Presentation at online conference Beijing University of \technology 21 October 2020

1. COVID-19 AND THE
RANKINGS
Richard Holmes

2. QUESTIONS
• Is Covid-19 unique or is it just accelerating current trends?
• What will happen to online learning, student mobility, declining enrolments,
financial problems?
• How will it impact on rankings
• What will it mean for trends in ranking methodology

3. ONLINE LEARNING
• The virus and the response to it are mostly accelerating changes that were on the
way already
• Online learning has a long ancestry – correspondence schools, open universities,
distance learning -- and has developed slowly – but definitely booming now
• But accelerated in 2020 – Malaysian universities entirely online. UK mixed, private
Nigerian universities online (govt universities on strike), Canada nearly all online
and probably winter semester as well

4. CONTINUED
• Probably here to stay but not popular – universities may need to move at least
partly to F2F teaching to remain competitive
• Previous research seems to suggest that on average OL produces better outcomes
but there may be significant class inequalities – NY county low income and students
of colour twice as likely to attend school remotely
• Chinese students in Canada and Nigerian students negative

5. INTERNATIONAL STUDENT MOBILITY
• interruption to international student mobility
• Research by QS shows many students are staying away
• Some may never return
• Local students are staying away as well

6. ADMISSIONS
• Decline of standardised testing and public examinations
• US universities are dropping SAT/ACT and GRE
• Universities will be less selective academically
• Less well prepared – many secondary students unable or unwilling to take
advantage of remote learning
• Combined with difficulties in adjusting to online education and anxiety about the
virus and lockdowns, the first year is likely to be very unpleasant

7. FINANCE
• universities need students, at least their grants and loans
• Without them there will be savage cuts all over
• At a time when the whole economy is suffering state support will inevitably decline

8. CONTINUED
• In the USA college sports are disappearing – drop in alumni contributions
• Universities will have to make hard choices
• Downsize, close, merge, become less pretentious institutions

9. HOW LONG?
• Maybe there will be an effective vaccine in the new year, the virus will mutate, herd
immunity achieved, and/or a v shaped recovery
• At present these seem unlikely
• It is also possible that more black swans will be on the way
• Maybe we will be back to square one at the end of 2021
• Otherwise things are going to be painful

10. REFLECTED IN RANKINGS?
• Nothing much will happen in the rankings right away
• Most rankings have safeguards against sudden fluctuations
• Four or five years for bibliometric indicators, eleven for National Taiwan University
• Surveys averaged over 2 or 5 years

11. CONTINUED
• The Shanghai rankings are famous for counting long dead Nobel and Fields
laureates
• Citations are the culmination of a process that begins half a decade or more with a
grant proposal

12. CONTINUED
• Rankings published in 2021 will normally use institutional data submitted for 2019
• So don’t expect the rankings to change immediately
• Claims next year that the virus or government policy is affecting the rankings are
likely to be grossly exaggerated

13. HOW LONG WILL THE CRISIS LAST?
• Maybe (Louise Nicol) Australia (or some places) will be the student mobility
comeback kid
• Maybe it will take (Simon Marginson) five or ten years to recover
• Or maybe the influx of Asian students, mainly Chinese, was the result of historical
trends that will never come again

14. WHEN WILL THE RANKINGS BE
AFFECTED?
• Won’t be a big impact until 2022 at the earliest
• If methods remain unchanged and institutions are honest
• But eventually universities reliant on international students will suffer in the QS and
THE rankings
• Universities with reduced income will suffer in the THE and RUR rankings

15. CONTINUED
• Eventually, it is likely that shortage of funds and poor work conditions will lead
talented researchers to leave western universities and go to Asia, the Middle East or
the private industrial sector
• Causing a decline in publications, patents and citations
• We can expect the long anticipated surpassing of America by China will finally arrive

16. WILL RANKERS BE AFFECTED?
• Rankings themselves are also going to be affected
• QS and THE will lose their summit income, others will lose consultation fees and
advertising
• Possibly some rankers will shut down – universities with staff needed elsewhere
• Decline of international mobility – national and regional rankings will be more
important – already THE is promoting Japanese, European and US teaching rankings

17. CONTINUED
• THE has postponed again much anticipated reforms
• May have considered amalgamating its world and impact rankings
• Speculation – are THE thinking of dropping the world rankings and just having
national/ regional rankings and impact rankings?

18. POSSIBLE FUTURE TRENDS IN
RANKINGS
• Rankers will look for ways assessing online learning
• Will look for ways to measure contributions to social mobility and sustainability
• Less emphasis on international orientation
• Fewer demands for data from universities
• More emphasis on international research collaboration

19. WILL RANKINGS COME UNDER
SCRUTINY?
• Rankings were originally met with general scepticism
• But have been embraced, at least publicly, by administrators and the media
• It is unlikely that public acceptance will persist unless there are some serious
changes in methodology and presentation

20. CONTINUED
• There are signs that researchers and teachers are becoming more resistant to
rankings
• A lot of criticism, sometimes extravagant, in social media
• More thoughtful approach in the Berlin Principles, Leiden Manifesto

21. INORMS: RATING THE RANKERS
• New initiative from INORMS Research Evaluation Working Group
• Rating the Rankers
• Pilot project but promising
• Rating according to four values
• Good governance , measure what matters, transparency and rigour
• No ranking is perfect, room for improvement

22. TO SUMMARISE
Universities are entering a period of great disruption and uncertainty
This will not show up in the rankings immediately
But eventually problems will be detected by the rankings
Rankings will have a serious responsibility to record changes accurately
They are likely to come under increasing and informed scrutiny over the next few
years