovenia. As more countries join the EU, the risk of very
diverse economic conditions across the union rises.
Such pressures have increased in Europe’s recent
economic crisis, especially in Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The
EU plan to assist Greece includes loans and surveillance from
the ECB. The crisis has sparked discussion about the risks of
EU monetary integration and survival of the euro.
10
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The European Union and the Euro
A key goal of launching the euro was to shield EMU countries
from exchange rate risk by creating a large, unified economy.
Historically, the euro was relatively strong against the U.S.
dollar.
More recently the euro has weakened. A weak euro helps
European exporters because it makes their products less
expensive to foreign importers. A weak euro yields stronger
earnings for European MNEs when they convert non-euro
profits into euros. On the negative side, a weak euro decreases
the buying power of European firms and consumers who
purchase non-euro foreign goods.
11
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The European Union and the Euro
The success of the euro as a unifying force in Europe has
changed the international balance of power. The EU and EMU
have empowered European governments to challenge U.S.
policy initiatives in the wider global arena.
The central banks of numerous countries—including Canada,
China, and Russia—have given greater weight to the euro in
their foreign currency reserves. Some governments are
increasing their euro holdings, and Asia is now less dollar-
centric than in the past.
12
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Exchange Rates and Currencies in International Business
Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies
Foreign Exchange Markets
Currency Risk
Fluctuating exchange rates
13
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Exchange Rates and Currencies in International Business
More than 150 currencies are in use around the world today.
Cross-border transactions occur through an exchange of these
currencies between buyers and sellers.
A currency is a form of money and a unit of exchange. Each
country prefers using its own unique currency, which
complicates international business transactions. When buying a
product or service from a Mexican supplier, for example, you
must convert your own currency to Mexican pesos to pay the
supplier.
14
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Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies
The exchange rate—the price of one currency expressed in
terms of another—varies over time.
A convertible currency can be easily exchanged for other
currencies. The most easily convertible are called hard
currencies and include the British pound, European euro,
Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar.
They are strong, stable currencies that are universally accepted
and used most often for international transactions.
15
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Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies
A currency is nonconvertible when it is not acceptable for
international transactions. Some governments may not allow
their currency to be converted into a foreign currency.
They prevent this conversion to preserve their supply of hard
currencies, such as the euro or the U.S. dollar, or to avoid the
problem of capital flight.
16
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Foreign Exchange Markets
Money facilitates payment for the products and services that
companies sell. Getting paid in your own country is
straightforward; the U.S. dollar is accepted throughout the
United States, the euro is widely used in Europe, and the
Japanese use the yen to transact with each other.
But suppose a Canadian needs to pay a Japanese, or a Japanese
needs to pay an Italian, or an Italian needs to pay a Canadian.
What then?
17
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Foreign Exchange Markets
The Japanese wants to be paid in yen, the Italian wants to be
paid in euros, and the Canadian wants to be paid in Canadian
dollars. All these currencies are known as foreign exchange.
Foreign exchange represents all forms of money that are traded
internationally, including foreign currencies, bank deposits,
checks, and electronic transfers. Foreign exchange resolves the
problem of making international payments and facilitates
international investment and borrowing among firms, banks, and
governments.
18
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Currency Risk
In 1999, 11 EU countries switched to the euro, eliminating the
problem of exchange rate fluctuations in trade and investment
with each other. By 2015, 19 member states were participating
in the eurozone.
Other countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the
Middle East have opted to use a regional or hard currency. The
challenges posed by fluctuating exchange rates motivate
countries to coordinate their monetary policies.
Governments attempt to manage exchange rates by buying and
selling hard currencies and by keeping inflation under control.
However, the foreign exchange market is huge and it shifts very
quickly. Even major governments have difficulty controlling
exchange rate movements.
19
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Currency Risk
Fluctuating exchange rates affect both firms and customers.
Suppose today the euro–dollar exchange rate is €1 = $1; that is,
for a European to buy one U.S. dollar, he must pay one euro.
Next, suppose that during the coming year the exchange rate
goes to €1.50 = $1. Now the dollar is much more expensive to
European firms and consumers than before—it costs 50 percent
more to acquire a dollar. Let’s examine the effect of this change
on Europeans.
20
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Effect on European Firms
European firms must pay more for inputs from the United
States, such as raw materials, components, and support services
they use to produce finished products and services.
Higher input costs reduce profitability and may force firms to
raise prices to final -customers; these higher prices reduce
customer demand for goods and services.
Because the euro has become less expensive for U.S.
consumers, firms can increase their exports to the United States.
Firms can even raise their export prices and remain -competitive
in the U.S. market.
Increased exports to the United States generate higher revenues
and higher profits.
21
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Effect on European Consumers
Because U.S. products and services now cost more, European
consumers demand fewer of them.
The cost of living rises for those Europeans who consume many
dollar-denominated imports.
Fewer European tourists can afford to visit the United States.
Fewer European students study at U.S. universities.
22
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Currency Risk
In 2014–2015, U.S. companies such as Caterpillar and
Microsoft saw dramatic falls in their international sales due to
strengthening of the U.S. dollar against world currencies. In the
year through June 2015, the dollar rose in value by more than
20 percent against the EU euro and the Japanese yen.
Sales at Tiffany’s department store in New York fell nearly 10
percent as a strong U.S. dollar resulted in fewer European
tourists visiting the United States. Tiffany’s depends heavily on
foreign tourists for sales at its flagship stores. Meanwhile,
American tourists flocked to Europe in the summer of 2015 as
the dollar hit a 12-year high against the euro. European exports
to nations outside the eurozone soared. The cheaper euro made
European travel and products a bargain
23
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How Exchange Rates are Determined
Economic Growth
Inflation and Interest Rates
Market Psychology
Government Action
24
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How Exchange Rates are Determined
In a free market, the price of any currency—that is, its exchange
rate—is determined by supply and demand. Supply and demand
adjust according to market forces.
Exchange rates fluctuate constantly because the global market
for most major currencies is free and active. Continuous shifts
in the supply of and demand for dollars result in continuous
changes in the dollar -exchange rate. Some currencies are
pegged to fixed exchange rates and, thus, may not respond to
market forces.
25
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How Exchange Rates are Determined
All else being equal,
The greater the supply of a currency, the lower its price.
The lower the supply of a currency, the higher its price.
The greater the demand for a currency, the higher its price.
The lower the demand for a currency, the lower its price.
26
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How Exchange Rates are Determined
Suppose a Canadian consumer wants to buy a BMW, sourced
from Germany and priced at the nominal price of 30,000 euros.
Assume further that the exchange rate of the euro to the
Canadian dollar is €1 = $1.25. Now suppose the consumer
delays six months, during which the exchange rate shifts,
becoming €1 = $1.50. That is, due to increased demand for
and/or decreased supply of euros, the euro has become more
expensive to Canadian customers.
27
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How Exchange Rates are Determined
Assuming the euro price of the BMW remains unchanged, the
car will now cost more in Canadian dollars, making the
consumer less inclined to buy the BMW.
By contrast, if, during the six-month period, the euro becomes
cheaper (with, say, an exchange rate of €1 = $1), the Canadian
consumer will be more inclined to buy the BMW. As this
example implies, the greater the demand for a country’s
products and services, the greater the demand for its currency.
28
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Economic Growth
Economic growth is the increase in value of the goods and
services an economy produces. To ensure accuracy, we usually
measure economic growth of a nation as the annual increase in
real GDP in which the inflation rate is subtracted from the
growth rate.
To accommodate economic growth, the central bank increases
the nation’s money supply. The central bank is the monetary
authority in each country that regulates the money supply,
issues currency, and manages the exchange rate of the nation’s
currency relative to other currencies.
Economic growth is associated with an increase in the supply
and demand of the nation’s money supply and, by extension, the
nation’s currency. Thus, it has a strong influence on the supply
and demand for national currencies. For example, recent rapid
economic growth in East Asian countries has increased demand
for their currencies by firms and individuals, both domestic and
foreign.
29
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Inflation and Interest Rates
Inflation is an increase in the price of goods and services. When
inflation occurs, money buys less than in preceding years.
Interest rates and inflation are closely related. In countries with
high inflation, interest rates tend to be high because investors
expect to be compensated for the inflation-induced decline in
the value of their money.
If inflation is running at 10 percent, for example, banks must
pay more than 10 percent interest to attract customers to open
savings accounts.
30
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Inflation and Interest Rates
Inflation occurs when demand for money grows more rapidly
than supply, or when the central bank increases the nation’s
money supply faster than the rise in national productive output.
Inflation is often a problem for developing economies and
emerging markets.
When inflation occurs, the value of the nation’s currency will
fall relative to foreign currencies.
31
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Market Psychology
Exchange rates are often affected by market psychology, the
unpredictable behavior of investors. Herding is the tendency of
investors to mimic others’ actions. Momentum trading occurs
when investors buy stocks whose prices have been rising and
sell stocks whose prices have been falling.
Herding and momentum trading tend to occur in the wake of
financial crises. Recently, Brazil, Russia, and other emerging
markets have experienced large-scale flight of portfolio
investment amid concerns about deteriorating economic
conditions. Foreign investors have panicked and many have
deserted stocks in those countries.
32
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Government Action
The pricing of currencies affects company performance. When a
nation’s currency is expensive to foreigners, its exports are
likely to fall.
When a nation’s currency is cheap to foreigners, exports
increase.
When the value of a nation’s currency depreciates over a
prolonged period, consumer and investor confidence can be
undermined.
Steep currency depreciation weakens the nation’s ability to pay
foreign lenders, possibly leading to economic and political
crisis.
33
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Government Action
To minimize these effects, governments often act to influence
the value of their own currencies. The Chinese government
regularly intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep the
renminbi undervalued, helping to ensure that Chinese exports
remain strong.
34
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Government Action
An undervalued national currency can result in a trade surplus.
A trade surplus arises when a nation’s exports exceed its
imports for a specific period of time, causing a net inflow of
foreign exchange.
By contrast, a trade deficit results when a nation’s imports
exceed its exports for a specific period of time, causing a net
outflow of foreign exchange.
The balance of trade is the difference between the monetary
value of a nation’s exports and its imports over the course of a
year.
35
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Emergence of the Modern Exchange Rate System
The Bretton Woods Agreement
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
World Bank
The Modern Exchange Rate System
The Floating Exchange Rate System
The Fixed Exchange Rate System
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The Bretton Woods Agreement
This agreement pegged the value of the U.S. dollar to an
established value of gold at a rate of $35 per ounce. The U.S.
government agreed to buy and sell unlimited amounts of gold to
maintain this fixed rate.
Each of Bretton Woods’ other signatory countries agreed to
establish a par value of its currency in terms of the U.S. dollar
and to maintain this pegged value through central bank
intervention.
In this way, the Bretton Woods system kept exchange rates of
major currencies fixed at a prescribed level relative to the U.S.
dollar and, therefore, to each other.
37
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The Bretton Woods Agreement
In the 1960s, however, emergent global economic conditions led
to high trade deficits in the United States. Gradually growing
demand for U.S. dollars exceeded supply. The U.S. government
could no longer maintain an adequate stock of gold.
This situation put pressure on governments in Europe, Japan,
and the United States to revalue their currencies. As a result,
the link between the U.S. dollar and gold was suspended in
1971. The promise to exchange gold for U.S. dollars was
withdrawn. This action brought an end to the Bretton Woods
system.
38
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The Bretton Woods Agreement
The Bretton Woods agreement left a legacy of principles and
institutions that remain in use today. Specifically, Bretton
Woods established: the International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank.
The IMF is an international agency that attempts to stabilize
currencies by monitoring the foreign exchange systems of
member countries and lending money to developing economies.
The World Bank is an international agency that provides loans
and technical assistance to low- and middle-income countries,
with the goal of -reducing poverty.
39
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The Modern Exchange Rate System
Today most major currencies are traded freely, with their value
floating according to the forces of supply and demand. The
official price of gold was formally abolished. Governments
became free to choose the type of exchange rate system that
best suited their individual needs. Fixed exchange rate systems
were given equal status with floating exchange rate systems.
The exchange rate system today consists of two main types of
foreign exchange management: the floating system and the fixed
system.
40
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The Floating Exchange Rate System
Most -advanced economies use the floating exchange rate
system. Currency values are determined by market forces. Major
world currencies—including the British pound, Canadian dollar,
euro, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen—float independently on
world exchange markets.
Their exchange rates are determined daily by supply and
-demand.
The floating system gives governments the flexibility to modify
monetary policy to fit the circumstances they face at any time.
41
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The Fixed Exchange Rate System
This approach is similar to the system used under the Bretton
Woods agreement and is sometimes called a pegged
exchange rate system.
Using this system, the value of a currency is set relative to the
value of another (or to the value of a basket of currencies) at a
specified rate.
As this reference value rises and falls, so does the currency
pegged to it.
In the past, some currencies were also fixed to some set value of
gold.
42
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The Fixed Exchange Rate System
Many developing economies and some emerging markets use the
fixed system today.
China pegs its currency to the value of a basket of currencies.
Belize pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar. To maintain the peg,
the governments of China and Belize, for instance, will
intervene in currency markets to buy and sell dollars and other
currencies to maintain the exchange rate at a fixed, preset level.
A fixed regime promotes greater stability and predictability of
exchange rate movements and helps stabilize a nation’s
economy.
The central bank must stand ready to fill any gaps between
supply and demand for its currency.
43
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The Monetary and Financial Systems
International Monetary System
Global Financial System
Causes of integration of financial and monetary activity
The evolution of monetary and financial regulations worldwide.
The development of new technologies and payment systems and
the use of the Internet in global financial activities.
Increased global and regional interdependence of financial
markets.
The growing role of single-currency systems, such as the euro.
44
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International Monetary System
The international monetary system consists of the institutional
frameworks, rules, and procedures that govern how national
currencies are exchanged for one another.
By providing a framework for the monetary and foreign
exchange activities of firms and governments worldwide, the
system facilitates international trade and investment.
45
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Global Financial System
The global financial system consists of the collective financial
institutions that facilitate and regulate flows of investment and
capital funds worldwide.
Key players in the system include finance ministries, national
stock exchanges, commercial banks, central banks, the Bank for
International Settlements, the World Bank, and the International
Monetary Fund.
46
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Causes of integration of financial and monetary activity
The growing integration of financial and monetary activity
worldwide has several causes, including:
The evolution of monetary and financial regulations worldwide.
The development of new technologies and payment systems and
the use of the Internet in global financial activities.
Increased global and regional interdependence of financial
markets.
The growing role of single-currency systems, such as the euro.
47
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Key Players in the Monetary and Financial Systems
48
Exhibit 9.4 Key Participants and Relationships in the Global
Monetary and Financial Systems (Cavusgil, 2016, p.242)
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The Firm
As companies engage in international trade and are paid by their
customers abroad, they typically acquire large quantities of
foreign exchange and must convert them to the currency of
the home country. Firms also engage in investment, franchising,
and licensing activities abroad that generate revenues they must
exchange for their home currency.
For example, Jim Moran Enterprises in Florida, the largest
importer of Toyota cars in the United States, imports thousands
of cars every year and must ultimately pay for them in Japanese
yen. Moran deals with the foreign exchange market to convert
U.S. dollars to yen.
49
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National Stock Exchanges and Bond Markets
A stock exchange is a facility for trading securities and other
financial instruments, including shares issued by companies,
trust funds, pension funds, and corporate and government
bonds.
Information technology has revolutionized the functioning of
stock markets, greatly reducing the speed and cost of
transactions. Today, many exchanges are electronic networks
not necessarily tied to a fixed location. Each country sets its
own rules for issuing and redeeming stock.
50
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Commercial Banks
Banks are important players in the global financial sector. They
raise funds by attracting deposits, borrowing money in the
interbank market, or issuing financial instruments in the global
money market or securities markets.
Commercial banks—for example, Bank of America, Mizuho
Bank in Japan, and BBVA in Spain—operate at the most
essential level of the international monetary system. They
circulate money and engage in a wide range of international
financial transactions.
Banks are regulated by national and local governments, which
have a strong interest in ensuring the solvency of their national
banking system.
51
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Commercial Banks
The many types of banks and their primary activities include the
following:
Investment banks underwrite (guarantee the sale of) stock and
bond issues and advise on mergers, such as the merger of
Goldman Sachs in the United States and Nomura Securities in
Japan.
Merchant banks provide capital to firms in the form of shares
rather than loans. They are essentially investment banks that
specialize in international operations. They do not provide
regular banking services to the general public. The Arab-
Malaysian Merchant Bank is an example.
52
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Commercial Banks
Private banks manage the assets of the very rich. Union Bank in
Switzerland (UBS) and ABN AMRO Private Banking in
Luxembourg are examples.
Offshore banks are located in jurisdictions with low taxation
and regulation, such as Switzerland and Bermuda. Banco
General in Panama and Bank of Nova Scotia in the British
Virgin Islands are examples.
Commercial banks deal mainly with corporations or large
businesses. Credit Lyonnais in France and Bank of America are
examples.
53
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Central Banks
As the official national bank of each country, the central bank
regulates the money supply and credit, issues currency, and
manages the rate of exchange.
The central bank also seeks to ensure the safety and soundness
of the national financial system by supervising and regulating
the ­nation’s banking system. A key goal is to keep price
inflation low.
54
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The Bank for International Settlements
Based in Basel, Switzerland, the Bank for International
Settlements is an international organization that fosters
cooperation among central banks and other governmental
agencies.
It provides banking services to central banks and assists them in
devising sound monetary policy. It seeks to support stability in
the global monetary and financial systems and help governments
avoid becoming too indebted.
It also attempts to ensure that central banks maintain reserve
assets and capital/asset ratios above prescribed international
minimums.
55
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International Monetary Fund
Headquartered in Washington, DC, the IMF provides the
framework of and determines the code of behavior for the
international monetary system.
The agency promotes international monetary cooperation,
exchange rate stability, and orderly exchange arrangements and
encourages countries to adopt sound economic policies. These
functions are critical because economic crises can destroy jobs,
slash incomes, and cause human suffering.
56
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The World Bank
Originally known as the International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development, the World Bank was founded to fund
reconstruction of Japan and Europe after World War II.
Today it aims to reduce world poverty and is active in various
development projects to bring water, electricity, and
transportation infrastructure to poor countries.
Headquartered in Washington, DC, the bank is a specialized
agency of the United Nations, with more than one hundred
offices worldwide.
57
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The Global Debt Crisis
Fiscal imbalances are an important source of risk and
uncertainty in the global business environment
Debt has substantially increased in major advanced economies
… by excessive government spending and insufficient revenues
Bottom line: Without significant adjustments, most -advanced
economies face serious threats to fiscal solvency
58
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The Global Debt Crisis
Governments spent huge sums of borrowed money in the latest
global recession to bail out financial systems and reduce
recessionary pressures.
Governments face unfunded liabilities of pension and health
care programs. Japan, the United States, numerous countries in
Europe, and others are suffering under the weight of excessive
government debt.
Since 2012, credit rating agencies Moody’s and Standard &
Poor’s have downgraded the sovereign debt ratings of several
European countries to reflect their susceptibility to growing
financial and monetary risks.
59
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The Global Debt Crisis
Research shows that national debt that exceeds 90 percent of a
nation’s GDP tends to diminish GDP growth, which exacerbates
government debt.
As the government tries to pay down its debt, money is drawn
out of the national money supply. This hinders economic
activity and reduces tax revenues.
In the past few years, numerous countries have surpassed the 90
percent threshold, including Japan, the United States, and
several countries in Europe.
The International Monetary Fund and other agencies have stated
that, without significant adjustments, most -advanced economies
face serious threats to fiscal solvency in the long-run.
60
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Closing Case
Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis
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9-4. Explain the advantages and disadvantages of the
globalization of finance. How did it contribute to the global
financial crisis?
A:
9-5. Describe how the fall of AIG exemplifies contagion. How
did the U.S. government bailout of AIG benefit foreign as well
as U.S. firms and investors? Experts are advocating increased
regulation to prevent contagion. At the national and
international levels, what types of regulation might prevent
future crises?
A:
9-6. Several European countries have adopted a single currency,
the euro. Describe how adopting the euro might benefit
countries in Eastern Europe. What are the advantages and
disadvantages of a single currency regime in international
financial transactions?
A:
9-7. As the world emerges from the global financial crisis, what
is the potential role of each of the following: firms, banks,
central banks, national governments, the International Monetary
Fund, and the World Bank? What is the role of national
governments in stimulating national economic growth?
A:
61
Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis
Growing integration of financial and monetary sectors of the
world’s economies is an important aspect of globalization. The
globalization of finance is characterized by massive cross-
national flows of money and capital and the development of a
giant foreign exchange market. National financial markets are
increasingly interdependent.
Every day around the world, firms access global capital
markets. Banks and brokers move huge sums across national
borders through pensions, mutual funds, life insurance, and
other investments. Among numerous benefits, financial
globalization increases savings and reduces capital costs in
developing economies.
62
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Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis
In 2008, a financial crisis began in the United States and
quickly spread around the world. The crisis arose because
investors lost confidence in the value of thousands of home
mortgages, and commercial banks, mortgage lenders, and
insurance companies became unstable. Stock markets crashed
and many national economies sank into recession.
63
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Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis
The crisis spread to Europe. European banks were drawn into
the financial crisis in part because of their exposure to defaulted
mortgages in the U.S.
The crisis also spread to emerging economies such as Iceland
and Russia that generally lacked the resources to restore
confidence in their economic systems.
64
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The Crisis in Emerging Markets
Eastern Europe is often characterized by a dangerous
combination of devalued local currencies and mounting foreign
currency debt.
This occurs because, as they participate in the global economy,
such countries as Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic
must use hard currencies, or widely recognized foreign
exchange.
Many homeowners in Poland pay their monthly mortgages in
zlotys (Poland’s national currency), but because the loans often
originate in Britain, Germany, or the United States, they
ultimately must be paid in pounds, euros, or dollars.
As currencies in Eastern Europe lose value, nations in the
region struggle to pay their foreign debt.
65
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The IMF and the World Bank
In the wake of the financial crisis, the International Monetary
Fund stepped up efforts to foster cooperation, stability, and
economic growth around the world. The IMF provided more
than $100 billion in loans and credit to emerging countries hit
by falling demand for their exports, collapsing financial
markets, and wary consumers.
For example, the IMF committed lending to Hungary, Iceland,
Poland, and Ukraine. In 2009, Mexico was granted a credit line
worth $47 billion. Similarly, the World Bank provided financial
aid and technical assistance to numerous developing economies.
66
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The IMF and the World Bank
The Bank provides grants and low-interest loans to poor
countries for investments in education, health, infrastructure,
and private sector development. For example, the Bank loaned
millions to El Salvador and other Latin American countries to
buffer against the global financial crisis.
In Africa, the Bank provided millions to finance highway
construction and other infrastructure development. At the same
time, however, though IMF and World Bank loans help
struggling economies, they are yet another form of debt in a
debt-fueled crisis and a debt-ridden world.
67
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Summary
Exchange rates and currencies in international business
How exchange rates are determined
Emergence of the modern exchange rate system
The monetary and financial systems
Key players in the monetary and financial systems
The global debt crisis
68
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68
Assignments and Reminders
Critical Thinking Assignment Mod 9
Discussion Board Mod 10
Quiz Modules 9 & 10
CYU’s
69
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Critical Thinking Assignment
Explain the causes of the global financial and economic crisis
that started in the U.S. in 2007. What effect did it have on the
global economy? How did the global economy recover? What
kind of fiscal and monetary policies were implemented? What
are the challenges that remain for the global economy?
70
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Next Live Session
Our next live session will be on March 19 2019 at 7 pm KSA.
71
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Your Questions
Need clarification? Ask your questions!
72
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Status Check
How is the course proceeding?
What can I help you with?
73
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Chapter 9The International Monetary and Financial Environment.docx

  • 1. Chapter 9 The International Monetary and Financial Environment Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. International Business: The New Realities S. Tamer Cavusgil, Gary Knight, John R. Riesenberger Module 9 Learning Outcomes Discuss the exchange rates and currencies in international business. Discuss the monetary and financial systems. Identify the key players in the monetary and financial systems. 2 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Module 10 Learning Outcomes Define international financial management.
  • 2. Identify the key tasks in international financial management. Describe how to manage the diversity of international accounting and tax practices. 3 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Objectives 9.1 Learn about exchange rates and currencies in international business. 9.2 Explain how exchange rates are determined. 9.3 Understand the emergence of the modern exchange rate system. 9.4 Describe the monetary and financial systems. 9.5 Identify the key players in the monetary and financial systems. 9.6 Understand the global debt crisis. 4 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 3. Outline The European Union and the Euro Exchange Rates and Currencies in International Business How Exchange Rates are Determined Emergence of the Modern Exchange Rate System The Monetary and Financial Systems Key Players in the Monetary and Financial System The Global Debt Crisis Closing Case: Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis 5 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The European Union and the Euro 9-1. What benefits does using a single currency, the euro, provide to European countries? 9-2. What challenges does the European Central Bank face in developing monetary policy for the EU? 9-3. What is the effect of a weak euro on European exporters? What is the effect on European consumers? 6 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and
  • 4. permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. 9-1. What benefits does using a single currency, the euro, provide to European countries? A: 9-2. What challenges does the European Central Bank face in developing monetary policy for the EU? A: 9-3. What is the effect of a weak euro on European exporters? What is the effect on European consumers? A; 6 The European Union and the Euro The European Union (EU) was established in 1992. In 2015, it had 28 member countries. The EU created the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the European Central Bank (ECB) with the goal of establishing a common currency, the euro. In 2002, euro banknotes and coins were issued and replaced older, national currencies. 7 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 5. The European Union and the Euro In 2015, the euro was the sole official currency of 19 EU member states: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain 8 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The European Union and the Euro The ECB treats the eurozone as one region rather than as separate countries with differing economic conditions. ECB monetary policy is complex because of the diverse economic and fiscal conditions that characterize each eurozone country. For example, the ECB aims to keep inflation low by carefully limiting the supply of euros, but the policy response for controlling deflation, just as harmful as inflation, is to increase the money supply. ECB policy aimed at fixing deflation in one country might trigger inflation in another. Devising monetary policy that suits economic conditions in all EMU countries is challenging. 9 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and
  • 6. permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The European Union and the Euro Monetary policy is further complicated by the recent -admission into the EU of lower-income countries such as Slovakia and Slovenia. As more countries join the EU, the risk of very diverse economic conditions across the union rises. Such pressures have increased in Europe’s recent economic crisis, especially in Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The EU plan to assist Greece includes loans and surveillance from the ECB. The crisis has sparked discussion about the risks of EU monetary integration and survival of the euro. 10 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The European Union and the Euro A key goal of launching the euro was to shield EMU countries from exchange rate risk by creating a large, unified economy. Historically, the euro was relatively strong against the U.S. dollar. More recently the euro has weakened. A weak euro helps European exporters because it makes their products less expensive to foreign importers. A weak euro yields stronger earnings for European MNEs when they convert non-euro
  • 7. profits into euros. On the negative side, a weak euro decreases the buying power of European firms and consumers who purchase non-euro foreign goods. 11 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The European Union and the Euro The success of the euro as a unifying force in Europe has changed the international balance of power. The EU and EMU have empowered European governments to challenge U.S. policy initiatives in the wider global arena. The central banks of numerous countries—including Canada, China, and Russia—have given greater weight to the euro in their foreign currency reserves. Some governments are increasing their euro holdings, and Asia is now less dollar- centric than in the past. 12 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Exchange Rates and Currencies in International Business
  • 8. Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies Foreign Exchange Markets Currency Risk Fluctuating exchange rates 13 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Exchange Rates and Currencies in International Business More than 150 currencies are in use around the world today. Cross-border transactions occur through an exchange of these currencies between buyers and sellers. A currency is a form of money and a unit of exchange. Each country prefers using its own unique currency, which complicates international business transactions. When buying a product or service from a Mexican supplier, for example, you must convert your own currency to Mexican pesos to pay the supplier. 14 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 9. Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies The exchange rate—the price of one currency expressed in terms of another—varies over time. A convertible currency can be easily exchanged for other currencies. The most easily convertible are called hard currencies and include the British pound, European euro, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar. They are strong, stable currencies that are universally accepted and used most often for international transactions. 15 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Convertible and Nonconvertible Currencies A currency is nonconvertible when it is not acceptable for international transactions. Some governments may not allow their currency to be converted into a foreign currency. They prevent this conversion to preserve their supply of hard currencies, such as the euro or the U.S. dollar, or to avoid the problem of capital flight. 16 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic,
  • 10. mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Foreign Exchange Markets Money facilitates payment for the products and services that companies sell. Getting paid in your own country is straightforward; the U.S. dollar is accepted throughout the United States, the euro is widely used in Europe, and the Japanese use the yen to transact with each other. But suppose a Canadian needs to pay a Japanese, or a Japanese needs to pay an Italian, or an Italian needs to pay a Canadian. What then? 17 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Foreign Exchange Markets The Japanese wants to be paid in yen, the Italian wants to be paid in euros, and the Canadian wants to be paid in Canadian dollars. All these currencies are known as foreign exchange. Foreign exchange represents all forms of money that are traded internationally, including foreign currencies, bank deposits, checks, and electronic transfers. Foreign exchange resolves the problem of making international payments and facilitates international investment and borrowing among firms, banks, and governments. 18
  • 11. Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Currency Risk In 1999, 11 EU countries switched to the euro, eliminating the problem of exchange rate fluctuations in trade and investment with each other. By 2015, 19 member states were participating in the eurozone. Other countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East have opted to use a regional or hard currency. The challenges posed by fluctuating exchange rates motivate countries to coordinate their monetary policies. Governments attempt to manage exchange rates by buying and selling hard currencies and by keeping inflation under control. However, the foreign exchange market is huge and it shifts very quickly. Even major governments have difficulty controlling exchange rate movements. 19 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Currency Risk Fluctuating exchange rates affect both firms and customers.
  • 12. Suppose today the euro–dollar exchange rate is €1 = $1; that is, for a European to buy one U.S. dollar, he must pay one euro. Next, suppose that during the coming year the exchange rate goes to €1.50 = $1. Now the dollar is much more expensive to European firms and consumers than before—it costs 50 percent more to acquire a dollar. Let’s examine the effect of this change on Europeans. 20 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Effect on European Firms European firms must pay more for inputs from the United States, such as raw materials, components, and support services they use to produce finished products and services. Higher input costs reduce profitability and may force firms to raise prices to final -customers; these higher prices reduce customer demand for goods and services. Because the euro has become less expensive for U.S. consumers, firms can increase their exports to the United States. Firms can even raise their export prices and remain -competitive in the U.S. market. Increased exports to the United States generate higher revenues and higher profits. 21
  • 13. Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Effect on European Consumers Because U.S. products and services now cost more, European consumers demand fewer of them. The cost of living rises for those Europeans who consume many dollar-denominated imports. Fewer European tourists can afford to visit the United States. Fewer European students study at U.S. universities. 22 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Currency Risk In 2014–2015, U.S. companies such as Caterpillar and Microsoft saw dramatic falls in their international sales due to strengthening of the U.S. dollar against world currencies. In the year through June 2015, the dollar rose in value by more than 20 percent against the EU euro and the Japanese yen. Sales at Tiffany’s department store in New York fell nearly 10 percent as a strong U.S. dollar resulted in fewer European
  • 14. tourists visiting the United States. Tiffany’s depends heavily on foreign tourists for sales at its flagship stores. Meanwhile, American tourists flocked to Europe in the summer of 2015 as the dollar hit a 12-year high against the euro. European exports to nations outside the eurozone soared. The cheaper euro made European travel and products a bargain 23 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. How Exchange Rates are Determined Economic Growth Inflation and Interest Rates Market Psychology Government Action 24 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. How Exchange Rates are Determined In a free market, the price of any currency—that is, its exchange
  • 15. rate—is determined by supply and demand. Supply and demand adjust according to market forces. Exchange rates fluctuate constantly because the global market for most major currencies is free and active. Continuous shifts in the supply of and demand for dollars result in continuous changes in the dollar -exchange rate. Some currencies are pegged to fixed exchange rates and, thus, may not respond to market forces. 25 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. How Exchange Rates are Determined All else being equal, The greater the supply of a currency, the lower its price. The lower the supply of a currency, the higher its price. The greater the demand for a currency, the higher its price. The lower the demand for a currency, the lower its price. 26 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 16. How Exchange Rates are Determined Suppose a Canadian consumer wants to buy a BMW, sourced from Germany and priced at the nominal price of 30,000 euros. Assume further that the exchange rate of the euro to the Canadian dollar is €1 = $1.25. Now suppose the consumer delays six months, during which the exchange rate shifts, becoming €1 = $1.50. That is, due to increased demand for and/or decreased supply of euros, the euro has become more expensive to Canadian customers. 27 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. How Exchange Rates are Determined Assuming the euro price of the BMW remains unchanged, the car will now cost more in Canadian dollars, making the consumer less inclined to buy the BMW. By contrast, if, during the six-month period, the euro becomes cheaper (with, say, an exchange rate of €1 = $1), the Canadian consumer will be more inclined to buy the BMW. As this example implies, the greater the demand for a country’s products and services, the greater the demand for its currency. 28 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any
  • 17. prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Economic Growth Economic growth is the increase in value of the goods and services an economy produces. To ensure accuracy, we usually measure economic growth of a nation as the annual increase in real GDP in which the inflation rate is subtracted from the growth rate. To accommodate economic growth, the central bank increases the nation’s money supply. The central bank is the monetary authority in each country that regulates the money supply, issues currency, and manages the exchange rate of the nation’s currency relative to other currencies. Economic growth is associated with an increase in the supply and demand of the nation’s money supply and, by extension, the nation’s currency. Thus, it has a strong influence on the supply and demand for national currencies. For example, recent rapid economic growth in East Asian countries has increased demand for their currencies by firms and individuals, both domestic and foreign. 29 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Inflation and Interest Rates
  • 18. Inflation is an increase in the price of goods and services. When inflation occurs, money buys less than in preceding years. Interest rates and inflation are closely related. In countries with high inflation, interest rates tend to be high because investors expect to be compensated for the inflation-induced decline in the value of their money. If inflation is running at 10 percent, for example, banks must pay more than 10 percent interest to attract customers to open savings accounts. 30 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Inflation and Interest Rates Inflation occurs when demand for money grows more rapidly than supply, or when the central bank increases the nation’s money supply faster than the rise in national productive output. Inflation is often a problem for developing economies and emerging markets. When inflation occurs, the value of the nation’s currency will fall relative to foreign currencies. 31 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or
  • 19. transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Market Psychology Exchange rates are often affected by market psychology, the unpredictable behavior of investors. Herding is the tendency of investors to mimic others’ actions. Momentum trading occurs when investors buy stocks whose prices have been rising and sell stocks whose prices have been falling. Herding and momentum trading tend to occur in the wake of financial crises. Recently, Brazil, Russia, and other emerging markets have experienced large-scale flight of portfolio investment amid concerns about deteriorating economic conditions. Foreign investors have panicked and many have deserted stocks in those countries. 32 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Government Action The pricing of currencies affects company performance. When a nation’s currency is expensive to foreigners, its exports are likely to fall. When a nation’s currency is cheap to foreigners, exports increase. When the value of a nation’s currency depreciates over a
  • 20. prolonged period, consumer and investor confidence can be undermined. Steep currency depreciation weakens the nation’s ability to pay foreign lenders, possibly leading to economic and political crisis. 33 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Government Action To minimize these effects, governments often act to influence the value of their own currencies. The Chinese government regularly intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep the renminbi undervalued, helping to ensure that Chinese exports remain strong. 34 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Government Action
  • 21. An undervalued national currency can result in a trade surplus. A trade surplus arises when a nation’s exports exceed its imports for a specific period of time, causing a net inflow of foreign exchange. By contrast, a trade deficit results when a nation’s imports exceed its exports for a specific period of time, causing a net outflow of foreign exchange. The balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation’s exports and its imports over the course of a year. 35 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Emergence of the Modern Exchange Rate System The Bretton Woods Agreement International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank The Modern Exchange Rate System The Floating Exchange Rate System The Fixed Exchange Rate System 36 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or
  • 22. transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Bretton Woods Agreement This agreement pegged the value of the U.S. dollar to an established value of gold at a rate of $35 per ounce. The U.S. government agreed to buy and sell unlimited amounts of gold to maintain this fixed rate. Each of Bretton Woods’ other signatory countries agreed to establish a par value of its currency in terms of the U.S. dollar and to maintain this pegged value through central bank intervention. In this way, the Bretton Woods system kept exchange rates of major currencies fixed at a prescribed level relative to the U.S. dollar and, therefore, to each other. 37 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Bretton Woods Agreement In the 1960s, however, emergent global economic conditions led to high trade deficits in the United States. Gradually growing demand for U.S. dollars exceeded supply. The U.S. government could no longer maintain an adequate stock of gold. This situation put pressure on governments in Europe, Japan, and the United States to revalue their currencies. As a result, the link between the U.S. dollar and gold was suspended in
  • 23. 1971. The promise to exchange gold for U.S. dollars was withdrawn. This action brought an end to the Bretton Woods system. 38 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Bretton Woods Agreement The Bretton Woods agreement left a legacy of principles and institutions that remain in use today. Specifically, Bretton Woods established: the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The IMF is an international agency that attempts to stabilize currencies by monitoring the foreign exchange systems of member countries and lending money to developing economies. The World Bank is an international agency that provides loans and technical assistance to low- and middle-income countries, with the goal of -reducing poverty. 39 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 24. The Modern Exchange Rate System Today most major currencies are traded freely, with their value floating according to the forces of supply and demand. The official price of gold was formally abolished. Governments became free to choose the type of exchange rate system that best suited their individual needs. Fixed exchange rate systems were given equal status with floating exchange rate systems. The exchange rate system today consists of two main types of foreign exchange management: the floating system and the fixed system. 40 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Floating Exchange Rate System Most -advanced economies use the floating exchange rate system. Currency values are determined by market forces. Major world currencies—including the British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen—float independently on world exchange markets. Their exchange rates are determined daily by supply and -demand. The floating system gives governments the flexibility to modify monetary policy to fit the circumstances they face at any time. 41
  • 25. Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Fixed Exchange Rate System This approach is similar to the system used under the Bretton Woods agreement and is sometimes called a pegged exchange rate system. Using this system, the value of a currency is set relative to the value of another (or to the value of a basket of currencies) at a specified rate. As this reference value rises and falls, so does the currency pegged to it. In the past, some currencies were also fixed to some set value of gold. 42 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Fixed Exchange Rate System Many developing economies and some emerging markets use the fixed system today. China pegs its currency to the value of a basket of currencies. Belize pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar. To maintain the peg,
  • 26. the governments of China and Belize, for instance, will intervene in currency markets to buy and sell dollars and other currencies to maintain the exchange rate at a fixed, preset level. A fixed regime promotes greater stability and predictability of exchange rate movements and helps stabilize a nation’s economy. The central bank must stand ready to fill any gaps between supply and demand for its currency. 43 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Monetary and Financial Systems International Monetary System Global Financial System Causes of integration of financial and monetary activity The evolution of monetary and financial regulations worldwide. The development of new technologies and payment systems and the use of the Internet in global financial activities. Increased global and regional interdependence of financial markets. The growing role of single-currency systems, such as the euro. 44 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or
  • 27. transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. International Monetary System The international monetary system consists of the institutional frameworks, rules, and procedures that govern how national currencies are exchanged for one another. By providing a framework for the monetary and foreign exchange activities of firms and governments worldwide, the system facilitates international trade and investment. 45 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Global Financial System The global financial system consists of the collective financial institutions that facilitate and regulate flows of investment and capital funds worldwide. Key players in the system include finance ministries, national stock exchanges, commercial banks, central banks, the Bank for International Settlements, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. 46 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All
  • 28. rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Causes of integration of financial and monetary activity The growing integration of financial and monetary activity worldwide has several causes, including: The evolution of monetary and financial regulations worldwide. The development of new technologies and payment systems and the use of the Internet in global financial activities. Increased global and regional interdependence of financial markets. The growing role of single-currency systems, such as the euro. 47 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Key Players in the Monetary and Financial Systems 48 Exhibit 9.4 Key Participants and Relationships in the Global Monetary and Financial Systems (Cavusgil, 2016, p.242)
  • 29. Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Firm As companies engage in international trade and are paid by their customers abroad, they typically acquire large quantities of foreign exchange and must convert them to the currency of the home country. Firms also engage in investment, franchising, and licensing activities abroad that generate revenues they must exchange for their home currency. For example, Jim Moran Enterprises in Florida, the largest importer of Toyota cars in the United States, imports thousands of cars every year and must ultimately pay for them in Japanese yen. Moran deals with the foreign exchange market to convert U.S. dollars to yen. 49 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. National Stock Exchanges and Bond Markets A stock exchange is a facility for trading securities and other financial instruments, including shares issued by companies,
  • 30. trust funds, pension funds, and corporate and government bonds. Information technology has revolutionized the functioning of stock markets, greatly reducing the speed and cost of transactions. Today, many exchanges are electronic networks not necessarily tied to a fixed location. Each country sets its own rules for issuing and redeeming stock. 50 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Commercial Banks Banks are important players in the global financial sector. They raise funds by attracting deposits, borrowing money in the interbank market, or issuing financial instruments in the global money market or securities markets. Commercial banks—for example, Bank of America, Mizuho Bank in Japan, and BBVA in Spain—operate at the most essential level of the international monetary system. They circulate money and engage in a wide range of international financial transactions. Banks are regulated by national and local governments, which have a strong interest in ensuring the solvency of their national banking system. 51 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All
  • 31. rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Commercial Banks The many types of banks and their primary activities include the following: Investment banks underwrite (guarantee the sale of) stock and bond issues and advise on mergers, such as the merger of Goldman Sachs in the United States and Nomura Securities in Japan. Merchant banks provide capital to firms in the form of shares rather than loans. They are essentially investment banks that specialize in international operations. They do not provide regular banking services to the general public. The Arab- Malaysian Merchant Bank is an example. 52 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Commercial Banks Private banks manage the assets of the very rich. Union Bank in Switzerland (UBS) and ABN AMRO Private Banking in Luxembourg are examples. Offshore banks are located in jurisdictions with low taxation
  • 32. and regulation, such as Switzerland and Bermuda. Banco General in Panama and Bank of Nova Scotia in the British Virgin Islands are examples. Commercial banks deal mainly with corporations or large businesses. Credit Lyonnais in France and Bank of America are examples. 53 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Central Banks As the official national bank of each country, the central bank regulates the money supply and credit, issues currency, and manages the rate of exchange. The central bank also seeks to ensure the safety and soundness of the national financial system by supervising and regulating the ­nation’s banking system. A key goal is to keep price inflation low. 54 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 33. The Bank for International Settlements Based in Basel, Switzerland, the Bank for International Settlements is an international organization that fosters cooperation among central banks and other governmental agencies. It provides banking services to central banks and assists them in devising sound monetary policy. It seeks to support stability in the global monetary and financial systems and help governments avoid becoming too indebted. It also attempts to ensure that central banks maintain reserve assets and capital/asset ratios above prescribed international minimums. 55 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. International Monetary Fund Headquartered in Washington, DC, the IMF provides the framework of and determines the code of behavior for the international monetary system. The agency promotes international monetary cooperation, exchange rate stability, and orderly exchange arrangements and encourages countries to adopt sound economic policies. These functions are critical because economic crises can destroy jobs, slash incomes, and cause human suffering. 56
  • 34. Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The World Bank Originally known as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank was founded to fund reconstruction of Japan and Europe after World War II. Today it aims to reduce world poverty and is active in various development projects to bring water, electricity, and transportation infrastructure to poor countries. Headquartered in Washington, DC, the bank is a specialized agency of the United Nations, with more than one hundred offices worldwide. 57 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Global Debt Crisis Fiscal imbalances are an important source of risk and uncertainty in the global business environment Debt has substantially increased in major advanced economies
  • 35. … by excessive government spending and insufficient revenues Bottom line: Without significant adjustments, most -advanced economies face serious threats to fiscal solvency 58 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Global Debt Crisis Governments spent huge sums of borrowed money in the latest global recession to bail out financial systems and reduce recessionary pressures. Governments face unfunded liabilities of pension and health care programs. Japan, the United States, numerous countries in Europe, and others are suffering under the weight of excessive government debt. Since 2012, credit rating agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have downgraded the sovereign debt ratings of several European countries to reflect their susceptibility to growing financial and monetary risks. 59 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 36. The Global Debt Crisis Research shows that national debt that exceeds 90 percent of a nation’s GDP tends to diminish GDP growth, which exacerbates government debt. As the government tries to pay down its debt, money is drawn out of the national money supply. This hinders economic activity and reduces tax revenues. In the past few years, numerous countries have surpassed the 90 percent threshold, including Japan, the United States, and several countries in Europe. The International Monetary Fund and other agencies have stated that, without significant adjustments, most -advanced economies face serious threats to fiscal solvency in the long-run. 60 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Closing Case Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis 61 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.
  • 37. 9-4. Explain the advantages and disadvantages of the globalization of finance. How did it contribute to the global financial crisis? A: 9-5. Describe how the fall of AIG exemplifies contagion. How did the U.S. government bailout of AIG benefit foreign as well as U.S. firms and investors? Experts are advocating increased regulation to prevent contagion. At the national and international levels, what types of regulation might prevent future crises? A: 9-6. Several European countries have adopted a single currency, the euro. Describe how adopting the euro might benefit countries in Eastern Europe. What are the advantages and disadvantages of a single currency regime in international financial transactions? A: 9-7. As the world emerges from the global financial crisis, what is the potential role of each of the following: firms, banks, central banks, national governments, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank? What is the role of national governments in stimulating national economic growth? A: 61 Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis Growing integration of financial and monetary sectors of the world’s economies is an important aspect of globalization. The
  • 38. globalization of finance is characterized by massive cross- national flows of money and capital and the development of a giant foreign exchange market. National financial markets are increasingly interdependent. Every day around the world, firms access global capital markets. Banks and brokers move huge sums across national borders through pensions, mutual funds, life insurance, and other investments. Among numerous benefits, financial globalization increases savings and reduces capital costs in developing economies. 62 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis In 2008, a financial crisis began in the United States and quickly spread around the world. The crisis arose because investors lost confidence in the value of thousands of home mortgages, and commercial banks, mortgage lenders, and insurance companies became unstable. Stock markets crashed and many national economies sank into recession. 63 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or
  • 39. transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Financial Contagion and the Global Financial Crisis The crisis spread to Europe. European banks were drawn into the financial crisis in part because of their exposure to defaulted mortgages in the U.S. The crisis also spread to emerging economies such as Iceland and Russia that generally lacked the resources to restore confidence in their economic systems. 64 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The Crisis in Emerging Markets Eastern Europe is often characterized by a dangerous combination of devalued local currencies and mounting foreign currency debt. This occurs because, as they participate in the global economy, such countries as Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic must use hard currencies, or widely recognized foreign exchange. Many homeowners in Poland pay their monthly mortgages in zlotys (Poland’s national currency), but because the loans often originate in Britain, Germany, or the United States, they ultimately must be paid in pounds, euros, or dollars. As currencies in Eastern Europe lose value, nations in the
  • 40. region struggle to pay their foreign debt. 65 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The IMF and the World Bank In the wake of the financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund stepped up efforts to foster cooperation, stability, and economic growth around the world. The IMF provided more than $100 billion in loans and credit to emerging countries hit by falling demand for their exports, collapsing financial markets, and wary consumers. For example, the IMF committed lending to Hungary, Iceland, Poland, and Ukraine. In 2009, Mexico was granted a credit line worth $47 billion. Similarly, the World Bank provided financial aid and technical assistance to numerous developing economies. 66 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. The IMF and the World Bank
  • 41. The Bank provides grants and low-interest loans to poor countries for investments in education, health, infrastructure, and private sector development. For example, the Bank loaned millions to El Salvador and other Latin American countries to buffer against the global financial crisis. In Africa, the Bank provided millions to finance highway construction and other infrastructure development. At the same time, however, though IMF and World Bank loans help struggling economies, they are yet another form of debt in a debt-fueled crisis and a debt-ridden world. 67 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Summary Exchange rates and currencies in international business How exchange rates are determined Emergence of the modern exchange rate system The monetary and financial systems Key players in the monetary and financial systems The global debt crisis 68 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic,
  • 42. mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. 68 Assignments and Reminders Critical Thinking Assignment Mod 9 Discussion Board Mod 10 Quiz Modules 9 & 10 CYU’s 69 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Critical Thinking Assignment Explain the causes of the global financial and economic crisis that started in the U.S. in 2007. What effect did it have on the global economy? How did the global economy recover? What kind of fiscal and monetary policies were implemented? What are the challenges that remain for the global economy? 70 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or
  • 43. transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Next Live Session Our next live session will be on March 19 2019 at 7 pm KSA. 71 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Your Questions Need clarification? Ask your questions! 72 Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. Status Check How is the course proceeding? What can I help you with? 73
  • 44. Copyright © 2017, 2014, 2012 by Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.