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Matthew Pipes
POL 340-01
Professor Katherine Chu
May 1st, 2014
Zimbabwe: The Bullet is Mightier Than the Pen
The regime that has been set up by Robert Mugabe since he assumed power in 1980 has looted
the nations wealth, and mismanaged the nation enough to cause it to become a state stricken with
starvation when it was once considered the breadbasket of Africa. The Mugabe family has repeatedly
raided the central bank of funds for international travel, spending sprees in the worlds most popular
shopping centers, large entourages when they travel, and a standard of living far outside the reach of
average Zimbabweans, in fact Robert Mugabe is almost twice the average age that the average
Zimbabwean lives to be. In 2008 an election occurred during terrible economic conditions.
Unemployment was close to 80% and hyperinflation was so bad that bread was worth $30 billion
Zimbabwean dollars.1 It is a widely acceptable truth that when economies suffer the party in power is
the one the people blame, barring some sort of foreign intervention. When the people went to vote in
March of 2008 they voted that they wanted Morgan Tsvangirai and his party, the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC), to lead the nation. Robert Mugabe and his party Zimbabwe African
National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) initially won 43% of the vote and Morgan Tsvangirai
received 48% of the vote. The MDC claims that they won an outright majority in the first round of
voting and that Morgan Tsvangirai was rightfully elected president and no runoff was needed. They
accuse the government of manipulating the vote to give the impression a runoff was necessary, and in
the mean time before the second round of voting they could change the calculus on the ground to
produce a win for Mugabe. During the time between the initial vote and the run-off the government
1 Duggar, Celia.In a Crackdown,ZimbabweCurbs Many Aid Groups The New York Times Johannesburg June4th,2008

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embarked on a campaign of violence and terror against those it thought had voted for Tsangirai, worked
for his election, or were influential supporters. International monitors were brought in but it did nothing
to stop the violence, even after the election. When the election finally happened enough polling station
monitors associated with the MDC had been killed or scared into not showing up that the boxes holding
cast ballots were easily manipulated, and intimidated supporters of the MDC did not show up to vote.
The intimidation of the opposition did not end with the election, but has become a common occurrence
in today's Zimbabwe. In the end 85 people had been confirmed killed, thousands were severely injured,
and countless more were displaced.2 it should be no surprise that after such a campaign of intimidation
that Robert Mugabe was re-elected in the runoff and went on to further consolidate his rule in the 2012
elections. The two leaders went on the form a unity government, but the power given to Tsvangirai was
impossible to exercise or completely ignored by Mugabe. Many considered Mugabe’s old age a factor
in why Tsvangirai accepted the supposed power sharing condition, hoping that if he died while still
president that Tsvangirai could be a suitable replacement.3 The campaign of intimidation against the
opposition was so successful, but why? If this regime is also so impenetrable what are the hopes for
change, and what does that change look like?
The campaign of intimidation against opposition was so successful that it got Morgan
Tsvangirai to drop out of the race five days before it was to take place. When doing so he cited attacks
on his supports by militias supported by the government saying that he could not ask more of his
supporters to die in an election rife with fraud. He later describes at a news conference that his party
was facing a war as opposed to a free and fair election.4 during the campaign season Tsvangirai
himself was targeted and detained many times. The chief political strategist was jailed on trumped up
2 Duggar, Celia.MUGABE'S RIVAL QUITS RUNOFF, CITING ATTACKS The NewYork Times Johannesburg June23rd 2008
3Rotberg, Robert. Mugabe ÜberAlles: The Tyranny ofUnity in Zimbabwe. Foreign Affairs,Vol.89, No. 4 (July/August2010), pp. 10-18
4 Duggar, Celia.MUGABE'S RIVAL QUITS RUNOFF, CITING ATTACKS The NewYork Times Johannesburg June23rd 2008

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treason charges, presumably for doing his job so well.5 The Fraud and political violence was so bad the
election observers did not endorse it and encouraged other neighboring nations not to endorse the
election before it had even occurred. The language used by Mugabe incited his supporters to violence.
They tried to make the opposition feel weak by using belittling language about them, even going as far
as to accuse Tsvangirai of being a chicken after he dropped out of the race. The belittling language also
served to embolden supporters and to view the opposition as people that they could push around and
bully. Mugabe also labeled the MDC as pawns of the British and other colonial powers, a harsh
political accusation considering Zimbabwe's past with colonial rule. Mugabe also blatantly said he
would never allow himself to be replaced by Tsvangirai through voting, and that he would have to be
forcibly removed from power. This attitude was reflected in slogans repeated by pro government
militias. They could frequently be seen chanting “win or war”, which left no room to wonder what it
will actually take to get Robert Mugabe out of power in Zimbabwe. 6
In an attempt to give some credence to the idea that the MDC was a tool of foreign powers, the
government clamped down on foreign aid organizations that distribute food and medical supplies. It
made the claim that the aid groups were helping the MDC with funding, organization, and voter
outreach. Both the MDC and the accused aid group denied that they were at all involved in election
activities, and the government never supplied the evidence of such involvement. The government
proceeded anyway to make the accusation and even acted to limit the ability of those aid groups to
operate in the country. The government even went as far as to summon the local heads of these
organizations to threaten them with military and police personnel present.7 the aid organizations were
specifically ordered not to speak about being forced to withdraw from the country, but also to only
travel at night. Many of the worst atrocities would occur during the night so it was assumed that this
5 Duggar, Celia.MUGABE'S RIVAL QUITS RUNOFF, CITING ATTACKS The NewYork Times Johannesburg June23rd 2008
6 Duggar, Celia.MUGABE'S RIVAL QUITS RUNOFF, CITING ATTACKS The NewYork Times Johannesburg June23rd 2008
7 Duggar, Celia.In a Crackdown,ZimbabweCurbs Many Aid Groups The New York Times Johannesburg June 4th, 2008

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restriction was not for their own safety, but so they could not be witnesses to the mass violence
occurring during the night. By not allowing the aid agencies to distribute food and medical supplies
there was then a massive gap to be filled which the government stepped in to do. Leading up to the
election they used the distribution of food and supplies to gain support from contested areas, reward
areas of strong support for the government, and to punish the areas supporting the opposition. In
making the opposition appear to be a tool of the former colonial powers it gave the sense to
government supporters that this election was about the survival of the state which had been created
after a long war for independence. This line of attack was very successful as many of the Mugabe
supporters believed it, and it fueled their hatred for the other side and the violence they directed
towards them.
Many of the opposition supporters were physically attacked. These attacks were not so much
supposed to stop the actions of the specific individuals they target, but to get many other similar
individuals to give up their work against the government. If you kill one very well known leader then
many others will be intimidated as well. After the killing of several of the most well known and
effective individuals in the MDC most of the essential members of the MDC either fled the country or
went into hiding, because of the reasonable assumption that they too could be killed for their political
actions. No attempt is made to hide these people have been killed or by whom, the people killed are
often done so by people shouting pro-government slogans. The bodies are bumped in public areas so
they are easily found and the news can travel of their murder. Often times the bodies exhibit signs of
torture and massive trauma occurring before death.
In the countryside during the middle of the night militias will surround a town and order
everyone to the main square. The suspected supporters of the opposition are then beaten or killed in
front of the rest of the town.8 This is intended to not only punish the supporters of the opposition and to
8Bearak,Barry and Dugger,Celia.As Zimbabwe's ElectionNears,Assassins Aim at theGrass Roots TheNewYork Times Johannesburg June22,2008

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encourage them to not vote in the upcoming election, but also to intimidate anyone considering
supporting the opposition. The people who were beaten and lashed by the government militias were
then at times charged a “repentance fee” in order to be set free.9 This was likely not on government
orders but done by the local militias looking to take something for themselves in all the chaos. The
mayor of the capital Harare's wife and child were kidnapped and his wife murdered and the home
firebombed. When his wife's body was discovered her face had been so badly beaten she was
unrecognizable. The campaign of violence was very calculated to change the numbers of votes cast in
the direction of MDC towards ZANU-PF. The military, police, and ,militias would concentrate their
efforts in areas that at one time or another were strongholds of the government but had been won by the
MDC or where the MDC had over performed. Horrific acts of violence were directed at MDC
supporters, such as being buried alive, burnt alive, shot to death, or tortured to death. Many of the
deaths were unable to be confirmed because of limitations on foreign organizations, and most of the
murders occurred at night or in the countryside far from any international observers.
Robert Mugabe shows no sign of being whiling to even share power with any sort of opposition
as long as he is alive. Elections are unlikely to unseat him. It is unlikely another opposition campaign
will ever get as close as Tsvangirai's did, and it is unlikely to see another round of violence due to
contested elections. From now on ahead of time the ZANU-PF is likely to falsify voter rolls ahead of
time,intimidate opposition supporters with violence, and have a fraudulent vote counting process.
There is no independent media, and the people of the Zimbabwe get their news mostly through
government sources. The largest mineral deposits are being robbed by the military and government
elite, and manufacturing and exports have come to a halt because the power and water systems are too
unreliable. Most of the skilled laborers have fled the country, and transportation infrastructure is
ineffective to the point of counterproductive. The local currency is worthless, so most Zimbabweans
9Bearak,Barry and Dugger,Celia.As Zimbabwe's ElectionNears,Assassins Aim at theGrass Roots TheNewYork Times Johannesburg June22,2008

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resort to bartering for goods and the black market. The regime skims profits off the top of profitable
mines to the point that they close instead of helping to build a large middle class. The land that once
produced the most food in Africa once again is beginning to produce food. That is because Chinese
state owned firms have become very close with the Mugabe regime and have been allowed to purchase
the land and begin growing food on it again. The food though is not going to be fed to the starving
population of Zimbabwe, rather it will go to China's ballooning population instead. Mugabe as well
enjoys the blessings of his most powerful neighbor South Africa, who's president views Mugabe as an
elder statesmen and a valued Anti-colonialist. There is little chance of revolution toppling the
government from the inside. Tsvangirai believes any uprising of protest would be met with mass
violence that would kill thousands.10
So what are the options of the international community and the opposition to free the country
from his ineffective rule. Tsvangirai was the prime minister of the government up to 2013. He may not
be inside the government anymore but he does appear to be the strongest contender for the position. In
the event that Mugabe were to die in office,which is not at all unlikely considering he is 90 years old, it
is not all together clear that power would be immediately transferred to Tsvangirai. Many elements of
the ZANU-PF would want to try to hold onto power. The defense minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is
closely associated with the Chinese interests in the country, and has the loyalty of many inside the
military, giving him both the financial support and the weaponry needed to assume power. Other
generals could attempt to assume power, as well as Robert Mugabe's wife Grace Mugabe. The MDC
with Tsvangirai as their leader has won all of the elections since 2000 and can claim vast popular
appeal. In the event of a chaotic situation following the collapse of the regime, the MDC is hoping that
foreign nations would intervene on their behalf preferring a peaceful Tsvangirai succession to a chaotic
10 Rotberg, Robert. MugabeÜber Alles: TheTyranny ofUnity inZimbabwe.Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 4 (July/August 2010), pp. 10-18

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power vacuum. 11 in the short term though, Zimbabwe is a land locked country and the Mugabe family
travels outside of the country a lot, as well as Robert Mugabe himself. He travels to South Africa
frequently for medical treatment. The United States and many European nations have put travel
restrictions on Robert Mugabe himself and many of the people holding high positions in the regime. If
the local nations were to not allow those same top officials to fly over their country then they would be
land locked inside Zimbabwe unable to do all the things one can do with international travel. Mugabe
himself would be unable to travel to foreign countries to get medical treatment and would be forced
into the Zimbabwean health care system he created for his own citizens. It is unlikely that he would be
able to get as good treatment inside Zimbabwe as he could get abroad and it could hasten his death.
After that it would be up to the neighboring nations to assume control of the country and install the
MDC as the legitimate government. This seems unlikely even in a chaotic transition after Mugabe's
death. Knowing there is the chance of foreign intervention the ZANU-PF is likely to keep the
succession process in-house and peaceful. It is very likely the NAU-PF will continue to rule long after
Mugabe's death. Their appeal is not in Mugabe himself but the ideology he espouses. Someone with
similar charisma and appeal could carry the same message in Zimbabwe and see similar result. The
media is tightly controlled with no freedom of the press. The information the people know is for the
most part only what government news sources put out, considering internet access is so limited and
what access they have is severely censored. Many of the young and unemployed youths have their
anger directed toward the opposition by the government by accusing them of being part of the
conspiracy against them by the former colonial powers, and return them to white rule. The ZANU-PF
has their roots in the struggle against British colonial rule and can easily drape themselves in the flag of
African nationalism. With the few white farmers left in the area they can still use them to rouse the
anger and suspicion of the people in the colonial powers. The National Youth Service or Green
11 Rotberg, Robert. MugabeÜber Alles: TheTyranny ofUnity inZimbabwe.Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 4 (July/August 2010), pp. 10-18

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Bombers is an organization made up of men aged 10-30. The men are trained as a militia and are
typically activated around elections, to enforce a ZANU-PF win. None of this is Exclusive to Mugabe,
although he does play a key role in all of them, and someone else similar to him could carry on in his
place after his death. So how do you get rig of regime like this in Zimbabwe, or others like it in
Belarus or North Korea? The United States invaded a similar regime in Iraq and was left juggle the
pieces for 8 years. In Libya NATO assisted the rebels in ousting another similar regime, and the people
of Syria are trying something similar. The lesson the world should learn from Morgan Tsvangirai's
experience is that there is no negotiating with Mugabe, but also with these types of dictators. Sanctions
can be put on them and they can be isolated from the rest of the world, but it will be that isolation that
gives the rest of the world no leverage over the decision makers inside Zimbabwe.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bearak, Barry and Dugger, Celia. As Zimbabwe's Election Nears, Assassins Aim at the Grass Roots
The New York Times Johannesburg June 22, 2008
Duggar, Celia. In a Crackdown, Zimbabwe Curbs Many Aid Groups The New York Times
Johannesburg June 4th, 2008
Duggar, Celia. MUGABE'S RIVAL QUITS RUNOFF, CITING ATTACKS The New York Times
Johannesburg June 23rd 2008
Rotberg, Robert. Mugabe Über Alles: The Tyranny of Unity in Zimbabwe. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No.
4 (July/August 2010), pp. 10-18